Red Hot Rookie: Ryan Braun

In only his 8th ML game, the Brewers rookie, Ryan Braun, went 3 for 3 yesterday vs. the Marlins, hitting a HR, double & single. The 23 y.o. 3rd baseman, who was called up on 5/24 from AAA Nashville, is hitting .300 with 2 HR, 6 RBI & 2 SB.

His Auto RC's from 2005 have been very hot sellers. There are quite a few of his Bowman Chrome Draft Auto, Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Ref #'d 500 and Bowman Sterling Auto RC's listed on auction. Expect to pay above book price for these cards. I just saw a Bowman Chrome Auto sell for $104.10 TAC today.

The Brewers have a 6.5 game lead in the NL Central (2nd biggest lead in the ML for a division leader), and they finally have some exciting young players to attract hobby interest (Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr.). Braun is a welcome addition to this young up-and-coming squad, which should be a top NL contender for years to come.

Player Focus: Erik Bedard

Last season, Erik Bedard had career bests in wins (15), ERA (3.76) and K's (171). His first 5 games this season weren't so memorable; 3-2 record with a 6.11 ERA. Through his next 6 starts, he had 5 ND's & 1 loss. During this winless streak though, he turned his pitching around and was quite impressive (unfortunate that his record couldn't reflect it). Through those 6 games, he had an ERA of 2.70 (2.12 for his 5 May starts) with 52 K's in 40 IP (11.7 K's/9 IP).

Bedard finally got his 4th win last night vs. the Royals. He went 8 innings, allowing 4 hits, 0 runs and had 5 K's. Guess he needs to shut out the opposing team to get a W!

He only has 2 base RC's: 01 Bowman Draft Picks & 01 Donruss Class of 2001 #'d 625. There aren't many listed on auction, but you can readily find his BDP RC for around $3 to $5 TAC. His Donruss RC is much more elusive, with none currently listed on ebay. Many sellers will try to pass off some of his 02 cards as RC cards, but they are not. Especially his 02 Bowman Draft SOTF Auto. It's probably his 1st MLB licensed auto card (and not a bad card to have), but it's not his RC.

I don't think that his BDP RC will appreciate in value that much because of it's lack of scarcity, but if you can find his Donruss Class of 2001 RC at a good price, it might be a nice investment to make.

Follow Up: Lebron James

Right after my last post about how Lebron James wasn't living up the the hype, he goes & scores 32 pts with 9 rebounds & 9 assists, to lead the Cavs to 88-82 game 3 victory. Was this game an exception, or did it just take two loses to bring his heart back into the game? Whatever it is, I hope he keeps it up. It would be a fitting chapter in his storied young career to go to the NBA Finals just after 3 shorts years as a pro. There's also the added bonus of having a new team in the finals to battle on behalf of the Eastern Conf. I'm not a Jazz or Cavs fan, but I think that these two teams would make a fun finals to watch. It would represent a sort of changing of the guard, with Lebron, Deron Williams & Carlos Boozer exciting the fans.

Player Focus: Ken Griffey Jr.'s Comeback; King Felix's Return

Back in the mid 90's, when I restarted collecting cards, Ken Griffey Jr. was the hottest player in the hobby, and his 89 Upper Deck RC was a must have for everyone's collection. I remember finding a store that had mint ungraded versions for $55, and I was so thrilled to pick one up and get it slabbed by PSA (it got a 9).

Over the next decade, he spent a lot of time on the DL, and his hobby status fell off the chart (along with Frank Thomas, who was also in the "top 3" at that time). You can now find his UD RC for less than $20 TAC. A very sad sight to see! In April he only had 1 HR, and had a BA of .254. In May though, he has stepped it up, hitting 10 HR and batting .313 (through 5/27). I would love to see him continue this pace, and hopefully his key RC's will be able to regain some of their previous glory. Griffey was the 6th fastest player to reach 500 HR back in 04, and is a definite future HOFer. I think that at these prices, his RC's are a steal.

Felix Hernandez made his return on 5/15 as planned, and in his 3 starts since, he's gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and allowed 22 hits; a far cry from his first 2 outings in April before his injury when he went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA & allowed only 4 hits. I'm sure no one expected him to come back & perform exactly where he left off. It'll take a little while to get back into the swing of things. A couple positives for his return are:

• He still hasn't allowed a HR
• He hasn't forgotten how to strike out batters; he's actually increased his K's/9IP from 9.53 in his first two outings to 12.21 in his last 3

Since his return, sales for his two key Auto RC's have been quite scarce. I think collectors are holding on to them until he makes a full comeback and boosts prices back up to where they were in April. I saw a Bowman Chrome Auto sell for a TAC of $128 on 5/21 (it peaked out at $220+ right before his injury), and two Bowman's Best Auto RC's sell on 5/19 & 5/26 for $81 & $93 respectively (peaked out at $120+ before his injury). I think that he'll regain his dominant form within the next month or so, and prices will be back on the rise before we know it. In the meantime, I'll be keeping my eye out for some deals to snag!

Breaking News: Upper Deck buying Topps?

By now, everyone has heard about the $385 million ($9.75 a share) offer that the Michael Eisner-led group made to buy The Topps Company. Yesterday it was announced that Upper Deck made a $424 million ($10.75 a share) bid for Topps.

So far, 3 of the 10 Topps board members have opposed the Eisner bid. One member said that it undervalued the company. Topps said that some of the issues that they have with Upper Deck's bid include "financing commitments, a due-diligence review and what Topps said was Upper Deck's insistence on limiting its liability if antitrust regulators don't approve the proposed acquisition." (Source: The Wall Street Journal, 5/25/07).

Can you imagine one huge card company controlling all NBA brands, and nearly all MLB & NFL brands? Personally I think that even if Topps' board approves this sweeter offer, regulators will shoot the deal down. I'm guessing that the two companies together produce over 95% of the cards out there. Especially with Fleer already being absorbed into the Upper Deck family, how could this be allowed? Talk about lack of competition! Upon receiving the news, investors pushed Topps' stock up to a $10.26 close yesterday.

In addition to anti-trust regulators, Major League Baseball must also approve the deal.

King James Who?

I have to say that with all the hype & expectation of Lebron James, his performance during this Eastern Conf Finals with Detroit has been a little disappointing. In the first game he decides not to take the final shot for the win, and instead dishes to Donyell Marshall to shoot the three. Marshall is an ok 3-pt shooter, but come on! Marshall is averaging 3.8 ppg in 8.5 mpg during these playoffs. That was Lebron's shot to take.

Lebron is only averaging 14.5 ppg this series, opposed to 27.8 ppg vs the offense-only Wizards & 24.7 ppg vs the Nets. Does that mean that when he finally plays against a good defensive team he can't deliver? When I've watched some of his games, I don't feel the same intensity that I do when watching guys like Kobe, Dwayne wade or Steve Nash. I don't doubt that he has the talent & potential, but maybe at this time, he doesn't deserve to be at the top of the hobby value list. I'm sure there are a lot of people out there that don't agree with that, but to me a superstar leaves everything out on the floor, win or lose. That's why my perception of Dirk Nowitzki dropped, after his no-show performance in the GS series.

I'm hoping that Lebron can capture that champion's fire, and that he can become the player that everyone is expecting him to be. At 22 years old, he's got some time. For now though, I would expect that a lot of his key RC's will drop in value (especially since he has SO MANY Auto, GU, & low #'d RC's out there!), creating some investment opportunities for the future.

Phoenix Suns Knocked Out of Playoffs

I was very disappointed to see the Suns ousted by the Spurs. The Suns' great offense & so-so defense couldn't stand up to the Spurs' well-oiled machine. Here's a look at the activity for Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire & Leandro Barbosa's key RC cards.

• Steve Nash - His Topps Chrome RC (his best base RC) had been increasing in average TAC every month, going from $28.94 in Feb, to $32.79 in Mar, to $36.88 in Apr and to $40.22 in May (thru 5/17, the day before their elimination). That's a 39% gain in roughly 2 1/2 months! His Topps Draft Redemption RC averaged $44.40 in Apr and jumped to $55 in May (up till elimination). Without the MVP award or championship, I wonder if his cards will hold their current high values till next season. I'm guessing that they will come down some, creating opportunities for buyers in the coming months.
  
