Underrated: Scott Olsen

23-year-old Marlins pitcher Scott Olsen has had a long string of incidents during his short MLB career, including fights with teammates, making obscene gestures to fans, DUI, resisting arrest and fleeing & eluding police. Despite all that, he's a very decent pitcher. Last season, as a rookie, he went 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA, 8.27 K's/9 IP & 3.74 BB/9 IP. His 166 K's that year gave him the Marlins' record for most K's by a rookie. This season though, he's been pitching below his potential, going 8-7 with a 4.99 ERA so far.

As a result of his drop in performance, Olsen hasn't received much hobby interest this season, so his RC cards are pretty affordable. You can find his 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy (the only Auto RC of his that I've seen) for around $10-15 TAC.

Just like Scott Kazmir & Dontrelle Willis, I believe that this young pitcher is just temporarily off his game, and should rebound sooner or later. Did I also mention that he's also a decent hitter (.242 BA through 7/22)? As for his behavioral concerns, hopefully he'll just outgrow them with time.

Underrated: Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson went from touted Dodgers prospect to forgotten D-Rays common over the past few years. I said it before and still believe that this guy has talent. He's having another challenging season overall, with a 2-9 record & 6.69 ERA. In his last outing vs. the Yankees though, he showed signs of his potential, pitching 6 innings & allowing 4 hits, 0 runs, 4 BB & striking out 4.

Many collectors have already written him off because of his mostly-bad performances, but let's remember a few things about him: 1) he's only 23 years old, 2) he's averaging 7.79 K's/9 IP, and 3) he's still here in the majors (the D-Rays management must see something in this guy to keep him around). I think that there are some collectors out there still holding on to the hope that he blossoms one day (since there aren't that many of his cards up on auction - either that or they don't think the money they'll make is worth their time to list them!).

I think that with a little more experience, he'll be able to become more confident & consistent, reduce his BB/9 IP (4.98), and help fellow D-Rays rotation youngster Scott Kazmir bring some legitimacy to the organization. I already wrote a post in the past about their high potential line-up (hopefully Elijah Dukes will be able to return soon). I still think that the D-Rays are one of the teams of the future, and Jackson could very well be a big part of it.

Jackson has some nice Auto RC's from '03, like his Leaf Limited & Donruss Elite EE TOTC. It might not hurt to buy & hold these cards, since you can probably find them for very low prices.

MLB Deals: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano started the season slow in April (.270, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB), then started picking up momentum in May (.302, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB), and really got hot in June (.336, 11 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB). So far in July though, he seems to have cooled off again, batting .275, 1 HR, 7 RBI & 3 SB (through 7/20).

His 99 Topps Traded Auto seems to be following his performance, with one selling for $157.50 TAC on 7/5, then one selling on 7/15 for $129.50, and then with two selling on 7/19 for $111.45 and $87.78. This is the first time in months that I've seen this card drop below the $100 TAC mark. Collectors are so finicky, not remembering that Soriano is a proven player who's one of a select few that has a chance at reaching a career 400 HR & 400 SB (he's currently at 224 HR & 223 SB). This is his only RC year Auto, and by far his most coveted card from '99. There aren't too many for sale on auction, but if you can find one in the $80's range, I think that it's a good deal. Potentially, that person who bought that card for $87.78 could turn around in a month (if Soriano heats up again) and sell it for around a $60-70 profit (looking at the sale just 2 weeks earlier on 7/5)! Whether its for an investment or your collection, I think that Soriano is a good buy right now.

Player Focus: Yovani Gallardo

Rookie Yovani Gallardo, who replaced Ben Sheets (DL) in the Brewers rotation, had a great outing last night, pitching 6 strong innings & allowing just 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB & had 4 K's, to help his team pummel the D-Backs 10-1. In 7 games (4 starts & 3 reliefs) this year, he has a 2-1 record with a 2.34 ERA, 8.05 K's/9 IP & 2.85 BB/9 IP (very low for a 21 year old!).

Gallardo's 04 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Auto RC #'d 803 has been a solid seller this month, averaging around $50 TAC (*down from close to $60 in June). Seemingly his top base RC is his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400, which is much harder to find on auction, and much more expensive. The last one I saw sold on 7/16 for $171.95 TAC. There's also his Donruss Elite EE Status Auto #'d 95, which sells for around $100 TAC.

Now is probably a good time to invest in Gallardo. He has a lot of potential, and he's playing for one of the hottest young teams in the majors.

Coming Soon (probably within the next week): "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 23 to 25" on Sportslizard.com.

MLB Briefs: Market Movement

Here are some examples of changes in the market so far this week, for some of the players that I've been watching. The first figure is the average TAC for last week, and the second is the average for this week (through 7/17).

• 93 SP Derek Jeter - $48.11 -> $52.88 (+9.9%)
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez - $128.47 -> $96.82 (-24.6%)
• 95 Bowman's Best Andruw Jones - $21.30 -> $25.50 (+19.7%)
• 00 Bowman Draft Grady Sizemore Auto - $285.23 -> $263.88 (-7.5%)
• 02 UD Prospect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto - $198.31 -> $178.63 (-9.9%)
• 01 UD Prospect Premiers Ryan Howard - $26.85 -> $33.39 (+26.6%)
• 05 Bowman Sterling Ryan Braun Auto - $66.79 - > $75.78 (+13.5%)

I don't understand the drop in ARod's SP RC, since he's been hitting well, is closing in on 500 HR, and leads the majors in HR & RBI. My guess would be over saturation of the market.

Andruw Jones is finally heating up, hitting 6 HR & 16 RBI in his last 13 games. His top RC, Bowman's Best, is finally starting to inch up as a result.

While Ryan Braun's other Auto RC's have been pretty flat compared to last week (they've already jumped tremendously), his Bowman Sterling Auto is now starting to receive increased interest, jumping 13.5% so far this week.

Player Focus: Jose Guillen

Since his rookie year in '97, Jose Guillen is has changed teams 8 times, playing for teams in every part of the country. He's had his ups & downs throughout his journey, but it would seem that he's finally found home in Seattle. In his first season with the team, Guillen has been a strong contributor to the Mariners' success thus far, with their 51-38 record (they haven't had a winning season since '03). He's batting .285 (4th on team), with 12 HR (3rd), 55 RBI (T1st) and a .357 OBP (2nd). This month (thru 7/15), he's hitting .426 with 3 HR, 12 RBI and only 5 SO's!

