What About the Pistons?


I received a comment in response to saying that the Celtics are the best team in the East, saying that I forgot about the Pistons. First of all, thank you for reading, and for giving your feedback. I didn't forgot about Detroit, but I do think that their time in the spotlight is coming to a close. They've been a dominant force in the East for several years now, but I don't see them beating a team like Boston in a playoff series (they did lose to the Cavs in last season's Conference Finals 4-2). Unlike the Spurs (who have successfully endured over the years, and continue to do so), who have received some youth-infusion with Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili, the Pistons pretty much have the same aging line-up (not to say that Billups, Hamilton, Prince & Wallace aren't all excellent players, especially when playing together).


I do think that Detroit will be in the playoffs this year, and with the few number of decent teams in the East, they should move past the first round (unless they falter into the #7 or #8 spot). But I don't see them going to the Championships. I could very well be wrong (wouldn't be the first time!), but I'm predicting the Celtics to win the East.

Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa

Leandro Barbosa became of hot hobby commodity last season, as he went on to average 18.1 ppg in 32.7 mpg, coming off the bench for the Suns. So far this season, he hasn't lost a beat. Through his first 12 games, he's averaging 19.1 ppg in 33.7 mpg, again most of the time coming off the bench. Collectors have definitely taken notice . I saw one of his 03-04 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #'d 225 sell for $275 TAC last week, up from $200 just 2 weeks earlier. I also saw an 03-04 Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Auto sell for $111 last week, up from $94 just 1 week before.

My favorite Barbosa rookie is still his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999. It's one of his few base rookies that show his extended signature (opposed to just "LB" or "LB#10"), and you can find them for pretty affordable prices ($15-20 TAC). His SPx RC peaked out last season in the $30's range, with a couple selling for $40+. I think that this card has the potential to reach $50+ this season, if he keeps up the hard work.

The Mighty Celtics Trio

By adding two veteran stars, Kevin Garnett & Ray Allen, to a healthy Paul Pierce, the Celtics have seemingly transformed themselves into the team to beat in the East. While enroute to an 8-0 start this season, we witnessed KG's 95-96 Finest RC (his best base rookie) average $64.60 TAC through 11/17, with a high of $87.55 (on 11/17). Then came the team's first loss on 11/18. His Finest RC has dropped to an averge of around $51 since then. We need to keep in mind though, that for the past how many seasons, this card could be easily found for less than $20 TAC.

Ray Allen's best base rookie, his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC, has not experienced the same growth in value that KG's has. It's been a steady seller this season for around $10-15 TAC (before & after the Celtics' 11/18 loss). Since Allen has rookie-year autos (which KG doesn't), collectors seem to be going after those cards instead. Allen's two rookie-year autos are his 96-97 Skybox Autographics and Skybox Emerald Auto; both with BV of $60. Right before the season started, I saw one of his Emerald auto's sell for $24.04 TAC. I then saw one of his Autographics auto's sell for $116.49 on 11/13. That's quite an amazing jump (384%) for just a two-week period of time.Paul Pierce hasn't seen any significant changes in his rookie values (maybe because he wasn't a new addition to the team?). His 98-99 SP Authentic RC #'d 3500 has consistently sold in the mid $20's since the preseason. One card that should really garner some big bucks is his 98-99 Topps Auto (his only rookie-year auto), if you can find one. I've been keeping my eye out for one for the past couple of years, and haven't found any.

Barring any injuries, I believe that the Celtics will be able to overcome the reinvigorated red-hot Magic to finish the season #1 in the East. They may even have a chance to beat the Spurs or Suns, or whoever ends up winning the West. My hobby prediction is that KG will continue to benefit the most from this newly created super-team, with Allen & Pierce finally getting at least a little of the hobby attention that they've always deserved.

Player Focus: Grant Hill

Grant Hill had a solid pre-season with the Suns, and has been averaging 14.9 ppg & 4.8 rpg in 34.9 mpg through his first 12 games of the regular season. Not too bad considering all that he's been through in the last several years. I'm just glad to see him back, healthy & playing well. Looking at the market, it would seem that collectors either still feel that Hill isn't playing up to expectation, or that his time has past and he is no longer hobby-viable. His 94-95 Finest RC, once a hobby must-have card, is only averaging around $7.50 TAC. Normally I would say this card is a steal at that price, but there is quite a bit of risk if you're planning on buying it as an investment. If you're just a Hill fan, go ahead and buy away!

2007 Cy Young Winners

Earlier this month C.C. Sabathia stunned many with his AL Cy Young win over World Series Champ Josh Beckett. Today, Jake Peavy became the first unanimous NL winner since Randy Johnson did it in '02 (12th ever in NL history).

Sabathia's sole rookie-year Auto, his 99 Topps Traded Auto, was a pretty consistent seller throughout the season, ranging from $42-54 TAC. Before the season, you could find them for around $30-40. I've only seen one for sale so far this month, currently listed for $39.99 (+$2.50 S&H), ending on 11/21. Beckett's 99 Ultimate Victory RC experienced significant growth at the end of the season, jumping from around $20 to the $30's range in October, before settling into the $20-25 range this month. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 got a lot of hobby attention, jumping from $50 in September to the low $70's in October. Now they're selling for around $60 TAC.

Peavy's 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC stayed in the $40-50 range for most of the season (no surprise since he was probably the most consistent pitcher in the majors this year), before dipping to around $38 in October, after he blew the tie-breaking Wild Card game against the Rockies. His 01 Topps Fusion Auto (his only rookie-year Auto) fell from around $160 in September, down to $107 in October.

For all three of these pitchers, their key rookies have become pretty scarce since the season ended. I'm guessing that prices will soften in the next few months (unless demand spikes with the holidays - well, maybe not with gas prices hitting record highs!), and there will be deals to be had for those who are patient. All three of these pitchers were listed on my "Top Pitcher Investments" posts back in July, on my blog & Sportslizard, so of course I think that all 3 of them will be baffling batters for years to come.

Rookie Photo Shoot Autograph Cards

Up until this year, Topps had the lock on the "very unique" autographed cards from the Rookie Photo Shoot. Now Upper Deck has decided to get in into the game with their Rookie Debut Autographs, also signed at the Rookie Photo Shoot. They have print runs ranging from 77 to 130, and were inserted in packs of 07-08 Upper Deck, released last month.

Topps' inaugural set was introduced to the hobby in the 03-04 year, which turned out to be a prime choice of seasons with its stock of up-and-coming stars. The only downside was that it lacked the biggest rookie of that year, Lebron James (an Upper Deck auto exclusive). This set continued in 04-05 (again missing the top star of the class - Dwight Howard, another UD excl). In 05-06, they added some spark to the set with dual & triple Auto's (but it again missed the top star - Chris Paul, for the same reason). Last year, in 06-07, I would say that Topps had their biggest miss in the set's four-year history. It was missing Brandon Roy, Tyrus Thomas & LaMarcus Aldridge (I think all UD excl again).