• Amare Stoudemire - His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 has been a steady seller for around $70 to $77 from Jan to elimination. The next sale that I saw after their exit was for $58; a drop of roughly 20%. This could be a sign of buyers' deals to come. His SPA Auto RC #'d 1500, Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 999 & Finest Auto RC #'d 999 have been selling in the $45 to $55 range over the past month. Expect these to also come down in price.
  
• Leandro Barbosa - His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 averaged around $23.80 through Feb & Mar, then jumped to $30.11 in Apr (+26%). In May, during the playoffs, demand seemed to drop off, with TAC averaging $24.50, an 18.7% decrease. This is probably due to his drop in production as the playoffs progressed. Sellers must be holding onto these cards now because I've only seen 2 listed since elimination. His Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1250 (his only other base RC with full sig) jumped in avg TAC from $15.63 in Mar to $21.92 in Apr (+40%). Then in May, it saw a modest 10% increase to $24.17. Like his SPx RC, there haven't been many listed since elimination (one to be exact, available on auction). He still has a bright future, so take advantage of market softness when it comes.

I'm afraid that we're going have a boring championship series with the Spurs & Pistons. Neither team has players with much hobby interest, so collectors/investors will probably spend the time looking for deals on the players who are already on their long vacations.

NY Yankees: ARod & Jeter

Alex Rodriguez seems to getting his groove back, hitting 3 HR in his last 3 games. His SP RC's are still at depressed price levels, with an average TAC of around $55 to $60. Even after his slump he still leads the MLB in both HR & RBI. Just less than a month ago these same cards were going for $90 to $100+ (the highest sale that I saw was on 4/26 for $140!). His SP Die Cut RC has already started to pick up in demand, averaging around $80 to $90 (although there are still deals out there if you watch the auctions closely). I wouldn't be surprised if both of these cards rebounded back up to the $120+ range if ARod gets back on track.

Yankee teammate Derek Jeter has been hot at the plate, with a BA of .365 (2nd in the AL only to fellow NYY Jorge Posada, who's hitting .374). Jeter's 93 SP RC has been slowly dropping in TAC since March. It's averaging around $45 for the month of May ($40 avg in the past week). Being that Jeter is the Yankees' captain (and heart & soul), I think that his card values are pretty closely tied to the Yankees' success as a team. If they can turn their season around, look for his key RC's to start creeping up as well.

Peavy RC Year Auto Update

That 01 Topps Fusion Jake Peavy Auto that I mentioned in a previous posting that was at $144.38 with 8 hours left finally sold for a whopping $205.50! Currently there are two listed on auction; one that ends in 3 days with a BIN or Best Offer at $247.44, and one with a fixed price of $203.00 (all incl s&h). Just amazing how this card caught fire in just a week or so, jumping in TAC (total acquisition cost) by well over 200%!

Utah Jazz Advance to Conf Title Game

The Jazz, as a team, outplayed the Warriors. They had better ball movement, and killed GS on the offensive boards. GS's 3-pt shooting strategy is great when they're on, but sinks them when they're off. Two players with hobby potential that really contributed to the Jazz's win were Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap.

Boozer had hobby love at the beginning of the season, but lost it when he got injured and had a hard time regaining it since. With his strong performance in the playoffs I expect him to receive more interest. He was pretty dominant in the paint, averaging 24.2 ppg & 14 rpg for the series (improving on his 20.9 ppg & 11.7 rpg for the season). His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 increased in average selling price (incl s&h) from $18.90 in April to $25.03 so far in May (+32.5%). If the Jazz can continue their success against the Spurs or Suns (which would be a surprise to me), expect his cards to stay on the rise.

I've been talking about young Millsap for the past few months. Excellent rebounder, and decent scorer in the paint. His coaches say that he works hard and listens, showing that he has the potential to keep improving. Although he only plays around 18 mpg, he puts up quality stats, especially with his offensive boards which result in second chance points. He doesn't have as many auto RC's as other 06-07 classmates, making those that he does have that much more attractive. Currently his Bowman Sterling Auto has become quite popular on auction. Expect to pay between $12 to $20 (incl s&h) for this one. There is also a Gold version #'d 219. This one will cost you over $20. So far, the Bowman Sterling is only Millsap base auto RC that I've seen. There is also the parallel Ovation Auto #'d 99. All others are inserts.

Of course we can't forget the most clutch player on the team, Derek Fisher. I didn't include him because I don't think that his hobby potential is very high. The only time his cards were hot was when he helped the Lakers advance in the playoffs a few years back. If you would like to pick up his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC for your personal collection, you can find it for just a few bucks.

Pitchers Spotlight

Here are some the 25 years or younger pitchers that I've been keeping tabs on:

• Tom Gorzelanny (PIT, 03 RC) - In 8 starts, he is 5-2 with an impressive 2.36 ERA & 34 K's in 53.1 IP. Gorzelanny has been one of the bright spots for the slumping Pirates so far. His 03 UD Prospect Premieres Auto & Bowman Heritage Auto have been hot sellers, averaging $24 & $16 respectively (although you can definitely find both of these for less with the right timing). As the Pirates' hitters start to finally do their thing, look for their key pitchers to push them to some W's.

• Ian Snell (PIT, 04 RC) - I think that Snell is the best pitcher the Pirates have right now. If he can keep consistent, he can be quite effective. In 8 starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA & 43 K's in 53 IP. I like his 04 SP Authentic Auto #'d 999 or 195 and his Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 75. You can probably find his SPA Auto for around $20, but expect to pay close to $55-60 for the Ultimate Coll Auto.

• Jake Peavy (SD, 01 RC) - Peavy has been the most dominant pitcher in the majors. He's 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 66 K's (MLB lead) in 53.1 IP. His best base RC, 01 Bowman Chrome Ref, has been selling for over $50 in the past month, but has eased some and can now be found in the $40-50 range. A lot of collectors assumed that he didn't have any RC year autos, but as soon as they found out he had ONE, there was a mad frenzy! I'm talking about the elusive 01 Topps Fusion Auto. Pre-discovery (on 4/24) one sold for $67.44. Post-discovery (5/16) one auction is currently at $144.38 (incl s&h), with 8+ hours to go! These are the only two that I've seen on auction recently
  

• Oliver Perez (NYM, 02 RC) - Perez has struggled through his first 4 years in the majors, but has shown some bright signs along the way, which the Mets obviously saw when they decided to pick him up last season. In his first 7 starts this year, he's 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA & 43 K's in 42 IP. He has 2 key base Auto RC's from 02, which are SPx Auto #'d 825 & Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 550. Since both are pretty fairly priced, go for the more limited Ultimate Coll, which can typically be found in the mid to high $20's range.
  

Player Focus: Kobe Bryant & Tyrus Thomas

This post is in response to a comment left by a fellow collector. First I'd like to say congrats on your great Bowman Sig Barbosa buy. That's a terrific price for that card.

Regarding Kobe, I think that his cards are very good investments. Even though his Lakers are out of the playoffs, and not at the same level as the Suns & Spurs (for now), he is still the best player in the game. Over the past 15 years there have been several players who have been dubbed the "heir apparent" (i.e. Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, etc...), but Kobe has emerged as the clear choice. He's got the work ethic, leadership skills, and of course, the talent. All the Lakers need now are a few more years of experience (for their younger players) and a decent point guard. Because Kobe has 3 autograph eras ("Kobe Bryant", "Kobe 8" & "Kobe"), the most coveted is his full signature, which was only featured in the 96 Press Pass set. It'll probably set you back between $200 to $300, but it is by far his rarest sig variation (a BGS 9 just sold on 5/6 for $276.50, incl s&h). I personally don't own any of his full sig autos, but sure wish I did! His Topps Chrome RC has dropped in price by 20% this month, averaging around $136. His 2nd & 3rd best RC's, his E-X2000 & Finest, moved up in price, averaging around $31 & $23.50 respectively (all prices that I write about include s&h costs).

