Market Update: Big $ RC Year Card Sales in August

There have been some pretty big $ sales this month for various players' high-end RC year cards. Here's a list of a few of them:

• 94 SP A Rodriguez Holoview D/C - $1,644.00
• 01 BC J Peavy Gold Ref #'d 50 - $246.50
• 01 SPx Ichiro Auto/Jsy - $854.99
• 03 DE EE R Howard TOTC Auto #'d 100 - $658.40
  
• 04 BS S Kazmir Red Ref #'d 1/1 - $520.00
• 04 BB F Hernandez Green Auto /50 - $243.50
  
• 05 SPx P Fielder Platinum Auto #'d 10 - $416.50

The abbreviations used above are BC = Bowman Chrome, DE EE = Donruss Elite Extra Edition, BS = Bowman Sterling and BB = Bowman's Best.

It was the first time that I had ever seen a Red refractor from the 04 Bowman Sterling set, or a Green Auto from 04 Bowman's Best. An 04 Bowman Sterling Scott Kazmir Black Ref #'d 25 sold that same week for $150.96 TAC.

Card Pricing Update: ARod's SP RC; The Ryan Braun Phenomena

During the time between Alex Rodriguez's 499th & 500th career HR, his 94 SP RC sold for an average TAC price of around $101. For the week after he hit his 500th (during which he hit HR #501-503), his SP RC was averaging around $107; a very modest 6% rise. Now, the 2nd week after his 500th, that same RC has dropped down to $88 TAC. What happened? This month, he's hitting .383 with a .466 OBP, and is averaging a HR every 11.75 at-bats, in addition to leading the majors in HR & RBI and helping his team to a 10-4 record through 8/15. Is that not enough? I guess the bar is set quite high for ARod, so he really needs to provide that "wow-factor" in order to maintain his RC card values.

Ryan Braun's RC cards, on the other hand, don't seem to have a brake pedal. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto's average TAC in June was $41.70. In July, it jumped to $74.00, and in August, $84.40. Expect to pay around $100 TAC for it now. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto has been even crazier. It went from an average of $79.00 in June, to $153.00 in July, to $174.00 in August. I saw one sell yesterday for a record amount of $220.25 TAC. Don't even ask about his various Chrome refractor parallels. He BC Blue Ref Auto #'d 150 is averaging $571.00 per pop this month. Every week I think that his card prices are going to level out, but then they jump even higher. If you didn't buy into Braun a couple of months ago, then you missed to boat (I missed it also).

Team Focus: The Potent offense of the Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers, this year's "Cinderella team", have shown that they possess one of the most potent offenses in the majors, leading all teams in home runs, with 160. As a team, they're hitting a HR every 25.36 at-bats. How many teams have 5 players who, at this point in the season, combining for 115 HR? None. Of course the players I'm talking about are Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart & Geoff Jenkins. Together, they're hitting a HR every 16.03 at-bats.

The only other teams with 5 players hitting over 100 home runs are the Reds (109), Phillies (107), Yankees (101) and Marlins (101).

Fielder & Braun have already caught hobby fire, Jenkins had some time in the limelight several years ago but lacks any desirable RC's, and I consider Hart a risky investment. Hardy is probably the best deal for collectors/investors to buy into right now. I like his 02 UD USA Auto #'d 375, which averaged in the $60+ TAC range in June, but has fallen since to the $25-30 range now. Prime time to buy!

Player Focus: Magglio Ordonez

Magglio Ordonez is having a career season at the plate, hitting a major league-leading .358. He's on track to have 200+ hits and 140+ RBI this season (both firsts for his career). So far, August could be his best month, with him batting .452 with 5 HR, 14 RBI & .511 OBP through 8/12.

As far as the hobby is concerned, Ordonez's cards haven't been in big demand for a while. Even now, with him hitting so well, his cards are selling at affordable price levels. His only rookie year Autos can be found in 98 Donruss Sig (Red /3200, Green /1000 & Blue /100). I saw one of his Green (Millenium Marks) Donruss Sig Autos sell today for $25.50 TAC.

If you're gonna invest in Ordonez, I would suggest sticking to his 3 Autos mentioned above, or his serial #'d cards from '98 (i.e. Bowman Chrome Golden Anniversary #'d 50, Bowman's Best Ref #'d 400 or Atomic Ref #'d 100, ...), since #'d RC's weren't as common back then and should appreciate more than those with unknown production numbers.

Player Focus: Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard may not be on track to hit 58 HR & 149 RBI like he did last year, but his production is definitely improving each month as the season moves forward. In April he hit 3 HR & 13 RBI, in May 6 HR & 17 RBI, in June 10 HR & 27 RBI and in July 10 HR & 29 RBI. So far his August numbers look pretty similar to June & July.

His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC, which once garnered well over $500, has been averaging in the $370-390 range over the past couple of months. Now that Howard is back in the HR race (and leading the NL in RBI), collectors are again starting to push his coveted Auto RC up in value. So far in August, I've seen sales in the $410-460 TAC range. His 01 UD Prospect Premiers XRC hasn't seen much change in value recently. It's been averaging around $24 TAC for the past couple weeks, and has been in $20-27 TAC range for a few months now.

I expect prices to continue their ascent as long as he maintains his current HR/RBI pace. One area that he needs to improve in is strike-outs though. He embarrassingly leads the majors with 137, and goes down swinging (or looking) every 2.63 at-bats.

Player Focus: Hanley Ramirez

When you talk about lead off hitters, hobby heavyweights like Ichiro, Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore & Jose Reyes automatically come to mind. But the one that might be having the best season of them all is the Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez. This 23-year-old shortstop is batting a NL-leading .341, with 21 HR, 59 RBI & 37 SB through 8/12.

Ramirez, the ‘06 NL ROY, has only had one month so far this season with a below .300 batting average (.279 in May), and was on fire in July, hitting .424. He is a part of a talented group of 20-somethings on this Florida Marlins roster, which also includes Miguel Cabrera, Dan Uggla & Josh Willingham. Unfortunately for the Marlins, these guys’ hot hitting hasn’t been enough to overcome the team’s terrible rotation performance. Starting pitchers have a combined 5.13 ERA.

His best rookies are his 03 Bowman Chrome Auto & Bowman’s Best Auto. These two cards have been hot sellers for around $165-175 & $75-80 TAC, respectively.

I’ve read that the Marlins were thinking about the possibility of having Ramirez in the middle of the line-up, which could help to drive in more runs (as long as the hitters in front of him get on base). I think that he can be successful wherever he hits, but he would probably be the most valuable in the #1 or #2 spots, with Cabrera hitting #3 behind him. I think that the Marlins are one of the teams of the future, and Ramirez will definitely be one of the stars to lead them to success.