I guess UD decided that it wasn't enough to just sign up the top stars from each class in exclusive Auto deals. They wanted to compete head-to-head and go after a piece of what little market share Topps still has in Basketball. I'm sure the Marketing team at UD did their homework and found that the Topps Rookie Photo Shoot set was still ranking pretty high in hobby stature, so naturally this would be their next course of action).

I'm not a collector of the Rookie Photo Shoot Autos, but I'm sure that those who are will jump all over this new offering from UD. There's a nice photo of the set in the November Beckett (pages 6-7). The big name missing is Greg Oden, who Topps signed an exclusive deal with, but since he's out for the season, I don't think it'll be that much of a turn-off for collectors (good try, but yet another miss for Topps!).

Topps had the right idea to insert these gems in their cheapest product line (which is probably heavily reliant on sales volume due to it's low pack price) in order to boost the brands' numbers. Kind of like how UD did with it's industry-pioneering game jerseys back in 97-98.

New & Improved Dodgers?

I heard on the news yesterday that there was a possibility that Andruw Jones and/or Johan Santana had a chance of going to the Dodgers. I'm a huge Jones fan, and I'd be thrilled to see him flourish under the leadership of Joe Torre & Don Mattingly. Maybe he'd be able to get back to hitting 40+ HR/season, like he did not too long ago. And anyone who's read my past postings about pitchers knows that I think Santana is one of the best 30 & under aces in the game. How many other 28-year-olds have 1381 K's in their career thus far? Not many (if any).

Both of these stars have spent their entire careers with the same team, and both have experienced frustrations recently, stemming from disappointing team results. A change in scenery might do them good. Los Angeles needs a spark or two (or three...), and these players could provide what they're lacking.

Jim, you asked not too long ago about Jones' 95 Bowman's Best RC card. I think that the Dodgers would provide a good platform for Jones' hobby status to relaunch from. LA is definitely going to get more attention next season, so it'll be a perfect chance for him to rejuvenate his game. His BB RC has averaged in the $19-22 range for the past several months. I think that it's potential value is probably in the $30-40 range, short term (over the next year).

Santana's top rookies from 00, Finest & Bowman's Best, have held pretty steady in recent, selling in the $65-70 & $55-60 TAC range respectively. Under the right circumstances, I think that these cards could potentially approach the $100 mark.

Jenkins Not Returning to Brewers; M's Stupid to Let Guillen Go?

I was sad to hear that the Brewers aren't bringing Geoff Jenkins back next season. After being drafted by Milwaukee in '95, and getting called up to the bigs in '98, he went on to hit 212 HR over his career there (2nd most in team history behind Robin Yount, who had 251). For a lot of years, it seemed like Jenkins was the only big hitter the Brewers had. Now that they have a very talented young line-up & are contenders for the NL Central division, they're dumping him. Early in the '07 season, I was thinking how great it must be for Jenkins to finally be surrounded by good hitters, after enduring a 636-820 team record in his 9 years leading up to this season (similar to the feeling I had for Todd Helton this year). I've always been somewhat of a fan of Jenkins, and followed his career hoping that he would gain some hobby recognition. Maybe he'll get his chance on a team that will appreciate his skills & experience.

This weekend I was reading that the Mariners decided to decline their '08 contract option for Jose Guillen. My first thought was WHY? Guillen hit .290 (4th on team) with 23 HR (2nd on team) & 99 RBI (2nd on team), helping the M's to an 88-74 record (best since '03). I remember him hitting well in clutch situations, sometimes winning games for them. It sounds like the team wants to give their up-and-coming star Adam Jones a shot in outfield next season, and with Ichiro & Raul Ibanez locked up, it could be kind of crowded with Guillen there too. Since Guillen can still exercise his option to stay, and it seems like he's really found a comfort zone in Seattle, maybe he'll still have a chance to remain. I think that another big reason for the team not exercising his option was his $9 million salary for '08.

Both of these guys' rookie cards from '96 are probably trading in the "commons" price range, and would be a risky buy, given their uncertain futures and mid-career ages. I personally would like to see both of them do well, and gain some sort of hobby interest. But, as we all know, every season brings in a new crop of young future stars, so the number of veteran players that can hold collectors' attention inevitably decreases to make room for them. So, unfortunately, I would say that their time in the hobby has probably passed, but I wish them luck all the same.

NBA Expectations

With the first week of the season almost complete, we've already seen the Lakers blow out the Suns by 21 in Phoenix, Gilbert Arenas blog about beating the Celtics on 11/2 (and then failing to do so), and of course the Kobe drama has been a constant underlying media irritation for who knows how long. Some of the things that I'm waiting to see this year ar

• Will Tyson Chandler finally up his scoring numbers to go along with his double-digit rebounding, so he can become the hobby star he was expected to be?
  
• Will Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson & cast be able to hold off the Jazz to stay atop the Northwest Division?


• Will Grant Hill turn out to be the missing piece of the puzzle that has kept the Suns from winning a Championship?

Carlos Boozer has started the season off strong, averaging 31 points & 15.5 rebounds in his first two games. Kind of reminicent of last season. Hopefully (unlike last season), he'll be able to maintain it & stay healthy throughout the year. Last season Boozer's cards experienced the roller coaster effect, jumping early on when he was playing well, then falling when he got hurt, and never fully rebounding after he came back.

Marcus Camby, one of the best defensive players in the league, is averaging 18 rebounds & 5.5 blocks in his first two games of the season. I think that most of the hobby attention will be centered around Melo & AI if Denver is successful this season. That should keep Camby's cards in the realm of affordability. I'm going to be keeping my eye out for deals on his 96-97 Skybox Autographics Auto & Emerald Auto, his only rookie-year autos.

Leandro Barbosa was one of my favorite up-and-comers last season. He'll probably still come off the bench this year (especially with the addition of Grant Hill), but I think it'll be good for him in the long run, when that day finally comes for him to start. Barbosa can drive to the hoop or shoot the three, and he's one of the fastest guys out there while dribbling the ball. He had 23 points last night against the Lakers (although a lot of them came when the game was pretty much over), shooting 10-for-14 FG & 3-for-5 from 3-PT. I like his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999. It's one of only a few base Auto rookies that showcase his extended signature (opposed to his "LB" or "LB#10" sig).

Post-Season King of the Mound: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett was nearly flawless through his four '07 post-season starts, pitching 30 innings and allowing only 4 ER & 2 BB with 35 K's and a 1.20 ERA. In this World Series, he actually pitched better (in ERA, K's/9IP & BB/9IP) than he did in '03, when he won the WS MVP with the Marlins. Despite his modest regular-season ERA of 3.27 (6th in AL) and 194 K's (7th in AL), he should still be a close-to-consensus AL Cy Young award winner.


His 99 Ultimate Victory RC, which could regularly be found for less than $10 early in the season, started rising in value as the year progressed, averaging around $19 TAC in July, $24 in August, and then back down to $19 in September (despite going 4-1 for the month). Then came October. It averaged $30 for the month, with one sale going for $43.50 TAC after Boston won the World Series. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 has also been a hot item. This card, which by the way is not his RC card, could be bought for around $40 at the end of the regular season. It averaged $68 in October, and I saw one sell for $162.50 on 10/28! I'm thinking that one was probably a glitch (either multiple bidders got carried away, or an inexperienced buyer didn't know the market), but still!



