Young Pitchers Update
Now that the season is winding down, we can see which of the young pitchers that shined earlier on are still the in game. Injuries & inconsistent/bad performance has weeded some of them out. The ones that are still on top are Justin Verlander (great performace on a strong team), Chien-Ming Wang (ditto), Josh Johnson (bright spot on poor performing team), Carlos Zambrano (ditto), C.C. Sabathia (ditto), Scott Kazmir (ditto) and Jered Weaver (still impressive, but not invincible anymore). All of these guys' auto RC's (ungraded) can be had for around $40 to $80, depending on the timing & version (I don't think Josh Johnson has any auto RCs). I still think that given each of their ages, MLB debut dates, etc...I would rank them (from a collecting point of view) as 1. Carlos Zambrano, 2. Scott Kazmir, 3. C.C. Sabathia, 4. Justin Verlander, 5. Josh Johnson, 6. Jered Weaver, 7. Chien-Ming Wang. Chad Billingsley has also been looking good for the Dodgers. Ricky Nolasco is still my pick for best bargain.
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Red Sox Woes
It seemed like the BoSox were real contenders for the AL Wild Card (and earlier AL East lead), but things are looking pretty gloomy with all of their recent injuries. Their 3 top bats (Ramirez, Ortiz & Pena), their top ace (Schilling) & their red hot closer (Papelbon) are all out, and team falling quickly. Since they're 8 GB from the Yanks, their best bet for the postseason is the wildcard (although they're 6 GB there). It's tough to bet on the Twins & ChiSox stumbling though, with both teams looking strong. I guess this will be the year where 2 perrenial powers will miss the postseason (the other being the Braves - although the Braves are only 3.5 GB, but they need 6 teams to stumble in the next month).
It seemed like the BoSox were real contenders for the AL Wild Card (and earlier AL East lead), but things are looking pretty gloomy with all of their recent injuries. Their 3 top bats (Ramirez, Ortiz & Pena), their top ace (Schilling) & their red hot closer (Papelbon) are all out, and team falling quickly. Since they're 8 GB from the Yanks, their best bet for the postseason is the wildcard (although they're 6 GB there). It's tough to bet on the Twins & ChiSox stumbling though, with both teams looking strong. I guess this will be the year where 2 perrenial powers will miss the postseason (the other being the Braves - although the Braves are only 3.5 GB, but they need 6 teams to stumble in the next month).
Sunday, July 23, 2006
RC Deals
Some of the RC cards that I think are deals right now are 92 Bowman Manny Ramirez #532 and 92 Bowman Carlos Delgado. Both of these cards are the players' top RC's, and can be found for under $20. Ramirez is one of the top hitters of our time. He has 461 HR's, 2024 Hits & .314 BA. I think he'll retire with 600+ HR's & 3000+ Hits. Delgado has 393 HR's so far in his career. By the time he retires, I predict that he'll have around 540 HR's.
Some of the RC cards that I think are deals right now are 92 Bowman Manny Ramirez #532 and 92 Bowman Carlos Delgado. Both of these cards are the players' top RC's, and can be found for under $20. Ramirez is one of the top hitters of our time. He has 461 HR's, 2024 Hits & .314 BA. I think he'll retire with 600+ HR's & 3000+ Hits. Delgado has 393 HR's so far in his career. By the time he retires, I predict that he'll have around 540 HR's.
Recap: Liriano vs Kazmir
Ok, so I was wrong about the score, but Liriano & the Twins did beat Kazmir & the D-Rays. I predicted a score of Min 4-2. Actual runs scored against each pitcher came to Min 4-1. Pretty close! Liriano is appearing to be the most dominant of the young pitchers (or any pitchers) this season. Today he fanned 10 in 5 IP! More kicking myself for not picking up ANY of his RC's before!
