Player Focus: Nick Collison

Nick Collison, the former KU standout & draft lottery pick, had a rough start in the NBA, having to sit out his RC year due to shoulder surgery. In his 2nd & 3rd seasons, he was making his comeback, usually coming off the bench, averaging 5.6 ppg & 4.6 rpg and 7.5 ppg & 5.6 rpg, respectively. He started this season backing up Johan Petro at C (since Robert Swift was injured during the preseason), averaging just over 7 ppg & 6 rpg in 24 mpg. Then, Seattle management finally realized that he belonged in the starting line-up, and on 1/6 against the Warriors, he got his start. Since then, his production has taken off. From 1/6 to 1/26 (not including thier last game on 1/28 against the Clippers, because all of the starters were taken off the court earlier than usual due to them being down by 30 pts), he has averaged 17.5 ppg & 12.9 rpg in 36.9 mpg. His output has more than doubled. His confidence is finally back, and the team is behind him.

All of his RC cards have fallen since entering the NBA. There have been short spikes in demand here and there, but overall no upward movement. Now that he's starting, and will probably continue to start since Swift is out for the season, we can expect to see demand start to rise. He and Chris Wilcox have been putting up double-double stats almost every game recently. Combined with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis & Earl Watson (or Luke Ridnour - both could be pretty good PGs), the Sonics have a chance to play some decent ball, and gain some hobby interest for their talented players. They've all been undervalued due to poor team performance, but Collison's cards have especially been stuck in limbo (Watson is fairly new to the team). Try to pick up some of his key Auto RCs while you can. I especially like his Bowman & Bowman Chrome autos (sigs are directly on the cards; no stickers that year). They can be found at very low % of BV prices. Be wary though, because KU fans are still big fans of Collison, so you'll be competing with them and Sonics fans for his cards, especially when they catch fire!

Team Focus: Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz have been revived from thier string of mediocre seasons, led by Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur & Deron Williams.

It's great to see Boozer back playing so well after some injury problems. This is the Boozer that the Jazz were hoping for when they signed him to his huge contract back in '04. I'm sure they were a little worried when he only played 84 games over his 1st two seasons with them. Now he's possibly the best PF in the West, averaging 22.5 ppg & 11.9 rpg. His RCs were steals up till a couple months ago. Now collectors are again taking interest in him, and betting on a healthy future. It might be a good idea to pick up one of his Auto RCs and hold it for a while. His 02-03 Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 999 books for a reasonable $30, compared to his Finest Auto #'d 999, SP Authentic Auto #'d 1500, and SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 999 which all book for $40 each.

Mehmet Okur has been improving every season since coming into the NBA. He's a big guy who can shoot (even the 3 - .400 3PT% this season), giving him an added dimension compared to other Centers. I don't think that he'll ever be a hobby "star" (maybe "semistar"), but he is a good support player. From a collectors' standpoint, you probably wouldn't buy his cards unless you were a diehard fan, since resale values wouldn't appreciate much. For those diehard fans, his key RC from 02-03 would be Bowman Sig Auto #'d 999 ($25).

What can I say about Deron Williams that everyone else doesn't already know? He's having a break out season. One of his key Auto RCs though, has dropped in auction performance. His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 750 booked for $60 through the Dec Beckett. Actual online sales for the month of Dec averaged $47.18 (78.6% of BV). Not too bad. But then, when the BV jumped to $75 in the Jan Beckett, sales seemed to go south, averaging just $40.61 (54.1% of BV). I would blame this drop on the team's stumbling earlier in Jan, when they lost 5 out of 6 games (the worst streak they've had this season). Collectors and investors should take advantage of this lull and pick up some of his cards. There are some good deals out there (except maybe not for his Exquisite Coll Auto/Patch RC!). You just have to look. His SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 has been averaging $26.02 in Jan (52% of the $50 BV). If you can find an SPA RC for around $19-22 or an SPx RC for $30-36, I would say go for it. At only 22 years old, Williams could be the next John Stockton for Utah fans.

