What About the Pistons?


I received a comment in response to saying that the Celtics are the best team in the East, saying that I forgot about the Pistons. First of all, thank you for reading, and for giving your feedback. I didn't forgot about Detroit, but I do think that their time in the spotlight is coming to a close. They've been a dominant force in the East for several years now, but I don't see them beating a team like Boston in a playoff series (they did lose to the Cavs in last season's Conference Finals 4-2). Unlike the Spurs (who have successfully endured over the years, and continue to do so), who have received some youth-infusion with Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili, the Pistons pretty much have the same aging line-up (not to say that Billups, Hamilton, Prince & Wallace aren't all excellent players, especially when playing together).


I do think that Detroit will be in the playoffs this year, and with the few number of decent teams in the East, they should move past the first round (unless they falter into the #7 or #8 spot). But I don't see them going to the Championships. I could very well be wrong (wouldn't be the first time!), but I'm predicting the Celtics to win the East.

Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa

Leandro Barbosa became of hot hobby commodity last season, as he went on to average 18.1 ppg in 32.7 mpg, coming off the bench for the Suns. So far this season, he hasn't lost a beat. Through his first 12 games, he's averaging 19.1 ppg in 33.7 mpg, again most of the time coming off the bench. Collectors have definitely taken notice . I saw one of his 03-04 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #'d 225 sell for $275 TAC last week, up from $200 just 2 weeks earlier. I also saw an 03-04 Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Auto sell for $111 last week, up from $94 just 1 week before.

My favorite Barbosa rookie is still his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999. It's one of his few base rookies that show his extended signature (opposed to just "LB" or "LB#10"), and you can find them for pretty affordable prices ($15-20 TAC). His SPx RC peaked out last season in the $30's range, with a couple selling for $40+. I think that this card has the potential to reach $50+ this season, if he keeps up the hard work.

The Mighty Celtics Trio

By adding two veteran stars, Kevin Garnett & Ray Allen, to a healthy Paul Pierce, the Celtics have seemingly transformed themselves into the team to beat in the East. While enroute to an 8-0 start this season, we witnessed KG's 95-96 Finest RC (his best base rookie) average $64.60 TAC through 11/17, with a high of $87.55 (on 11/17). Then came the team's first loss on 11/18. His Finest RC has dropped to an averge of around $51 since then. We need to keep in mind though, that for the past how many seasons, this card could be easily found for less than $20 TAC.

Ray Allen's best base rookie, his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC, has not experienced the same growth in value that KG's has. It's been a steady seller this season for around $10-15 TAC (before & after the Celtics' 11/18 loss). Since Allen has rookie-year autos (which KG doesn't), collectors seem to be going after those cards instead. Allen's two rookie-year autos are his 96-97 Skybox Autographics and Skybox Emerald Auto; both with BV of $60. Right before the season started, I saw one of his Emerald auto's sell for $24.04 TAC. I then saw one of his Autographics auto's sell for $116.49 on 11/13. That's quite an amazing jump (384%) for just a two-week period of time.Paul Pierce hasn't seen any significant changes in his rookie values (maybe because he wasn't a new addition to the team?). His 98-99 SP Authentic RC #'d 3500 has consistently sold in the mid $20's since the preseason. One card that should really garner some big bucks is his 98-99 Topps Auto (his only rookie-year auto), if you can find one. I've been keeping my eye out for one for the past couple of years, and haven't found any.

Barring any injuries, I believe that the Celtics will be able to overcome the reinvigorated red-hot Magic to finish the season #1 in the East. They may even have a chance to beat the Spurs or Suns, or whoever ends up winning the West. My hobby prediction is that KG will continue to benefit the most from this newly created super-team, with Allen & Pierce finally getting at least a little of the hobby attention that they've always deserved.

Player Focus: Grant Hill

Grant Hill had a solid pre-season with the Suns, and has been averaging 14.9 ppg & 4.8 rpg in 34.9 mpg through his first 12 games of the regular season. Not too bad considering all that he's been through in the last several years. I'm just glad to see him back, healthy & playing well. Looking at the market, it would seem that collectors either still feel that Hill isn't playing up to expectation, or that his time has past and he is no longer hobby-viable. His 94-95 Finest RC, once a hobby must-have card, is only averaging around $7.50 TAC. Normally I would say this card is a steal at that price, but there is quite a bit of risk if you're planning on buying it as an investment. If you're just a Hill fan, go ahead and buy away!