Now is not the time to buy Beckett's cards. They're probably either at or close to their peak, so if you didn't already buy, you missed the boat. You might want to look into picking up another Red Sox pitcher, who missed the post-season due to injury; Clay Buchholz. His 05 Bowman Chrome RC has dropped a lot since hitting a high of around $25-30 after his no-no. You could pick one up this month for $10-15 TAC.


*Interesting Boston Fact: When Babe Ruth was pitching for the Red Sox, he had a World Series record of 2-0, with a 0.87 ERA.

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 3

• 02 UD Propsect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto XRC - Fielder had a nearly-MVP-type season, hitting 50 HR (1st in NL) & 119 RBI (T3rd in NL); only his .288 batting avg kept it from being a complete MVP season. His "original" hot-card, the 02 UD PP Auto XRC, was topping the $200 TAC mark at the beginning of summer, but fell to $185 in July, $148 in August, and $147 in September (despite his end-of-the-season rally, hitting .333 with 11 HR & 22 RBI that month). Even though Fielder kept up his homerun hitting, he lost a lot of hobby attention to his teammate Ryan Braun. I've only seen one of these cards sell in October, and it went for an all-season low of $108.54, on 10/21. The 23-year-old slugger should have many great seasons ahead of him, and this card will remain a classic collectors item for fans & investors alike.




• 03 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard Auto RC - Howard hit 47 HR & 136 RBI this season. Unfortunately, he also broke the single-season record for strike-outs, with 199. His top base rookie, 03 BB Auto RC, reached as high as the $500's range at one point, but fell to $380-400 through the summer, and settled at $370 in September. After the Phillies were knocked out the NLDS, the market for this card got even worse. In October, it's averaging $274 TAC. This might be the lowest point that I've seen it at. Can you imagine a guy hitting 47 HR (105 HR over the last two seasons!), and his best RC card actually drops in price? Talk about finicky buyers! Given the past price swings that we've seen, I would say that now might be a good time buy, since the value could easily almost double again in the future.




• 04 Bowman Chrome Felix Hernandez Auto RC - King Felix almost had his "break-out" season this year, but it was disrupted by injury early on. He finished with a decent 14-7 record and 3.92 ERA, which unfortunately translated into disappointment, since expectation was a lot higher after he began the season 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and 18 K's in 17 IP. His 04 BC Auto RC was selling close to the $200's range in April, but quickly fell while he was on the DL, and continued it's downward spiral after he returned and struggled to regain his pre-injury form. By June, it was averaging around $114 TAC, in July $112, in August $102, and by September $86. After the M's failed to reach the post-season, hobby interest in Felix's top rookie dropped off even more, averaging $76 in October. At 21 years old, why would anyone lose faith in this guy? I'm thinking that these are just minor setbacks in his path to stardom. Most pitchers aren't even in the majors at this age (he already has 2-1/2 seasons under his belt!).

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 2

• 00 Bowman Grady Sizemore Auto - Sizemore is another player that had his ups & downs this season, and his 00 Bowman Auto followed suit. This card peaked early in the season, in the $500's range (remember when he started the season with 3 HR in his first 3 games?), then proceeded to fall every month thereafter. In June it averaged around $300, in July $270, in August $216, and then finally in September (his lowest HR & RBI month of the season) it hit rock bottom at $186. When the Indians entered the post-season, there was a renewed interest in Sizemore, and, despite his so-so hitting (.279 with 2 HR & 3 RBI), his Bowman Auto started to rise, averaging $276 in October before Cleveland was eliminated from the ALCS, and then dropped back down to $215 immediately after their exit.
• 01 Bowman Chrome Jake Peavy Ref RC - Peavy, the best pitcher in the NL (in my opinion), had a terrific season, leading the NL in W's, K's & ERA (the triple crown of pitching). Throughout the sesaon, his 01 BC Ref RC was a pretty consistent seller at the $40-50 TAC range, only entering the $50-60 range a couple of times. His blown start at the end of the season (unfortunately to decide who would go on to the post-season) dropped his hobby status quite a bit. In October, this card averaged $38; down from $46.80 in September. I would rate it a strong buy if you can pick one up in the $30-35 range (which is possible).
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels RC - Hamels had a very good season, going 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA & 177 K's in 183-1/3 IP, to help the Phillies slip into the post-season. Hamels' 02 BCD RC peaked in June at around $27 TAC, then fell to $22 in July, $21 in August (he missed the 2nd half of Aug/1st half of Sep due to injury) and then down to $16 in September. He finished the regular season by tossing 8 shut-out innings against the Nationals (with 1 BB & 13 K's), and looked ready for the NLDS. Unfortunately, they faced the red-hot Rockies and became just 3 more notches in Colorado's amazing 21-1 run to the World Series. It looks like buyers have recognized the potential in Hamels, and are picking up his BCD RC while prices are low. In October, it's averaging $19.70 TAC.

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 1

Here's a look at some of the rookie cards that experienced big increases or decreases toward the end of the '07 regular season:

• 99 Topps Traded Alfonso Soriano Auto - Soriano had his ups & downs this season, but ended hot in September. For the month, he hit .320 with 14 HR (42% of his season total) & 27 RBI (39% of his season total). His 99 TT Auto was averaging around $103 TAC during that time, and I thought it would shoot up even higher when he continued to tear it up in the post-season. Boy was I wrong. As the Cubs got swept out of the NLDS by the D-Backs, Soriano hit a terrible .143 BA with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 extra base hits & 4 K's. As a result, that same rookie year auto fell to an average price of $71.50 TAC in October (the last sale I saw went for $66.99 on 10/14). This off-season is probably a good time to buy Soriano's key cards, as they will surely go back up when he gets back on track in '08.
• 99 Topps Traded Carlos Pena Auto - Carlos Pena was one of the only bright spots in the D-Rays' offense this season. He deservedly won the Comeback Player of the Year award, after hitting an amazing 46 HR & 121 RBI. His 99 TT Auto was on fire late in the season, selling in the $55-60 TAC range through mid September. Then, it suddenly dropped down to the $18-30 range, for no apparent reason. He finished the season strong, hitting .318 with 13 HR & 29 RBI for the month, so I'm not sure why his hobby interest fell through the floor like that. My guess is that either collectors are viewing him as a one-season wonder, or, at 29-year-of-age, they'd rather focus their buying on some of the younger up-and-comers. I'm thinking that if he can show the same level of play in '08, at least some of the buyers out there will help to re-elevate his hobby stature.
  
• 00 Bowman John Lackey Auto - Lackey had a great season, going 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA (both career bests). Then came the post-season. Before the ALDS series with the Red Sox started, I remember hearing the TV commentator say that Lackey has never had much luck against Boston. I was thinking, "Nah, he'll do just fine. He's coming off of a career-season, so he should be able to hold his own against Josh Beckett." I guess I had too much faith in the Angels. After getting beat in game 1, 4-0, Lackey's 00 Bowman Auto immediately dropped from averaging $36 TAC in September, down to the low $20's. I think that because there was that known roadblock for Lackey (the Red Sox), he really needed to show that he could beat them in order to justify his star status in the hobby. When he failed to do so, that was pretty much it for him (at least until next season). If you want to pick up some his cards, now might be a good time to buy. Personally, I'm not a Lackey collector.
  