Unfortunately, Guillen has zero hobby love. His top rookie card is his 96 Bowman's Best RC, which can be found for a couple of bucks on auction (one is currently listed at $1.50 BIN, plus $2.50 s&h). If the Mariners can give the Angels a run at the AL West title, or at least catch the wild card, Guillen MIGHT have a chance at getting more exposure (if he continues to play well), but chances are he'll remain in hobby obscurity, just because there are so many good players out there, who are younger & more hyped than him.

Player Updates

• Oliver Perez (NYM, P) - Perez returned from the DL yesterday and was looking pretty good, allowing 2 ER in 6-1/3 IP, with 6 K's. Perez is an underrated strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.43 K's/9 IP through his career. Overall he's having a good season, with 8 W's and a 3.13 ERA. His 02 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 550 & SPx Auto RC #'d 825 are his cards to get. Unfortunately for buyers, there haven't been many up for sale since he was on the DL. Now that he's back, they should start to pop back up. His Ultimate Coll sold for an average TAC of $27.53 in June, and would probably sell for around that much now. You can find his SPx RC for around $20-25.
• Felix Hernandez (SEA, P) - It looks like Hernandez's recovery is coming along well, since being sidelined back in April. He was still inconsistent through May & June, but seems to be getting back into the groove in July, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA & 5.25 K's/9 IP (a little low for him) in his first 3 starts this month. His 04 Bowman Chrome Auto & Bowman's Best Auto RC's are also starting to reappear & rebound. You can find his Chrome for around $130-140 TAC, and his Bowman's Best for $60-65. I think that at these price levels, there's definitely still more room for growth (as we saw back in April).
  
• Grady Sizemore (CLE, CF) - Sizemore has been one of the most hyped-up young players in the league, and his 00 Bowman Draft Picks Auto has been one of the hottest cards in the hobby. Through April, May & June, he was pretty consistently decent in BA, HR, RBI & SB. So far in July, he's pretty much on pace in all those stat areas except for BA, which has dropped to .234, from a previous 3-month average of .285. He's striking out less, but just not getting hits. His OBP is a season low .321 this month, and being a lead-off hitter, this is a very important stat. Collectors seem to have picked up on this drop in performance, with the average TAC for his Bowman Auto falling from $301.23 in June to $288.14 so far in July. You can find them for around $250-270 on auction currently; a far cry from his April levels of $400-500!

Hot / Not - Weekly Briefs

Here is a sampling of RC cards that were either hot or not this past week, compared to the previous week, based on actual average TAC (Total Acquisition Cost) sales. The first amount is last week's average, and the second is this week's, with the %chg in ( ).

• Hot List
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez - $104.06 -> $128.47 (+23.5%)
• 94 SP Alex Rodriguez D/C - $107.88 -> $123.27 (+14.7%)
• 99 Bowman Chrome Matt Holliday - $7.42 -> $19.00 (+156%)
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels - $23.82 -> $32.31 (+35.6%)
• 01 UD Prospect Premiers Ryan Howard - $22.92 -> $26.85 (+17.1%)
• 04 SP Prospects Hunter Pence Auto #'d 600 - $267.77 -> $324.08 (+21%)
• 05 Bowman Sterling Ryan Braun Auto/Jsy - $56.53 -> $66.79 (+18.1%)
• 05 Bowman Chrome Ryan Braun Auto - $120.96 -> $149.73 (+23.8%)
• Not List
• 89 UD Ken Griffey Jr. - $47.98 -> $31.38 (-34.6%)
• 93 SP Derek Jeter - $54.21 -> $41.11 (-24.2%)
• 00 Bowman Draft Grady Sizemore Auto - $300.75 -> $285.23 (-5.2%)
  
• 03 Bowman's Best Dan Haren Auto - $40.75 -> $32.58 (-20%)
• 05 Topps RC Cup Troy Tulowitzki Auto #'d 399 - $34.75 -> $27.91 (-19.7%)

• 07 Bowman Elijah Dukes Auto - $11.09 -> $9.41 (-15.1%)
• 07 Bowman Blue Elijah Dukes Auto - $11.92 -> $10.25 (-14%)

ARod's SP RC & all of Ryan Braun's RC's are currently selling for more than this past week's averages. They continue to be 2 of the hottest players in the hobby.

I don't understand why Griffey's UD RC dropped so much. My only guess is that supply has surpassed demand. Elijah Dukes' RC's continue to drop as expected, since he's pretty much out indefinitely (although there are a few buyers out there paying more than they should be, keeping the average TAC higher than it should be).

Thanks for reading!

Year of Milestone HR's; Who's the Biggest Threat at the Plate?

At the beginning of the season, there were 7 players hoping to reach major HR milestones this season. At the AS break, 2 had already reached their goals, while the remaining 5 are almost there. I've compared each player's career stats, looking at Extra-Base Hit Batting Avg, AB/HR, AB/BB, AB/SO, OBP, Batting Avg, and Games/HR. Here is how they ranked:

1. Barry Bonds (Goal: 756 HR, At Break: 751) - Bonds has been the biggest offensive threat out of these 7 players, leading the group in extra-base hit BA (.147), AB/HR (12.93), AB/BB (3.86), AB/SO (6.39) and OBP (.445). If he didn't have the steroids monkey on his back (and if he was more likable), he would probably be getting much more hobby love than he's getting now. Sure he'll break Aaron's record, but he'll never be universally respected as a player. I don't follow his RC cards, but when I've occasionally checked their auctions, they were selling for under BV.
   
2. Manny Ramirez (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 481 HR) - Ramirez, who has been one of my favorite hitters for a long time, was a close 2nd to Bonds, with an extra-base hit BA of .139, and a group-best career BA of .313. Yes, David Ortiz is a great clutch hitter, but Ramirez is, in my opinion, the better overall hitter. His 92 Bowman RC card (not the foil one) has fallen over the years from $40 down to it's current $25 BV. You can find raw versions on auction for around $15 TAC; a great deal for this future HOFer!
   
3. Alex Rodriguez (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 494 HR) - ARod, one of the hottest players in the hobby right now, led this group in games/HR. On average, he's hit a HR every 3.71 games throughout his career! What can I saw about ARod, other than he's gonna be the youngest player to reach the 500 HR mark, he'll probably (hopefully) be the one to break Bonds' career HR total (after Bonds breaks Aaron's 755), and he's a future HOFer. His 94 SP RC, which had an average TAC of $84 in June, can now be found on auction for around $120 to $140 TAC. Should have bought this one back in April, when it was selling for $50!
   