I haven't been following Tyrus Thomas as much as other players, but I do think that he obviously has potential. I read a few articles that compared him to LaMarcus Aldridge during the regular season. Even though Aldridge got more playing time, Thomas is getting world of experience right now in the playoffs, that Aldridge is not. I think that he has a great opportunity to grow with fellow youngsters like Luol Deng & Ben Gordon, and learn from veterans like Ben Wallace, who have been there and won it all. I didn't like the statement that he made right before the dunk contest though, about how he's it it to win the money. Guess that could just be youth & inexperience talking. To answer your question, yes, I do think that all 3 of these players that you mentioned are good investments, as long as you pay the right prices for them.

Good luck with your collecting, and thanks for the comments!

Felix Hernandez Update

As of 5/6, Felix Hernandez's return is expected to come on 5/15 vs the Angels in SEA. I expect that his two key Auto RC's will start picking up steam soon. His Bowman Chrome Auto RC is currently selling in the $130's to $140's, and his Bowman's Best Auto RC in the $50's to $60's range; a long ways off from their highs of $200+ & $100+ respectively, back in mid April, before his injury.

Felix is young, and should bounce back pretty quickly. Pick up his RC's now, since they'll probably pick up steam again when he's back on the mound next week!

Golden State Warriors...Wow!

It was a spectacular thing to watch the Warriors dismantle the Mavs in game 6 last night. The main factor that gave them the edge to win was heart. With Baron Davis playing injured (and playing quite well), Stephen Jackson raining down the threes (7 for 8 to be exact), Matt Barnes (also playing injured) being aggresive at both ends of the court, and Andris Biedrins grabbing boards & scoring in the paint (and hitting 4 of 6 free throws, with his funky shooting form). The whole team played with hearts of winners, while the Mavs, especially their superstar Dirk Nowitzki (only scored 8 pts on 2 for 13 shooting), seemed to almost accept their losing fate earlier on. I think that Nowitzki set the overall tone for the team with his downer attitude. Don't expect to see his cards moving up any time soon, even if he does win the reg season MVP.

Already there is renewed interest in Baron Davis' key RC cards. I'd be surprised if other guys in this line-up don't experience the same. There's a nice 00-01 SP Game Floor Auto/Floor card #'d to 200 of Stephen Jackson on auction right now. It ends on 5/7, and the bid is at $18 (incl s&h).

As an investment though, I would only pick the guys that I think could have hobby appeal, which are Baron Davis, Jason Richardson & Mickael Pietrus. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the others, even if they play terrifically, hitting it big with collectors (kind of like most of the Detroit Pistons players).

One young player that I mentioned about in a previous post is the young Utah Jazz forward Paul Millsap (06-07 RC). This kid is really looking good. While at Louisiana Tech, he led the nation in rebounding three straight years (Freshman through Junior year). There was some concern about him being too short to compete in the NBA as a Power Forward, but I think that he's proven the doubters to be wrong. He has also shown that he can score too. Look for him to emerge in coming years as a star for this newly reborn Jazz team. Millsap doesn't have as many RC year Autos, as a lot of players do, so expect the ones that he does have to be hot items.

MLB April Wrap-Up

With April now behind us, let's take a look at how some of the players faired on the card market.

• Alex Rodriguez (1994 RC) - ARod's SP RC has been a hot seller since the beginning of the season, when he began his HR onslaught. It peaked around 4/26, a few days after he hit his 14th HR. Since then, ARod has hit a small HR drought, and his SP RC has been slowly dropping in price. Below are some average selling prices so far this season:
  
• 3/10 to 4/1 - $56.33
• 4/2 to 4/26 - $83.68 (+48.5%)
  
• 4/27 to 4/30 - $74.68 (-10.8%)
  
• Vladimir Guerrero (1995) - Vlady has had a great start this season. He's batting .366 with 7 HR & 23 RBI. Surprisingly his Bowman's Best RC card went south on the market, despite his strong production. It averaged $51.70 in March, then dropped to $45.94 in April (-11.1%).
  
• Jake Peavy (2001) - Peavy has been an impressive pitcher from day one in the majors. Now that he's getting more consistent, his RC cards are starting to pick up the steam that they once had a few years ago. His Bowman Chrome Ref RC has been a strong seller, averaging around $52 in April. I saw one of his Topps Fusion Autos (the only RC year auto he has) sell for $67.44 about a week ago. Definitely a card worth investing in.
  
• David Wright (2001 & 2002) - Unfortunately Wright hasn't been able to pick up where he left off last season. Despite having a 14 game hitting streak, which began on game 1, he's hitting a disappointing .244, with 0 HR & 6 RBI. His RC card prices have been a reflection of his level of play. Below is a comparison of average selling prices from March to April:
• 01 UD Prospect Premieres XRC - $25.53 --> $21.77 (-14.7%)
• 02 Bowman Chrome Auto RC - $419 --> $357 (-14.8%)
  
• Ryan Howard (2001 & 2003) - Basically the same story as David Wright; a disappointing April, and falling RC prices to show for it. See March to April comps below:
• 01 UD Prospect Premieres XRC - $33.33 --> $29.33 (-12%)
• 03 Bowman Chrome Draft RC - $50.51 --> $40.66 (-19.5%)
• 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC - $580.83 --> $473.87 (-18.4%)
  
• Felix Pie (2003) - Pie made his long awaited MLB debut in April for the Cubs. He's only batting .233, but it seems like collectors are keeping in mind the upside potential of this 22 y.o. centerfielder, more than his current stats. His Bowman's Best Auto RC has averaged in the mid $80's, and his Bowman Heritage SOG Auto has been right around $30.
  
• Felix Hernandez (2004) - Felix was the hottest pitcher in the majors, with his back to back shutouts, then nearly fell off the radar when he went onto the 15-day DL. As of 4/28, his status showed that his elbow is recovering well, and that he was able to throw a 35-pitch bullpen session. Below is a chronological pricing average for his Bowman Chrome Auto & Bowman's Best Auto RCs.
• Mid March to 4/1 - BC $101.92, BB $51.25
• 4/2 to 4/10 (after 1st shutout) - BC $175.76 (+72.4%), BB $80.66 (+57.4%)
  
• 4/11 to 4/18 (after 2nd shutout) - BC $205.65 (+17%), BB $110.73 (+37.3%)
  
• 4/18 to 4/30 (after injury) - BC $156.42 (-24%), BB $76.70 (-30.7%)

Now might be a good time to pick up some of these guys' RC cards, while prices have temporarily cooled. A good price for ARod's SP RC would be in the $70's to $80's (Although the first one sold today on 5/1 that I saw went for $105.50; his SP RC has one of the widest selling price ranges of any cards that I track!). For Hernandez's Chrome & Bowman's Best Autos, $120's & $50's respectively. For Vlady's Bowman's Best RC, high $30's to low $40's. And for Howard's Chrome & Bowman's Best Auto, $30's & $300's respectively.

More to come!

Baron Davis & the Warriors

What an exciting game 4 last night, between the Mavs & Warriors! I was so impressed with Baron Davis' clutch performance. He hit a 40'+ 3-point buzzer beater to tie the game at the half. To close out the 3rd quarter he hits a three, teams up with Mickael Pietrus to block Jerry Stackhouse's jumper, then steals the inbound pass & takes it down court for the dunk, just before the buzzer (again to tie the game). It got kind of scary there in the last 15 seconds of the 4th when Dirk Nowitzki dropped in back to back threes, but when Pietrus stole the inbound pass with just a few seconds left, it was in the bag. This GS team probably isn't a true #8 seed. Their reg season record wasn't that hot largely due to injuries & line-up reshuffles. If they'd had this team healthy all season, they probably would've been a #6 or #7.