Player Focus: Leo Nunez

On Saturday, the Royals' 23-year-old Leo Nunez out-dueled Dustin McGowan to help his team to a a 4-1 victory over the Blue Jays. This was only the third career start for Nunez, who was purely a reliever in previous years. On the season, he has pitched 4 games (3 as starter, 1 as reliever), going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. If you only look at his stats for his 3 starts, he's 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA.

Nunez has potential to get on the hobby map this season (he's been a common ever since his debut). Beating McGowan (a hobby up-and-comer) in his last start should garner him some attention. If he can continue his success, I expect to see more action on his cards. One potential stumbling block would be that he plays for the Royals, who haven't been to the post season since '85, and have only had one winning season in the last 10+ years.

Of his RC cards that I've seen, his 04 Bowman Chrome seems to be his best. Since his cards are so cheap, you can probably find a BC Gold Ref #'d 50 for less than $10 TAC. All of the Nunez RC's on auction have bids (a month ago they probably wouldn't have had any), showing that collectors/investors are already starting to speculate.

Follow-Up: Rick Ankiel's OF Debut

It was looking pretty bleak for Rick Ankiel, in his 1st game back with the Cards as an outfielder. Through the 6th inning, he was 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts. I just thought hey, it's his first game, it'll probably take a little while for him to get adjusted to major league pitching. But in the 7th, he went deep for a 3-run homer, off of reliever Doug Brocail. I'm very happy for Ankiel, and hope that he can keep his spot on the St. Louis roster.

MLB Briefs

• D-Rays ace Scott Kazmir (my #1 pitcher investment pick for age 23-25) has been on fire. In his last 3 starts, he's 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA, 11.37 K's/9IP and only1.89 BB/9IP! Tonight he shut down Jeremy Bonderman (my #3 pick for age 23-25) & the Tigers, helping his team to a 8-1 victory. Kazmir's key Auto RC's have been slowly inching up in price the past couple of months. I expect them to continue their upward trend, and possibly start increasing at a faster pace.
• On Sunday, Dustin McGowan helped lead his Bluejays to a win over the Rangers, 4-1. McGowan pitched 8 strong innings, allowing just 1 run & 1 BB, with 6 K's. He has improved every month so far this season, with a 5.90 ERA in May, a 4.54 in June, a 2.78 in July, and now a 1.13 in his first August start. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC was selling in the $30's range in June, but has since fallen to the $9-12 TAC range in July. Now is a good time to pick this card up, before it starts to rise again.
  
• When this season started, I had high hopes for the Pittsburgh Pirates. I thought that their rotation could be a cinderella-type rotation for the NL. Unfortunately, they've disappointed more than they're shined. One bright spot in this group though, has been Tom Gorzelanny, who leads this rotation with a 10-6 record, 3.50 ERA and a 11.78 IP/HRA (innings pitched/homerun allowed). Through the end of May, he was 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA, but thereafter, he started to struggle in June, and really stumbled in July. During that time, his 03 UD Propsect Premiers Auto fell in TAC price from the mid $20's range down to the $12-15 range. His last start, on 8/7, was a good one. In 7 innings against the NL West-leading D-Backs, he allowed 2 runs & 2 BB, and had 9 K's. Look for his key Auto RC's to start getting some hobby attention again soon.
  

Player Focus: Matt Garza

Matt Garza, the young 23 year old Twins pitcher, has probably had some of the worst luck among all starters this season. Since rejoining the team in early July, he's gone 1-3 in 6 starts & 1 relief appearance. Based on this record, you'd never think that he could have a 1.70 ERA, 8.45 K's/9IP and 2.47 BB/9IP. Talk about no run support! He's had 4 starts in which he has allowed 1 run or less. What's his record for those 4 great outings? 1-2!

I think that because Garza has such a terrible record, a lot of collectors have overlooked him. If I'm not mistaken, he only has two base Auto RC's: 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto & 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto. The Topps Chrome Auto has the signature on a sticker, so for those of you who don't like that set-up, go for the Bowman Chrome Auto, which has the sig directly on the card. Both cards can be still found at reasonable prices. There's a BCD Auto auction ending in 3 days and the bid is currently at $15 TAC. A TCU Auto auction is also ending in 3 days and is currently at $16.05 TAC.

Rick Ankiel Receives Call-Up as Outfielder

Several years ago, Rick Ankiel was considered one of the hottest young up-and-comers in the league, as a starting pitcher for St. Louis. His control problems, which exploded in the Cardinals' '00 NLDS vs. the Braves, continued into '01, and eventually caused him to be sent down to the lowly Rookie League. He did better there, and was called back up in '04 to make a few relief appearances, before heading back down to the minors. In '05 he made the surprising announcement that he was switching to the outfield. He's been quite successful in his new position, leading the Triple-A Pacific Coast League with 32 HR this season, and ranked 2nd with 89 RBI.

Today the Cardinals announced that the 28-year old Ankiel would be a starting OF against the Padres. He was always considered a decent hitter as a pitcher, and has proved it as a minor league outfielder. Let's see if he can hang in the majors.

Back in the day, I was so thrilled to have pulled two great Ankiel rookie year cards; his 99 SP Top Prospects Chirography Auto and 99 Ultimate Victory Parallel. When he was sent down, these cards became commons. I've been holding on to them all these years with the hope that he would make a comeback. The Cardinals could really use the boost, with their subpar 52-59 record. I wish him luck in tonights game; he'll need it against the major league ERA leader Chris Young!

There seems to be some increased auction interest in his 2nd year 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500. There are two of them ending in 2 days that are currently at $16.50 TAC each.

MLB Monthly Market Movements

Here are some of the players' cards that experienced TAC value changes from June to July. The first value is the June average TAC and the second is the July average TAC.

• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez - $84.73 -> $105.02 (+24%)
• 00 Bowman Draft Grady Sizemore Auto - $301.23 -> $270.94 (-10%)
• 01 UD Propsect Premiers Ryan Howard - $20.46 -> $26.82 (+31%)
  
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels - $27.27 -> $21.83 (-19.9%)
• 03 Bowman's Best Felix Pie Auto - $71.79 -> $54.35 (-24.3%)
• 03 Bowman's Best Dan Haren Auto - $40.00 -> $35.37 (-11.6%)
  
• 04 Bowman Sterling Scott Kazmir Auto/Jsy - $19.80 -> $15.88 (-19.8%)
• 04 SP Prospects Hunter Pence Auto #'d 600 - $258.21 -> $309.31 (+19.8%)
• 04 Donruss Elite EE Yovani Gallardo Auto #'d 803 - $59.47 -> $54.58 (-8.2%)

No surprise with the price increases for ARod & Ryan Howard. Howard, as predicted, is back in the HR race, trailing Prince Fielder, the NL leader, by only 2 HR.