2007 Cy Young Winners

Earlier this month C.C. Sabathia stunned many with his AL Cy Young win over World Series Champ Josh Beckett. Today, Jake Peavy became the first unanimous NL winner since Randy Johnson did it in '02 (12th ever in NL history).

Sabathia's sole rookie-year Auto, his 99 Topps Traded Auto, was a pretty consistent seller throughout the season, ranging from $42-54 TAC. Before the season, you could find them for around $30-40. I've only seen one for sale so far this month, currently listed for $39.99 (+$2.50 S&H), ending on 11/21. Beckett's 99 Ultimate Victory RC experienced significant growth at the end of the season, jumping from around $20 to the $30's range in October, before settling into the $20-25 range this month. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 got a lot of hobby attention, jumping from $50 in September to the low $70's in October. Now they're selling for around $60 TAC.

Peavy's 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC stayed in the $40-50 range for most of the season (no surprise since he was probably the most consistent pitcher in the majors this year), before dipping to around $38 in October, after he blew the tie-breaking Wild Card game against the Rockies. His 01 Topps Fusion Auto (his only rookie-year Auto) fell from around $160 in September, down to $107 in October.

For all three of these pitchers, their key rookies have become pretty scarce since the season ended. I'm guessing that prices will soften in the next few months (unless demand spikes with the holidays - well, maybe not with gas prices hitting record highs!), and there will be deals to be had for those who are patient. All three of these pitchers were listed on my "Top Pitcher Investments" posts back in July, on my blog & Sportslizard, so of course I think that all 3 of them will be baffling batters for years to come.

Rookie Photo Shoot Autograph Cards

Up until this year, Topps had the lock on the "very unique" autographed cards from the Rookie Photo Shoot. Now Upper Deck has decided to get in into the game with their Rookie Debut Autographs, also signed at the Rookie Photo Shoot. They have print runs ranging from 77 to 130, and were inserted in packs of 07-08 Upper Deck, released last month.

Topps' inaugural set was introduced to the hobby in the 03-04 year, which turned out to be a prime choice of seasons with its stock of up-and-coming stars. The only downside was that it lacked the biggest rookie of that year, Lebron James (an Upper Deck auto exclusive). This set continued in 04-05 (again missing the top star of the class - Dwight Howard, another UD excl). In 05-06, they added some spark to the set with dual & triple Auto's (but it again missed the top star - Chris Paul, for the same reason). Last year, in 06-07, I would say that Topps had their biggest miss in the set's four-year history. It was missing Brandon Roy, Tyrus Thomas & LaMarcus Aldridge (I think all UD excl again).

I guess UD decided that it wasn't enough to just sign up the top stars from each class in exclusive Auto deals. They wanted to compete head-to-head and go after a piece of what little market share Topps still has in Basketball. I'm sure the Marketing team at UD did their homework and found that the Topps Rookie Photo Shoot set was still ranking pretty high in hobby stature, so naturally this would be their next course of action).

I'm not a collector of the Rookie Photo Shoot Autos, but I'm sure that those who are will jump all over this new offering from UD. There's a nice photo of the set in the November Beckett (pages 6-7). The big name missing is Greg Oden, who Topps signed an exclusive deal with, but since he's out for the season, I don't think it'll be that much of a turn-off for collectors (good try, but yet another miss for Topps!).

Topps had the right idea to insert these gems in their cheapest product line (which is probably heavily reliant on sales volume due to it's low pack price) in order to boost the brands' numbers. Kind of like how UD did with it's industry-pioneering game jerseys back in 97-98.

New & Improved Dodgers?

I heard on the news yesterday that there was a possibility that Andruw Jones and/or Johan Santana had a chance of going to the Dodgers. I'm a huge Jones fan, and I'd be thrilled to see him flourish under the leadership of Joe Torre & Don Mattingly. Maybe he'd be able to get back to hitting 40+ HR/season, like he did not too long ago. And anyone who's read my past postings about pitchers knows that I think Santana is one of the best 30 & under aces in the game. How many other 28-year-olds have 1381 K's in their career thus far? Not many (if any).