Postgame: The return of Melo

In Carmelo Anthony's first game back, the action was explosive at times, with the allyoop dunks & drives to the basket, but overall the Nuggets were able to cruise in this one-sided game. The Grizzlies were an ideal team to play for Melo's first game back, to allow Denver to ease into their new line-up and have a strong confidence booster. Melo seems to be making some shooting adjustments (which is expected after 36 days out of action), shooting 10-25 from the field, but before we know it he'll be back to his old form, maintaining his position as one of the league's leading scorers.

Their next game, against Seattle, will probably pose a little more of a challenge. The Sonics have a decent young line-up, with double-double guys Chris Wilcox & Nick Collison, and of course, one of the best shooters in the game, Ray Allen.

Relatively speaking, Melo, Iverson & Camby RC's are pretty good deals on auction. Melo & Iverson cards can be found at pretty low % of BV levels. Camby's key cards seem to be selling at higher % of BV levels, but that's because his BV's are undervalued.

Pregame: The Return of Melo

Today is finally the day that Carmelo Anothony returns to the Denver line-up! What to expect? Nothing short of sheer offensive dominance! Even though Melo was on suspension for 36 days, he was still allowed to practice with the team, and prepare for the best two man offense of our era. Iverson & Melo are averaging a combined 60 ppg this season. When you put them together with J.R. Smith, Marcus Camby (one of the best defensive players in the league) and Nene (who seems to be getting into better shape now), you have a top 3 Western Conf team. Since its still early in the year, the Nuggets have time to mesh, and possibly compete with the Suns & Mavs for the top spot in the west. One concern that I have is their bench. Guys like Steve Blake, Yakhouba Diawara & Linas Kleiza have shown signs of promise while Melo was out. All 3 of them can be potential 3 point threats. Hopefully they will continue to progress, so that the starters can take a little breather now & then.

This situation has great hobby potential for Iverson's cards to make a long overdue comeback, and Melo's to continue their upward trend. As long as egos can be kept in check, we should be able to witness something very spectacular.

Player Focus: Kwame Brown's Cake Ordeal

Did all of you hear what happened with Kwame Brown last week outside a bar in one of the L.A. beach cities? On the news they said some guy had just came from his own 30th birthday party, and was walking with his large birthday cake in his arms when he came across Brown, Ronny Turiaf & Lamar Odom outside a bar. He said that Turiaf took a picture with him, but Brown, for some bizarre reason we don't know, took the cake away from the man and threw it onto the man's back! And I was just thinking that Brown seems to have finally matured and was ready to take on the responsibilities that the Lakers deeply want to bestow upon him. The report said that Brown then jumped into his car and left. Supposedly the man tried to approach them after that at some other location and someone, identified as possibly Odom's bodyguard, pushed the man to the ground. Odom told the bodyguard to stop because the man didn't do anything. Both partys then parted ways.

I don't know whether to believe that this whole ordeal was unprovoked or not, but that report sure didn't do anything good for Brown's image. It seems that the judge threw out the case, so maybe the altercation wasn't just so one sided.

I hope that Brown & Odom will keep focused on what they need to do, namely rehabbing and coming back to play at 100% at the end of the month. The Lakers have really missed all of Odom's many skills, and they need Brown back to alternate with Bynum at center. Especially since Bynum seems to be a magnet to foul trouble (something that he'll probably outgrow with experience).

Player Focus: Gilbert Arenas Part 2

As I was saying in this blog two days ago, it'll take something special to keep the fire in Gilbert Arenas' cards going. Then one day later what does he do? Lights up one of the best in the West, the Utah Jazz, for 51 points, including a game winning buzzer beating 3, and only has ONE turnover in the entire game! If that doesn't do it, nothing will!

Keep an eye on his key 01-02 RC's as they will continue to rise in value. I would rank his top 5 base RC cards to be: 1) SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525 ($80), 2) Ultimate Collection #'d 750 ($50), 3) Topps High Topps Auto #'d 850 ($50), 4) UD Inspirations Dual Auto w/ Mo Pete #'d 1149 ($40), and 5) SPx #'d 1999 ($30).