4. Frank Thomas (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 501 HR) - I really feel for the Big Hurt. Back in the mid 90's, he, along with Griffey Jr. & Ripken, were the hottest players in the hobby. Since then, injuries have plagued Thomas' career, often times making it seem questionable if he was even going to have a chance at the 500 mark. I'm glad to see him do it, even if it's in a Blue Jays uniform (which I'm still not used to seeing!). Thomas, who has a .303 career BA, ranked 2nd in this group in both OBP (.422) and AB/SO (5.93). His 90 Leaf RC has a BV of $20, and can be found for less on auction. It wouldn't hurt to have 1 or 2 of these in your collection (I personally have 2).
   
5. Jim Thome (Goal: 500 HR, At Break: 486 HR) - Thome seems to get almost no hobby interest, even though he'll probably reach the 500 HR mark either this season, or early next season. A big part of that is because all of his RC cards (and everyone else from '91) are way overproduced. Thome ranked 2nd in AB/HR (13.58) and AB/BB (4.65). His stats downfalls were his poor AB/SO (3.82) and BA (.282). His best RC is his 91 Bowman, which books for a measly $5. Is it worth buying? Probably not. Even his 92 Bowman books for more ($8). Unfortunately due to circumstances, Thome isn't very collectible. There isn't even a Topps or Topps Traded Tiffany card to buy! Too bad, since he was and IS one of the biggest offensive threats out there.
   
6. Ken Griffey Jr. (Goal: 600 HR, At Break: 586 HR) - Junior only ranked in the top 3 for AB/SO (5.54). I think that all of those injury-laden seasons that he's endured took its toll on his game. It's great to see him playing so well this season, now that he's finally healthy. Even though he's had his problems, he still averaged a HR every 3.95 games (he's averaging a HR every 3.56 games so far this season). His classic 89 UD RC is still a great addition to any collection. It had an average TAC of $31.68 in June, and $48 in the first week of July, but has since gone down and can be found for around $25 to $35 (a very good price!).
   
7. Sammy Sosa (Goal: 600 HR, At Break: 602 HR) - Sosa, like Bonds, will be forever marred by the steroids scandal. He ranked 2nd in this group for games/HR (3.85), behind ARod. He ranked last in extra-base hit BA (.117), AB/BB (9.48), BA (.273) and OBP (.344). I give him credit for working his way back into the bigs this season, after not even playing in '06. He's always been a likable guy, and I respect him for coming back. Sosa has been kind of a feast or famine type of hitter; either going deep or not going anywhere too often (shown by his BA & how often he strikes out - once every 3.82 AB). His 90 Leaf RC was super hot back during his HR race with McGwire, but has since fallen to $20 BV. They can probably be found on auction for nearly half the BV. Unfortunately for Sosa, very few collectors even blinked when he reached #600 (kind of like when Rafael Palmeiro reached 500 HR & 3000 hits). I don't own any Sosa RC's, and I'm sad to say that I probably won't be buying any either. Guess I have a tendency to not buy those players that are plagued by the steroids controversy (I don't buy Bonds either).
   

Thanks for reading!

Best Pitcher Investments: Dan Haren vs Josh Beckett

In my post "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 26-27", which appeared on Sportslizard earlier this week, I included Josh Beckett in my list instead of Dan Haren. I spent a lot time going back & forth on this decision before finally picking Beckett. Ironically in the All-Star game yesterday, both of them pitched 2 innings apiece, back to back. Haren allowed 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB & had 2 K's. Beckett allowed 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB & had 2 K's. I know that in the scheme of things, it doesn't really mean that much, but Beckett's slightly superior performance over Haren's was kind of a confirmation that choosing Beckett to be in my list was the right decision (i guess in more of a symbolic way than anything).

I don't collect either player, but I think that both of them are very good pitchers with bright futures.

Ichiro MVP

The All-Star game just reminds us what a great player Ichiro is. For the past several years (or maybe since his RC year), Ichiro has fallen off the hobby radar, even though his play has remained top notch. In his 6-1/2 year MLB career, he's averaged a .333 BA, 230 hits and 40 SB (.811 SB success%) per 162 games. This season, at the break, he's batting .359 with 23 SB. In '01, he was the AL Rookie of the Year & MVP, and in '04 he set the single season hits record with 262 (and had a .372 BA). He has also won a Gold Glove & been selected as an All-Star every season since he's been in the majors.

Ichiro's most popular RC is his 01 SPx Auto/Jsy, which is stated to be 4 times harder to pull than other Auto/Jsy RC's from that set. Expect to pay $800+ for this one; a deal compared to his 01 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #' 250, which books for $1500, and is near impossible to find on auction.

Ichiro became overshadowed by Albert Pujols in nearly all '01 releases. It's too bad they had to both be in the same RC year. I would hope that demand for his cards picks up after his MVP performance at the All-Star game (1st inside the park HR ever in an AS game!). I would love to pick up one of his Auto RC's, but just can't afford it!

Prince Fielder Auto: Cheaper Alternative

With all of Prince Fielder's Auto's from 02 & 05 skyrocketing, one less expensive alternative (no, not his (RC) autos from 06!) is his 02 UD Minor League Signature Collection Auto. This card didn't start getting hobby attention till after most of the others. Last month it sold for an average TAC of around $75, making it probably his only Auto from either 02 or 05 under $100.

Because it's officially a minor league issue, and it's listed in the Beckett in the "Minor League Price Guide" section (unlike the 02 UD Prospect Premieres set), I'm not sure how high the value could go, but if you're a die hard Fielder or Brewers fan, this one might be the way to go. My rough prediction would be that it could reach the $100 level, especially with all of his other Autos from those two years approaching (and sometimes breaking) the $200 mark. It also depends on his continued success at the plate. If he can keep his BA around .300 & swat 50+ HR this season, I would definitely say the $100 level is achievable.

His UD Update Auto #'d 75 was a sleeper up until mid June. As recently as the 2nd week of June, you could pick one up for around $180 TAC. Then the hobby took notice of the obvious; it's only number to 75! Sales then jumped to the $290 range later that month. So far in July, it, along with all of Fielder's other cards, have softened a little, selling for an average TAC of $230. July has been a relatively quiet month so far for Fielder (only 2 HR), with teammate Ryan Braun taking most of the spotlight (*see previous post for Braun details).

Player Focus: Ryan Braun

Brewers' rookie 3B Ryan Braun is one of the hottest players in the hobby right now. Braun was called up to the bigs from AAA Nashville on 5/24. In his 7 May games, he hit .222 with 1 HR & 4 RBI. I guess that's all the warm-up he needed. In June he hit .382 with 6 HR & 21 RBI, and through his first 8 games of July, .353, 4 HR & 7 RBI. Braun & Prince Fielder are one of best (and youngest) #3 & #4 one-two punches in the majors.