I was surprised at the decrease for Yovani Gallardo. I thought that his last few strong outings would've lifted his values up some. Gallardo's only 21 years old and has a lot of potential. As long as he continues to pitch well for the Brewers, you can expect his cards to increase in value. (Although tonight's game against the Rockies definitely won't be helping to give him a lift! He went 2-2/3 innings, allowing 11 ER off of 12 hits. Ouch!).

Unfortunately the increases last month for Hunter Pence's RC's have now reversed, since his injury on 7/22. You can now find his SP Prospects card in the low to mid $200's range. His Donruss Elite Auto #'d 672 can be bought for less than $100 TAC (July avg was $134.40). Hopefully he'll have a good rehab and return soon.

Player Focus: Corey Hart

The Brewers have been a pleasant surprise this season. Slugger Prince Fielder was hot in the hobby before the break, and Ryan Braun has been on fire since June. These two young stars have overshadowed the emergence of another possible up-and-comer, Corey Hart. Hart started the season batting 7th in the Brewers' line-up, and moved up to the lead-off spot full-time in June, replacing Rickie Weeks. Hart solidified his position there by hitting .336 with 9 HR, 21 RBI & 10 SB that month. He cooled considerably in July, batting .200 with 6 HR, 13 RBI & 0 SB, but seems to be rebounding so far in August (on 8/2 vs. the Mets, he went 3 for 5 with 2 HR & 3 RBI).

Hart's rookie cards from '02 are still affordable, and should have decent growth potential. He's a 6'6" lead-off hitter that can hit home runs, steal bases, and hit for average. Also, he's playing for a team that has some of the hottest young hitters in the league. His only rookies that I've seen come from the 02 Bowman Draft & Bowman Chrome Draft sets. If anyone else has seen any other MLB rookies of his, please let me know & I'll post them up in the comments section. Thanks!

A Day After #500: ARod's 94 SP RC

ARod hit his 500th career HR on 8/4. Sales of his 94 SP RC averaged around $103 TAC during the week leading up to this historical event. On 8/5, the day after #500, his SP RC averaged $124; a 20% increase. There weren't that many auctions ending yesterday, so maybe sellers were holding off listing because of ARod's 10-day HR drought between #499 & #500. I expect to see a lot of auctions ending around the 11th of this month (people listing 7-day auctions on 8/4). We might see a slight dip in TAC around that time due to over supply. I would still think that it would hold an average TAC value of around $115-125 for the duration of the season, unless he goes on a crazy HR spree or hits a total drought.

MLB Briefs

• Cubs star Alfonso Soriano suffered a right quad strain yesterday while running from 1B to 3B against the Mets. He'll be out 2-4 weeks. Soriano's 99 Topps Traded Auto had already fallen from the $150's range at the beginning of July down to the $90's range at the end of the month. Now that he's on the DL, it'll probably drop a little more.
• Brewers' rookie pitcher Yovani Gallardo tossed a gem on Friday to help his team to a 2-1 victory over the Phillies. He went 6-2/3 innings, allowing just 4 hits, 1 run & 1 BB, with 7 K's, to improve to 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA for the season. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto RC #'d 803 has been a consistent seller this past month, ranging from $43 to $72 TAC. You can probably find it in the $60-$70 range. His 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400 is his best RC, averaging a TAC of $180+ in July.
• Phil Hughes, the Yankees' rookie pitcher, returned from the DL to start this past Saturday against the Royals. Hughes got roughed up for 7 hits & 6 ER in just 4-2/3 innings. He did have 5 K's though. This was Hughes' first start since 5/1 against the Rangers, when he tossed 6-1/3 no-hit innings with 3 BB & 6 K's. This subpar return hasn't seemed to affect his RC card sales much. His 04 Bowman Chrome Auto is selling for $180-$190 TAC, and his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400 can be had for around $300 TAC.
  

ARod Hits #500!

Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 500th career HR today, off of Kyle Davies, who was just acquired by the Royals from Atlanta earlier this week. After waiting 10 days since his 499th, he didn't waste any time today, going deep in the 1st inning for a 3-run homer. ARod is now the youngest player ever to reach 500 (32 year, 8 days), beating Jimmie Foxx's previous record by 330 days.

His 94 SP RC has averaged around $103 TAC for the past week. It'll be interesting to see if sales prices increase now. As we all know, the relationship between milestones & sales prices don't always correlate. I do expect to see a lot more of them up on auction in the immediate future. This increase in supply may cancel out some of the potential price gains that sellers are expecting to receive. We'll see what happens.

Player Focus: Mark Teixeira

The Braves' newest addition, Mark Teixeira, was hitting a HR every 22.00 AB & a RBI every 5.86 AB this season with the Rangers. In his 1st two games with the Braves, he hit 2 HR & 6 RBI in 11 AB. Maybe this change was what he needed to get back to like the slugger everyone expected him to be. Since peaking in '05 (43 HR & 144 RBI), we've seen his HR & RBI production fall the last 2 seasons. Now he's hitting in between the Jones' in Atlanta's very potent line-up. I expect his production to rise back up, driving more interest in his key RC cards.

From what I can tell, Teixeira only has two base Auto RC's: 01 SPx Auto #'d 1500 & 01 Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250. I don't have any historical data on his cards, but there are a couple of his SPx RC's on auction right now, ending in 3 days, so we'll see if he's already started picking up hobby steam since his move to the Braves a couple days ago.

Player Update: Elijah Dukes

Things seem to be getting worse for the former D-Rays slugger, Elijah Dukes down to the minors & placed on the temporary inactive list back in June, because of off-the-field problems he was having. Dukes was sent with his wife, who had filed a restraining order against him. Now, Dukes is being accused of harassing his wife over the phone, which is a violation of his restraining order. If he's convicted of this misdemeanor, he could face up to 1 year in jail.

All of Dukes' RC cards have taken huge hits since he was bumped from the D-Rays roster. Both his 07 Bowman Auto & Bowman Blue Auto #'d 500 have dropped from around $12 TAC at the beginning of July, to the $6-$8 range in recent. Back in early June, these two cards were hot sellers for around $20-$30 TAC. Dukes is an extremely high risk investment. If you're willing to take plunge, now is a good time to start scouting out deals on his cards. Be patient though, because his cards are still selling at a wide range of prices (i.e. this month, his Bowman Auto has sold at a high of $14.11, and a low of $5.75 TAC - just one week apart).

Padres or Peavy Fan?

A couple people wrote in asking if I was a Padres fan or just a Peavy fan. I'm more of a Peavy fan. Since I'm from SoCal, I would probably cheer for the Padres against most other teams outside of the area, but the Dodgers are my fav team. I just think that Peavy is an excellent pitcher, and enjoy watching him play.

Also, thanks to baseballfan4ever for the additional Peavy RC card insight!