My View: Best RC Set for 05-06

After seeing all of the MANY RC sets in the 05-06 year, I'd have to say my favorite is the SP Authentic Auto/Patch RCs #'d 1/1299 to 100/1299. These cards are in affordable packs, they're rare, they're unique (the 1st 100 of the base RC set) and they give you just as much as the unaffordable Exquisite Coll RC set (an auto & patch, with a low serial #). All of the Exquisite Coll RCs have been selling for unbelievable amounts (many over 100% of BV), even for the players that haven't done anything yet in the NBA. This SPA set on the other hand has kind of cruised by under the radar, selling for quite low % of BV levels. I've watched all of these RCs listed from 11/28/06 thru 1/14/07 on auction, and the average % of BV selling price was 67.9%. Some lucky collector picked up a Salim Stoudamire for $21.50 (26.9% of the $80 BV). Also, an Andrew Bogut sold on 1/7 for $51.55, 32.2% of the $160 BV. Of the 18 sales that I watched, only 3 sold for over 100% of BV; a Deron Williams (104.2% of BV on 1/3), a David Lee (107.5% of BV on 1/10) and a Jason Maxiell (114.7% of BV on 1/13). The Chris Paul from this set only books for $400, and the one that I saw sell on 1/10 went for $322.11 incl S&H. Much more affordable than the Exquisite Coll #'d 99 that books for $3200!

I feel like this set is on the verge of a hobby breakthrough, so if you want in, better get moving!

Player Focus: Gilbert Arenas

Gilbert Arenas was clearly the best offensive player in the month of December, averaging 34.1 ppg & shooting .476 FG% (His combined November & January (so far) stats are 26.1 ppg & .390 FG%). Even though Arenas has been a great scorer for the past couple of seasons and his RC cards have booked fairly high, the hobby demand hasn't been consistently there for him. On 12/17, I saw one of his Ultimate Coll RC's (BV $50) sell for $10.50 incl S&H (21% of BV). What seems to have sparked his hobby craze were his 60 point (12/17) & 54 point (12/22) performances against the high profile Lakers & Suns, respectively. Sales for his Ultimate Collection RC jumped to an average of $43.73 incl S&H (87.5% of BV) from 12/28 thru 1/13. His SP Authentic Auto RC (BV $80) was even hotter, averaging $111.71 (139.6% of BV) from 1/2 thru 1/13.

Arenas has cooled some in his past 3 games, scoring 20, 23 & 17 points against non-top tier teams, and the Wizards lost 2 out of three of them. This slump (if you can even call 3 games a slump!) has already started to affect some of his RC sales. If he doesn't have another catalytic performance soon, you can expect to see demand for his RC's to wane some, probably dropping actual sales to lower % of BV levels (especially since the February Beckett will probably have up arrows on his RC's to reflect real market action for the previous month). The bar has definitely been raised for Arenas, so scoring 20 something points just won't cut it for his critics and hobby fans.

We all know Arenas has the talent, and he has become a part of one of the most exciting 3 man offenses in the league (with Caron Butler & Antawn Jamison). I believe that his RC cards are going to remain solid investments for now & the future, especially when the Wizards become a top tier Eastern power in the next couple of seasons.

Player Focus: Hakim Warrick

In my last posting, I spotlighted Hakim Warrick of the Memphis Grizzlies as my sleeper. Since then, Warrick has still been coming off the bench and his stats have still been falling. Since the team has quite a few young forwards like Alexander Johnson (22 y.o.), Rudy Gay (19 y.o.), Lawrence Roberts (23 y.o.) plus Stromile Swift & Brian Cardinal, maybe it would be beneficial for Warrick move to another team. Two teams that I think might provide a better fit are the NO/Okla Hornets & the San Antonio Spurs.