Baron Davis' top base RC, hands down, is his 99-00 SPx Auto #'d 500 ($80 BV). This is the 1st set to have autographed base RC cards ever for basketball. Another hot Auto RC year card is his 99-00 Skybox Autographics Century Marks Auto #'d 50 ($80 BV). Problem is that there are very few of either of these cards listed on auction, so if you find one, the bidding action might be quite fierce (especially now!).


I wrote about him before, and I still think that Pietrus is a hobby sleeper. In addition to his skill potential, his level of athleticism is also very high. He has the ability to score from anywhere, block shots & create turnovers. His RC's from 03-04 have been steals. I think that he might start to receive some hobby attention soon though, so don't wait too long to pick up his key RC's.

Player Focus: Vladimir Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero has quickly become the core of this LA Angels team. The Angels are 9-9 overall this season. With Guerrero they're 9-6; without 0-3. He's battting .400 (1st in MLB) with 5 HR (T4 in AL) and 16 RBI (T3 in AL). There's been so much attention on ARod & Bonds, with their countdowns to their respective milestones (& ARod's season HR count), that a lot of other high achieving players have fallen off of collectors' radars.
Guerrero, as long he stays healthy, will be a member of the 500 HR club within 5 years and 3000 hits club within 7. This .325 career BA slugger is a future HOF'er and only has TWO MLB RC's: 1995 Bowman ($40 BV) & Bowman's Best ($60 BV) (with a refractor parallel-$300 BV). He also has a red hot minor league card from 95 in his SP Top Prospects Auto ($250 BV). All of these cards can be had for under BV. Over the past month, his Bowman has been selling for an average price (incl s&h) of $22.94, and Bowman's Best for $45.96. I saw one of his SP T.P. Auto's sell for $174.49 earlier this month. If you look hard enough, you can probably still find his Bowman for under $20, and his Bowman's Best in the $30 something range. These are investments worth making!

NBA Playoffs - Potential Impact Players in the West

We've just seen an exciting wave of 1st round game 1's this weekend, and here are a few players that I think could make an impact for their respective teams' successes, which could possibly affect their RC demand.

• Linas Kleiza (DEN, 05-06 RC) - Kleiza showed potential throughout the year, and really stepped up his game toward the end of the season. He provides benefits at both ends of the court, with solid rebounding and a three-point threat. I like his SPA Limited Rookies #'d 100 ($25 BV) and Exquisite Coll Auto/Patch #'d 225 ($80 BV). You can still pick these up for low % of BV prices (if you can find them).
  
• Nene (DEN, 02-03 RC) - Nene has struggled with various challenges since his RC year, but he looks to be in top shape going into the playoffs. His scoring & rebounding are good complements to support the Melo-AI offense & Camby defense. In game 1, he posted 13 pts & 12 boards (8 offensive). His SPA Auto #'d 1500 ($15 BV) and SPX Auto/Jsy #'d 999 ($25 BV) are relative good buys.
• Baron Davis (GS, 99-00 RC) - The Warriors pulled off one of the greatest upsets in this series of game 1's, beating the top seeded Mavs. This was largely possible because of Baron Davis, who posted 33 pts, 14 rebounds & 8 assists. His RC's have been depressed for a long time, and now have a chance to rebound. His best RC is his SPx Auto #'d 500 ($80 BV). I also like his Skybox Autographics ($40 BV) and E-X E-xplosive Auto #'d 1-99/1999 ($50 BV). If you want an inexpensive auto from his RC year, take a look at his Ultra Fresh Ink (print run to 475) which books at $15.
• Mickael Pietrus (GS, 03-04 RC) - An x-factor for GS could be Pietrus. This young, dynamic player can shoot the three or take it strong to the hole. Look for him to provide the added support to Davis & Richardson in upcoming games. All of his RC's are bargains, most of the time listed as commons, so I would go after his best ones.
  
• Leandro Barbosa (Pho, 03-04 RC) - Barbosa has emerged as the best 6th man in the league. He's arguably the fastest player dribbling in the NBA, and he can score from anywhere. In game 1, he led the Suns' sluggish offense with 26 pts coming off the bench. His RC cards have been creeping up in value each month, but I think they definitely still have room to grow. His only base Auto RC's that show his full signature are his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999 ($30 BV) and Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1250 ($20 BV). All of his other base Auto RC's show either his "LB" or LB #10" signature.
• Luke Walton (LAL, 03-04 RC) - Kobe & Odom are two well-rounded veteran players that can do it all, but a third will be needed if the Lakers want to succeed in the postseason. Walton is the top candidate to be that third. He can score, rebound, dish and he has the BB IQ. Most of the other Lakers are niche players, providing 1 or 2 skills to compliment the stars. I like Walton's SPA Auto #'d 1250 ($25 BV), SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999 ($30 BV) and Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Auto (print run of 56) ($80 BV).
• Maurice Evans (LAL, 04-05) - Mo Evans is another player to watch. During the regular season there were several occasions where he was able to spark the Lakers offense. His RC's are commons, so I'm not sure what sets included him. On eBay, the selection is very sparse at best. Keep an eye out for some of his key RC's to come up on auction.
• Jason Terry (DAL, 99-00) - The Mavs suffered a great blow yesterday losing game 1 to GS. When Nowitzki & Howard are off their game, Terry has the potential to be the one to step pick up their shooting slack (He's a very decent 3-pt shooter - .438 this season). His best RC is SPx Auto ($20 BV).
• Rafer Alston (HOU, 99-00 RC) - Yao & T-Mac are great players, but they can't do it all themselves. I've been hoping that Shane Battier would step up to be their supporting star, but he's been a disappointment. Alston, the former NY streetball legend, on the other hand has picked up the slack. In game 1, he posted 9 pts, 11 boards, 8 assists & 2 steals. The only RCs that I found in the Beckett were E-X #'d 3499 ($2.50 BV), Fleer Mystique #'d 2999 ($2.50 BV), UD ($2 BV) and UD Bronze #'d 100 ($6 BV). There may be others not listed.
  
• Paul Millsap (UTA, 06-07) - This young F has shown us glimpses of what he's capable of during the regular season, especially when Boozer was injured. If he can come off the bench provide support in the paint on both sides of the court, it would really help out the Jazz's big three (Williams, Boozer & Okur). His RC's have been on the rise. He doesn't have as many Auto's from his RC year as other players do, but the ones he does have are hot sellers. His Fleer Autographics ($15 BV) sold for an average $38.91 in March. The only other set that I've seen containing his autos is SP Sig.

Look for my East player list soon.

Breaking News: Felix Hernandez Hurt; RC Prices Drop!

As soon as the red hot Felix Hernandez was taken out of his 3rd start yesterday, the prices of his RC's for sale on auction plummeted. His Bowman Chrome Auto RC sold on 4/16 for $227. The two that sold on 4/18 (after he was taken out of the game) and 4/19 sold for $172.50 & $170.50 respectively. That's a 25% drop! Same went for his Bowman's Best Auto RC. On 4/18 (before the game), one sold for $122. Another one sold today for $76.01. A 38% drop!

Such extreme skepticism is very disturbing. It's not like they announced he's out for the season or anything (knock on wood)! He had tightness in his elbow, and would be reevaluated today. Let's hope there's nothing seriously wrong with Felix. I'd like to see him back in action, dazzling AL hitters again soon.

MLB Stat Milestones - Do They Make An Impact on RC Values?

It's very difficult to predict the impact a stat milestone will have on a player's RC values. You'd think it would push their cards up, but look at Rafael Palmeiro; he had 569 HR & 3020 Hits, yet his RC cards never budged (87 Donruss $5, 87 Topps Tiffany $15). Maybe it had something to do with the steroid accusations he faced at the end of his career? Will that mean that Barry Bonds & Sammy Sosa RC cards will also endure a similar stagnant status when they reach their milestones? Greg Maddux, who has 334 Wins & 3179 K's, hasn't received a boost in his RC cards either. His prices have been pretty flat for as long as I can remember.

For those of us still valuing what players achieve over the long haul, here's a list of players who are on the verge of reaching career milestones this season. Next to their name is their milestone, current stat (as of 4/17) and their magic number.