Peavy's Back!

Slumping Padres ace Jake Peavy, who went 1-3 with a 3.81 ERA in July, started August off in terrific form. He helped his team beat the NL West leading D-Backs 11-0 tonight, pitching 7 innings & allowing just 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB with 10 K's!

I've been writing about how his 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC has been falling in recent, due to his subpar pitching, dropping from the $60 range a little over a month ago, down to it's recent $30-$40 range. If you didn't pick one of these up in the past couple of weeks, you better get one soon. Over the last month, his 01 Topps Fusion Auto (only RC year auto) dropped down to around $120-$130; a far cry from it's high of around $200 a few months ago (or even its $160-$170 price tag just over a month ago).

If this is really a sign that he's breaking out of his slump, his cards should rebound quite nicely (especially since even after his slump, he still had a 2.41 ERA, which is 2nd best in the majors). I think that Peavy is a great investment, both short & long term. He's also a terrific buy for any collection.

Response to Question: 2001 UD Johan Santana "Star Rookie"

Thanks for the question. This card only books for $5 because, although it says "Star Rookie" on it, 2001 wasn't actually his RC card year (it's 2000). If the card was from the 2000 UD set, it probably would book for $15. I would understand it saying "Star Rookie" if 2001 was his debut season in the majors, but he actually debuted in 2000. Maybe because it's Upper Deck's first card of Santana. Anyway, that's the reason for it's current book value. $5 actually isn't that bad for a 2nd year card of a player that Beckett considers a "Semistar", although we all know Santana is one of the best pitchers in the league.

Thanks for reading!

MLB Briefs

• Alex Rodriguez is 0 for 17 since he hit his 499th career HR, but his 94 SP RC seems to be holding onto a strong average TAC price since then (7/25), at around $102.80. I've seen sales as high as $140+, but you can still find them in the $90's range if you look carefully.
• Indians' ace C.C. Sabathia was 12-2 with a 3.20 ERA through the end of June, but has had a rocky July, going 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA for the month. His 99 Topps Traded Auto has felt the effects of his current slump, dropping in TAC price from the $60's range to the $40's range in the last few weeks. Now is a good time to buy.
• Johan Santana, one of the best strike-out pitchers of the last several years, is having a challenging '07 season, but his 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 has been holding steady at around $57 TAC. I think that most collectors know Santana is a future 3000 K's (if not 4000 K's) pitcher who will eventually break out of this slump. Right now I would rate his RC's a "Hold".
  
• Cleveland slugger Travis Hafner started the season strong in April, but has struggled ever since. We're finally starting to see his slumping play affect his card values. His 01 SPx Auto RC was selling for around $70 TAC up through a week ago, but has since fallen, and can be found for around the $40's range.
• Prince Fielder, who was the hottest hitter in the NL not too long ago, has since been overshadowed by teammate Ryan Braun. His 02 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC has fallen in average TAC price every week this month; from $228.50, to $198.31, to $178.63, to $167.92, and this week to $160.18. Fielder still leads the NL in HR (30) and is 2nd in the majors (to ARod). His cards are becoming good buys again, so keep your eye out for deals!

Thanks!

Who's the toughest pitcher to HR off of?

In the past I've compared & ranked pitchers based on W's, ERA, K's/9IP, and BB/9IP, but there's another stat that tells how tough a pitcher is: Innings Pitched/HR allowed (IP/HRA). The top 5 starters so far this season are:

1. Tim Hudson (ATL) - 37.92 IP/HRA
2. Jake Peavy (SD) - 34.50 IP/HRA
3. Brad Penny (LAD) - 34.00 IP/HRA
4. Chris Young (SD) - 29.67 IP/HRA
5. Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) - 21.61 IP/HRA

I don't know what the heck this has to do with the hobby, since runs can be scored in a lot of other ways, but just thought it was kind of interesting to see (especially in this day & age of so many big HR hitters). Of course those other stats mentioned above are much more key in driving the value of a pitcher's cards.

MLB Briefs: Weekly Market Movement

Here are some of the players' cards that experience market movements in the last week. The first figure is the average TAC for last week, and the second is the average for this week (through 7/28)

• 99 Topps Traded Alfonso Soriano Auto - $109.58 -> $129.25 (+17.9%)
• 01 Bowman Chrome Ref Jake Peavy - $43.87 -> $37.60 (-14.3%)
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels - $24.48 -> $20.12 (-17.8%)
• 04 Bowman Sterling Scott Kazmir Auto/Jsy - $11.39 -> $15.91 (+39.7%)
• 02 UD Prospect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto - $178.63 -> $167.92 (-6%)
• 01 UD Prospect Premiers Ryan Howard - $31.94 -> $26.74 (-16.3%)
• 04 Donruss Elite EE Hunter Pence Auto - $142.87 -> $113.90 (-20.3%)
• 04 Bowman Chrome Felix Hernandez Auto - $111.81 -> $95.30 (-14.8%)
• 05 Bowman Sterling Ryan Braun Auto - $52.93 -> $85.11 (+60.8%)
• 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Ryan Braun Auto - $145.66 -> $158.13 (+8.6%)
• 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Ryan Braun Ref Auto - $196.35 -> $218.78 (+11.4%)

No surprise about Ryan Braun's Auto RC's jumping in price this week (and almost every other week recently!). He has emerged as the Brewers' star hitter, batting .350 with 11 HR & 24 RBI so far this month, just as pre-break star Prince Fielder has cooled off, hitting just .282 with 3 HR & 9 RBI during the same period.

Scott Kazmir, my #1 pick for pitcher investments (age 23-25) is starting to attract hobby interest, although his Auto RC's are still great deals are current TAC price levels. Did you see his ace performance against Matsuzaka & the Red Sox today? He went 6 innings & allowed 6 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB with 8 K's. Too bad his offense didn't kick in till the 7th, giving him a no decision.

Now is a good time to buy Jake Peavy & Felix Hernandez cards. Both have been falling in value due to inconsistent performances, but both remain solid long term investments. Get them now before they start moving up again.

Two More Stars on the Verge of Reaching HR Milestones

With two stars already reaching their HR milestones this season (Sammy Sosa - 600 HR & Frank Thomas - 500 HR), we now have two of the highest profile milestones closely approaching: Alex Rodriguez becoming the youngest ever to reach 500 HR & Barry Bonds breaking the all-time record of 755 HR. Both will probably do it in the next week or so, but will the hobby really care? Unfortunately, when other players in the past have reached certain career milestones, they didn't make too many waves in the hobby.

So far from what I've seen, there hasn't been any increased market activity (meaning higher sales prices) for Bonds' RC cards. His unpopularity outside of SF, combined with his steroids scandal will probably keep his cards from seeing any significant spikes in interest.