Both of these stars have spent their entire careers with the same team, and both have experienced frustrations recently, stemming from disappointing team results. A change in scenery might do them good. Los Angeles needs a spark or two (or three...), and these players could provide what they're lacking.

Jim, you asked not too long ago about Jones' 95 Bowman's Best RC card. I think that the Dodgers would provide a good platform for Jones' hobby status to relaunch from. LA is definitely going to get more attention next season, so it'll be a perfect chance for him to rejuvenate his game. His BB RC has averaged in the $19-22 range for the past several months. I think that it's potential value is probably in the $30-40 range, short term (over the next year).

Santana's top rookies from 00, Finest & Bowman's Best, have held pretty steady in recent, selling in the $65-70 & $55-60 TAC range respectively. Under the right circumstances, I think that these cards could potentially approach the $100 mark.

Jenkins Not Returning to Brewers; M's Stupid to Let Guillen Go?

I was sad to hear that the Brewers aren't bringing Geoff Jenkins back next season. After being drafted by Milwaukee in '95, and getting called up to the bigs in '98, he went on to hit 212 HR over his career there (2nd most in team history behind Robin Yount, who had 251). For a lot of years, it seemed like Jenkins was the only big hitter the Brewers had. Now that they have a very talented young line-up & are contenders for the NL Central division, they're dumping him. Early in the '07 season, I was thinking how great it must be for Jenkins to finally be surrounded by good hitters, after enduring a 636-820 team record in his 9 years leading up to this season (similar to the feeling I had for Todd Helton this year). I've always been somewhat of a fan of Jenkins, and followed his career hoping that he would gain some hobby recognition. Maybe he'll get his chance on a team that will appreciate his skills & experience.

This weekend I was reading that the Mariners decided to decline their '08 contract option for Jose Guillen. My first thought was WHY? Guillen hit .290 (4th on team) with 23 HR (2nd on team) & 99 RBI (2nd on team), helping the M's to an 88-74 record (best since '03). I remember him hitting well in clutch situations, sometimes winning games for them. It sounds like the team wants to give their up-and-coming star Adam Jones a shot in outfield next season, and with Ichiro & Raul Ibanez locked up, it could be kind of crowded with Guillen there too. Since Guillen can still exercise his option to stay, and it seems like he's really found a comfort zone in Seattle, maybe he'll still have a chance to remain. I think that another big reason for the team not exercising his option was his $9 million salary for '08.

Both of these guys' rookie cards from '96 are probably trading in the "commons" price range, and would be a risky buy, given their uncertain futures and mid-career ages. I personally would like to see both of them do well, and gain some sort of hobby interest. But, as we all know, every season brings in a new crop of young future stars, so the number of veteran players that can hold collectors' attention inevitably decreases to make room for them. So, unfortunately, I would say that their time in the hobby has probably passed, but I wish them luck all the same.

NBA Expectations

With the first week of the season almost complete, we've already seen the Lakers blow out the Suns by 21 in Phoenix, Gilbert Arenas blog about beating the Celtics on 11/2 (and then failing to do so), and of course the Kobe drama has been a constant underlying media irritation for who knows how long. Some of the things that I'm waiting to see this year ar

• Will Tyson Chandler finally up his scoring numbers to go along with his double-digit rebounding, so he can become the hobby star he was expected to be?
  
• Will Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson & cast be able to hold off the Jazz to stay atop the Northwest Division?


• Will Grant Hill turn out to be the missing piece of the puzzle that has kept the Suns from winning a Championship?

Carlos Boozer has started the season off strong, averaging 31 points & 15.5 rebounds in his first two games. Kind of reminicent of last season. Hopefully (unlike last season), he'll be able to maintain it & stay healthy throughout the year. Last season Boozer's cards experienced the roller coaster effect, jumping early on when he was playing well, then falling when he got hurt, and never fully rebounding after he came back.

Marcus Camby, one of the best defensive players in the league, is averaging 18 rebounds & 5.5 blocks in his first two games of the season. I think that most of the hobby attention will be centered around Melo & AI if Denver is successful this season. That should keep Camby's cards in the realm of affordability. I'm going to be keeping my eye out for deals on his 96-97 Skybox Autographics Auto & Emerald Auto, his only rookie-year autos.