More to come!

Rockies NL Champs; What about Todd Helton?

That's a good question Jim. I was wondering the same thing. I'm thinking that Todd Helton won't experience the growth in hobby interest that Matt Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki have. Helton's level of play has really dropped off over the past 3 seasons (in every offensive category), and his contributions this post-season haven't been significant enough to reignite his hobby spark.

I remember those those days when his 93 Topps Traded RC was a hot commodity. Now, you can pick one up for less than $10 TAC. Since this is his only rookie card, and he is still one of the best hitters over the last decade (.332 career BA), I would say that this card remains a good investment, and a very nice piece in any collection.

Helton still has a chance to join the younger stars in the spotlight, if he can have a strong performance in the World Series. Let's hope that he can do better than his .154, 0 HR & 1 RBI through the NLDS & NLCS thus far. His interview after game 4 was quite moving, and it would be nice to see the Rockies pull off an upset for their veteran star.

NLCS Aftermath

The day after the Rockies eliminated the D-Backs from the NLCS, a Micah Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC sold for $7.55 TAC (as expected), down from it's average of $11-17 before game 4. On the other side, a 99 Bowman Chrome Matt Holliday RC sold for $22.67 TAC, up from it's average of $12-18 before game 4. No surprise there either.

Looking forward, I think that both Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki will experience even more hobby growth, and if Colorado miraculously wins the World Series, you can expect to be paying around $30+ for the Holliday's BC RC, and $90+ for Tulowitzki's 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399.

Owings, D-Backs Fail to Avoid Sweep

On Monday night, Micah Owings had a good start, pitching 3 scoreless innings, and scoring off of Conor Jackson's RBI single to give the D-Backs a 1-0 lead. Then, in the bottom of the 4th, Owings gave up back-to-back walks, followed by a 2-run, 2-out double (it was almost like Rockies' manager Clint Hurdle had seen the future in order to have known to make that change at that time). Earlier that inning, Owings had the wind knocked out of him while diving for a ground ball, which could at least partially explain his downfall thereafter. After a fumbled grounder by Jackson, a Kaz Matsui RBI single and a 3-run Matt Holliday home run, Owings exited the game, down 6-1.

I guess Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC won't be jumping to new heights anytime soon. It'll be a good time to buy his cards during the off-season, as they'll probably fall to very affordable levels. Matt Holliday's rookies should definitely experience a boost, especially after winning the NLCS MVP award. His 99 Bowman Chrome RC has been selling in the $12-18 range over the past week, with the refractor version averaging around $50 TAC.

The Rockies' shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, has already been heating up in the hobby. His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399 is averaging $63.75 for the month, with the most recent sales in the $70-75 range. It was selling in the low $40's just a month ago.

Micah Owings Gets His Chance in Crucial NLCS Game

On Sunday, the Rockies beat the D-Backs 4-1, to take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS. Micah Owings, the 25-year-old Arizona rookie pitcher, will get his chance in game 4 to show if he can live up the hype from the regular season, and establish his place in the hobby. Owings has been known for his hitting as much as his pitching (*see related Owings posts on 9/28, 9/20, 9/6 & 8/24), and the D-Backs are probably hoping that he can help them win from both the mound & the plate, since they've been outscored 12-4 in the first 3 games of the series.

His 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC (only Auto RC) averaged around $15 TAC in August, then fell to $10 in September (after the hype died down), and is currently trading in the $11-17 range. I think that once people saw his name on the roster, anticipation started to rise for his upcoming post-season debut, which is what has fueled prices to rise over the past couple of weeks. If he can help the D-Backs move on to game 5, his cards should experience an immediate jump again. His 05 Topps Chrome Update Ref Auto #'d 500 has been a consistent seller from August through now, for around $20 TAC. This card will also experience a nice jump in value, should his performance meet it's high expectations.

We'll see how everything shakes out on Monday night when Owings squares off against the Rockies' rookie pitcher, Franklin Morales. I'm not a fan of either team, but I'd prefer to see Arizona win this one, to avoid yet another sweep this post-season.

Oh, and if he can't get it done, then I guess you'll be able to pick up his TCU Auto RC for less than $10, and hope that it'll rise in '08 when he starts pitching again!

Player Focus: Stephen Drew

Stephen Drew, the younger brother of J.D. Drew, had a pretty unimpressive first full regular season in '07, hitting just .238 with 12 HR, 60 RBI & a .313 OBP. Then came the post-season. In the D-Backs' NLDS sweep of the Cubs, Drew hit .500 (4 extra base hits) with 2 HR, 4 RBI & a .500 OBP. So far in the NLCS though, he hasn't been as fortunate. In his team's first two loses, he's only hitting .250, with 0 HR & 0 RBI.

Drew's 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC is still selling at a pretty affordable price level. I saw a refractor version #'d 500 sell this past week for $67.76 TAC; not bad when you consider that Ryan Braun's equivalent card from the same year selling for $180-200.

Drew is only 24 years old, and he's part of a young, up-and-coming D-Backs squad who should be competing for a World Series championship in the years to come. My hat comes off to Arizona for making it this far. All along I had expected the Padres to take the NL West.

LDS Bright Spots

• Grady Sizemore, the Indians' lead-off hitter, had his ups & downs during the regular season, ending up with a modest .277 BA, 24 HR, 78 RBI & 33 SB. In the ALDS against the Yankees, he was definitely more on the up-side. In those 4 games, he hit .375 with an OBP of .524, 1 HR & 1 RBI. Sizemore will be key to Cleveland's success in the ALCS vs. the Red Sox. His coveted 00 Bowman Auto was a hot commodity at the beginning of the season, but started to consistently fall thereafter. In June it averaged around $300 TAC, then fell to $270 in July, $216 in August and $186 in September. The hobby has already recognized his post-season improvement, with his most recent sale (that I've seen) going for $360 on 10/7. There's another auction ending on 10/16, which should give us a better indication of the direction this card is truly going in.
  
• Manny Ramirez had a great showing in the ALDS series victory over the Angels. He hit .375 with a .615 OBP, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 5 BB, proving to the baseball world that he's back at 100% and ready to help lead his team to another pennant. I've already said in the past that Ramirez is one of the most underrated players in the hobby. Well, he still is! His 92 Bowman RC is still selling at rock-bottom price levels. Over the summer, it averaged in the $12-15 TAC range, and then fell to an all-time low of $8.20 in September. Who would've thought that you could buy the best rookie card (which happens to be a part of a pretty expensive set) of a future 500 HR Club & HOF'er for such a cheap price? So far in October, prices seem to be going up slightly, with an average TAC of around $10. Ramirez's key rookie cards are still a steal at current price levels, and are sure to increase as he continues to punish opposing pitchers.
  