As I've mentioned about ARod, he's still leading the majors in HR & RBI, but his key 94 SP RC cards seem to be selling at very inconsistent levels, with their average TAC values dropping recently. ARod's cards probably have the better chance to rise because, in addition to his milestone, he's also having a very good season.

The next two players who will reach their HR milestones after Bonds & ARod are Ken Griffey Jr. & Manny Ramirez (Jim Thome is close too, but doesn't have any hobby love). Griffey's 89 UD RC has been selling in the $21 to $45 TAC range, depending on card condition (as stated by seller), time of day auction ends (not always consistent) and how many are up for sale at the same time. Manny's 92 Bowman RC has been slowly creeping up in price this month, with an average TAC of $14.72 the 1st week of July, $17.92 the 3rd week, and now $18.00 this week (I didn't see any raw versions for sale in the 2nd week). This card has potential to return to it's previous glory, and will probably continue to rise as long as Manny keeps on performing.

Youngest to Reach 500 HR

Alex Rodriguez, now sitting on 499 career HR, is about to make history. As of today, Alex is 31 yrs & 364 day old. That gives him 338 days to hit his 500th, and become the youngest ever to reach that mark (Jimmie Foxx is the current youngest, at 32 yrs & 337 days, hit back on 9/24/40). I think it's pretty safe to say he has more than an outside chance to doing it!

His 94 SP RC hasn't reflected the magnitude this impending achievement though, in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks, it's averaged around $101 TAC; a pretty big drop from the previous week of around $128. ARod has been hot, so I'm a little confused about this drop in price. Like I said before, guess it may just be over saturation, since there ARE so many up for sale. Anyway, this is still his best base RC, and a must have for any baseball card collection. So far this week, the TAC low that I've seen was $80.02, and the high was $147.50 (quite a large range). If you can find one at the low end, I would say it's a great buy. After he hits his 500th, I expect the average to raise up to the $120's range again.

Player Focus: Ryan Raburn

Ryan Raburn was called up to Detroit earlier this month, after Neifi Perez was suspended for amphetamine use (source: wikipedia). The last (and first) time Raburn was called up was in '04, when he played 12 games and hit a dismal .138 with 0 HR, 1 RBI and 15 SO's in only 29 AB (he struck out more than 50% of his at-bats!). This time things are much different. After tearing up triple-A ball with Toledo (.292, 17 HR, 64 RBI), he got the call and joined the Tigers on 7/6. Through his first 10 big league games this season, he's hitting .500 with 3 HR & 10 RBI. Last night against the White Sox he really broke out, going 4 for 5 with 2 HR & 7 RBI!

Expect Raburn's two key RC's from 02 to really start to catch fire; his Bowman Chrome Auto & Bowman's Best Auto. There are a few of these on auction ending this week. I'll post their TAC prices up when they end. Whatever they sell for, you can expect them to go up from there (as long as he continues to play well).

Great Pitching Match-Ups

We've seen two great pitching match-ups in the BOS vs. CLE series these past two nights. On Tues Daisuke Matsuzaka (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's) prevailed over C.C. Sabathia (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K's), and yesterday Fausto Carmona (8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's) beat Josh Beckett (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K's). Unfortunately the two pitchers out of these four that I listed in my "best pitcher investments" both lost! It's ok though, because they both pitched very well, despite the losses. As for the two pitchers that were not on my list, Matsuzaka's key RC's are already very expensive (an auction for his 07 SPx Auto Redemption card ends in about 4 hrs and it's at $200+), and Carmona was a candidate to be included, but I was skeptical because 1) this is his 1st season as a full-time starter, and 2) although he's 13-4 with a 3.31 ERA this year, last season he was 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA. Hopefully this really is a breakout season for Carmona (and not a fluke) and he'll have a lot of years of solid pitching ahead of him.

In the News: Big Unit's Future Uncertain

Randy Johnson, one of the best pitchers ever, has spent a lot of time on the DL this year, after having back surgery in the off season. His latest stint on the DL was due to a herniated disc. After about a month without pitching, he threw an equivalent of around 3 innings yesterday, and said that he didn't feel pain, but was tired. It sounds like Johnson is uncertain about his condition, and whether or not he could continue to pitch.

It would be great to see him come back to earn his 300th W (he has 284), but even if he doesn't, he's still on his way to the Hall, and will go down in history as one of the most dominant strike-out pitchers in the game. In the 10 games that he pitched this season, he still averaged 11.43 K's/9 IP (Clemens, who has also pitched 10 games this year, is only averaging 5.74 K's/9 IP)!

I remember hearing on the news several years ago about how a lot of left-handed hitters were scared to face Johnson, because when he was delivering his pitch, the ball would actually be released behind the hitter, and be brought back to the plate in front of them (guess when you're 6'10", you have pretty long arms!).

Anyway, I wish the Big Unit luck in his rehab, and hope that he does return to continue making history.

Potential Investment: Jake Peavy Having a Rough July

Jake Peavy was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the NL (if not the entire MLB) during the April through June period, going 9-2 with a 2.09 ERA & 9.56 K's/9 IP. During that time, his 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC shot up to a high of $60+ by late June.

July hasn't been so kind to Peavy. He's posted a slumping 0-3 record, with a 4.74 ERA & 8.05 K's/9 IP (in 3 starts). His Chrome RC card has also been falling, averaging a TAC of $50.82 the week of 7/8, then down to $43.87 the week of 7/15, and now $38.47 so far this week (one sold yesterday for $36.50 TAC).

Peavy is one of the best young pitchers in the league, and this month might just be a good opportunity to buy his cards (I ranked him #2 on my "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 26 to 27"). I'm predicting that he'll bounce back within his next few starts, so better to buy now before they quickly jump back up to the $50+ range (which, as we've seen, can happen very quickly!).

Breaking News: Hunter Pence Out 4-6 Weeks

It was reported yesterday that Astros' rookie Hunter Pence broke a bone in his right wrist, and will probably be out 4-6 weeks. Pence was having a great season, batting .330 with 12 HR & 45 RBI. His RC cards have been on fire, with July TAC averages of $140.27 for his 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto #'d 672, $315.71 for his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 600, and $139.52 for his 04 Hot Prospects Auto #'d 299.

We'll see if the market holds for these key RC cards while Pence is recovering. At least it looks like he'll be back before the end of the season.

Underrated: Scott Olsen

23-year-old Marlins pitcher Scott Olsen has had a long string of incidents during his short MLB career, including fights with teammates, making obscene gestures to fans, DUI, resisting arrest and fleeing & eluding police. Despite all that, he's a very decent pitcher. Last season, as a rookie, he went 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA, 8.27 K's/9 IP & 3.74 BB/9 IP. His 166 K's that year gave him the Marlins' record for most K's by a rookie. This season though, he's been pitching below his potential, going 8-7 with a 4.99 ERA so far.

