The Real Deal Part 1
Here are some real sales on ebay for some of the players that I've listed in my "Sleepers" listings, along with some players who's cards are really hot. In my opinion, you should be able to pick up a "sleeper" RC card at around 70% of BV or less. Some of the players on my list have already jumped from "sleeper" to hot while I've been writing my blog, as you'll see below (of course it also depends on the set the RC card is from also).
05-06 Exquisite Ronny Turiaf Auto/Jsy RC #'d 225 - BV $80, Sales 11/8 $115.48 (144% of BV)
05-06 SP Game Used Ronny Turiaf Auto #'d 100 - BV $30, Sales 11/8 $27.21 (91% of BV)
05-06 UD Rookie Debut R. Turiaf Hotagraphs Auto - BV $25, Sales 11/8 $16.16 (65% of BV)
03-04 SP Authentic Luke Walton Auto RC #'d 1250 - BV $25, Sales 11/9 $14.38 (58% of BV)
03-04 Exquisite Luke Walton Auto/Jsy RC #'d 225 - BV $120, Sales 11/9 $165 (138% of BV)
04-05 SPx Josh Childress Throwback Auto/Jsy - BV $50, Sales 11/10 $14.55 (29% of BV)
99-00 Skybox Lamar Odom Autographics Century Marks Auto #'d 50 - BV $50, Sales 11/11 $44 (88% of BV)
05-06 Ulitmate Coll Charlie Villanueva Auto RC #'d 250 - BV $60, Sales 11/9 $42.69 (71% of BV)
05-06 SPx Andrew Bynum Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 - BV $40, Sales 11/8 $56.55 (141% BV), $104.59 (261% BV), 11/10 $58 (145% BV)
It seems like for both sleeper & hot players alike the Exquisite Collection Auto/Jsy RCs are commanding over BV in actual sales. Overall, all other RC cards for sleepers seem to be selling for under BV at this time. My personal favorites for RC cards are SPx Auto/Jsy (incl Spectrum versions), because you seem to get the most bang for your buck; a serial #'d RC with both an auto & jsy, plus the hype value. I try to stay away from Fleer & Topps RCs, except for the Bowman brand & Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Autos. Most of their other brands/products are either unattractive or weak in value. If you compare Upper Deck's brand RCs with similar serial #'s & qualities (auto, game used, etc.) to Topps & Fleer, most of the time UD's RCs hold a higher value; important especially if one day you need to sell off your collection to survive!