Braun's 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC had an average TAC of $41.73 in June. So far in July, its averaging $62.80 (+50%). His 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto averaged $78.89 in June. In July its averaging $133.76 (+69.5%). His 05 Bowman Heritage SOG Auto averaged $31.64 in June. In July its averaging $47.38 (+50%).

Expect to pay in the $60 to low $70's for his Bowman Sterling Auto, $140 to $160 for his Bowman Chrome Draft Auto, and $45 to $55 for his Bowman Heritage SOG Auto.

Note: On 7/9, one of his Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Ref #'d 500 sold for a TAC of $235.53!

Definition of TAC

For new readers, TAC stands for Total Acquisition Cost. In most cases it would mean sales price + shipping & handling cost. This is the true cost to acquire a card (or anything else bought on auction). I think that this is important to include, especially since sellers charge such varying amounts for s&h. I've seen it range from Free to $15 for one card, although most charge between $2 to $5 (for USPS First Class Mail in a padded envelope).

Thanks for reading!

Resurgence of Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard had a dismal start this season, batting .222 with 9 HR & 30 RBI through April & May. Then, Howard started to pick things up, hitting .280 with 10 HR & 27 RBI in June, and he's batting over .300 so far in July. His 01 UD Prospect Premieres XRC hit one of its lowest points last month, averaging around $20 TAC (they could be found for as low as $15 on some days). It's now starting to rebound, selling in the $20 to $25 range. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC was averaging around $375 TAC last month. I haven't seen any ungraded ones on auction yet in July, but I expect that they'll sell for around $400 (if not more) now. *Note: one 03 Bowman's Best Blue Auto sold on 6/10 for $870 TAC.

These two cards are my favs for Howard. I was tracking his 03 Bowman Chrome Draft RC also, but didn't think it was as unique or interesting as his XRC from 01. His 03 Donruss Elite TOTC Auto #'d 100 is just too scare (I've only seen a couple raw versions for sale this year).

I think that Howard's key RC's are still undervalued at current TAC levels, with quite a bit of upside potential. I'm holding on to the ones I have, and may even pick up a few more before he joins A Rod & Fielder in the HR race.

Top Pitcher Investments: Age 28 to 30

Here are my picks for top investments for pitchers aged 28 to 30:

1. Johan Santana (MIN, 00 RC year) - Santana has consistently been a high strikeout & low ERA pitcher throughout his career (9.47 K's/9 IP & 3.16 ERA). Since 2004 (his first full season as a starter), he has posted a 64-25 record (.719 win%), 873 K's (9.66 K's/9 IP) and a 2.76 ERA. He has several RC cards to choose from, with his best two being 00 Finest #'d 3000 & 00 Bowman's Best #'d 2999. There aren't many on auction, but those that are can usually be had for below BV. Overall, Santana has been undervalued by the hobby (except for the occasional spike here & there), and his #'d RC's could be potential gems, considering that he very well could be a 4000 K's & 300 W's career pitcher. There isn't a more dominant strike-out pitcher in this age group (Kerry Wood could've been, if he stayed healthy).
   
2. Barry Zito (SF, 00 RC year) - I chose Zito as my #2 pick because of three main reasons: 1) He was one of the most well rounded pitchers in this group, with over 100 career W's, a mid 3.00's ERA and over 1500 K's, 2) He has a good chance at reaching 3000 K's & 300 W's by the end of his career, and 3) He's having a subpar year, with 6-8 record & 4.65 ERA (which could be the result of him switching to the NL). These three points spell investment opportunity. Because he's not playing well, most collectors will be focusing on other players, which should depress selling prices. I think that by next season he'll be able to adjust to playing in the NL (especially since the rest of his life has probably remained unchanged, being that he's playing across the bay from his old team). If you can find his 00 SPx Auto RC #'d 1500 at a good price, BUY IT! The two other cards to get would be his 00 Bowman Draft Picks Auto & Topps Traded Auto. Both can be found for under BV.
   
3. Roy Oswalt (HOU, 00 RC year) - Oswalt has been one of the most consistent pitchers over the last several years, posting a career 3.09 ERA and 105-52 record (.669 Win% - better than the Astros .534 win% during his 6+ year tenure with the team). He would've been #1 or #2 on my list if his RC cards weren't so expensive already. He's been good, but not good enough to justify being so much more than Barry Zito & Ben Sheets (his SPx RC #'d 1600 (non-auto) is like double the price of Zito's SPx Auto RC #'d 1500!). It seems that the hobby has already built a lot of future value into his RC prices, so I don't think that his cards have as much upside potential compared to some of the other pitchers in this age group. I think that he'll reach the 3000 K's milestone, but will fall short of 300 W's (maybe reach 270).
   

• Ben Sheets (MIL, 00 RC year) Sheets is my pick for honorable mention. He's got great skills, and is having a terrific season thus far, but his career win% was what kept him out; he's 71-72 (.496 win%). Zito and he are the same age, yet Zito has 108 W's (at least two seasons' worth of W's more). I do think that things are looking up for Sheets' future though, and that with this hot new Brewer's offense, he'll be able to get more W's than he has in the past. His 00 SPx Auto RC #'d 1500 could very well be a great investment, so keep your eye out for one that can be had at a good price!

Coming up: Pitcher Investments Age 26-27; this post will be on Sportslizard.com. Thanks for reading!

Record A Rod RC Card Sale!

I've been writing about how Alex Rodriguez's 94 SP RC has been increasing in TAC value each week, but this is just unconceivable. Today (7/1), one sold for a whopping $240 TAC! The seller smartly included everything but the kitchen sink in the title: "1994 94 SP ALEX RODRIGUEZ 'AROD' ROOKIE CARD RC #15 WOW", with "AMAZING CONDITION (LOOK) ! Should Be Graded BGS or PSA" in the subtitle. You notice that it doesn't mention that card should be graded any specific BGS or PSA grade. Yet, it was still able to garner 25 bids & 281 views.

My hat comes off to this seller. This exemplifies what the whole auction process is about. Supply & demand at it's finest! Without these types of sales, I think that I would grow very bored of watching the card market!

*Note: This same seller sold a 93 SP Derek Jeter RC today for a TAC of $110.49 (more than double the average TAC for the past month!).

Good Deals: Felix Hernandez Auto RC's

Felix Hernandez is 4-4 with a 4.33 ERA for the season; a drastic drop in performance from his 2-0, 0.00 ERA start in April. This is expected though, since he's been recovering from injury. When he returned in May, he went 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA (but still had 10.8 K's/9 IP). In June, he pitched a little better, going 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA (and 8.9 K's/9 IP). As we can obviously see, he's slowly getting his form back, and also, he never lost the ability to strike out batters.