Response to Question: Hobby Potential of Andruw Jones

Thanks for the question Jim. I'm a huge Andruw Jones fan (been one since his call-up over a decade ago), and it's been disappointing to see his two rookie cards, 95 Bowman's Best & Bowman, plummet in value over the past year or so. Jones had a very sub-par '07 season, batting .222 (career avg .263), with 26 HR (career avg 34/162 game season) and 94 RBI (career avg 103/162 game season), and the Braves are probably thinking that his best years are now behind him. But, keep in mind that he will most likely be a 500 HR club member by the time he retires (he currently has 368), and he's only 30 years old. I think that whatever team he ends up with will be able to benefit from Jones' batting skills for at least 5 more good years. He's been much healthier than a lot of other players, missing a total of only 52 games in the last 11 seasons (played in 97.1% of the regular season games).

Jones' Bowman's Best RC was averaging around $21.50 TAC throughout the summer, and then fell again to around $18.80 in September. So far in October, it's averaging about $19. His Bowman RC was averaging around $13-18 TAC throughout the summer, and fell to a dismal $11 average in September. So far in October, you can find them in the $11-13 range.

I do think that Jones' rookies have a chance to rebound, initially depending on what team he goes to (i.e. depending on the team's strength, his role within the team, etc.), and then once more during the '08 season (as long as his performance rebounds also).

The $ value of Jones' cards don't really matter to me, since I'll probably never sell the ones that I have, but I would like to see his hobby status raised back up to where he deserves to be.

Thanks again for the question!

LDS Meltdowns

• Alfonso Soriano ended the season on such a great note, hitting .320 with 14 HR & 27 RBI in September. I thought momentum would carry his hot streak into the post-season, but unfortunately he fell flat, hitting a dismal 2-for-14 (.143) with 0 extra base hits, 1 BB & 4 K's. Soriano's 99 Topps Traded Auto was selling in the $100-105 range last month, but I think that it'll probably drop down below $100 TAC as he & rest of the Cubs head off to an earlier-than-expected off-season.
  
• Angels superstar Vladimir Guerrero had a decent regular season, hitting .324 with 27 HR & 125 RBI, helping his team to the AL West title. Then came the ALDS. The Angels had such a poor offensive showing against the Red Sox, and Vlady was no exception. He hit 2-for-10 (.200) with 0 extra base hits, 1 BB and 0 K's (only bright spot). His 05 Bowman's Best RC is averaging around $31 TAC in so far in october, down from $35 in September. I expect it to continue to drop through the off-season, down to around the $18-25 range.
  

Which players are more valuable in the hobby: those that excel in the regular season, but flop in the post-season, or those who are ok in the regular season, and then explode in the post-season? Of course the true challenge is to find the players who can do both. A topic for a future post...

Unsung Hero: Brandon Webb

All season I've been writing about how Jake Peavy is the best pitcher in the NL (if not the entire league), while another ace (who's team beat out Peavy's Padres for he NL West title) was also putting together a strong season. Brandon Webb, Arizona's 28-year-old RHP, ended the regular season with 18 W's (2nd in NL; career best), a 3.01 ERA (2nd in NL) and 194 K's (4th in NL; career best). He also had a great outing in game 1 of the NLDS, pitching 7 strong innings and allowing just 4 hits & 1 run, with 9 K's to shut down the Cubs (the only extra base hit that he gave up that game was a double to fellow pitcher Carlos Zambrano).

I haven't been watching any of Webb's cards on a regular basis, but I do know that he hasn't received that much hobby attention for a while (I sold all of my Webb rookies a couple of years ago). Webb has been pretty consistent throughout his 5-year career, maintaining his ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (career 3.22). I think that he could have potential as a hobby star, but not as much as guys like Peavy or C.C. Sabathia.

Thanks for the comment Jim, reminding me about Webb. He definitely does deserve mentioning!

A New Strike-Out King: Ryan Howard

Phillies slugger Ryan Howard has been a beast at the plate, hitting 47 HR & 136 RBI this year (giving him 105 HR & 285 RBI in his first two full seasons in the majors!). He also accomplished another amazing feat this season, one for which he is now enshrined in the record books; the single-season strike-out record (199). Adam Dunn must be feeling a little sigh of relief, since he previously held the top two spots for single-season strike-outs, with 195 (in '04) and 194 (in '06).

Last season, on average, Howard struck out every 2.66 at-bats. This season, that average jumped to every 3.21 at-bats. I'm sure that the Phillies' batting staff will be working with him to reduce those numbers for next season, but hopefully his long-ball production won't suffer as a result.

Despite Howard's spectacular HR & RBI display, it seems like his strike-outs & mediocre batting average have weighed on his card values. His 01 UD Prospect Premiers XRC ended the season averaging around $20 TAC, down from $22 in August & $26 in July. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC averaged $371 in September, down from $400 in August & $388 in July. With the Phillies on the brink of elimination in the NLDS, I don't expect Howard's cards to rebound this year (unless they can pull-off a miraculous comeback, led by Howard's big bat).

MLB Briefs

• On 9/28 (the same day Boston clinched the AL East) it was announced that Clay Buchholz, the young Red Sox pitcher, would miss the rest of the season & post season due to shoulder fatigue. His 05 Bowman Chrome Draft RC dropped in TAC value from the $20-25 range back in early September down to the $9-11 range at the end of the season. This slide was the result of a loss of hype in subsequent starts after his no-no.
  
• Alfonso Soriano hit 6 lead-off home runs in September; the most ever in the majors (he had a total of 13 HR for the month). For the season, he hit .299 with 33 homers. We'll see if he can spark the Cubs in the post-season as well. His 99 Topps Traded Auto averaged around $100-105 in September, up from $97 in August. It's still a relatively low price for this card (it averaged $118 in July & $122 in June).
  
• Carlos Pena has won the 07 Comeback Player of the Year award, after hitting a career high (by far) 46 HR & 121 RBI for the D-Rays. His 99 Topps Trade Auto was selling in the $50-60 TAC range in early September, but suddenly fell to the $20-30 range mid month, even though he hit 7 HR in his last 13 games of the season. Maybe collectors see him as a one-season wonder, or they've turned their attention to playoff-bound players. I'm not really sure why his only rookie-year auto dropped so drastically, but for those that do have faith in his future prospects, now might be a good time to buy (or we might even see further price erosion during the off season).
  

Peavy Ends Cy Young Season on Bad Note

Jake Peavy, this year's NL-leader in W's (19), ERA (2.54) & K's (240), was given the start against the Rockies on Monday. I thought that he would ensure the Padres' wild card bid, but instead he got rocked for 10 hits & 6 earned in 6-1/3 innings pitched. Not the best way to end the season.

Still, despite this ending, Peavy had a great year, and deserves to win the NL Cy Young award. The only other pitcher that could be considered for it is the D-Backs' Brandon Webb, who came in 2nd in W's (18) & ERA (3.01), after Peavy, and 4th in K's (194). Webb pretty much cruised below the hobby radar this season, but could experience reinvigorated interest if he & Arizona do well this post season.

I'm still amazed that Colorado is in the playoffs (and that they won game 1 of the NLDS today against the Phillies!). They may end up being the surprise success story of the season that I had thought the Brewers were going to be.

