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Thursday, January 04, 2007

Issue 4

Real Deal - Market Report

Here are some actual RC card sales that I've seen recently for high potential players, which I thought were good buys. *Now all sales prices listed include S&H charges, unless noted.

02-03 Finest Caron Butler Auto RC #'d 999 - $9.05 on 12/27/06 (BV $40) - 22.6% of BV
01-02 Ultimate Coll Gilbert Arenas RC #' 750 - $10.50 on 12/11/06 (BV $50) - 21% of BV
98-99 SPx Finite Paul Pierce Radiance RC #'d 2500 - $5.30 (not incl S&H) on 12/7/06 (BV $30) - 17.7% of BV


This report's sleeper is Hakim Warrick (Mem, 05-06 RC year). Warrick got the opportunity to start when Pau Gasol was out due to injury earlier in the season, and for the most part he took advantage of that time to show what he could do. From the beginning of the season through 12/16 (he started coming off the bench after 12/16), he averaged 31.6 mpg, 15.5 ppg & 5.6 rpg. Thereafter, coming off the bench he has averaged 19.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg & 2.3 rpg. When you look at production per minute of play, that's a drop of 16.7% in points per min & 34.1% in rebounds per min. I would guess that this would be the result of fewer opportunities and a drop in morale for Warrick (going from starter to bencher).

Most of Warrick's RCs jumped in price in the Jan Beckett, due to his strong play before being benched. Because of this, we should be seeing a good drop in % of BV for sales online. Alot of the "hype" buyers should start moving on to the next hot player, which would ease up demand and in turn lower selling prices. Now is the time to pick up some of his key RCs, before Memphis management realizes that they made a mistake pulling him from the starting line up!

I just saw one of his SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 (BV $40) sell for $14.27 (incl s&h) - 35.7% of BV. I also like his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 99 (BV $80), Ultimate Coll Auto RC #'d 250 (BV $50) and SP Authentic Limited RC Patches Auto #'d 1/1299 to 100/1299 (BV $120).

Rare Finds

My rare find for this report is a 04-05 SPx Dwight Howard Throwback Auto/Jsy RC (BV $150), which sold on ebay for $182.50 on 12/2/06, 121.7% of BV. These Throwback RC parallels were not numbered, but were seeded 1:252 packs, making them quite rare. I've seen alot fewer of these for sale than the base #'d RCs. Howard is the hottest PF in the hobby this year, playing for a cinderella Orlando Magic that hasn't had a winning record since the 02-03 season.

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