As a result of his drop in performance, Olsen hasn't received much hobby interest this season, so his RC cards are pretty affordable. You can find his 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy (the only Auto RC of his that I've seen) for around $10-15 TAC.

Just like Scott Kazmir & Dontrelle Willis, I believe that this young pitcher is just temporarily off his game, and should rebound sooner or later. Did I also mention that he's also a decent hitter (.242 BA through 7/22)? As for his behavioral concerns, hopefully he'll just outgrow them with time.

Underrated: Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson went from touted Dodgers prospect to forgotten D-Rays common over the past few years. I said it before and still believe that this guy has talent. He's having another challenging season overall, with a 2-9 record & 6.69 ERA. In his last outing vs. the Yankees though, he showed signs of his potential, pitching 6 innings & allowing 4 hits, 0 runs, 4 BB & striking out 4.

Many collectors have already written him off because of his mostly-bad performances, but let's remember a few things about him: 1) he's only 23 years old, 2) he's averaging 7.79 K's/9 IP, and 3) he's still here in the majors (the D-Rays management must see something in this guy to keep him around). I think that there are some collectors out there still holding on to the hope that he blossoms one day (since there aren't that many of his cards up on auction - either that or they don't think the money they'll make is worth their time to list them!).

I think that with a little more experience, he'll be able to become more confident & consistent, reduce his BB/9 IP (4.98), and help fellow D-Rays rotation youngster Scott Kazmir bring some legitimacy to the organization. I already wrote a post in the past about their high potential line-up (hopefully Elijah Dukes will be able to return soon). I still think that the D-Rays are one of the teams of the future, and Jackson could very well be a big part of it.

Jackson has some nice Auto RC's from '03, like his Leaf Limited & Donruss Elite EE TOTC. It might not hurt to buy & hold these cards, since you can probably find them for very low prices.

MLB Deals: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano started the season slow in April (.270, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB), then started picking up momentum in May (.302, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB), and really got hot in June (.336, 11 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB). So far in July though, he seems to have cooled off again, batting .275, 1 HR, 7 RBI & 3 SB (through 7/20).

His 99 Topps Traded Auto seems to be following his performance, with one selling for $157.50 TAC on 7/5, then one selling on 7/15 for $129.50, and then with two selling on 7/19 for $111.45 and $87.78. This is the first time in months that I've seen this card drop below the $100 TAC mark. Collectors are so finicky, not remembering that Soriano is a proven player who's one of a select few that has a chance at reaching a career 400 HR & 400 SB (he's currently at 224 HR & 223 SB). This is his only RC year Auto, and by far his most coveted card from '99. There aren't too many for sale on auction, but if you can find one in the $80's range, I think that it's a good deal. Potentially, that person who bought that card for $87.78 could turn around in a month (if Soriano heats up again) and sell it for around a $60-70 profit (looking at the sale just 2 weeks earlier on 7/5)! Whether its for an investment or your collection, I think that Soriano is a good buy right now.

Player Focus: Yovani Gallardo

Rookie Yovani Gallardo, who replaced Ben Sheets (DL) in the Brewers rotation, had a great outing last night, pitching 6 strong innings & allowing just 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB & had 4 K's, to help his team pummel the D-Backs 10-1. In 7 games (4 starts & 3 reliefs) this year, he has a 2-1 record with a 2.34 ERA, 8.05 K's/9 IP & 2.85 BB/9 IP (very low for a 21 year old!).

Gallardo's 04 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Auto RC #'d 803 has been a solid seller this month, averaging around $50 TAC (*down from close to $60 in June). Seemingly his top base RC is his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400, which is much harder to find on auction, and much more expensive. The last one I saw sold on 7/16 for $171.95 TAC. There's also his Donruss Elite EE Status Auto #'d 95, which sells for around $100 TAC.

Now is probably a good time to invest in Gallardo. He has a lot of potential, and he's playing for one of the hottest young teams in the majors.

Coming Soon (probably within the next week): "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 23 to 25" on Sportslizard.com.

MLB Briefs: Market Movement

Here are some examples of changes in the market so far this week, for some of the players that I've been watching. The first figure is the average TAC for last week, and the second is the average for this week (through 7/17).

• 93 SP Derek Jeter - $48.11 -> $52.88 (+9.9%)
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez - $128.47 -> $96.82 (-24.6%)
• 95 Bowman's Best Andruw Jones - $21.30 -> $25.50 (+19.7%)
• 00 Bowman Draft Grady Sizemore Auto - $285.23 -> $263.88 (-7.5%)
• 02 UD Prospect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto - $198.31 -> $178.63 (-9.9%)
• 01 UD Prospect Premiers Ryan Howard - $26.85 -> $33.39 (+26.6%)
• 05 Bowman Sterling Ryan Braun Auto - $66.79 - > $75.78 (+13.5%)

I don't understand the drop in ARod's SP RC, since he's been hitting well, is closing in on 500 HR, and leads the majors in HR & RBI. My guess would be over saturation of the market.

Andruw Jones is finally heating up, hitting 6 HR & 16 RBI in his last 13 games. His top RC, Bowman's Best, is finally starting to inch up as a result.

While Ryan Braun's other Auto RC's have been pretty flat compared to last week (they've already jumped tremendously), his Bowman Sterling Auto is now starting to receive increased interest, jumping 13.5% so far this week.

Player Focus: Jose Guillen

Since his rookie year in '97, Jose Guillen is has changed teams 8 times, playing for teams in every part of the country. He's had his ups & downs throughout his journey, but it would seem that he's finally found home in Seattle. In his first season with the team, Guillen has been a strong contributor to the Mariners' success thus far, with their 51-38 record (they haven't had a winning season since '03). He's batting .285 (4th on team), with 12 HR (3rd), 55 RBI (T1st) and a .357 OBP (2nd). This month (thru 7/15), he's hitting .426 with 3 HR, 12 RBI and only 5 SO's!

Unfortunately, Guillen has zero hobby love. His top rookie card is his 96 Bowman's Best RC, which can be found for a couple of bucks on auction (one is currently listed at $1.50 BIN, plus $2.50 s&h). If the Mariners can give the Angels a run at the AL West title, or at least catch the wild card, Guillen MIGHT have a chance at getting more exposure (if he continues to play well), but chances are he'll remain in hobby obscurity, just because there are so many good players out there, who are younger & more hyped than him.