Ok, so I was wrong about the score, but Liriano & the Twins did beat Kazmir & the D-Rays. I predicted a score of Min 4-2. Actual runs scored against each pitcher came to Min 4-1. Pretty close! Liriano is appearing to be the most dominant of the young pitchers (or any pitchers) this season. Today he fanned 10 in 5 IP! More kicking myself for not picking up ANY of his RC's before!
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Monday, July 17, 2006
Young Pitchers on the Move - Update
In my last post, I mentioned some of the young pitchers that I thought had strong potential. A few of them have really pulled away from the pack and are doing tremendously well. Jered Weaver (6-0, 1.12 ERA) & Ervin Santana (11-3, 3.88 ERA) have been bright spots for the struggling Angels. The team is only 1 game above .500, but luckily only 1.5 GB in the seemingly weak AL West. The LAA are ranked 11th (out of 14) in the AL for runs scored, so their pitchers don't get the best run support, making these pitchers' performances even more amazing.
Of course 3 other pitchers are having break out seasons: Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.83 ERA), Francisco Liriano (10-2, 2.12 ERA) & Scott Kazmir (10-6, 3.27 ERA). Boy do I wish I picked up their rare auto rc's back when they were affordable!! I'm predicting the next pitchers to break out will be Ian Snell of the Pirates (8-6, 4.85 ERA) and Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins (6-6, 5.00 ERA). Both the Pirates & Marlins have young pitching staffs that could develop into MLB leading rotations in the future, with these two pitchers at the forefront.
In my last post, I mentioned some of the young pitchers that I thought had strong potential. A few of them have really pulled away from the pack and are doing tremendously well. Jered Weaver (6-0, 1.12 ERA) & Ervin Santana (11-3, 3.88 ERA) have been bright spots for the struggling Angels. The team is only 1 game above .500, but luckily only 1.5 GB in the seemingly weak AL West. The LAA are ranked 11th (out of 14) in the AL for runs scored, so their pitchers don't get the best run support, making these pitchers' performances even more amazing.
Of course 3 other pitchers are having break out seasons: Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.83 ERA), Francisco Liriano (10-2, 2.12 ERA) & Scott Kazmir (10-6, 3.27 ERA). Boy do I wish I picked up their rare auto rc's back when they were affordable!! I'm predicting the next pitchers to break out will be Ian Snell of the Pirates (8-6, 4.85 ERA) and Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins (6-6, 5.00 ERA). Both the Pirates & Marlins have young pitching staffs that could develop into MLB leading rotations in the future, with these two pitchers at the forefront.
Thursday, June 08, 2006
Young Pitchers on the Move
There are so many bright pitching prospects right now, breaking into the majors. Those whose cards are already on the move are guys like Justin Verlander (Det), Jered Weaver (LAA), Cole Hamels (Phi), Francisco Liriano (Min) & Scott Kazmir (Tam). They're all in their early 20's and pitching very well for their respective teams. Only problem (for me at least) is that their RC cards are already becoming quite an investment ($75 to $100+ for their top Ref or Auto RCs).
Some of the pitchers in this age group that I think could become good investments are Ian Snell (Pit), Paul Maholm (Pit), Zach Duke (Pit), Ricky Nolasco (Fla), Mike O'Conner (Was), Elizardo Ramirez (Cin) & Ervin Santana (LAA). Like the list of players in the 1st paragraph, these guys are young and starting for their respective teams. They've all had highs & lows in their short careers. All of their key RC's (except maybe Duke) can be had for a fraction of those players listed previously. It'll be interesting to see which of them will be able to get it together and join the ranks of other star pitchers. We also can't forget about currently slumping Dontrelle Willis. Gotta remember he's only 24 y.o. and he's already got 497 K's in 679 IP. Only 1 year older than Verlander (54 K's in 89 IP) but alot further along in his career already.
There are so many bright pitching prospects right now, breaking into the majors. Those whose cards are already on the move are guys like Justin Verlander (Det), Jered Weaver (LAA), Cole Hamels (Phi), Francisco Liriano (Min) & Scott Kazmir (Tam). They're all in their early 20's and pitching very well for their respective teams. Only problem (for me at least) is that their RC cards are already becoming quite an investment ($75 to $100+ for their top Ref or Auto RCs).