I thought that demand for his 04 Bowman Chrome Auto RC & 04 Bowman's Best Auto RC would have already started to rebound, but surprisingly they haven't. There aren't that many out there listed on auction (people are waiting for the rebound to get top dollar), but those that are listed are selling at very reasonable price levels. I saw a BC Auto sell this past month for $113.75 TAC (was selling for around $200 in April). Also saw a BB Auto sell for $50.66 TAC (was selling for $100+ in April). You can expect to pay around $130 to $140 for his BC Ref Auto and $200 to $210 for his BC Xfractor Auto.

If you think about it, how many 21 year olds are at his level of play? You look at the other hot young pitchers, with around the same amount of major league experience, and most of them are in the 24 to 26 age range. He's 21, and already has the ability to dominate. Once he gains consistency & gets back to full health, he's gonna be unstoppable. I'm predicting that July will be the month that his cards start to climb again.

Commentary: RC vs (RC) Cards

I don't know about everyone else, but I find the "(RC)" rookie very irritating! I think that they should not have done this with players who already had RC's released in previous years. They should have made a clean start with, say, 2008 or whenever, and just let all those rookies from before stand as is. Now when you do a search for a player, like Prince Fielder RC, you get tons of 06 cards, along with the 05 "RCs" and 02 "XRCs". I tried to find Troy Tulowitzki's Auto rookie cards and the search results yielded 41 cards from 07, and ONE from 05 (the year of his initial or real "RC" cards).

It seems like collectors are still buying the "(RC)" cards though, so maybe most people don't mind. Of course the "RC" versions from earlier years are yielding better prices, but still...I wouldn't spend my money on a card that isn't really a player's RC card (in my opinion). When you look at your Beckett at the sets from 06, there are so few "RC" cards, along side mostly "(RC)" cards. I can honestly say that I did not buy one single box, pack or product from 06. I wonder if that was a low sales year for baseball cards? 07 products should do better, since they have some popular real "RC" cards of players like Daisuke Matsuzaka & Andrew Miller. This will probably continue until all of the prospects with pre-call up releases are either called up or become career minor leaguers. Then we can start fresh with the real "RCs", and go on with our collecting lives (maybe by 2010?).

Anyway, just thought I'd vent some of my ebay search frustrations.

MLB Weekly Market Briefs

Here are some of the weekly average RC TAC value changes that I've observed in the market this month (Week 1 = 6/3 - 6/9, Week 2 = 6/10 - 6/16, Week 3 = 6/17 - 6/23) :

• 89 UD K Griffey Jr. - Week 1 - $21.90, Week 2 - $27.90, Week 3 - $27.96
• 93 SP D Jeter - Week 1 - $46.50, Week 2 - $38.13, Week 3 - $50.28
• 01 BC Ref J Peavy - Week 1 - $45.58, Week 2 - $47.71, Week 3 - $52.83
• 02 UD Prosp Premieres P Fielder Auto - Week 2 - $201.50, Week 3 - $202.78
• 05 BC J Verlander Auto - Week 2 - $73.75, Week 2 - $81.00
• 05 BCD R Braun Auto - Week 1 - $82.80, Week 2 - $69.18, Week 3 - $76.82
• 07 B E Dukes Auto - Week 1 - $23.92, Week 2 - $16.71, Week 3 - $13.35
• 07 B E Dukes Auto #'d 500 - Week 1 - $22.52, Week 2 - $19.56, Week 3 - $18.19
• 07 B A Miller Auto - Week 2 - $29.21, Week 3 - $26.71
• 07 B A Miller Auto #'d 250 - Week 2 - $74.27, Week 3 - $72.58

I predict that Griffey's UD RC will increase this next week, as he gets closer to reaching the 600 HR mark (he just hit 2 HR today vs. the Mariners). All of Peavy's RC's may experience some softening, after he picked up his 2nd loss of the season today, getting out-dueled by Josh Beckett. Verlander's RC's should continue their ascent. He's 4-0 this month, with a 1.24 ERA & 10.86 K's/9 IP. Just heard on ESPN this week that Dukes was sent down to the minors and is inactive due to his personal issues. I was expecting his RC's to plummet with the news, but they've been moving down at a much more moderate pace (he IS young & full of raw talent, so he has a good chance of being back in the majors soon). Fielder's 02 UD PP Auto XRC has been on fire, while his RC's from 05 have softened some, selling for less than they did a week or two ago. He still leads the NL in HR & RBI, so don't expect any big drop in prices unless he hits a major slump.

For those cards that don't show a "Week 1", its because I didn't have any data for it. For those of you that aren't sure about the abbreviations that I used for the brands (though I'm sure most you know) they are: "UD" - Upper Deck, "BC" - Bowman Chrome, "BCD" - Bowman Chrome Draft, and "B" - Bowman.

A Rod On Top Again

Alex Rodriguez has been hot again this month, after a slow May, hitting .440 with 9 HR & 31 RBI through 6/23. His 94 SP RC has been just as hot, jumping from an average TAC of $61.65 during the first week of the month, to $75.88 the 2nd week, to now $91.13 the 3rd week!

Activity on his 94 SP Die-Cut RC has also been decent, when you can find one. I've been seeing about one D/C for every five or six base RC's for sale on auction (at the most). Expect to pay between $90 to $100 TAC (which is actually a good price considering the base sells for pretty much the same amount). There's another D/C auction ending tomorrow, which will give us a good idea of where the market is right now (I'm expecting it to break the $100 mark, especially after A Rod went 8 for 10 in his last two games).

Rockies Enjoying Their Holliday

The Colorado Rockies are off to a strong start this season, with a 37-34 record (they haven't had a winning season since 2000, when they went 82-80). Unfortunately, the NL West is turning out to be a very competitive division, with the Padres, D-Backs & Dodgers ahead of them in the standings. A lot of their success is due to their 1 through 4 hitters; CF Willy Taveras (.315, 17 SB), 2B Kazuo Matsui (.316, 12 SB), LF Matt Holliday (.366, 13 HR, 57 RBI) and Todd Helton (.326, 6 HR, 37 RBI). They also have RF Brad Hawpe (.291, 12 HR, 47 RBI) & SS Troy Tulowitzki (.278, 4 HR, 29 RBI) contributing later in the line-up.