Player Updates

• Oliver Perez (NYM, P) - Perez returned from the DL yesterday and was looking pretty good, allowing 2 ER in 6-1/3 IP, with 6 K's. Perez is an underrated strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.43 K's/9 IP through his career. Overall he's having a good season, with 8 W's and a 3.13 ERA. His 02 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 550 & SPx Auto RC #'d 825 are his cards to get. Unfortunately for buyers, there haven't been many up for sale since he was on the DL. Now that he's back, they should start to pop back up. His Ultimate Coll sold for an average TAC of $27.53 in June, and would probably sell for around that much now. You can find his SPx RC for around $20-25.
• Felix Hernandez (SEA, P) - It looks like Hernandez's recovery is coming along well, since being sidelined back in April. He was still inconsistent through May & June, but seems to be getting back into the groove in July, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA & 5.25 K's/9 IP (a little low for him) in his first 3 starts this month. His 04 Bowman Chrome Auto & Bowman's Best Auto RC's are also starting to reappear & rebound. You can find his Chrome for around $130-140 TAC, and his Bowman's Best for $60-65. I think that at these price levels, there's definitely still more room for growth (as we saw back in April).
  
• Grady Sizemore (CLE, CF) - Sizemore has been one of the most hyped-up young players in the league, and his 00 Bowman Draft Picks Auto has been one of the hottest cards in the hobby. Through April, May & June, he was pretty consistently decent in BA, HR, RBI & SB. So far in July, he's pretty much on pace in all those stat areas except for BA, which has dropped to .234, from a previous 3-month average of .285. He's striking out less, but just not getting hits. His OBP is a season low .321 this month, and being a lead-off hitter, this is a very important stat. Collectors seem to have picked up on this drop in performance, with the average TAC for his Bowman Auto falling from $301.23 in June to $288.14 so far in July. You can find them for around $250-270 on auction currently; a far cry from his April levels of $400-500!

Hot / Not - Weekly Briefs

Here is a sampling of RC cards that were either hot or not this past week, compared to the previous week, based on actual average TAC (Total Acquisition Cost) sales. The first amount is last week's average, and the second is this week's, with the %chg in ( ).

• Hot List
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez - $104.06 -> $128.47 (+23.5%)
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez D/C - $107.88 -> $123.27 (+14.7%)
• 99 Bowman Chrome Matt Holliday - $7.42 -> $19.00 (+156%)
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels - $23.82 -> $32.31 (+35.6%)
• 01 UD Prospect Premiers Ryan Howard - $22.92 -> $26.85 (+17.1%)
• 04 SP Prospects Hunter Pence Auto #'d 600 - $267.77 -> $324.08 (+21%)
• 05 Bowman Sterling Ryan Braun Auto/Jsy - $56.53 -> $66.79 (+18.1%)
• 05 Bowman Chrome Ryan Braun Auto - $120.96 -> $149.73 (+23.8%)
• Not List
• 89 UD Ken Griffey Jr. - $47.98 -> $31.38 (-34.6%)
• 93 SP Derek Jeter - $54.21 -> $41.11 (-24.2%)
• 00 Bowman Draft Grady Sizemore Auto - $300.75 -> $285.23 (-5.2%)
  
• 03 Bowman's Best Dan Haren Auto - $40.75 -> $32.58 (-20%)
• 05 Topps RC Cup Troy Tulowitzki Auto #'d 399 - $34.75 -> $27.91 (-19.7%)

• 07 Bowman Elijah Dukes Auto - $11.09 -> $9.41 (-15.1%)
• 07 Bowman Blue Elijah Dukes Auto - $11.92 -> $10.25 (-14%)

ARod's SP RC & all of Ryan Braun's RC's are currently selling for more than this past week's averages. They continue to be 2 of the hottest players in the hobby.

I don't understand why Griffey's UD RC dropped so much. My only guess is that supply has surpassed demand. Elijah Dukes' RC's continue to drop as expected, since he's pretty much out indefinitely (although there are a few buyers out there paying more than they should be, keeping the average TAC higher than it should be).

Thanks for reading!

Year of Milestone HR's; Who's the Biggest Threat at the Plate?

At the beginning of the season, there were 7 players hoping to reach major HR milestones this season. At the AS break, 2 had already reached their goals, while the remaining 5 are almost there. I've compared each player's career stats, looking at Extra-Base Hit Batting Avg, AB/HR, AB/BB, AB/SO, OBP, Batting Avg, and Games/HR. Here is how they ranked:

1. Barry Bonds (Goal: 756 HR, At Break: 751) - Bonds has been the biggest offensive threat out of these 7 players, leading the group in extra-base hit BA (.147), AB/HR (12.93), AB/BB (3.86), AB/SO (6.39) and OBP (.445). If he didn't have the steroids monkey on his back (and if he was more likable), he would probably be getting much more hobby love than he's getting now. Sure he'll break Aaron's record, but he'll never be universally respected as a player. I don't follow his RC cards, but when I've occasionally checked their auctions, they were selling for under BV.
   
2. Manny Ramirez (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 481 HR) - Ramirez, who has been one of my favorite hitters for a long time, was a close 2nd to Bonds, with an extra-base hit BA of .139, and a group-best career BA of .313. Yes, David Ortiz is a great clutch hitter, but Ramirez is, in my opinion, the better overall hitter. His 92 Bowman RC card (not the foil one) has fallen over the years from $40 down to it's current $25 BV. You can find raw versions on auction for around $15 TAC; a great deal for this future HOFer!
   
3. Alex Rodriguez (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 494 HR) - ARod, one of the hottest players in the hobby right now, led this group in games/HR. On average, he's hit a HR every 3.71 games throughout his career! What can I saw about ARod, other than he's gonna be the youngest player to reach the 500 HR mark, he'll probably (hopefully) be the one to break Bonds' career HR total (after Bonds breaks Aaron's 755), and he's a future HOFer. His 94 SP RC, which had an average TAC of $84 in June, can now be found on auction for around $120 to $140 TAC. Should have bought this one back in April, when it was selling for $50!
   
4. Frank Thomas (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 501 HR) - I really feel for the Big Hurt. Back in the mid 90's, he, along with Griffey Jr. & Ripken, were the hottest players in the hobby. Since then, injuries have plagued Thomas' career, often times making it seem questionable if he was even going to have a chance at the 500 mark. I'm glad to see him do it, even if it's in a Blue Jays uniform (which I'm still not used to seeing!). Thomas, who has a .303 career BA, ranked 2nd in this group in both OBP (.422) and AB/SO (5.93). His 90 Leaf RC has a BV of $20, and can be found for less on auction. It wouldn't hurt to have 1 or 2 of these in your collection (I personally have 2).
   
5. Jim Thome (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 486 HR) - Thome seems to get almost no hobby interest, even though he'll probably reach the 500 HR mark either this season, or early next season. A big part of that is because all of his RC cards (and everyone else from '91) are way overproduced. Thome ranked 2nd in AB/HR (13.58) and AB/BB (4.65). His stats downfalls were his poor AB/SO (3.82) and BA (.282). His best RC is his 91 Bowman, which books for a measly $5. Is it worth buying? Probably not. Even his 92 Bowman books for more ($8). Unfortunately due to circumstances, Thome isn't very collectible. There isn't even a Topps or Topps Traded Tiffany card to buy! Too bad, since he was and IS one of the biggest offensive threats out there.
   