The Hornets are a young up and coming team, with Chris Paul strong at PG, Tyson Chandler at Center and Desmond Mason at GF. They could use Warrick's athleticism and scoring ability in the forward spot. I think that he could go in as a starter and make an immediate impact. The Hornets need the extra help to compete in the Western Conf's toughest division.

If he went to the Spurs, he would have time to learn from guys like Tim Duncan & Robert Horry, two veteran champions that know how to win. The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, but only have 3 players averaging double digit points (Duncan, Parker & Ginobili). Whether Warrick would come in as a starter or bencher, he would benefit from the experience & knowledge he would gain, and be ready to take over the star spot when Duncan retires down the line (kind of like when Duncan joined David Robinson back in '97).

I've been watching sales of his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299, and my theory seems to be true. So far this year, his SPA RC has sold for an average of $13.02 incl S&H (32.5% of BV) from 1/4 to 1/12, with one even selling for $9.27 incl S&H (23.2% of BV) on 1/12. I'm gonna be picking up as many of his Auto RC's as I can, targeting a % of BV of around 20-30%. If he starts playing more or gets traded into a better situation, they'll turn out to be a great investment!

Issue 4

Real Deal - Market Report

Here are some actual RC card sales that I've seen recently for high potential players, which I thought were good buys. *Now all sales prices listed include S&H charges, unless noted.

02-03 Finest Caron Butler Auto RC #'d 999 - $9.05 on 12/27/06 (BV $40) - 22.6% of BV
01-02 Ultimate Coll Gilbert Arenas RC #' 750 - $10.50 on 12/11/06 (BV $50) - 21% of BV
98-99 SPx Finite Paul Pierce Radiance RC #'d 2500 - $5.30 (not incl S&H) on 12/7/06 (BV $30) - 17.7% of BV

Sleepers

This report's sleeper is Hakim Warrick (Mem, 05-06 RC year). Warrick got the opportunity to start when Pau Gasol was out due to injury earlier in the season, and for the most part he took advantage of that time to show what he could do. From the beginning of the season through 12/16 (he started coming off the bench after 12/16), he averaged 31.6 mpg, 15.5 ppg & 5.6 rpg. Thereafter, coming off the bench he has averaged 19.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg & 2.3 rpg. When you look at production per minute of play, that's a drop of 16.7% in points per min & 34.1% in rebounds per min. I would guess that this would be the result of fewer opportunities and a drop in morale for Warrick (going from starter to bencher).

Most of Warrick's RCs jumped in price in the Jan Beckett, due to his strong play before being benched. Because of this, we should be seeing a good drop in % of BV for sales online. Alot of the "hype" buyers should start moving on to the next hot player, which would ease up demand and in turn lower selling prices. Now is the time to pick up some of his key RCs, before Memphis management realizes that they made a mistake pulling him from the starting line up!

I just saw one of his SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 (BV $40) sell for $14.27 (incl s&h) - 35.7% of BV. I also like his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 99 (BV $80), Ultimate Coll Auto RC #'d 250 (BV $50) and SP Authentic Limited RC Patches Auto #'d 1/1299 to 100/1299 (BV $120).

Rare Finds

My rare find for this report is a 04-05 SPx Dwight Howard Throwback Auto/Jsy RC (BV $150), which sold on ebay for $182.50 on 12/2/06, 121.7% of BV. These Throwback RC parallels were not numbered, but were seeded 1:252 packs, making them quite rare. I've seen alot fewer of these for sale than the base #'d RCs. Howard is the hottest PF in the hobby this year, playing for a cinderella Orlando Magic that hasn't had a winning record since the 02-03 season.

RC Card Focus: Andrew Bynum - SPx vs SP Authentic

For the past month or so, I've been watching actual sales for two key RC cards of Andrew Bynum. These cards are their SPx Auto/Jsy RC & SP Authentic Auto RC. Both cards are mid-high value range and I feel a decent bang for the buck.