• Barry Bonds (756 HR) - 737 HR --> 19
  
• Sammy Sosa (600 HR) - 591 HR --> 9
  
• Ken Griffey Jr. (600 HR) - 563 HR --> 37
  
• Frank Thomas (500 HR) - 488 HR --> 12
• Jim Thome (500 HR) - 474 HR --> 26
• Alex Rodriguez (500 HR) - 471 HR --> 29
  
• Manny Ramirez (500 HR) - 470 HR --> 30
  
• Todd Helton (300 HR) - 287 HR --> 13
  
• Ivan Rodriguez (300 HR) - 280 HR --> 20
  
• Craig Biggio (3000 Hits) - 2944 Hits --> 56

Of these players, the ones that I like as investments are ARod & Manny Ramirez. In addition to reaching this great milestone, both players are still young, they have career BA over .300, and they have a good chance of reaching the 3000 hits mark.

On the broader market, what seems to drive prices up is a player's performance in the shorter term. David Ortiz has hit so many key HR's in the past couple of years, and his RC values have increased to extraordinary heights, even though he probably won't reach 500 HRs in his career. I guess its just all about personal collecting preference.

Mid April MLB Outlook

We're now into our 3rd week of the season, and there are some early standouts that have been attracting attention in the hobby. To name a few, there's Alex Rodriguez, who began the season hitting 6 HR's in his first 7 games. Grady Sizemore, in his first 3 games of the season, had 3 HR's (rare for a lead off hitter), and went 6 for 14 (.429 BA). Felix Hernandez, who's the hottest of them all, has gone 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 18 K's through his first 17 IP.

ARod's 1994 SP RC was averaging $54.11 during the 2nd half of March leading up to the start of the season. Through the 1st half of April, it has jumped to $71.57, a +32.3% increase. That doesn't mean you still can't find deals out there though. Selling prices this month have ranged from $51 to $103.99. His SP Die-Cut RC averaged $64.94 in late March, and increased to $78.20 so far in April (a +32% change).


Grady Sizemore's hottest RC issue is his 2000 Bowman Draft Picks Autograph. So far in April, it's averaged $431.18; 172.5% of it's $250 BV! The selling price range has been $384.58 to $489.99.

Felix Hernandez's two hot Auto RC's are his 2004 Bowman Chrome & Bowman's Best. The Chrome averaged $141.69 in late March, then jumped to $175.76 (+24%) after his 1st shutout, and then to $205.65 (+17%) after his 2nd shutout. Expect to pay in the $215-230 range for this card now. His Bowman's Best averaged $50.33 in late March, then jumped to $80.66 (+60%) after his 1st shutout, then to $107.71 (+33.5%) after his 2nd shutout. Expect to pay $110-125 for this card now. One sale of his Chrome X-Fractor Auto RC in late March went for $182. Another sold on 4/12 (one day after his 2nd shutout) for $422.99 (+132%)!

A few other pitchers to keep an eye on are Jake Peavy (2-0, 0.90 ERA, 12 K's in 20 IP), C.C. Sabathia (3-0, 2.14 ERA, 19 K's in 21 IP), and Ian Snell (1-1, 1.80 ERA, 20 K's in 20 IP). These players are still young, and have a chance to reach various career milestones if they stay healthy & consistent.

A few other hitters to watch are Vladimir Guerrero (.364 BA, 3 HR, 12 RBI), Ian Kinsler (.343, 5 HR, 10 RBI) and Elijah Dukes (.171, 2 HR, 2 RBI). I've included the 22 year old Dukes because of his 5-tool potential, and the bet that he's put his personal troubles behind him. We'll see if he can pick up his production as the season moves forward.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Possible Sleeper Team?

The Pirates have been a non-contender for as long as I can remember, with a very unexciting roster of players. Today, they finally have a strong group of young veterans, both in their line-up & rotation. Guys like Freddy Sanchez (last season's NL Batting Champ), Jason Bay (hit 30+ HR in each of his last two seasons), Adam LaRoche (had 32 HR for the Braves last season) and Xavier Nady bolster their offense, while starting pitchers Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm & Tom Gorzelanny have combined so far this season for a not-so-bad 2.93 ERA over 43 IP (through 4/10). Look for their RC cards to heat up on the marketplace. Already Ian Snell's RCs are starting to attract attention, after his 2.08 ERA & 14 K's in his first 13 IP this season.

I doubt they'll be winning the world series this year, but they could be fighting for a top 3 spot in the NL Central.

Still Neglected: Hakim Warrick

I've written about Hakim Warrick and the potential he has a few times now, but he still hasn't caught much hobby love, at least not for his mid-range Auto RC cards. His high end RC's have been selling for for decent $'s. His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 99 (Exchange card) has sold for around $105-130; well over its $80 BV. Also, in mid March, his SPA Auto/Logo Patch RC #'d 1/1 sold for $478.99.

So far in April (through 4/7), Warrick has averaged 16.5 ppg & 9.3 rpg in 34.3 mpg (vs his season averages of 12.7 ppg & 5.1 rpg in 26.2 mpg). He's been starting since 3/6 and his performance has been increasing along with his playing time. Unfortunately, he plays for a small market team that has the worst record in the league.

His SPA Auto RC #'d 1299 is still a steal. The month to date avg selling price is $9.78, down almost 23% from its March avg, and 29% from its January avg.

His Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 250 is also a bargain, averaging $12.20 MTD. That's down 14.4% from its March avg and a whopping 46.7% from its January avg!

Warrick still shows a lot of signs of inexperience on the court, but is just bursting with great athleticism & potential. He still remains one of my top "sleeper" picks for the NBA.

Two More Pitchers to Watch

Two other pitchers made strong season starts yesterday. Ian Snell (Pit, '04 RC), who was one of the pitchers that I've been watching from last season when he went 14-11 with a 4.74 ERA, pitched 6 innings and allowed 4 hits & 2 runs, striking out 11. Even though his ERA wasn't that good last year, he averaged over 8 K's per 9 IP, and showed very strong potential (Also, he did have a winning record for a team that went 67-95 last season). Snell has quite a few RC cards (incl many Auto RC's). They all book for pretty affordable prices still, with his Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 75 being one of his best ($40 BV).

The other pitcher is Jake Peavy (SD, '01 RC), who yesterday threw 6 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits & 2 walks, with 6 K's. Peavy came off two strong seasons in '04 (15-6, 2.27 ERA) & '05 (13-7, 2.88 ERA) before hitting a slump in '06 (11-14, 4.09 ERA). He's now looking more like the ace from before, and his key RC's should definitely get a long awaited boost. Even through his slump last season, he has remained a strong strike-out pitcher, averaging close to 9 K's per 9 IP throughout his 5 year pro career. Most of Peavy's RC's are under Topps' brands. His Bowman Chrome RC's are probably his most popular, while Topps Fusion put out his only RC year Auto ($80 BV).

A few others on my watch list from last season are Paul Maholm (Pit), Ricky Nolasco (FLA) & Ervin Santana (LAA). These guys remain quite affordable (unlike young pitchers Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano & Felix Hernandez), and I think that they have a lot of potential to grow in value.

Opening Day Ace! All Hail the King!

Today Felix Hernandez gave the M's one heck of an opening day gift: a three hit shutout through 8 innings, and a career-high 12 K's! This was the player that everyone was waiting for last season to emerge.

During the 2nd half of last month (Mar), sales were quite brisk for this two key Auto RC's from 2004: Bowman Chrome & Bowman's Best. His Bowman Chrome averaged $101.92 ($125 BV), and Bowman's Best $51.25 ($60 BV).

Today, while the game was going on, one of his Bowman's Best RCs sold for $71.33! I'm guessing that this is just a preview of the rejuvenated hype that this guy's cards are going to experience, at least in the near term. I'm definitely kicking myself for not picking one of these up a month ago. On 3/19, a Bowman's Best RC sold for $36, almost half of today's sale.

Maybe you can still find a deal on an auction ending late at night or early in the morning, but don't bet on it! Collectors will surely be scooping these up whenever & wherever they're available.