Leandro Barbosa was one of my favorite up-and-comers last season. He'll probably still come off the bench this year (especially with the addition of Grant Hill), but I think it'll be good for him in the long run, when that day finally comes for him to start. Barbosa can drive to the hoop or shoot the three, and he's one of the fastest guys out there while dribbling the ball. He had 23 points last night against the Lakers (although a lot of them came when the game was pretty much over), shooting 10-for-14 FG & 3-for-5 from 3-PT. I like his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999. It's one of only a few base Auto rookies that showcase his extended signature (opposed to his "LB" or "LB#10" sig).

Post-Season King of the Mound: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett was nearly flawless through his four '07 post-season starts, pitching 30 innings and allowing only 4 ER & 2 BB with 35 K's and a 1.20 ERA. In this World Series, he actually pitched better (in ERA, K's/9IP & BB/9IP) than he did in '03, when he won the WS MVP with the Marlins. Despite his modest regular-season ERA of 3.27 (6th in AL) and 194 K's (7th in AL), he should still be a close-to-consensus AL Cy Young award winner.


His 99 Ultimate Victory RC, which could regularly be found for less than $10 early in the season, started rising in value as the year progressed, averaging around $19 TAC in July, $24 in August, and then back down to $19 in September (despite going 4-1 for the month). Then came October. It averaged $30 for the month, with one sale going for $43.50 TAC after Boston won the World Series. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 has also been a hot item. This card, which by the way is not his RC card, could be bought for around $40 at the end of the regular season. It averaged $68 in October, and I saw one sell for $162.50 on 10/28! I'm thinking that one was probably a glitch (either multiple bidders got carried away, or an inexperienced buyer didn't know the market), but still!



Now is not the time to buy Beckett's cards. They're probably either at or close to their peak, so if you didn't already buy, you missed the boat. You might want to look into picking up another Red Sox pitcher, who missed the post-season due to injury; Clay Buchholz. His 05 Bowman Chrome RC has dropped a lot since hitting a high of around $25-30 after his no-no. You could pick one up this month for $10-15 TAC.


*Interesting Boston Fact: When Babe Ruth was pitching for the Red Sox, he had a World Series record of 2-0, with a 0.87 ERA.

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 3

• 02 UD Propsect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto XRC - Fielder had a nearly-MVP-type season, hitting 50 HR (1st in NL) & 119 RBI (T3rd in NL); only his .288 batting avg kept it from being a complete MVP season. His "original" hot-card, the 02 UD PP Auto XRC, was topping the $200 TAC mark at the beginning of summer, but fell to $185 in July, $148 in August, and $147 in September (despite his end-of-the-season rally, hitting .333 with 11 HR & 22 RBI that month). Even though Fielder kept up his homerun hitting, he lost a lot of hobby attention to his teammate Ryan Braun. I've only seen one of these cards sell in October, and it went for an all-season low of $108.54, on 10/21. The 23-year-old slugger should have many great seasons ahead of him, and this card will remain a classic collectors item for fans & investors alike.




• 03 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard Auto RC - Howard hit 47 HR & 136 RBI this season. Unfortunately, he also broke the single-season record for strike-outs, with 199. His top base rookie, 03 BB Auto RC, reached as high as the $500's range at one point, but fell to $380-400 through the summer, and settled at $370 in September. After the Phillies were knocked out the NLDS, the market for this card got even worse. In October, it's averaging $274 TAC. This might be the lowest point that I've seen it at. Can you imagine a guy hitting 47 HR (105 HR over the last two seasons!), and his best RC card actually drops in price? Talk about finicky buyers! Given the past price swings that we've seen, I would say that now might be a good time buy, since the value could easily almost double again in the future.




• 04 Bowman Chrome Felix Hernandez Auto RC - King Felix almost had his "break-out" season this year, but it was disrupted by injury early on. He finished with a decent 14-7 record and 3.92 ERA, which unfortunately translated into disappointment, since expectation was a lot higher after he began the season 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and 18 K's in 17 IP. His 04 BC Auto RC was selling close to the $200's range in April, but quickly fell while he was on the DL, and continued it's downward spiral after he returned and struggled to regain his pre-injury form. By June, it was averaging around $114 TAC, in July $112, in August $102, and by September $86. After the M's failed to reach the post-season, hobby interest in Felix's top rookie dropped off even more, averaging $76 in October. At 21 years old, why would anyone lose faith in this guy? I'm thinking that these are just minor setbacks in his path to stardom. Most pitchers aren't even in the majors at this age (he already has 2-1/2 seasons under his belt!).