Andrew Bynum SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 - This card's BV in Dec was $40, then jumped to $50 in Jan. Dec sales on ebay (I tracked 14 sales from 12/2 to 12/23) averaged $36.21, just a 90.5% of BV (vs Dec BV of $40). The high was $44, and the low was $27.

Andrew Bynum SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 - This card's BV in Dec was $30, then jumped to $40 in Jan. Dec Sales on ebay (I tracked 14 sales from 11/24 to 12/27) averaged $34.06, 113.5% of BV (vs Dec BV of $30). The high was $56, and the low as $22.79.

Even though the SPx had the jersey swatch & $10 higher BV, buyers didn't necessarily value it much higher than the SPA. The difference in average selling price, for roughly the same time period, was only $2.15. My opinion to explain this is the autograph version used (refer back to my previous discussion on 11/27 - Player Focus: Andrew Bynum Auto Variations). The SPx uses the VERY common "AB #17", which I think will become even more common as the years go by when this becomes Bynum's normal sig. The SPA on the otherhand uses the less common "Andrew Bynum" sig. As I mentioned before, players' sigs usually get shorter as the years go by (Ex. Kobe Bryant --> Kobe 8 --> Kobe). The impact of the difference in serial # (200) is pretty much nil.

Player Focus: Paul Pierce

Paul Pierce has been and still is one of the best players in the NBA, but has kept below the hobby radar, beneath other star players. I think the reason is because the Celtics haven't performed well as a team, and because Vince Carter & Dirk Nowitzki are also from the same RC class, and they have both performed equally well & helped their teams to better results than the Celtics. When you look at the RC BVs for 98-99, Pierce's cards are around the same level as Antawn Jamison's (among a few others, but I'm choosing Jamison to compare to because they have more similar career stats to eachother). Over their 8+ year careers, Pierce has averaged 23.5 ppg & 6.6 rpg, and Jamison 19.3 ppg & 7.6 rpg. When considering this, there is one RC that stands out as a good BV deal, in comparison to Jamison's RC in the same set. It is the SPx Finite Radiance #'d 1500. Why is it that the base version #'d 2500 books for $30, and the rarer Radiance books for $25? Jamison's base books for $25 (less than Pierce's) and Radiance is at $30 (more than Pierce's). Don't know what's going on there, but it would appear that his Radiance card is a deal! All of Pierce's RCs can be had at amazing % of BV levels. This month I saw two SPx Finite RCs #'d 2500 sell on ebay. They went for $5.30 & $5.51, 17.7% & 18.4% of BV respectively.

Looking at the current Celtics roster gives hope for the future. They have so many young talented players like Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Sebastian Telfair, Rajon Rondo, Gerald Green & Kendrick Perkins who could help Pierce to a championship run. If they can develop this current team, I think that they could achieve more than Dirk has with the Mavs and VC has with Toronto or NJ. That could push Pierce's RCs into the top spot for 98-99. Just like Dwayne Wade & the Heat's Championship run last year, pushing Wade's RCs past Carmelo's into the #2 spot under Lebron.

Player Focus: Kwame Brown

Kwame Brown was the first high school player to be taken #1 in the draft, by the Wizards back in 2001. He was a raw talent with great size, and he was going to be playing along side the best player in the game, Jordan. Brown became a big disappointment, and many thought he was heading in the same direction as another past #1 pick (Michael Olowokandi '98). Now, in his 5th NBA season, and playing for the Lakers, Brown looks to be finally coming around. He's shown that he can put up good defense, and suprisingly has a soft touch laying the ball in. Not all straight out of high school stars get off to hot starts like Lebron or Dwight Howard. Take for instance Jermaine O'neal. He spent his 1st 4 seasons at Portland, playing only scant minutes and averaging just 3.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg & 0.7 bpg, before moving to Indiana and averaging 19 ppg, 9.9 rpg & 2.5 bpg over the last 6+ seasons. In some instances, it just takes a little more time & the right team situation to jump start potential. I think that Brown is now starting to show what he's capable of doing, and putting the discouragement of his past behind him. He's back from injury (re-replacing Andrew Bynum in the starting line up) and he will be key to the Lakers success this season, at both ends of the court.