6. Ken Griffey Jr. (Goal: 600 HR, At Break: 586 HR) - Junior only ranked in the top 3 for AB/SO (5.54). I think that all of those injury-laden seasons that he's endured took its toll on his game. It's great to see him playing so well this season, now that he's finally healthy. Even though he's had his problems, he still averaged a HR every 3.95 games (he's averaging a HR every 3.56 games so far this season). His classic 89 UD RC is still a great addition to any collection. It had an average TAC of $31.68 in June, and $48 in the first week of July, but has since gone down and can be found for around $25 to $35 (a very good price!).
   
7. Sammy Sosa (Goal: 600 HR, At Break: 602 HR) - Sosa, like Bonds, will be forever marred by the steroids scandal. He ranked 2nd in this group for games/HR (3.85), behind ARod. He ranked last in extra-base hit BA (.117), AB/BB (9.48), BA (.273) and OBP (.344). I give him credit for working his way back into the bigs this season, after not even playing in '06. He's always been a likable guy, and I respect him for coming back. Sosa has been kind of a feast or famine type of hitter; either going deep or not going anywhere too often (shown by his BA & how often he strikes out - once every 3.82 AB). His 90 Leaf RC was super hot back during his HR race with McGwire, but has since fallen to $20 BV. They can probably be found on auction for nearly half the BV. Unfortunately for Sosa, very few collectors even blinked when he reached #600 (kind of like when Rafael Palmeiro reached 500 HR & 3000 hits). I don't own any Sosa RC's, and I'm sad to say that I probably won't be buying any either. Guess I have a tendency to not buy those players that are plagued by the steroids controversy (I don't buy Bonds either).
   

Thanks for reading!

Best Pitcher Investments: Dan Haren vs Josh Beckett

In my post "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 26-27", which appeared on Sportslizard earlier this week, I included Josh Beckett in my list instead of Dan Haren. I spent a lot time going back & forth on this decision before finally picking Beckett. Ironically in the All-Star game yesterday, both of them pitched 2 innings apiece, back to back. Haren allowed 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB & had 2 K's. Beckett allowed 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB & had 2 K's. I know that in the scheme of things, it doesn't really mean that much, but Beckett's slightly superior performance over Haren's was kind of a confirmation that choosing Beckett to be in my list was the right decision (i guess in more of a symbolic way than anything).

I don't collect either player, but I think that both of them are very good pitchers with bright futures.

Ichiro MVP

The All-Star game just reminds us what a great player Ichiro is. For the past several years (or maybe since his RC year), Ichiro has fallen off the hobby radar, even though his play has remained top notch. In his 6-1/2 year MLB career, he's averaged a .333 BA, 230 hits and 40 SB (.811 SB success%) per 162 games. This season, at the break, he's batting .359 with 23 SB. In '01, he was the AL Rookie of the Year & MVP, and in '04 he set the single season hits record with 262 (and had a .372 BA). He has also won a Gold Glove & been selected as an All-Star every season since he's been in the majors.

Ichiro's most popular RC is his 01 SPx Auto/Jsy, which is stated to be 4 times harder to pull than other Auto/Jsy RC's from that set. Expect to pay $800+ for this one; a deal compared to his 01 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #' 250, which books for $1500, and is near impossible to find on auction.

Ichiro became overshadowed by Albert Pujols in nearly all '01 releases. It's too bad they had to both be in the same RC year. I would hope that demand for his cards picks up after his MVP performance at the All-Star game (1st inside the park HR ever in an AS game!). I would love to pick up one of his Auto RC's, but just can't afford it!

Prince Fielder Auto: Cheaper Alternative

With all of Prince Fielder's Auto's from 02 & 05 skyrocketing, one less expensive alternative (no, not his (RC) autos from 06!) is his 02 UD Minor League Signature Collection Auto. This card didn't start getting hobby attention till after most of the others. Last month it sold for an average TAC of around $75, making it probably his only Auto from either 02 or 05 under $100.

Because it's officially a minor league issue, and it's listed in the Beckett in the "Minor League Price Guide" section (unlike the 02 UD Prospect Premieres set), I'm not sure how high the value could go, but if you're a die hard Fielder or Brewers fan, this one might be the way to go. My rough prediction would be that it could reach the $100 level, especially with all of his other Autos from those two years approaching (and sometimes breaking) the $200 mark. It also depends on his continued success at the plate. If he can keep his BA around .300 & swat 50+ HR this season, I would definitely say the $100 level is achievable.

His UD Update Auto #'d 75 was a sleeper up until mid June. As recently as the 2nd week of June, you could pick one up for around $180 TAC. Then the hobby took notice of the obvious; it's only number to 75! Sales then jumped to the $290 range later that month. So far in July, it, along with all of Fielder's other cards, have softened a little, selling for an average TAC of $230. July has been a relatively quiet month so far for Fielder (only 2 HR), with teammate Ryan Braun taking most of the spotlight (*see previous post for Braun details).

Player Focus: Ryan Braun

Brewers' rookie 3B Ryan Braun is one of the hottest players in the hobby right now. Braun was called up to the bigs from AAA Nashville on 5/24. In his 7 May games, he hit .222 with 1 HR & 4 RBI. I guess that's all the warm-up he needed. In June he hit .382 with 6 HR & 21 RBI, and through his first 8 games of July, .353, 4 HR & 7 RBI. Braun & Prince Fielder are one of best (and youngest) #3 & #4 one-two punches in the majors.

Braun's 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC had an average TAC of $41.73 in June. So far in July, its averaging $62.80 (+50%). His 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto averaged $78.89 in June. In July its averaging $133.76 (+69.5%). His 05 Bowman Heritage SOG Auto averaged $31.64 in June. In July its averaging $47.38 (+50%).

Expect to pay in the $60 to low $70's for his Bowman Sterling Auto, $140 to $160 for his Bowman Chrome Draft Auto, and $45 to $55 for his Bowman Heritage SOG Auto.

Note: On 7/9, one of his Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Ref #'d 500 sold for a TAC of $235.53!

Definition of TAC

For new readers, TAC stands for Total Acquisition Cost. In most cases it would mean sales price + shipping & handling cost. This is the true cost to acquire a card (or anything else bought on auction). I think that this is important to include, especially since sellers charge such varying amounts for s&h. I've seen it range from Free to $15 for one card, although most charge between $2 to $5 (for USPS First Class Mail in a padded envelope).

Thanks for reading!