Some of the pitchers in this age group that I think could become good investments are Ian Snell (Pit), Paul Maholm (Pit), Zach Duke (Pit), Ricky Nolasco (Fla), Mike O'Conner (Was), Elizardo Ramirez (Cin) & Ervin Santana (LAA). Like the list of players in the 1st paragraph, these guys are young and starting for their respective teams. They've all had highs & lows in their short careers. All of their key RC's (except maybe Duke) can be had for a fraction of those players listed previously. It'll be interesting to see which of them will be able to get it together and join the ranks of other star pitchers. We also can't forget about currently slumping Dontrelle Willis. Gotta remember he's only 24 y.o. and he's already got 497 K's in 679 IP. Only 1 year older than Verlander (54 K's in 89 IP) but alot further along in his career already.
Sunday, June 04, 2006
400-400 Man
The one active player that could very likely become a 400 HR - 400 SB career player is 30 y.o. Alfonso Soriano. The only other player EVER to do this is Barry Bonds (700+HR-500+SB). Although he may never join the 500 HR or 3000 Hit clubs, the 400-400 club is even more exclusive, with only one member so far! Guys like Vlad Guerrero & Andruw Jones who could've possibly done it have really seen a tapering off in their SB's in recent years. Soriano has 181 HR-182 SB so far. His Finest Gold Ref RC #'d to 100 books for $80. Sounds like a relative deal compared to his Bowman Chrome Intl Ref RC, also #'d to 100, booking for $150, his regular BC Ref RC (not numbered) booking for $100, and his UD Ultimate Victory Parallel RC #'d to 100 booking for $150.
The one active player that could very likely become a 400 HR - 400 SB career player is 30 y.o. Alfonso Soriano. The only other player EVER to do this is Barry Bonds (700+HR-500+SB). Although he may never join the 500 HR or 3000 Hit clubs, the 400-400 club is even more exclusive, with only one member so far! Guys like Vlad Guerrero & Andruw Jones who could've possibly done it have really seen a tapering off in their SB's in recent years. Soriano has 181 HR-182 SB so far. His Finest Gold Ref RC #'d to 100 books for $80. Sounds like a relative deal compared to his Bowman Chrome Intl Ref RC, also #'d to 100, booking for $150, his regular BC Ref RC (not numbered) booking for $100, and his UD Ultimate Victory Parallel RC #'d to 100 booking for $150.
Friday, June 02, 2006
Young Veteran Pitchers with Long Term Potential
A few of the pitchers that I think have long term investment potential are C.C. Sabathia (Cle - Age 25), Carlos Zambrano (Chi - Age 25), Jeremy Bonderman (Det - Age 23). These young pitchers started their MLB careers fairly early and are in the starting rotations for their respective teams. Sabathia, who's showing alot of dominance this season, is only 25 and already has 802 K's in 1020 IP (Maddux had 738 K's after his first 1174 IP). Zambrano is even better with 740 K's in his first 839 IP, and Bonderman has 479 K's in 605 IP.
The biggest problem with pitchers is questionable longevity due to injuries. Look at guys like Mark Prior & Kerry Wood. These guys could be the top pitchers in the majors, if they were consistently healthy. Glad to see Wood back in the rotation. I'm still rooting for Prior to join him soon!
A few of the pitchers that I think have long term investment potential are C.C. Sabathia (Cle - Age 25), Carlos Zambrano (Chi - Age 25), Jeremy Bonderman (Det - Age 23). These young pitchers started their MLB careers fairly early and are in the starting rotations for their respective teams. Sabathia, who's showing alot of dominance this season, is only 25 and already has 802 K's in 1020 IP (Maddux had 738 K's after his first 1174 IP). Zambrano is even better with 740 K's in his first 839 IP, and Bonderman has 479 K's in 605 IP.