Player Focus: Caron Butler

I've been a fan of Caron Butler since he came to the Lakers from Miami back in '04. I remember watching him continuously driving to the basket, through traffic and getting hammered by the big guys in the paint, and thinking this guys got guts! He's one of the most underrated SF in the game, and I was sad to see him go after just one season. Now he's doing his thing in Washington, where he averaged 17.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.7 spg and shot .870 from the line last season. This year he's off to a good start averaging 17.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.7 spg and shooting .895 from the line. He's playing with some talented players in Washington, like Arenas & Jamison, so hopefully he can be successful there. Butler's RCs can be found at good % of BV prices on auction. I recently saw two of his SPx Auto/Jsy RCs #'d 999 (BV$30) sell for $5.01 & $5.55, which are 17% & 18.5% of BV respectively. I would try to find some of his key RC cards to buy at around 15-30% of BV if possible. That way you could maximize your value if and when his cards start picking up steam.

Player Focus: Carmelo Anthony

When the 03-04 season hit, Carmelo Anthony was the 2nd hottest thing out the gates after Lebron James. Now look at his RC card values: his Bowman Signature auto/jsy is 1/3 of Dwayne Wade's (and only $20 more than Lebron's non-auto/jsy!), his Exquisite Auto/Patch RC is $2800, while Lebron's is $12000, Wade's is $7500, and Bosh's is a close $2200. I would say that Melo's RC value slide is at an end, and now is the time to pick up some deals. So far this season he's averaging 31.5 ppg and shooting .515 FG% & .833 FT%. Compare that to Lebron's averages of 27.5 ppg, .470 FG% & .712 FT%, and Wade's of 28.1 ppg, .472 FG% & .816 FT%. This guy is destined to achieve greatness. He led Syracuse to a national title his freshman year, then got drafted and led Denver to the playoffs his RC year (Denver went 17-65 the year before). I'm not taking anything away from the other two players, but I think that Melo is in a way a sleeper ready to awaken. Wade has also benefited from his great performance leading the Heat to the Championships last year, helping his RC cards build some really strong value.

You can still pick up Melo's auto RC's at good % of BV levels. I just saw a Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy sell for $64.76, roughly 65% of BV ($100). If he continues the way he's been playing, you can bet that he's gonna be getting alot more hobby love. My only concern is with Denver's performance, because they're in the stronger Western Conf, while Cleveland & Miami may have more chances to shine in the East. Anyway, however you look at it, Melo is a good long term (and possible short term) investment.

Real Deal - Market Report

Here are some actual RC card sales that I've seen recently for high potential players (not yet making the "hot" lists), which I thought were good buys.

03-04 Bowman Sig Gold Auto/Jsy Travis Outlaw #'d 69/99 - BV$37.50, actual $10.50 - 28% of BV
02-03 SPx Auto/Jsy Carlos Boozer #'d 1427/1999 - BV$30, actual $16 - 53% of BV
05-06 SP Authentic Auto/Jsy Deron Williams #'d 65/100 - BV$60, actual $53 - 88% of BV

The Utah Jazz have been on fire so far this season, lead by Boozer in the front court & Williams in the back. Considering how well they've been doing, I felt like these were good buys for two of their key Auto/Jsy RC cards. Just 2 days earlier I saw the same Deron Williams RC card sell for $82 - 137% of BV.