Basketball Market Watch - March

To see what's driving RC prices up or down, I'm comparing March vs February player performance & team performance (monthly record), and then showing how some of their key RCs have performed as a result.

• Phoenix Suns - Feb 8-5, Mar 10-4
• Steve Nash - Feb 15.8 ppg & 11.2 apg --> Mar 18.4 ppg & 10.2 apg
• Topps Chrome RC - Feb $28.94 --> Mar $32.79 = +13.3%

• The Suns & Nash improved in Mar; so did his key RC sales
  

• Leandro Barbosa - Feb 19.3 ppg --> Mar 20.6 ppg
• Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1250 - Feb $15.50 --> Mar $15.63 = +0.9%
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999 - Feb $23.80 --> Mar $23.82 = +0.1%

• Suns & Barbosa improved in Mar; his key RC's were pretty much flat
  

• Amare Stoudemire - Feb 28.5 ppg & 13.2 rpg --> Mar 19.6 ppg & 9.6 rpg
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999 - Feb $77.88 --> Mar $73.71 = -5.4%

• Suns improved, Stoudemire didn't; his key RC sales reflected his personal performance drop
  

• LA Lakers - Feb 5-7, Mar 5-9
• Kobe Bryant - Feb 29.7 ppg --> Mar 40.3 ppg
• Topps Chrome - Feb $154.15 --> Mar $168.49 = +9.3%
• E-X2000 - Feb $30.77 --> Mar $27.50 = -10.6%
• Fleer Lucky 13 - Feb $18.03 --> Mar $17.14 = -4.9%
• Finest - Feb $17.79 --> Mar $18.01 = +1.3%
• Topps Draft Picks - Feb $106.60 --> Mar $92.53 = -13.2%

• Lakers did worse, but Kobe was outstanding in Mar; RC sales were mixed
  

• Andrew Bynum - Feb 8.7 ppg & 7.1 rpg in 28.8 mpg --> Mar 5.4 ppg & 4.7 rpg in 20.2 mpg
• SPA Auto #'d 1299 - Feb $38.48 --> Mar $32.42 = -15.8%
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 - Feb $42.25 --> Mar $39.08 = -7.5%

• Lakers did worse & Bynum's production dropped as a result of less playing time (Kwame returned from injury); his RCs also dropped
  

• Utah Jazz - Feb 8-2, Mar 9-6
• Deron Williams - Feb 18 ppg & 11 apg --> Mar 15.7 ppg & 9.9 apg
• SPA Auto #'d 1299 - Feb $35.45 --> Mar $33.79 = -4.7%
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - Feb $50.58 --> Mar $47.23 = -6.6%

• Jazz did worse in Mar & so did Williams; his RC's refected this drop in performance
  

• Denver Nuggets - Feb 6-7, Mar 7-8
• Carmelo Anthony - Feb 28.5 ppg & 6.7 rpg --> Mar 24.9 ppg & 5.8 rpg
• Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1170 - Feb $79.29 --> Mar $62.02 = -21.8%
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - Feb $151.54 --> Mar $170.10 = +12.2%

• Nuggets were about the same in Mar & Melo dropped in performance; his key RC's were mixed
  

• Orlando Magic - Feb 4-9, Mar 6-8
• Dwight Howard - Feb 22.8 ppg & 12.5 rpg --> Mar 15.4 ppg & 11.9 rpg
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - Feb $143.17 --> Mar $123.38 = -13.8%

• Magic improved slightly in Mar, but Howard's stats dropped; his SPx RC also fell
  

• Washington Wizards - Feb 4-7, Mar 7-8
• Gilbert Arenas - Feb 26.5 ppg --> Mar 28.9 ppg (2nd best month this season)
• Ultimate Coll #'d 750 - Feb $27.70 --> Mar $25.13 = -9.3%
• SPA Auto #'d 1525 - Feb $112.88 --> Mar $113.80 = +0.8%
• UD Inspirations Auto #'d 1149 - Feb $33.24 --> Mar $33.06 = -0.5%

• Wizards improved in Mar & so did Arenas, but his RC's were either falling or flat
  

• Milwaukee Bucks - Feb 2-3 with Redd (1-9 without), Mar 4-9
• Michael Redd - Feb 24.8 ppg --> Mar 25.1 ppg
• E-X Auto #'d 1-500/1500 - Feb $29.23 --> Mar $33.11 = +13.3%
• Fleer Autographics Auto - Feb $11.21 --> Mar $11.71 = +4.4%

• Bucks improved in Mar & Redd was consistent as usual; his 2 key RC year autos increased as usual also
  

Emerging Star: LaMarcus Aldridge

21 y.o. LaMarcus Aldridge has really kicked up his game recently, taking advantage of the increased minutes he's been seeing. From the beginning of the season through Feb, he played in 48 games, averaging 7.2 ppg & 4.0 rpg in 19.5 mpg. In the Blazers' 10 games in March (through 3/22), he's been on fire averaging 15.3 ppg & 8.2 rpg in 30.8 mpg, more than doubling his output in points & rebounds, while only playing 10 minutes more per game.

His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 299 has been a hot seller on ebay, averaging $80.63 (incl s&h) so far this month. During the 1st week of March, after he scored 30 pts in 26 min on 3/1, his SPx RC sold for an average of $85.07. After the hype dropped off some, the average for the following week was at $74.71. This same trend was true for his SPx Auto/Jsy Spectrum RC #'d 25. One sold the 1st week of March for $216.50. Another one sold the following week for $138.04.

Keep an eye this guy, as he continues to improve. He could really excel within this current trend of "smaller" big men, like Dwight Howard & Amare Stoudemire, who would've normally been PF, but are now being utilized as centers.

Japanese Position Players

Hideo Nomo started the craze for players from Japan when he dazzled opposing batter for the Dodgers back in '05, winning NL ROY honors. Thereafter, more pitchers made their way to the MLB from Japan, but didn't have the same success that Nomo did. People thought that Japanese players could only compete in the majors as pitchers... because they hadn't seen the likes of Ichiro yet. Ichiro made an even bigger splash in '01 than Nomo did 6 years earlier. He showed the world that he could compete both as a position playing fielder & hitter. Over his 6 year MLB career so far, he has posted a .331 BA and has averaged 229 hits & 40 SB per 162 game season. Not to mention breaking the single season hits record (262 hits in '04) and winning the AL ROY & MVP in '01. UD had the lock on his only 2 base Auto RCs: SPx Auto/Jsy ($800) and Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250 ($1500); both extremely rare and coveted finds.

Four other promising position players from Japan have since joined Ichiro here in the states; So Taguchi (STL, OF), Hideki Matsui (NYY, OF), Tadahito Iguchi (ChiWS, 2B) & Kenji Johjima (Sea, C).

Taguchi has played a less active role than the other 3 players, but has been a key contributor for the Cards in their quest for the WS. He's shown decent longevity compared to his '02 RC classmate Kaz Ishii, and continues to make the St. Louis roster. His best base RCs from '02 are his Bowman Chrome Auto ($50) and SPx Auto ($25)*Best Buy.

Matsui, who is by far the most popular hitter in Japan, has found his place in the middle of the Yankees' lineup, providing a threat at the plate beyond their ARod, Jeter, Giambi & Damon arsenal. Over his 4 year MLB career so far, he's averaged .291 BA, 23 HR & 108 RBI per 162 game season. His best base RCs from '03 are his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 864 ($400), Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250 ($350) and SP Authentic Auto #'d 500 ($300). *All Very Expensive! Like with Ichiro, UD had a lock on all of his Auto RCs also.

Iguchi has provided stable support for the White Sox in his 2 years in Chicago, helping them win the WS in his RC year in '05 (the first Japan-born player to win a WS). He's averaged a decent .280 BA, 20 HR & 15 SB per 162 game season so far. His best base RCs from '05 are SP Authentic Auto #'d 185 ($80), Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 99 ($120), UD Update Auto #'d 75 ($80) and Ultimate Signature Auto #'d 125 ($60)*Best Buy. Again, another UD exclusive for Auto RCs.