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 2

• 00 Bowman Grady Sizemore Auto - Sizemore is another player that had his ups & downs this season, and his 00 Bowman Auto followed suit. This card peaked early in the season, in the $500's range (remember when he started the season with 3 HR in his first 3 games?), then proceeded to fall every month thereafter. In June it averaged around $300, in July $270, in August $216, and then finally in September (his lowest HR & RBI month of the season) it hit rock bottom at $186. When the Indians entered the post-season, there was a renewed interest in Sizemore, and, despite his so-so hitting (.279 with 2 HR & 3 RBI), his Bowman Auto started to rise, averaging $276 in October before Cleveland was eliminated from the ALCS, and then dropped back down to $215 immediately after their exit.
• 01 Bowman Chrome Jake Peavy Ref RC - Peavy, the best pitcher in the NL (in my opinion), had a terrific season, leading the NL in W's, K's & ERA (the triple crown of pitching). Throughout the sesaon, his 01 BC Ref RC was a pretty consistent seller at the $40-50 TAC range, only entering the $50-60 range a couple of times. His blown start at the end of the season (unfortunately to decide who would go on to the post-season) dropped his hobby status quite a bit. In October, this card averaged $38; down from $46.80 in September. I would rate it a strong buy if you can pick one up in the $30-35 range (which is possible).
• 02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels RC - Hamels had a very good season, going 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA & 177 K's in 183-1/3 IP, to help the Phillies slip into the post-season. Hamels' 02 BCD RC peaked in June at around $27 TAC, then fell to $22 in July, $21 in August (he missed the 2nd half of Aug/1st half of Sep due to injury) and then down to $16 in September. He finished the regular season by tossing 8 shut-out innings against the Nationals (with 1 BB & 13 K's), and looked ready for the NLDS. Unfortunately, they faced the red-hot Rockies and became just 3 more notches in Colorado's amazing 21-1 run to the World Series. It looks like buyers have recognized the potential in Hamels, and are picking up his BCD RC while prices are low. In October, it's averaging $19.70 TAC.

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 1

Here's a look at some of the rookie cards that experienced big increases or decreases toward the end of the '07 regular season:

• 99 Topps Traded Alfonso Soriano Auto - Soriano had his ups & downs this season, but ended hot in September. For the month, he hit .320 with 14 HR (42% of his season total) & 27 RBI (39% of his season total). His 99 TT Auto was averaging around $103 TAC during that time, and I thought it would shoot up even higher when he continued to tear it up in the post-season. Boy was I wrong. As the Cubs got swept out of the NLDS by the D-Backs, Soriano hit a terrible .143 BA with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 extra base hits & 4 K's. As a result, that same rookie year auto fell to an average price of $71.50 TAC in October (the last sale I saw went for $66.99 on 10/14). This off-season is probably a good time to buy Soriano's key cards, as they will surely go back up when he gets back on track in '08.
• 99 Topps Traded Carlos Pena Auto - Carlos Pena was one of the only bright spots in the D-Rays' offense this season. He deservedly won the Comeback Player of the Year award, after hitting an amazing 46 HR & 121 RBI. His 99 TT Auto was on fire late in the season, selling in the $55-60 TAC range through mid September. Then, it suddenly dropped down to the $18-30 range, for no apparent reason. He finished the season strong, hitting .318 with 13 HR & 29 RBI for the month, so I'm not sure why his hobby interest fell through the floor like that. My guess is that either collectors are viewing him as a one-season wonder, or, at 29-year-of-age, they'd rather focus their buying on some of the younger up-and-comers. I'm thinking that if he can show the same level of play in '08, at least some of the buyers out there will help to re-elevate his hobby stature.
  
• 00 Bowman John Lackey Auto - Lackey had a great season, going 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA (both career bests). Then came the post-season. Before the ALDS series with the Red Sox started, I remember hearing the TV commentator say that Lackey has never had much luck against Boston. I was thinking, "Nah, he'll do just fine. He's coming off of a career-season, so he should be able to hold his own against Josh Beckett." I guess I had too much faith in the Angels. After getting beat in game 1, 4-0, Lackey's 00 Bowman Auto immediately dropped from averaging $36 TAC in September, down to the low $20's. I think that because there was that known roadblock for Lackey (the Red Sox), he really needed to show that he could beat them in order to justify his star status in the hobby. When he failed to do so, that was pretty much it for him (at least until next season). If you want to pick up some his cards, now might be a good time to buy. Personally, I'm not a Lackey collector.
  