Typically when you think about the Rockies, Todd Helton obviously comes to mind as the star hitter. But, the 33 year old Helton has slowed down in the past few years, going from batting .347, 32 HR & 96 RBI in '04, to .320, 20 HR & 79 RBI in '05, to .302, 15 HR & 81 RBI in '06. Luckily for the Rockies they had the addition of Matt Holliday in '04, who has improved every season he's been with the team, hitting .290, 14 HR & 57 RBI in '04, .307, 19 HR & 87 RBI in '05 and .326, 34 HR & 114 RBI in '06 (kind of like a passing the torch type of deal huh?).

Holliday has been consistently hitting well every month so far this season (guess you have to for a .366 BA!), and is on track to have 200+ hits, 130 RBI & 30 HR. He doesn't have any Auto RC's, so his key base from '99 would be his Bowman Chrome RC. Expect to pay between $10 to $15 TAC on auction.

I'm guessing that the Rockies' NL West competitors will probably start choking as the season winds down (like they often unfortunately do), so if they can maintain their consistent level of play (like how they just swept the Yankees this week), they have a chance to finally go to the playoffs again (the last & only time was in '95).

Player Focus: Felix Hernandez Update

Felix Hernandez, the hottest pitcher in the majors during the first couple of weeks of the season, has had a hard time getting back into the swing of things since coming off the DL last month. Through his first 7 starts back, he went 2-3, with around a 4.90 ERA, and allowed 67 hits & 7 HR. Only bright spot was that he averaged around 9.8 K's/9 IP.

Yesterday vs. the Pirates, Felix finally seemed to be back to his old dominant self. He tossed 8 shut-out innings, allowing 6 hits & 1 BB, and struck out 9. If this is truly the turning point, his Auto RC's are going to start heading up again. For those of you that picked a few (or even one) of them up during his time on the DL or while he's been recovering, I think that you'll be very happy with your investment.

Player Focus: Roy Halladay

Roy Halladay has emerged as the star pitcher from the 1997 "hobby" RC class. Sets from 97 included RC's of pitchers like Kerry Wood, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, John Patterson Adam Eaton & Brad Penny. None of these pitchers have had the consistent success that Halladay has had, either because of injuries, etc. Over the last 5 seasons, he boasts a 77-31 record (71.3% wins), 1000 IP, and a 3.17 ERA. In 03 he won 22 games and had 204 K's, earning him the AL Cy Young.

This season, he had a great start, going 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA & 6.3 K's/9 IP in April. In May, he went down with an appendicitis and was expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks (he returned in less than 3). He only had 3 starts in May, struggling to a 1-2 record, and 8.31 ERA with 6.2 K's/9 IP. He began June by getting rocked by the D-Rays for 7 ER in 3-1/3 IP, but has been able to bounce back quite well, going 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA & 4.8 K's/9 IP in his next 3 starts. Halladay is a definite work horse. On 4/13, he went 10 innings, allowing only 6 hits & 1 ER, to outlast & beat the Tigers & their ace, Jeremy Bonderman.

His two best cards from 97 are his Bowman Chrome RC & Bowman Auto (only RC year Auto). You can probably find his Chrome RC for less than $10 TAC, and I saw one of his Bowman Auto's sell this month for $74 TAC. I think that his key RC's could be strong investments down the road, if you can find them for decent prices.

Most Undervalued Pitcher: Brad Penny

Brad Penny has been having an All-Star year, but his ONE base RC card remains unchanged from its near-common status. His 97 Bowman RC books for $2.50, and can be found for right around that price (incl s&h) on auction.

Penny is 9-1 with a 2.12 ERA & around 6 K's/9 IP, making him #2 in the NL for ERA and tied for #1 for W's. He went 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in April, 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in May, and is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in June so far. What's the deal with this lack of hobby love? He's pitching great, he only has one base RC card and he's playing for a large market playoff contender. Something doesn't add up. Could it be that his one RC card isn't rare enough?

Penny is having a career season, and I think that his values should go up accordingly. Hopefully the hobby will take notice and boost interest in the Dodgers' top ace.

MLB Briefs

Here are some updates for players that I'm watching, comparing their month to month on-field performances, and predicting how some of their key RC's will do. (All June stats are through 6/17).

• Adrian Gonzalez (SD) - Gonzalez started the season hot, hitting .309, 7 HR & 25 RBI in April. He then cooled in May with .284, 5 HR & 12 RBI. In June, he's hitting .295, 2 HR & 13 RBI. I'm thinking that he's now heating back up, and his key RC's will probably follow. His best RC year card is his 00 Bowman Draft Auto (BV $100).
• Manny Ramirez (BOS) - Ramirez, who has been one of the best hitters in the game over the last decade, had a very slow April, hitting .202 with 3 HR & 13 RBI. He found his swing in May, hitting .327, 5 HR & 18 RBI. In June, he's hitting .388, 2 HR & 7 RBI, making me think that the usual big hitting Manny is back to stay. Unfortunately, Ramirez hasn't received much hobby love over the years, even though he's a career .313 batter, and averages 41 HR/162 game. I hope that as he approaches the 500 career HR mark (he currently has 480) he'll get more attention. His best RC is his 92 Bowman #532 (not his Foil #676). You can probably find them on auction in the $10-15 TAC range (BV $25).
• J.J. Hardy (MIL) - Hardy has emerged as one of the best hitting SS in the majors. He had a decent start this season, hitting .282, 6 HR & 17 RBI in April. Then in May, he tore it up, hitting .325, 9 HR & 29 RBI! So far in June though he's slowed down, hitting .200, 2 HR & 3 RBI. His 02 UD USA Auto #'d 375 has been a hot seller throughout the season, averaging a TAC of $77 in June. Sales have ranged between $56 & $95 this month, so if you watch carefully, you may be able score one for a very decent price (especially if his production doesn't pick back up soon).
• Hunter Pence (HOU) - Pence is one of the hottest players in the hobby right now. He was called up at the end of April, and hit .342, 4 HR, 19 RBI & 3 SB in May. So far in June, he's hitting .328, 1 HR, 9 RBI & 2 SB. Pence has been one of the few bright spots on this slumping Astros team (30-40 record this season). His key Auto RC's have already elevated to superstar levels. Expect to pay around $95 to $100 for his 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto #'d 672, $250 to $270 for his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 600 and $135 to $140 for his 04 Fleer Hot Prospects Auto #'d 299. You can probably find these cards for a little lower if you look carefully (i.e. find auctions ending during the day or at odd times, etc...).
  

Thanks for reading!

MLB Market Briefs

Here are some recent real market TAC values.