Johjima, the first catcher from Japan, has only played one season so far and has done quite well. Playing along side Ichiro, he averaged .291 BA & hit 18 HR his RC year. His key base RCs from '06 are Bowman Auto ($100) Bowman Chrome Auto ($120) and Topps Co-Signers Auto #'d 200 ($100). Topps finally got an exclusive on one of these Japanese players (strange since he plays in Seattle with UD man Ichiro).

One other Japanese player is Kaz Matsui (Col, 2B). He's had a shakier career compared to the others thus far, playing for the Mets, then moving to the Rockies during last season. Due to injury, he's only played over 100 games in one of his three seasons in the majors ('04). He has a MLB career batting avg of .266, but finished last season hitting .345 in his 32 games with the Rockies.

Ichiro & Hideki Matsui Auto RC's are extremely expensive, but Taguchi & Iguchi can be found at very reasonable % of BV levels. Kaz Matsui's RC's are are the lowest priced, but also have the highest risk (of not increasing in value).

Disappointing April Basketball Beckett

I was very disappointed when I received my April Basketball Beckett in the mail this week. It reflected so little from the actual market movement. Beckett says that they track real auction sales in their BV pricing, but I feel like they miss the boat on a lot of the action. Michael Redd's RC year Auto's remained flat, even though in reality his E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto has been selling for well over book price (BV $25) for the past 3 months ($33.11 incl s&h for Mar, thru 3/20). His Fleer Autographics, which has booked for $12 forever has been selling at an average price of $12.85 in Mar so far, still hasn't moved either.

Gilbert Arenas' SP Authentic Auto RC is shown to be increasing in value, but actual sales show that it's dropped (Feb Avg - $112.88, Mar Avg so far - $106.00). So why did it jump to $130 in the April Beckett? The only 2 sales that I've seen in '07 that went for that much were on 1/15 for $139.89 (the same day he scored 51 pts & hit a buzzer beater 3 to win the game) and on 2/25 for $133.73. His average sales price from Jan thru today have been $114.06.

Paul Millsap's Fleer Autographics Auto debuted in the April Beckett at $15. How do you explain that when actual sales have averaged $38.91 so far this month?

This Beckett also reports that Dwight Howard's RC's have been red hot, when in actuality his SPx Auto/Jsy RC, which is one of his best, has dropped in average sales price from $143.17 in Feb to $124.44 in Mar thus far (13.1% drop).

If Beckett is going to spend the money to put out issues each month, I wish they would take the time to thoroughly research market data and reflect what buyers & sellers can expect cards to really go for. Collectors & investors are better off tracking actual sales on their own to gauge market timing for buying/selling.

More Baseball RC Year Confusion: Willy Aybar

One of the hottest young players early last season was Willy Aybar. He started off hot playing for the Dodgers, batting in the mid .300's, then dropped down to the mid .200's before being traded to the Braves. His two 2001 RC's were selling for way over BV, with his Auto RC selling for close to $100. He ONLY has TWO RC cards: 2001 Bowman's Best #'d 2999 & 2001 Bowman's Best Auto (pictured). Aybar was one of a handful of RC exclusives that Bowman's Best featured that year.

When I did a search today on ebay, cards from 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007 came up, all listed as his "RC" cards. I don't mean to keep harping about this subject, but it's just really irritating! I hope that collectors aren't buying these cards thinking that they're his RC's.

Anyway, Aybar is still a hot up-and-comer and now is a good time to pick up his RC cards (if you can find them). You can probably buy the non-Auto RC for around $10 (incl s&h) and the Auto RC for $10-15. There are two of his Auto RC's currently on ebay with set prices of $28.70 & $32.00 (incl s&h). I'm holding on to my pair to see what he does this season.

Barbosa: The Next Star From the 03-04 Draft

The 03-04 draft class will go down as one of the best (if not THE best) in history, with Lebron, Melo, Wade, Bosh and Howard leading the way. The next emerging star from that class is clearly Leandro Barbosa. This 24 y.o. is listed as a PG, but scores like a SG. He's averaging 17.5 ppg so far this season (23.4 ppg so far in Mar), and has led the Suns to victory numerous times. Did you see him last night against the playoff-bound Rockets? He posted 32 points (12-18 FG, 5-6 3PT, 3-3 FT), 8 rebounds & 3 assists!

He has 7 base Auto RC's, of which only 2 have his full signature (not sure about Hoops Hot Prospects); Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy #'d 1250 and SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999. (*Please see my posting on 2/5/07 titled "Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa" to see all 3 of his sig variations).

His SPx RC has been steadily rising in sales price, going for an average of (all prices incl s&h) $17.65 in Jan, $23.80 in Feb & $27.63 in Mar (thru 3/14). It's BV went from common status to $25 since the beginning of the season. You can still find them for below BV once in a while, so get them now before they really start to jump in price. One just sold on 3/14 for $38!

Unlike his other Auto RC's, his BS's BV hasn't moved lately. At $20 it's a very good buy for a combo Auto/Jsy with relatively low numbering. It's average selling price on auction for the past month has been $14.43 (incl s&h), making it my choice for best value. From the ones that I've seen, his silver parallel #'d 249 doesn't have his full signature; it has his "LB#10" sig. The gold version #'d 99 also has an abbreviate signature.

This guy can shoot the 3, drive to the basket and is quicker than most defenders. Having him will help the Suns continue their division dominance in years to come.

Baseball's Back; I'm so Confused!

As we get into the second half of the basketball season, Spring Training is upon us again. Collectors are monitoring the play of prospects & young stars, buying up their early picks for who will have a break out season, continued success or break some records. The very unfortunate thing though is how RC's are defined in baseball now. It can be so confusing when you search for someone's RC cards. If their 1st RC cards came out in 2002, those of course will come up. Then their "(RC)" cards from 2006 will come up, when they made their MLB debut. And on top of that you have all of those sellers out to fool buyers by listing other year cards that they claim are RC's. For example, I did a search for "Francisco Liriano RC" recently, and cards from 2002, 2005 & 2006 came up. I think that it's such BS that this new rule came into play, and think it's even more BS that some sellers are trying to pass off non-RC or non-(RC) cards as players' real RC card. Basketball fortunately is a lot more clear cut. They don't have cards issued for college or development league players.

This new rule for baseball RC's has really turned me off to the 2006 & newer products. It'll probably take a little while before I actually start thinking about buying some of the newer products. What they should've done was only apply it to players who haven't had any RC cards in previous years, and get rid of the "(RC)" RC's. The card companies tried to make them more appealing by putting Autos on them & numbering them, but to me they just aren't those players' RC cards. Who knows, maybe I'm alone on this one, and other collectors just love those "(RC)" cards. Anyway, that's just my opinion.

Why aren't Michael Redd's RC BV's on the move?

Michael Redd, as I've written in earlier postings, has become one of the best scorers in the NBA. Since his RC year in 00-01, he has increased his scoring average every season. His only 2 RC year Autos have been hot sellers over the past few months. The E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto #'d 1-500/1500 had an average selling price (incl s&h) of:

• $32.77 (Jan), $29.23 (Feb) and $32.02 (so far in Mar)

It has sold for over the $25 BV consistently, but still the BV remains the same. His Fleer Autographics Auto had an average selling price (incl s&h) of:

• $11.03 (Jan), $11.21 (Feb) and $12.85 (so far in Mar)

This auto has been increasing every month and is now selling for over the $12 BV.

Hopefully Redd gets his hobby due and Beckett raises his values accordingly in the April issue. They raised some other players' values even though their cards weren't selling for over the BV at that time (i.e. all of Carlos Boozer's Auto RC's).

New Big Man in Boston

Al Jefferson has been outstanding for the sinking Celtics, posting double-doubles on a regular basis. He's been the one consistent bright spot for this team, especially during their extended losing streak while Paul Pierce was out. If you notice though, you don't see very many of his key RCs for sale on auction. My guess is that collectors/investors are sitting on them, waiting for them to move to even greater heights, which they probably will as long as Jefferson continues his strong play. He's averaging 14.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg & 1.5 bpg in 33 mpg for the season, and has posted double-doubles in 32 of the 52 games that he's played in thus far (he's only started 43 of those 52 games). In his last 10 games, he's averaged 19.9 ppg, 13.4 rpg & 1.6 bpg in 36.2 mpg as a starter.