More to come!

Rockies NL Champs; What about Todd Helton?

That's a good question Jim. I was wondering the same thing. I'm thinking that Todd Helton won't experience the growth in hobby interest that Matt Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki have. Helton's level of play has really dropped off over the past 3 seasons (in every offensive category), and his contributions this post-season haven't been significant enough to reignite his hobby spark.

I remember those those days when his 93 Topps Traded RC was a hot commodity. Now, you can pick one up for less than $10 TAC. Since this is his only rookie card, and he is still one of the best hitters over the last decade (.332 career BA), I would say that this card remains a good investment, and a very nice piece in any collection.

Helton still has a chance to join the younger stars in the spotlight, if he can have a strong performance in the World Series. Let's hope that he can do better than his .154, 0 HR & 1 RBI through the NLDS & NLCS thus far. His interview after game 4 was quite moving, and it would be nice to see the Rockies pull off an upset for their veteran star.

NLCS Aftermath

The day after the Rockies eliminated the D-Backs from the NLCS, a Micah Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC sold for $7.55 TAC (as expected), down from it's average of $11-17 before game 4. On the other side, a 99 Bowman Chrome Matt Holliday RC sold for $22.67 TAC, up from it's average of $12-18 before game 4. No surprise there either.

Looking forward, I think that both Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki will experience even more hobby growth, and if Colorado miraculously wins the World Series, you can expect to be paying around $30+ for the Holliday's BC RC, and $90+ for Tulowitzki's 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399.

Owings, D-Backs Fail to Avoid Sweep

On Monday night, Micah Owings had a good start, pitching 3 scoreless innings, and scoring off of Conor Jackson's RBI single to give the D-Backs a 1-0 lead. Then, in the bottom of the 4th, Owings gave up back-to-back walks, followed by a 2-run, 2-out double (it was almost like Rockies' manager Clint Hurdle had seen the future in order to have known to make that change at that time). Earlier that inning, Owings had the wind knocked out of him while diving for a ground ball, which could at least partially explain his downfall thereafter. After a fumbled grounder by Jackson, a Kaz Matsui RBI single and a 3-run Matt Holliday home run, Owings exited the game, down 6-1.

I guess Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC won't be jumping to new heights anytime soon. It'll be a good time to buy his cards during the off-season, as they'll probably fall to very affordable levels. Matt Holliday's rookies should definitely experience a boost, especially after winning the NLCS MVP award. His 99 Bowman Chrome RC has been selling in the $12-18 range over the past week, with the refractor version averaging around $50 TAC.

The Rockies' shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, has already been heating up in the hobby. His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399 is averaging $63.75 for the month, with the most recent sales in the $70-75 range. It was selling in the low $40's just a month ago.

Micah Owings Gets His Chance in Crucial NLCS Game

On Sunday, the Rockies beat the D-Backs 4-1, to take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS. Micah Owings, the 25-year-old Arizona rookie pitcher, will get his chance in game 4 to show if he can live up the hype from the regular season, and establish his place in the hobby. Owings has been known for his hitting as much as his pitching (*see related Owings posts on 9/28, 9/20, 9/6 & 8/24), and the D-Backs are probably hoping that he can help them win from both the mound & the plate, since they've been outscored 12-4 in the first 3 games of the series.

His 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC (only Auto RC) averaged around $15 TAC in August, then fell to $10 in September (after the hype died down), and is currently trading in the $11-17 range. I think that once people saw his name on the roster, anticipation started to rise for his upcoming post-season debut, which is what has fueled prices to rise over the past couple of weeks. If he can help the D-Backs move on to game 5, his cards should experience an immediate jump again. His 05 Topps Chrome Update Ref Auto #'d 500 has been a consistent seller from August through now, for around $20 TAC. This card will also experience a nice jump in value, should his performance meet it's high expectations.

We'll see how everything shakes out on Monday night when Owings squares off against the Rockies' rookie pitcher, Franklin Morales. I'm not a fan of either team, but I'd prefer to see Arizona win this one, to avoid yet another sweep this post-season.