Hamels Back on Track After DL

Phillies ace Cole Hamels had a spectacular start on Friday against the Nationals, pitching 8 shutout innings, and allowing just 6 hits & 1 BB with 13 K's. This was Hamels' 3rd start since returning from the DL, but it was his first decision.

With Philadelphia now on top of the NL East, and probably heading for the postseason, Hamels will have to play a key role in the team's success. If the Mets don't clinch a playoff spot, I'm expecting the World Series to showcase the Yankees vs. Phillies. This will create an opportunity for Hamels and his teammates to show their skills to much broader audience, and possibly elevate their hobby standing.

Hamels' 02 Bowman Chrome Draft RC has been sliding downward for the past few months, averaging $27 in June, $22 in July, $21 in August, and now $16-17 in September. I saw one of his BCD Ref RC's #'d 300 sell this month for $68 TAC.

I think that this 23-year-old pitcher is a solid buy at the current price range, and his values could easily double if he can continue to improve, along with his team.

D-Backs' Owings Shows He Can Hit & Pitch...Again!

Micah Owings had a great outing on Thursday, pitching 6-1/3 shutout innings, AND going 4-for-4 at the plate, with 3 doubles & 3 RBI. He became the first pitcher to have two 4-hit games in a season since Whitey Ford did it in '53.

Owings has been quite spectacular at the plate this season, batting .339 with 15 RBI and 20 hits; 12 of which have been extra-base hits (including 4 HR!). On the mound, though, he's been quite inconsistent. He's 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA for the season, but in his last two starts, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Hopefully this is a sign that he's finally finding his groove (the timing couldn't be better, with the D-Backs fighting to hold onto the NL West lead, and preparing for the post-season).

Owings' only rookie auto is his 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC, which is averaging $9.36 TAC in September; down from it's $15 average in August, when he had that great game against the braves, hitting 2 HR & 6 RBI (his other 4-hit game). Now might be a great time to buy this 24-year-old's cards (he just turned 24 today), while they're trading at very affordable prices. I still think that he could be a risky investment, but for less than $10, it might just be a risk worth taking!

Owings is also included in the 03 UD USA set. I saw one of his Red Auto's #'d 750 sell for $7.69 TAC this month.

MLB Briefs

• Padres' ace Jake Peavy picked up an uncharacteristic win on Wednesday over the Giants, striking out a season-low 1 batter, in 7 innings pitched. Peavy is now 19-6 with a 2.36 ERA (he leads the NL in both W's & ERA). His 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC is averaging around $47 TAC for September, up from $40.65 in August. I expect it to rise into the $50's range next month. Oh, did I mention that he also leads the NL in K's, with 234?
  
• Dustin McGowan is still trying to find consistency on the mound. The 25-year-old Bluejays pitcher has 12 starts in which he's allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. He also has 8 starts in which he's allowed 4 or more earned. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC is averaging $12.90 TAC in September, and has been selling more recently in $14-15 range. I still think that McGowan is a good investment, and a good buy at around $10-12.
  
• Troy Tulowitzki, the 22-year-old Colorado infielder, has played an integral role in his team's efforts to win the wild card this season. Through August & September, he's hitting .319 with 11 HR & 46 RBI (pretty good for a SS). His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto #'d 399 (the only set containing his rookie year auto) is averaging $41.24 in September; flat compared to August prices, and up from July's average of $35. Tulowitzki is still very young, and remains a very solid investment with strong long-term prospects.
  

MLB Briefs

• Alfonso Soriano had a big night on Saturday, going 3-for-4 with 2 HR, a 2B & 5 RBI against the Pirates. He has 12 HR & 22 RBI so far in September, his most productive month this season. Soriano's 99 Topps Traded Auto has been selling for between $95-105 through the August-September period, down from around $120 during June & July. Soriano is just 2 stolen bases away from having a 30 HR-20 SB season (he hasn't had a stolen base since August 1).
• Boston ace Josh Beckett earned his league-leading 20th W of the season on Friday against the D-Rays, out-dueling the young up-and-comer, Scott Kazmir. Beckett's 99 Ultimate Victory RC, probably his best base rookie card, has been averaging around $19 TAC this month, down from $24 in August. Collectors seem to have taken an increased interest in his 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500. It's averaging $57.50 in September, up from $35 in August, and $50 in July.
• Carlos Pena is having a slugger's dream of a season this year (see my related post on Sports Lizard) He went deep twice on Saturday to increase his season total to 42 HR (the most home runs he's had in previous seasons is 27 back in '04). Pena's 99 Topps Traded Auto was averaging around $60 TAC through the first 10 days of the September, but then strangely fell to around $20 the following week (one actually sold for $13.99 on 9/13!). Maybe collectors are being skeptical about his future prospects. I would say that if you can find one for $15-20, it's a pretty good price to buy at. Given his history, I just think that he needed to find the right team setting that would allow him to really show what he can do, and Tampa Bay just might be that team.

MLB Briefs

• Ken Griffey Jr., just 6 home runs shy of 600, suffered a season-ending groin strain on Wednesday against the Cubs. His 89 UD RC has been falling in TAC value for the past couple of months, averaging around $37 in July, $29 in August, and $27 in September. In the past few days, it's been selling for right around $20. Since we're going to have to wait till next season to him reach his career milestone, I expect his cards to drop a little more in the weeks to come.
• The D-Backs' Micah Owings had a great outing on 9/18 against the Giants, making us think that he's decided to focus on being a pitcher instead of a hitter. He tossed his first career shutout, allowing just 2 hits & 1 BB, with 4 K's. It's a big improvement over his last two starts, in which he allowed 7 earned in 5-2/3 innings pitched. Owings experienced increased hobby interest last month when he hit 2 HR & 6 RBI against the Braves, in addition to getting the W with 7 K's in 7 IP. His 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC averaged around $15 TAC in August. Since then, the hype has died down, and that same RC card has been selling for around $8 in September. I still think that Owings carries quite a bit risk as an investment, but for $8 TAC, the price may be right to buy.
• The Angels' Ervin Santana has been a feast or famine type of pitcher. This season, he's had 9 starts in which he's allowed 5 or more earned runs. On the other hand, he's had 10 starts in which he's allowed 2 or fewer earned. The 24-year-old has some skill, but is still obviously struggling to gain consistency. His 04 Bowman's Best Auto RC is probably his best base rookie card. There aren't many of them on auction, but those that are listed can probably be picked up at very reasonable prices. I would say that if you can find one in the $6 to $9 TAC range, it would be a decent price to buy at.
  

ML Briefs

• Padres ace Jake Peavy, now with a NL leading 18 W's & MLB leading 2.39 ERA, seems to be getting back on track with back-to-back wins, after a terrible outing against the D-Backs in which he allowed 8 earned in 4 IP. For the past month or so, there have been a noticeably fewer of his 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC's listed on auction. For September, sales have been averaging around $47 TAC; higher than it's July or August averages. Expect sales to increase to the $50-60 range very soon, as Peavy runs away with the NL Cy Young.
  