The biggest problem with pitchers is questionable longevity due to injuries. Look at guys like Mark Prior & Kerry Wood. These guys could be the top pitchers in the majors, if they were consistently healthy. Glad to see Wood back in the rotation. I'm still rooting for Prior to join him soon!
Monday, May 29, 2006
Huge Upside Potential...
One young player that I think has a huge upside potential is the Dodgers' 3rd Baseman Willy Aybar. He's only 23, he tore up the minors and is showing that he can perform in the majors, and he only has TWO MLB RC cards (he also has an 01 UD minor league Auto that's hot too) , both from 2001 Bowman's Best: One #'d to 2999 RC & One Auto RC. To me, this combo of good play, young age & limited # of RC's is a winner. And to think that I almost sold my auto RC a couple of years ago, and would've only got about $5-10 for it!
One young player that I think has a huge upside potential is the Dodgers' 3rd Baseman Willy Aybar. He's only 23, he tore up the minors and is showing that he can perform in the majors, and he only has TWO MLB RC cards (he also has an 01 UD minor league Auto that's hot too) , both from 2001 Bowman's Best: One #'d to 2999 RC & One Auto RC. To me, this combo of good play, young age & limited # of RC's is a winner. And to think that I almost sold my auto RC a couple of years ago, and would've only got about $5-10 for it!
Sunday, May 28, 2006
Comparison: Ortiz vs Ramirez
I don't understand why David Ortiz's 97 Fleer & Ultra RC's are booking for $30, while Manny Ramirez's 92 Bowman RC is only at $25? Manny is 33 y.o. and has 446 HR, 1972 Hits & a .314 BA, while Ortiz is 30 y.o. with 191 HR, 926 Hits & a .282 BA. It's all because of one good year (last year) when Ortiz hit 47 HR, 148 RBI & .300 BA (and his postseason performance) (even though Manny hit 45 HR, 144 RBI & .292 BA that same year, in the same lineup). If you look at their ages & career accomplishments thus far, Manny's top RC is a bargain (and a keeper). Yes, I know that Manny has had some bad press about wanting to be traded, etc..., but he is a future 500 HR club member and pretty probably a future HOF'er.
I don't understand why David Ortiz's 97 Fleer & Ultra RC's are booking for $30, while Manny Ramirez's 92 Bowman RC is only at $25? Manny is 33 y.o. and has 446 HR, 1972 Hits & a .314 BA, while Ortiz is 30 y.o. with 191 HR, 926 Hits & a .282 BA. It's all because of one good year (last year) when Ortiz hit 47 HR, 148 RBI & .300 BA (and his postseason performance) (even though Manny hit 45 HR, 144 RBI & .292 BA that same year, in the same lineup). If you look at their ages & career accomplishments thus far, Manny's top RC is a bargain (and a keeper). Yes, I know that Manny has had some bad press about wanting to be traded, etc..., but he is a future 500 HR club member and pretty probably a future HOF'er.
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
The Great Pitchers of our Time
It's just amazing when you think about the accomplishments of the 3 great pitchers of our time. Of course we're talking about Clemens (341 wins, 4502 K's, 3.12 ERA), Maddux (323 wins, 3089 K's, 3.02 ERA) & Johnson (268 wins, 4413 K's, 3.15 ERA). The Rocket's top cards are already high priced (84 Fleer Update - $300, 85 Topps Tiffany - $175; other RC's $30-40). But you can still pick Maddux & Johnson's top RC's for relative deals. Maddux's 87 Topps Tiffany is at $25 and 87 Fleer Update Glossy $8 (other RC's from $5 to 10). Johnson's top RC's are 89 Fleer Glossy $25, Topps & Topps Traded Tiffany $40 each (other RC's from $3-15). Understanding that there are some differences in rarity between these 3 guys' top cards, I would say that it still wouldn't hurt to snag a couple Maddux & Johnson top RC's while they're at this price level.