Oh, and if he can't get it done, then I guess you'll be able to pick up his TCU Auto RC for less than $10, and hope that it'll rise in '08 when he starts pitching again!

Player Focus: Stephen Drew

Stephen Drew, the younger brother of J.D. Drew, had a pretty unimpressive first full regular season in '07, hitting just .238 with 12 HR, 60 RBI & a .313 OBP. Then came the post-season. In the D-Backs' NLDS sweep of the Cubs, Drew hit .500 (4 extra base hits) with 2 HR, 4 RBI & a .500 OBP. So far in the NLCS though, he hasn't been as fortunate. In his team's first two loses, he's only hitting .250, with 0 HR & 0 RBI.

Drew's 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC is still selling at a pretty affordable price level. I saw a refractor version #'d 500 sell this past week for $67.76 TAC; not bad when you consider that Ryan Braun's equivalent card from the same year selling for $180-200.

Drew is only 24 years old, and he's part of a young, up-and-coming D-Backs squad who should be competing for a World Series championship in the years to come. My hat comes off to Arizona for making it this far. All along I had expected the Padres to take the NL West.

LDS Bright Spots

• Grady Sizemore, the Indians' lead-off hitter, had his ups & downs during the regular season, ending up with a modest .277 BA, 24 HR, 78 RBI & 33 SB. In the ALDS against the Yankees, he was definitely more on the up-side. In those 4 games, he hit .375 with an OBP of .524, 1 HR & 1 RBI. Sizemore will be key to Cleveland's success in the ALCS vs. the Red Sox. His coveted 00 Bowman Auto was a hot commodity at the beginning of the season, but started to consistently fall thereafter. In June it averaged around $300 TAC, then fell to $270 in July, $216 in August and $186 in September. The hobby has already recognized his post-season improvement, with his most recent sale (that I've seen) going for $360 on 10/7. There's another auction ending on 10/16, which should give us a better indication of the direction this card is truly going in.
  
• Manny Ramirez had a great showing in the ALDS series victory over the Angels. He hit .375 with a .615 OBP, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 5 BB, proving to the baseball world that he's back at 100% and ready to help lead his team to another pennant. I've already said in the past that Ramirez is one of the most underrated players in the hobby. Well, he still is! His 92 Bowman RC is still selling at rock-bottom price levels. Over the summer, it averaged in the $12-15 TAC range, and then fell to an all-time low of $8.20 in September. Who would've thought that you could buy the best rookie card (which happens to be a part of a pretty expensive set) of a future 500 HR Club & HOF'er for such a cheap price? So far in October, prices seem to be going up slightly, with an average TAC of around $10. Ramirez's key rookie cards are still a steal at current price levels, and are sure to increase as he continues to punish opposing pitchers.
  

Response to Question: Hobby Potential of Andruw Jones

Thanks for the question Jim. I'm a huge Andruw Jones fan (been one since his call-up over a decade ago), and it's been disappointing to see his two rookie cards, 95 Bowman's Best & Bowman, plummet in value over the past year or so. Jones had a very sub-par '07 season, batting .222 (career avg .263), with 26 HR (career avg 34/162 game season) and 94 RBI (career avg 103/162 game season), and the Braves are probably thinking that his best years are now behind him. But, keep in mind that he will most likely be a 500 HR club member by the time he retires (he currently has 368), and he's only 30 years old. I think that whatever team he ends up with will be able to benefit from Jones' batting skills for at least 5 more good years. He's been much healthier than a lot of other players, missing a total of only 52 games in the last 11 seasons (played in 97.1% of the regular season games).

Jones' Bowman's Best RC was averaging around $21.50 TAC throughout the summer, and then fell again to around $18.80 in September. So far in October, it's averaging about $19. His Bowman RC was averaging around $13-18 TAC throughout the summer, and fell to a dismal $11 average in September. So far in October, you can find them in the $11-13 range.

I do think that Jones' rookies have a chance to rebound, initially depending on what team he goes to (i.e. depending on the team's strength, his role within the team, etc.), and then once more during the '08 season (as long as his performance rebounds also).

The $ value of Jones' cards don't really matter to me, since I'll probably never sell the ones that I have, but I would like to see his hobby status raised back up to where he deserves to be.

Thanks again for the question!