• Yovani Gallardo pitched 8 shutout innings to beat the Astros on Monday, extending his scoreless streak to 13 innings. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto RC #'d 803 has been falling in value every month though, averaging around $59 in June, $54 in July, and $47 in August. Now may be a good time to buy, with sales averaging $43 for the month of September. His 04 SP Prospects Auto RC #'d 400 on the other hand is red hot. It's averaging $110.51, up from $67.37 in August.
  
• Ryan Howard blasted 2 home runs & 5 RBI on Monday, to help his team beat the Cards 13-11. Howard is the #2 HR & RBI hitter in the NL. His 01 UD Prospect Premiers XRC is averaging around $21 TAC this month, with recent sales going for $16-19. There's just too much supply available for this card. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC is averaging $374.53 this month, with the Blue version /50 averaging $1,075.50, and one Red version /25 selling for $1,832 TAC. All of Howard's cards are down from their previous highs, and should have room to grow in value as Howard continues to hit home runs. I think that they would benefit even more if he raised his batting average (.262) and struck out less (185).
  

Rick Ankiel's Rookie Cards Plummet!

In an earlier post this past week, I mentioned how this whole HGH situation has caused Rick Ankiel's play to really hit the skids, and that as a result, his rookie cards are also heading downward. Boy was that an understatement! I saw one of his 99 SP Top Prospects Autos sell today for $8.04, and one of his 99 Ultimate Victory RC's sell for $7.55 TAC, after averaging $25.48 & $29.90 respectively for September.

I really hope that he can get past this whole controversy and regain his focus. He was having such a great comeback.

MLB Briefs

• The Yankees 22-year-old rookie pitcher Ian Kennedy had a strong outing on Thursday against the Blue Jays, going 7 innings and allowing just 1 hit, 1 run & 4 BB with 7 K's. He left the game tied up 1-1, and got a no decision. After three major league starts, Kennedy is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and is averaging 7.1 K's/9IP. I haven't seen any major league card releases for Kennedy, but he does have a few 04 UD USA Auto & Auto/Jsy cards that are seeing some activity on auction.
  
• Alfonso Soriano is only 2 stolen bases away from achieving his 5th 20 HR-20 SB season (last year he actually had a 40-40 season). Soriano is one of the best lead-off hitters in the league, but because he's been having a lot slower season (compared to last year), his 99 Topps Traded Auto has been falling in price every month. It averaged around $122 in June, then $118 in July and $97 in August. Now might be a good time to buy, if you can find them in the $90 range.
  
• Justin Verlander picked up his 17th win on Wednesday, striking out 7 in 7 innings, allowing just 1 run & 1 walk against the Rangers. The 24-year-old Detroit starter is on his way to having more wins, more K's/9IP, a lower ERA and fewer HR allowed this season than last. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC & Bowman Chrome Auto RC remain relative deals, averaging around $35 & $60 respectively. This guy is going to be one of the best pitchers over the next decade (or two), and remains a great investment.
  

Rick Ankiel Slumping Since HGH Report

The Cardinals' Rick Ankiel was red hot through 9/6, batting .358 with 9 HR & 29 RBI in 81 AB. Then came the report on ESPN about his alleged use of human growth hormones back in '04, before they were banned in '05. That report has had an obvious negative affect on Ankiel's play. Since 9/7, the day of the report, he has gone 2-for-24 with 0 HR & 0 RBI, dropping his overall batting average to .295.

Ankiel's key cards from '99 have dropped in value as a result of his current slump. His Ultimate Victory RC was selling for around $36 TAC last week, but is now averaging $19, with one selling yesterday for $17.01. His Ultimate Victory Parallel was selling in the $60's range last week, and is now going for less than half that price. His SP Top Prospects Auto was in the $30-40 range last week, and one sold today for $13.50.

I hope that Ankiel can snap back soon, and resume his dominant play at the plate. If he did indeed stop usage of HGH before it's ban, I think that it sucks that it was brought up now, while he was having such a great major league comeback.

MLB Briefs

• D-Rays ace Scott Kazmir had a dominating outing on 9/10, shutting down the Red Sox 1-0. Kazmir pitched 7 innings, allowing 5 hits 0 runs & 2 BB, with 10 K's. He out dueled veteran Curt Schilling, who also had a solid start, going 6 innings and allowed 5 hits, 1 run, 1 BB with 5 K's. In 5 starts against Boston, Kazmir is 1-2 with a 2.64 ERA & 8.8 K's/9 IP. If he played for a better team, he probably would've been 3-2 (in his 2 no decisions, he didn't allow a single run, pitching 12 shutout innings). There haven't been too many sales for Kazmir's Auto rookies this month. His 02 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC is averaging around $41 TAC.
  
• Yovani Gallardo has started off the month of September very strong. In his first two starts, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and is averaging 8.31 K's/9 IP. A great turnaround after his terrible August, when he went 3-3 in six starts, with a season-worst 7.55 ERA. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto #'d 803 is selling in the high $40's this month, and his 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400 is averaging around $110 TAC.
  
• Wily Mo Pena had a hot night on 9/10 vs. the Marlins, going 3-for-4 with 2 HR & 3 RBI. Collectors have been waiting a long time for the 25-year-old slugger to find the right team to give him the chance to have a breakout season. Hopefully the Nationals will be one. His 99 Bowman Chrome RC can probably be found for less than $5 TAC on auction. I'm keeping my eye out for deals on his 99 Bowman Chrome Refractor.
  

Pitching Match-Up: Dustin McGowan vs Edwin Jackson

On 9/7, two young guns matched up for a strike-out fest. Dustin McGowan & Edwin Jackson combined for 18 K's in 13-2/3 IP (11.85 K's/9IP). The 25-year-old McGowan emerged victorious, allowing just 2 runs off of 4 hits, with 1 BB & 12 K's in 8 IP. Jackson allowed 7 earned in 5-2/3 IP (with 6 K's), including a 3-run homer to the Blue Jays' veteran catcher Gregg Zaun.

McGowan's been having an up-and-down year, and his 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC has reflected it. It averaged $33 TAC in June, then fell to around $13 in July, then back up to $19 in August. Month-to-date, it's averaging around $13, with it's last sale at $9.75. One of his 03 Bowman's Best Red Auto's, which are limited to 25, sold last week for $207.50 TAC.

Jackson had a terrible first 3 months this season, with a 2-11 record & 6.56 ERA. It looked like he was turning things around in August, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 5 starts (in two of those starts, he only allowed 2 ER, but got a loss & a no decision), but September has been his worst month of all, through his first two starts (0-2 & 13.00 ERA). There are very few of Jackson's key rookie cards up on auction, so I'm guessing that collectors are waiting for him to have a break out season, and values to rise before selling them. At only 24 years old, I think that he still has a chance to gain consistency and fulfill his potential. I like his 03 Donruss Elite EE TOTC Auto #'d 100.