If you can find them, I would try to pick up his Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy, Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Jsy & SPx Auto/Jsy base RCs, and his Topps Photo Shoot Auto & SP Game Used Rookie Exclusives Auto inserts. His SPx RC has been selling in the $40-45 (incl s&h) range recently. If you can find it for lower than that it would be a good buy.

Player Focus: David West & Desmond Mason

The NO/Okla Hornets have had a roller coaster ride of a season thus far. They've beaten teams like the Jazz, Lakers (twice), Wizards, Cavs, Pistons, Heat & Nuggets, but have also lost to teams that they should have beaten. They've had their share of injuries (Paul, West & Stojakovic have all been out for extended periods of time) too. At the end of the day, they may or may not make the playoffs this year, but I still think that they have the potential to be a 7th or 8th seed in the next couple of years.

Two key players in their starting lineup that seem to be often overlooked in the hobby are PF David West and GF Desmond Mason.

West, a two-year starter, has played all four of his NBA seasons with the Hornets. In 05-06, he averaged 17.1 ppg & 7.4 rpg. So far this season, he's averaging 17.0 ppg & 8.5 rpg. Most of his RCs are listed as commons right now, but look for that to change as he is back from injury, continues his strong play, and helps the Hornets make a run for the playoffs. Four RC cards from 03-04 that I like are his Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999, SP Authentic Auto #'d 1250 and Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1245.


Mason, in his 2nd year with the Hornets, has been quite the consistent player over his 7-year career, as both a reserve & starter. His career averages are 12.8 ppg & 4.6 rpg. This season he's averaging 14.3 ppg & 5.0 rpg. He's the only Hornet that has played & started in all 60 of their games this season, providing support through the other players' injuries. His key RC from 00-01 is SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 2500. These can be found at a steal! A lot of them that I've seen go unsold on auction, with starting bids in the $0.99 to $5.00 range. I would try to pick this one up for $3-5 (incl s&h) as an investment. Even if he never does catch hobby fire, it's small enough of a risk at that price level.



Both of these players can be counted on to contribute double digit scoring day in & day out (West has scored in double digits 84% of the games this season; Mason 80%), something a lot of teams' starting lineups are lacking.

Breaking News: The Topps Company

It was just announced today that The Topps Company has agreed to be acquired by Michael Eisner's The Tornante Company (who invests in media & entertainment companies) and Madison Dearborn Partners (a Chicago-based Private Equity company) for $385.4 million. The transaction is still subject to approval from Topps' stockholders, regulatory approval and other conditions, but is expected to be completed in the 3rd quarter of this year.

I don't know about Topps' other business segments, but considering their baseball & basketball releases over the past several years, this isn't very surprising. Other than their Bowman brand, I feel like their products have really stumbled. Hopefully under their new ownership they'll be able to infuse a little more innovation into their product lines, and eliminate those that are underperforming or cannibalizing their other brands. Another area that they should work on is signing better exclusives with players. For basketball, Upper Deck definitely has the better stable of top players (i.e. Jordan, Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard,...).

Good luck Topps! You've definitely got your work cut out for you.

Player to Watch: Tyson Chandler

Tyson Chandler was a hot commodity coming out of high school, and was taken 2nd in the 2001 draft. After 5 development years in Chicago, Chandler seems to have found a good fit in NO/Okla. Chandler had said that he wanted to become the top rebounder in the league, and that his scoring would hopefully develop later. I think that later may be coming sooner than everyone thought.

While his season-to-date averages are 8.6 ppg & 12.4 rpg, his Feb avgs were 13.2 ppg & 16.1 rpg, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down. In his first 2 games in Mar, he's avg 15 ppg & 16 rpg. He's finally becoming the double-double big man that everyone thought he would be. At only 24 years old, and with 6 years of experience under his belt, Chandler should have a bright future.

There aren't many Chandler auto RC's listed for sale on auction. He only has 4 base auto RC's from 01-02: SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525 ($40), SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 (250 x 3 versions) ($50), Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250 ($?) and UD Inspirations Auto w/ M Fizer #'d 1149 ($30). All of them can probably be found for much less than the listed BV's.

Player to Watch: Paul Millsap

One young player to watch is Paul Millsap, the RC forward on the Utah Jazz. When Carlos Boozer got injured back on 1/27 against NO/Okla, Millsap came in and posted 15 pts & 17 rebounds in 35 min off the bench. For those 10 games that Boozer was out of the starting lineup (incl the game that Boozer returned but only played 12 min), Millsap averaged 12.8 ppg & 8.9 rpg in 28.2 mpg (for the season his averages are 7.1 ppg & 5.0 rpg in 17.7 mpg). He was one of the reasons the Jazz were able to go 7-3 during those 10 games without their leading scorer/rebounder. This guy just turned 22 last month, and has a lot of upside potential. Since he's a RC and not all of this year's sets have been released yet, It's hard to tell which of his cards are going to be the hottest. I haven't seen any Auto base RCs so far (his SPx isn't auto'd), and only one Auto insert - Fleer Autographics (sold on 3/4 for $35.60, incl s&h).

Market Watch

Below are actual average selling prices for designated time periods (including S&H charges).

Andrew Bynum - 05-06 RC

• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 - $37.22 (Dec-06), $38.35 (Jan-07), $38.48 (Feb-07)
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 - $39.47 (Dec-06), $42.34 (Jan-07), $42.25 (Feb-07)
• SPx Spectrum Auto/Jsy #'d 25 - $293.00 (162.8% of $180 BV!) sold on 2/8/07
  

Deron Williams - 05-06 RC

• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 - $25.14 (Dec-06), $26.79 (Jan-07), $35.45 (Feb-07)
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $47.18 (Dec-06), $40.45 (Jan-07), $50.58 (Feb-07)
• SP Authentic Auto/Patch #'d 1-100/1299 - $132.71 (between 11/28/06 to 2/2/07)
  

Dwight Howard - 04-05 RC

• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $128.44 (Dec-06), $143.17 (Feb-07)
  

Carmelo Anthony - 03-04 RC

• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $168.04 (Jan-07), $151.54 (Feb-07)
  

Gilbert Arenas - 01-02 RC

• Ultimate Coll #'d 750 - $37.82 (Dec-06), $39.00 (Jan-07), $27.70 (Feb-07)
  
• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525 - $115.45 (Jan-07), $112.88 (Feb-07)
• UD Inspirations Auto #'d 1149 - $33.02 (Jan-07), $33.24 (Feb-07)
• SPx #'d 1999 - $27.73 (Jan-07), $24.72 (Feb-07)

Steve Nash - 96-97 RC

• Topps Chrome - $27.92 (Jan-07), $28.94 (Feb-07)
• Topps Chrome Ref - $270.87 (Feb-07)
  

Kobe Bryant - 96-97 RC

• Topps Chrome - $154.15 (Feb-07)
• E-X2000 - $30.77 (Feb-07)

While most of Gilbert Arenas' key RCs dropped in avg selling price in Feb and Andrew Bynum's stayed flat, Deron Williams' really caught fire. His SPA Auto RC jumped $8.66 (32%) and his SPx Auto/Jsy RC $10.13 (25%). Collector's finally got to see Williams in all his glory when Carlos Boozer went down with injury. If you watch the market closely, you can still pick up an occasional deal on Williams RCs. There were 3 separate sales of his SPA Auto RC for mid $20's range during the month of Feb ($10 below the avg).

Some other interesting RC year sales:

02-03 Finest Amare Stoudemire Gold Ref Auto #'d 25 - $571.16 (Feb-07)
96-97 Skybox Prem Autographics Steve Nash Blue Ink - $461.50 (Jan-07)
02-03 SPx Caron Butler Spectrum Auto/Jsy #'d 25 - $109 (Feb-07)