• Cole Hamels (9-2, 3.47 ERA, 9.53 K's/9) - Hamels leads the NL in W's & K's. His 02 Bowman Chrome Draft RC has been selling at an average TAC of around $35 this month. Going forward, expect to pay in the high $30's to low $40's range.
• Andrew Miller (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 5.68 K's/9 IP) - 22 year old Miller has been off to a decent start this season in the majors. After pitching 6 shut-out innings in his first start in May, he slipped a little in his next outing, allowing 4 ER in 5.1 IP. He's still young, and obviously has talent, so just need to give some time to adjust and he should be fine. This month, his 07 Bowman Auto has been selling for an average TAC of $29, his Bowman Blue Auto #'d 500 for $33.50, and his UD Spectrum Auto RC for $26. One cool card to get is his UD Spectrum Auto Die-Cut RC #'d 50 (one sold for $36.49 on 6/12).
• Alex Rodriguez - (.309, 26 HR, 70 RBI) As expected, A Rod's key 94 SP RC is back on fire, as he solidifies his place on top of the HR & RBI leaderboard. For the past week, it's averaged a TAC of $81, up about $20 from the week before (+33%!). Expect to pay between $85 to $95 now, depending on your purchase timing.
• Scott Kazmir (4-3, 4.07 ERA, 9.21 K's/9 IP) - Don't let Kazmir's stats so far this year fool you. Last season he had an impressive 10-8 record, 3.24 ERA & 10.17 K's/9 IP for the lowly D-Rays (who lost 101 games in '06). Once he breaks out of his slump, you'll start to see interest in his cards return. Now is a good time to pick up his 02 UD Prospect Premieres Auto & 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy, which can be found in the low $40's & low $20's respectively.
  
• Ian Snell (6-4, 2.63 ERA, 7.37 K's/9 IP) - Snell is the top ace for a Pirates team that is full of young, talented (but under achieving) starting pitchers (i.e. Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny). In his 3 June starts, he's 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA & 7.5 K's/9 IP. I feel that his cards are still undervalued in the hobby, and can be found at very affordable TAC values. My favorite is his 04 SP Authentic Auto #'d 999, which can probably be found for $20 or maybe even less.
  

Market Shifts

Here are some of the recent market movements that I've observed for players on my watch list:

• Ken Griffey Jr. - Last month, Griffey's 89 UD RC was selling for a TAC of just less than $20. So far in June, demand has been picking, as he closes in on the prestigious 600 HR career mark. He's 22 HR away, and at his current pace, he should reach this milestone before the end of the season. His June avg TAC is at $24.85; about a 20-25% increase vs. May. As long as he stays healthy and keeps on hitting, expect this classic RC to continue to rise.
• Alex Rodriguez - A Rod's 94 SP RC has had its ups & downs this season. From the beginning of June through 6/10, it averaged $61.17 TAC. On 6/10 he hit 2 HR, sparking another jump in his top RC card. Since 6/11, the average TAC has risen to $78.84; a 29% increase! In addition to him leading the majors in HR & RBI this season, there's also the countdown for him to become the youngest member of the 500 HR club. He's 11 away, so I'm guessing that he'll hit number 500 sometime in July. If he can stay on track, I can only see positives for his key RC's.
  
• Cole Hamels - Hamels has been one of the hottest pitchers in the league, leading the NL with 9 W's & 104 K's. His ERA of 3.47 isn't the best (but not bad either), but collectors are willing to overlook that for now, paying above book for his 02 Bowman Chrome Draft RC. Expect to dish out $35 to $40 TAC for this one.
  
• Elijah Dukes - Dukes' off the field problems continue to accumulate. In addition to the the restraining order filed by his wife, he has to contend with cases against him for marijuana possession & having consensual sex with a 17-year old girl, who claims to be carrying his baby. He wasn't in the D-Rays' line-up yesterday, and it sounds kinds of questionable about his future with the team. All 3 versions of his 07 Bowman Auto RC's have experienced big drops in TAC this week vs. last week. His base went from $23.92 to $16.71 (-30%), his Blue #'d 500 went from $22.52 to $18.70 (-17%), and his Orange #'d 250 went from $36.87 to $18.80 (-49%). I expect prices to keep falling until it's confirmed that Dukes will return. *Just read that Dukes was with the team today for their game against the Padres, but wasn't included in the line-up.
  

Thanks for reading!

Jake Peavy Slumping?

Oh, did I say Jake Peavy was in a slump (see my post "Who's Hot, Who's Not" from yesterday on Sports Lizard)? What was I thinking! Guess he just had a 2-game stumble (not long enough to be called a slump). He was back with a fury tonight vs. the D-Rays! Maybe he got inspired watching the highlights of Justin Verlander's no-no yesterday. Whatever it was, I'm glad to see him back on top of his game. He pitched 7 strong innings, allowing 2 hits, 0 runs & 3 BB, with 8 K's. It would've been pretty pointless to bring him back in the 8th & risk an injury, since the Padres were up 9-0 after Terrmel Sledge's solo HR in the top of the inning.

Maybe now his 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC will break out of the $40's TAC that it's been stuck in this month (Actual avg TAC has been around $46). I hope to also see some of those 01 Topps Fusion Auto's popping up again (I haven't seen any on auction this month).

Breaking News: Verlander Tosses No-No!

Justin Verlander just completed a no-no tonight vs. the hot hitting Brewers. He went 9 IP with 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 BB & 12 K's. Quite the masterpiece. Verlander gets great movement on his breaking pitches, and his fastball can hit 100+ mph.

On the season, he's now 7-2 with 2.79 ERA and 68 K's in 84 IP. After having a rough May (3.92 ERA), he's been untouchable in his first two June starts, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA & 18 K's in 16 IP. Watch his Auto RC's start to rise out of their slump very soon!

Commentary: 2007 Topps Auto RC Releases

I was so excited last week to finally see some Elijah Dukes Auto RC's for sale (before that there were only his Finest Redemption RC's). The two product releases that I'm talking about are 07 Bowman & Topps Co-Signers. After watching them for a week, I found that the Co-Signers had way too many parallel versions. They were #'d to 50,75,100,125,150,175,225,250,275! Why in the world would anyone come out with such a ridiculous product?! When you have so many versions with similar serial #'s, all you do is dilute the value of all of them. Basically you're gonna have two levels of TAC value (for 9 versions!). In my opinion, this is a waste of Auto RC's. Topps doesn't win with this either. They have to use a different color for each version (& different serial #), and run each parallel separately, which I'm sure creates a loss in production efficiency. The Product/Brand Manager (or whoever is responsible for making these decisions) should really rethink their strategy for RC cards. As a collector, I wouldn't buy any of them. Up until a few years ago, Topps was the clear #1 card company for Baseball RC's. Recently, Upper Deck has been releasing better products than them, with brands like SPx, Ultimate Collection & UD Prospect Premieres. Pretty soon, the only advantage that Topps will have is their exclusivity with some of the players. Doesn't Topps want people to buy their cards because of their quality, not because they have no choice if they want a particular player?