Pitching Match-Up: Dustin McGowan vs Edwin Jackson

On 9/7, two young guns matched up for a strike-out fest. Dustin McGowan & Edwin Jackson combined for 18 K's in 13-2/3 IP (11.85 K's/9IP). The 25-year-old McGowan emerged victorious, allowing just 2 runs off of 4 hits, with 1 BB & 12 K's in 8 IP. Jackson allowed 7 earned in 5-2/3 IP (with 6 K's), including a 3-run homer to the Blue Jays' veteran catcher Gregg Zaun.

McGowan has been having an up-and-down year, and his 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC has reflected it. It averaged $33 TAC in June, then fell to around $13 in July, then back up to $19 in August. Month-to-date, it's averaging around $13, with it's last sale at $9.75. One of his 03 Bowman's Best Red Auto's, which are limited to 25, sold last week for $207.50 TAC.

Jackson, on the other hand, had a horrible first few months of the season (2-11, 6.56 ERA through July), and was finally getting it together in August (2-1, 2.45 ERA for the month). Unfortunately, September has been looking pretty bleak; he's 0-2 in his first 2 starts, with a 13.00 ERA. I still think that he has potential, and his rookie cards are worth investing in. I like his 03 Donruss Elite EE TOTC Auto #'d 100. There are very few of his key rookies listed on auction, so people are probably holding on to them until he has a break out season, and his values start to rise.

Both pitchers are fairly young, have potential to be stars, and their rookie cards are very affordable. Sounds like the makings of a good investment to me.

MLB Briefs

• Alex Rodriguez became the first Yankee since Roger Maris & Mickey Mantle (1961) to hit 50 home runs in a single season. In his last 4 games, he's batting .643 with 6 HR. Hopefully ARod will be able to continue his awesome offense in the post-season, unlike in the past. His 94 SP RC is currently selling in the $100-110 TAC range. The last sale that I saw for his 94 SP D/C RC was for $133 TAC.
  
• Jim Thome looks to become the next member of the 500 HR club, hitting his 497th on 9/8. Unfortunately, his rookie cards were included in the overproduced '91 sets, so he doesn't get much hobby love.
  
• Phillies' ace Cole Hamels is expected to return in about 2 weeks. His 02 Bowman Chrome Draft RC was averaging around $17 TAC this month, until one sold today for $28.50. Not sure if it's a sign of collector confidence rebounding, or just a case of auction fever. His BCD RC averaged $22 in August, and $23 in July.
  

Most Underrated: Tom Gorzelanny

One of the most underrated pitchers in the hobby is the Pirates' Tom Gorzelanny. Overall this season, he's 14-7 with a 3.48 ERA (for a team that's 62-79; 2nd worst in the NL). His ERA is better than some of the hotter pitchers out there, like Chien-Ming Wang (3.68), Roy Halladay (3.94), Justin Verlander (3.56) and Carlos Zambrano (4.35), but his rookie cards don't even come close to these players' card values. This year, he's allowed 3 or fewer runs in 21 of his 28 starts (2 or fewer runs in 16 starts).

His best rookie (in my opinion) is his 03 UD Prospect Premiers Auto, which was selling in the $14-15 TAC range through June & July, but fell to $10-11 in August, and now can be found for less than $10.

The other rookie-year Auto that I've seen is his 03 Bowman Heritage Auto, which can be found in the $7-10 TAC range.

Gorzelanny is having a break out season, and hopefully it's just the start of a solid career.

In the News: Erik Bedard

Orioles' ace Erik Bedard may be out for the rest of the season. With a strained right oblique muscle and just 3 weeks left to play, it may not make sense for him to go through rehab and try to return this year (and possibly make his injury worse). Bedard was having a career season, with a 13-5 record, 3.16 ERA and a league-leading 221 K's (a club record for a single season).

Bedard's best rookie, his 01 Donruss Class of 2001 RC #'d 625, was selling for around $60 TAC before his injury. On 9/5, while his immediate future was still up in the air, one sold for $54.01. I expect future sales of this card to drop a little more if he doesn't come back this year. Nothing has indicated that this injury is career threatening, so Bedard should still remain a decent hobby buy. I say just "decent" only because he seems to be a little injury-prone. He definitely has the skill to be a top-notch ace.

Rick Ankiel & HGH

The New York Daily News reported yesterday that Rick Ankiel had received a 12-month supply of HGH (Human Growth Hormone) in '04, but stopped receiving it before the the ban in '05. MLB said that players who have used HGH, or were in possession of it after the ban could face a 50-game suspension. Hopefully no wrongdoing will be found, and Ankiel will be able to continue to help the Cards make a run at the NL Wild Card.

Player Focus: Tom Shearn

30-year-old rookie pitcher Tom Shearn was playing for Louisville of the International League before his 8/26 call-up, where he posted an unspectacular 7-10 record and 4.20 ERA. He replaced Kirk Saarloos in the Reds' rotation. Shearn seems to be doing better in the majors than he did at Triple-A, going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his first 3 starts. He was very impressive in his last outing against the NL-leading Mets, going 6 innings and allowing only 3 hits, 0 runs & 3 BB, helping his team to a 7-0 win.

Looking on ebay, it seems like Shearn has several rookies from '02, but the only Auto that I see is his 02 SPx Auto RC. Given his age, I don't know how big of a hobby hit he'll become, but for true fans of Shearn or the Reds who want to buy his cards, they should be able to find them at very affordable price levels.

Rick Ankiel Has Found His Calling

Rick Ankiel had a monster game today, going 3-for-4, hitting 2 home runs, a double and 7 RBI! With this type of play, it's no wonder why his hobby status is climbing so quickly. His 99 Ultimate Victory RC & SP Top Prospects Auto are averaging $31 & $40 respectively, up from around $16 & $25 in August. His 99 Ultimate Victory Parallel is selling in the $50's range, up from the high $20's last month.

Ankiel may replace Ryan Braun at the top of the hobby charts if he keeps this pace up!

Player Focus: Yovani Gallardo

On 9/5, Yovani Gallardo pitched 7 shut-out innings to help the Brewers beat the Astros 14-2. Sluggers Prince Fielder & Ryan Braun contributed a HR & 3 RBI each to help with the team's offense.

Gallardo was 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA through the end of July, but really hit some rough patches in August. In three of this starts that month, he allowed a combined 23 ER in 11-1/3 IP, which jumped his overall ERA from the mid 2.00's to the high 4.00's. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto RC #'d 803 fell from an average TAC price of $54.50 in July to $47.53 in August, as a result. His 04 SP Prospects Auto RC #'d 400 was selling in the $160-170 range in August. One sold on 9/2 for $105.

Hopefully Gallardo has gotten all of the bad out of his system, and can now focus on helping his team into the post-season. The Brewers' rotation could really use the boost, with 4 of their 6 starters posting an ERA of 4.75 or higher.

Player Update: Jake Peavy

I guess Jake Peavy's dominant unbeaten streak couldn't last forever. In a crucial game against NL West-rival Arizona, Peavy took an uncharacteristic pounding, giving up 8 earned in just 4 innings pitched. This was his first loss since 7/22.

In this series, the D-Backs were able to beat both of the Padres' ace starters. On 9/4, Chris Young lasted only 4 innings, as Arizona tagged him for 5 runs off of 2 home runs.