A couple other verteran pitchers that could be creeping into the top tier are Pedro Martinez (202 wins, 2931 K's, 2.72 ERA) and Mike Mussina (230 wins, 2459 K's, 3.62 ERA). Pedro's only real RC is 91 Upper Deck Final Ed. at $8. Mussina's top RCs are 91 Ultra Update $5 & 91 Leaf Gold Rookies $4. I don't know if these card's values will ever jump (because of the year), but I'm thinking about picking up a couple "raw" gem mints if I can find them for good prices.
It's just amazing when you think about the accomplishments of the 3 great pitchers of our time. Of course we're talking about Clemens (341 wins, 4502 K's, 3.12 ERA), Maddux (323 wins, 3089 K's, 3.02 ERA) & Johnson (268 wins, 4413 K's, 3.15 ERA). The Rocket's top cards are already high priced (84 Fleer Update - $300, 85 Topps Tiffany - $175; other RC's $30-40). But you can still pick Maddux & Johnson's top RC's for relative deals. Maddux's 87 Topps Tiffany is at $25 and 87 Fleer Update Glossy $8 (other RC's from $5 to 10). Johnson's top RC's are 89 Fleer Glossy $25, Topps & Topps Traded Tiffany $40 each (other RC's from $3-15). Understanding that there are some differences in rarity between these 3 guys' top cards, I would say that it still wouldn't hurt to snag a couple Maddux & Johnson top RC's while they're at this price level.
A couple other verteran pitchers that could be creeping into the top tier are Pedro Martinez (202 wins, 2931 K's, 2.72 ERA) and Mike Mussina (230 wins, 2459 K's, 3.62 ERA). Pedro's only real RC is 91 Upper Deck Final Ed. at $8. Mussina's top RCs are 91 Ultra Update $5 & 91 Leaf Gold Rookies $4. I don't know if these card's values will ever jump (because of the year), but I'm thinking about picking up a couple "raw" gem mints if I can find them for good prices.
There are some players' cards that I've been holding onto, waiting for them to achieve their perceived potential, and turn their key cards into hidden gems to sell. I'm not sure if their time has passed or not, but their cards are still sitting in my collection. They are players like Bronson Arroyo, Geoff Jenkins, Carlos Lee, Jose Guillen and others. Looks like Arroyo is having a very decent start this season with his new team, the Reds. He's 6-2 with a 2.29 ERA. His only RC card (95 Topps Traded) books for $8, but can be had on eBay for less. Hopefully now that Jenkins has better bats around him (in Fielder, Weeks, Lee, Hall & Koskie) and the Brewers are actually winning some games, his hobby status will go up. Carlos Lee has been playing solidly, with 15 HR & 39 RBI, and ONLY 18 SO! The other big hitters on this team have more than double that many! I have a ton of Jose Guillen cards so I've been always hoping he'd have a breakout season (and in the hobby). Still waiting… Anyway, we'll see what happens with all these guys the rest of this season.
My general philosophy for baseball card collecting is that there are 2 types of players: Long Term & Short Term. Long term players would be those who consistently put up solid stats from a young age, making it very possible that they will have HOFer career stats (i.e. 500+ HR, 3000+ Hits, 300+ Wins, etc…). Short term players would be those who either put up good to great stats for a few years, or don't start having strong numbers till mid career (or start their MLB career later), making it difficult for them to have HOFer career stats. Personally, I collect long term players, and buy & sell short term players. Of course, other factors to consider are personal contributions to their teams, reputation, team performance, etc. One of my all time favorite players to collect is Andruw Jones. I've been buying his cards since before he became the youngest player to hit 2 HR's in a World Series game back in '96 (breaking Mantle's record). If he stays healthy and plays to a normal retirement age, I think he can hit 500+ HRs & 3000+ hits. In my opinion, it wouldn't hurt to have a Jones 95 Bowman/Bowman's Best RC or two in your collection!
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