Sleepers

This report's sleeper is Michael Redd (Mil Bucks, 00-01 RC year). Redd is in his 7th NBA season with the Bucks, and he has improved and been rewarded with more minutes each year. Last season he averaged 25.4 ppg in 39.1 mpg. So far this season he's averaging 30.4 ppg (3rd in the league) in 41.1 mpg. Unfortunately he hasn't had a strong supporting cast. Now, the Bucks have future stars Andrew Bogut & Charlie Villanueva to help Redd hopefully make them a winning team. Although Redd has been a consistent scorer for the past few seasons, it seems like he hasn't received the hobby interest that other players have, possibly due to him playing for a not so good small market team. Redd doesn't have that many RC cards, but his better ones are: E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto (500 print run) - BV $30, SPx #'d 4500 - BV $10 (Spectrum #'d 25 - BV $100), Fleer Autographics Auto - BV $12 (Silver #'d 250 - BV $15, Gold #'d 50 - BV $36), and Ultra Platinum Medallion #'d 25 - BV $40. All of these should be able to be picked up for less than BV. Although, he did just have a 45 point, 8 rebond, 5 assist, 4 steal night against the Lakers yesterday (and scored 57 against UTA on 11/11)!

Rare Finds

My rare find for this report is a 03-04 Finest Gold Ref Luke Walton #'d 25, sold for $62.01 on 11/8. Walton is one of my "sleepers" and this is one of his best, most limited Auto RC cards (yes, the last good year for Finest RCs!). I think that this card is better looking than the SPx Spectrum RC for that year (also #'d 25), and could probably be picked up for less too. Congrats to the lucky collector that bought this rare find.

Player Focus: Andrew Bynum Auto Variations

As all of you have noticed, the way that some players sign their names vary, depending on the year it was signed, or in some cases the product that was signed. Kobe Bryant's autograph evolved from Kobe Bryant, to Kobe 8, to just Kobe. Andrew Bynum, just within his RC year has three different auto variations: AB #17, A Bynum and A Bynum #17. In the case of Kobe, there's a premium for his full name signature, because he only signed it that way for a short time during his 1st year. Of the Bynum autos, the products that have each variation are: "AB #17" - all Topps products, Reflections, SP Game Used, SPx, UD Hardcourt, UD Rookie Debut & UD Portraits. For "A Bynum" - Exquisite Collection, SP Authentic, Ultimate Collection & UD Trilogy. For "A Bynum #17" - SP Signature, UD Portraits & UD Sweet Shot. Based on this rough info, I would say that the AB #17 would probably be the most abundant (and possibly the lowest long term value), while the other two would have the most potential value, due to 1) the high end products that have the A Bynum version, and 2) only two products having the A Bynum #17 version. Also, players' sigs don't usually get longer, they tend to get shorter, or more abbreviated over the years, so I would guess that the AB #17 might be the one to persist in future year products, making the other two variations more scarce and command more of a premium as time goes on. The other x factor is that we don't know the population for the autos that aren't serial #'d, so it's very hard to get an accurate count of how many of each really exist.

If you anyone out there knows which variation is usedUD Rookie Debut, please let me know! Thanks.

Player Focus: Andrew Bynum

There's been a shortage of skilled big men in the NBA (at both ends of the court), which has allowed players like Shaq & Duncan to dominate and help lead their teams to championships. Yao looks to be the current heir to the Center throne, with some younger potentials in the midst. Of these younger players, Andrew Bynum appears to be the best bet. At only 19 years old (and now starting for the Lakers), he has the physique to compete with anyone, is being coached by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Kareem is starting to teach him his signature sky hook) and he's shown us flashes of stardom with his scoring, rebounding, shot blocking, etc. If you can find his key auto rc's for less than current BV (in the 70-80% of BV range), pick them up. Most of them that I've seen have been selling for around 120-170% of BV, but if you look hard enough, you can find good deals out there. One SP Authentic Auto RC sold for 76% of BV on 11/25 (one sold the very next day for 129% of BV, and another one is already at 187% of BV with 11 hours left on auction!). I like his SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 - BV $30 (the first 100 also have a patch), his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 - BV $40 and his SPx Spectrum Auto/Jsy RC #'d 25 - BV $120. If he continues to develop at the rate he has been, look for his RCs to get increasing attention with up arrows in the coming months.