I think that Bowman is a better bet for Dukes Auto RC's. They have a base non-#'d version, a Blue #'d 500 and an Orange #'d 250 (there's also a Gold version, but I haven't seen any on auction yet). I would definitely steer clear of the Co-Signers RC's.

Follow Up: Alfonso Soriano

Wow! Did you see Soriano's 3 HR game yesterday? I just did a "Player Focus" on him the 2 days before. In the next 2 games after that, he went 6 for 8 with 3 HR, a triple & 4 RBI. I think that Soriano & Felix Pie make a great 1-2 combo in the Cubs' lineup. Both guys are threats at the plate & on the bases.

There's been a lot of talk about Grady Sizemore this season, but I would have to say that Soriano is probably the better hobby value right now for lead off hitters, when comparing each of their sole RC year Autos to eachother. Sizemore's 00 Bowman Draft Auto has been selling for close to $300 TAC this month (it was closer to $400-$500 in April-May), while Soriano's 99 Topps Traded Auto can be had for around $100-$150 TAC, giving it more room to grow in value, compared to Sizemore's card, which is already quite high.

Recent Call-Up: Joey Gathright

Joey Gathright was called up to KC yesterday to play the outfield & bat in the 9th spot. In his first two games, vs. the AL Central leading Indians, he went 5 for 7 (.714 BA), with 1 SB & 2 RBI. Gathright is known for his speed, and could be a great asset as a base stealer. The Royals, who have the 2nd worst record in the majors (after Texas) could use this kind of spark.

Gathright RC's can be found in 2004 releases. If you do a search on ebay, you'll find that all of his RC cards are listed as fixed price "buy it now" auctions. If he continues his strong play, expect more people to start digging his RC's out of their commons boxes to sell.

The best RC's listed for sale are his 04 Donruss World Series Auto RC #'d 1000 & 04 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Auto RC #'d 1000. Makes me think that Donruss may have had the exclusive for his Auto's his RC year.

Player Focus: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano is one of the best all around players in the game. In his career, he has 215 HR & 218 SB. Last season with the Nationals he had an amazing 46 HR & 41 SB! This year, his first with the Cubs, he started out slow, hitting .270 with 0 HR & 2 SB in April. Then, in May, he pick up the pace hitting .302 with 4 HR & 6 SB. So far in June (4 games), he's hitting .579 with 3 HR & 0 SB.

I expect his 99 Topps Traded Auto, his only RC year Auto, to jump in price very soon. Right now, you might still be able to find one at a decent TAC, but don't wait too long. If he continues to improve his production like he has been, the ceiling for this card's value could still be quite a ways away. Since there aren't many listed on auction right now, I'm guessing people are waiting for prices to jump before selling. His only other RC card that appears to be getting some attention is his 99 Bowman Chrome RC (both graded & ungraded).

Player Focus: Elijah Dukes (with Topps commentary at the end)

Right when we thought that Elijah Dukes' problems off the field were coming to an end...Now Dukes' wife filed a protective order barring him from contacting her for a year, and also requiring him to undergo a psychiatric evaluation before he can see their 2 children. This came after he allegedly threatened her life.

It's uncertain what impact this could have on his on-field performance. Maybe with all of this drama out of his life now, he'll be able to concentrate more on the game. Or, maybe, the temporary loss of his family will prevent him from being able to focus. Since the 5/31 release of this news, Dukes has gone 0 for 8. This, against a KC pitching staff boasting a lackluster 4.73 ERA (ranked 11th out of 14 in the AL). Hopefully this is not an indication of what's to come. I think that his team will support him, because they believe in his potential, and he should snap back into ballplayer mode and resume his development into a potent threat at the plate within the next month or so.

Up until last week, the only MLB RC's for Dukes listed on auction were his 07 Finest Redemption cards. All of the sudden, there's a flood of Auto RC's out there. 07 Bowman & Topps Co-signers have multiple variations of his Auto RC (For Bowman, I've seen the non-#'d base, Blue #'d 500 & Orange #'d 250 and for Co-Signers I've seen then #'d 275, 250, 225, 150 & 50). The first wave will probably sell for the most. Since there's so many for sale right now, I'm gonna wait for the impulse buyers' frenzy to subside and hopefully pick up some deals when the dust settles.

Topps has recently been having way too many variations for RC Auto cards. Why would you need so many that are so close in print run? All that does is increase the total number of Auto RC's on the market (of virtually the same card), which would cannibalize each other and make for a less valuable item. I would want to see say, for instance, a base that's #'d to 1000 (one for the general collector that still has a limited print run), then parallels #'d to 500 & 50 (for more serious collectors). Anyway, what do I know?

L.A. Angels: Beyond Vladimir Guerrero

The Angels are atop the AL West standings partly due to their star Vladimir Guerrero's consistent strong play. But in baseball, one player, no matter how well they play, can't make a winning team. One clear example of such a failure is Alex Rodriguez during his 3 year stint with the Rangers. ARod, who only missed one game is those 3 seasons, averaged a .305 BA, 52 HR & 132 RBI. The rangers record during that time: 216-270 (they were 89-73 the very next season after ARod left).

Some of the other Angels that have been strong offensive contributors are 1B Casey Kotchman (.300, 5 HR, 26 RBI), SS Orlando Cabrera (.318, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 6 SB), CF Gary Matthews Jr. (.288, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 9 SB) and LF Reggie Willits (.326, 13 SB). Matthews Jr. & Cabrera, who have been in the league 11 & 9 years respectively, haven't received interest in the hobby, and I'm guessing they probably won't going forward either.

Kotchman's cards are now starting to pick up steam, especially his 01 UD Prospect Premieres Auto XRC #'d 1000. His 02 Bowman's Best Auto RC isn't #'d , but it books for 1/4 of his XRC Auto, making it quite affordable. Only problem is finding one to buy. I only see one currently listed on auction (it's graded BGS 8.5). His 02 Topps Pristine Personal Endorsements Auto insert is widely available and can be found at lower TAC than his two base RC autos.

Willits' RC's are harder to research, since they're not listed in Beckett (because they're considered commons). When you do a search on ebay, it looks like he had an XRC in the 03 UD Prospect Premieres set, and at least one RC card in the 06 Topps 52 set (non-Auto). If he does have an Auto RC out there, it would probably be a nice investment find to get.