My View: The Downfall of Topps Finest Basketball

Topps Finest was first introduced for Basketball back in 93-94. It was a simple premium product, with base RCs & ref versions. Over the years they've experimented with things like only base RCs, no ref RCs (95-96), having 2 series' but with only RCs in one of the series (94-95, 95-96), Bronze, Silver, Gold, Embossed (96-97), etc. Recently, Topps has just gone crazy with the parallels. In the 05-06 set, there are 19 RC variations! There's the base, 6 diff colored refs, 6 diff colored x-fractors, and 6 diff colored superfractors. It's very deceiving. If you pull a RC auto ref #'d 99, normally you'd be thrilled. But when there are 5 other colored ref auto RCs #'d to 229, 19, 59, 199 & 1, you're actually getting one that has 606 ref auto RCs on the market. All this does is dilute the value of each RC card. The best change that Topps made to the Finest Basketball brand was in 02-03 when they added Auto RCs. In my opinion, the best value Finest years were 02-03 (base auto RC, ref auto RC & Gold ref auto RC) & 03-04 (base auto RC, ref auto RC, Gold ref auto RC, X-fractor auto RC). If Topps wants to compete with UD, they should return to this simple but value inducing format. I personally refuse to buy any Finest RCs after the 03-04 year because you just won't be getting the bang for your buck that you should be.

This seems to be a trend for Topps. The Bowman Chrome Baseball is the same. It started in 97 with a base & ref set. Now they also have diff color parallels. Bowman Elevation Basketball is following the same path. They have 5 different RC variations, #'d to 999, 399, 299, 99 & 1. This should be reduced to 3 at the most: #'d 999, 99 & 1.

I've always liked the Finest & Bowman brands. They have nice designs and great auto RCs. It's a shame that they're cannibalizing themselves & pushing themselves out of competitiveness.

Real Deal - Market Report
Here are some actual RC card sales that I've seen recently for high potential players (not yet making the "hot" lists), which I thought were good buys.

• 01-02 Topps Chrome Zach Randolph Auto - BV$20, actual sale $9.38 (47% of BV)
• 01-02 SP Authentic G Arenas Auto #'d 1525 - BV$80, actual sale $48.99 (61% of BV)
• 03-04 Finest M Pietrus Auto #'d 999 - BV$12, actual sale $3 (25% of BV) *REAL DEAL!

I know that Areans is already considered a "Star" player, but just wanted to list it b/c it sold for a realtively good % of BV price.

Sleepers
This report's sleeper is Jarrett Jack (Por Blazers, 05-06 RC year). I feel that Jack could be an essential part of Portland's effort to pull themselves out of mediocrity. In the next few years, the Blazers could be topping the Northwest Div, with Jack running the floor, dishing to Randolph, and young talents like Aldridge, Webster & Outlaw. Most of Jack's RCs are booked as commons, and can be picked up for nice % of BV prices. Some RCs that I like are his 05-06 SP Game Used Rookie Excl Auto #'d 100 - BV $40, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 - BV $15 and Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 250 - BV $20. Jack hasn't received much attention, due to two other PGs from that RC year who have been really hot, Chris Paul (NO/Okla) & Deron Williams (UTAH), but watch out for this quiet sleeper!

Rare Finds
My rare finds for this report are the two most limited Autos for Lamar Odom's RC year: 90-00 Skybox Autographics Century Marks Auto #'d 50 (BV $50) & 99-00 E-X E-Xplosive Lamar Odom Auto #'d 99 (BV $50). The Autographics CM auto recently sold for $44 (88% of BV) and the E-Xplosive sold for $26 (52% of BV). Both are great finds, and congrats to those buyers who won them in auction. I expected the Autographics card to go for more $, due to the higher level of popularity for the brand, but not for as much as it did.

It seems that more & more collectors are putting a huge premium on premium products. The % of BV for the high end stuff (90%+) is so much higher than for the medium end stuff (20%-70%). Makes you think... card companies are probably making much better profit margins off of the high end product, so they don't mind that it may be cannibalizing the popularity of their other products.