Emerging Star: LaMarcus Aldridge

21 y.o. LaMarcus Aldridge has really kicked up his game recently, taking advantage of the increased minutes he's been seeing. From the beginning of the season through Feb, he played in 48 games, averaging 7.2 ppg & 4.0 rpg in 19.5 mpg. In the Blazers' 10 games in March (through 3/22), he's been on fire averaging 15.3 ppg & 8.2 rpg in 30.8 mpg, more than doubling his output in points & rebounds, while only playing 10 minutes more per game.

His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 299 has been a hot seller on ebay, averaging $80.63 (incl s&h) so far this month. During the 1st week of March, after he scored 30 pts in 26 min on 3/1, his SPx RC sold for an average of $85.07. After the hype dropped off some, the average for the following week was at $74.71. This same trend was true for his SPx Auto/Jsy Spectrum RC #'d 25. One sold the 1st week of March for $216.50. Another one sold the following week for $138.04.

Keep an eye this guy, as he continues to improve. He could really excel within this current trend of "smaller" big men, like Dwight Howard & Amare Stoudemire, who would've normally been PF, but are now being utilized as centers.

Japanese Position Players

Hideo Nomo started the craze for players from Japan when he dazzled opposing batter for the Dodgers back in '05, winning NL ROY honors. Thereafter, more pitchers made their way to the MLB from Japan, but didn't have the same success that Nomo did. People thought that Japanese players could only compete in the majors as pitchers... because they hadn't seen the likes of Ichiro yet. Ichiro made an even bigger splash in '01 than Nomo did 6 years earlier. He showed the world that he could compete both as a position playing fielder & hitter. Over his 6 year MLB career so far, he has posted a .331 BA and has averaged 229 hits & 40 SB per 162 game season. Not to mention breaking the single season hits record (262 hits in '04) and winning the AL ROY & MVP in '01. UD had the lock on his only 2 base Auto RCs: SPx Auto/Jsy ($800) and Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250 ($1500); both extremely rare and coveted finds.

Four other promising position players from Japan have since joined Ichiro here in the states; So Taguchi (STL, OF), Hideki Matsui (NYY, OF), Tadahito Iguchi (ChiWS, 2B) & Kenji Johjima (Sea, C).

Taguchi has played a less active role than the other 3 players, but has been a key contributor for the Cards in their quest for the WS. He's shown decent longevity compared to his '02 RC classmate Kaz Ishii, and continues to make the St. Louis roster. His best base RCs from '02 are his Bowman Chrome Auto ($50) and SPx Auto ($25)*Best Buy.

Matsui, who is by far the most popular hitter in Japan, has found his place in the middle of the Yankees' lineup, providing a threat at the plate beyond their ARod, Jeter, Giambi & Damon arsenal. Over his 4 year MLB career so far, he's averaged .291 BA, 23 HR & 108 RBI per 162 game season. His best base RCs from '03 are his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 864 ($400), Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250 ($350) and SP Authentic Auto #'d 500 ($300). *All Very Expensive! Like with Ichiro, UD had a lock on all of his Auto RCs also.

Iguchi has provided stable support for the White Sox in his 2 years in Chicago, helping them win the WS in his RC year in '05 (the first Japan-born player to win a WS). He's averaged a decent .280 BA, 20 HR & 15 SB per 162 game season so far. His best base RCs from '05 are SP Authentic Auto #'d 185 ($80), Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 99 ($120), UD Update Auto #'d 75 ($80) and Ultimate Signature Auto #'d 125 ($60)*Best Buy. Again, another UD exclusive for Auto RCs.

Johjima, the first catcher from Japan, has only played one season so far and has done quite well. Playing along side Ichiro, he averaged .291 BA & hit 18 HR his RC year. His key base RCs from '06 are Bowman Auto ($100) Bowman Chrome Auto ($120) and Topps Co-Signers Auto #'d 200 ($100). Topps finally got an exclusive on one of these Japanese players (strange since he plays in Seattle with UD man Ichiro).

One other Japanese player is Kaz Matsui (Col, 2B). He's had a shakier career compared to the others thus far, playing for the Mets, then moving to the Rockies during last season. Due to injury, he's only played over 100 games in one of his three seasons in the majors ('04). He has a MLB career batting avg of .266, but finished last season hitting .345 in his 32 games with the Rockies.

Ichiro & Hideki Matsui Auto RC's are extremely expensive, but Taguchi & Iguchi can be found at very reasonable % of BV levels. Kaz Matsui's RC's are are the lowest priced, but also have the highest risk (of not increasing in value).

Disappointing April Basketball Beckett

I was very disappointed when I received my April Basketball Beckett in the mail this week. It reflected so little from the actual market movement. Beckett says that they track real auction sales in their BV pricing, but I feel like they miss the boat on a lot of the action. Michael Redd's RC year Auto's remained flat, even though in reality his E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto has been selling for well over book price (BV $25) for the past 3 months ($33.11 incl s&h for Mar, thru 3/20). His Fleer Autographics, which has booked for $12 forever has been selling at an average price of $12.85 in Mar so far, still hasn't moved either.

Gilbert Arenas' SP Authentic Auto RC is shown to be increasing in value, but actual sales show that it's dropped (Feb Avg - $112.88, Mar Avg so far - $106.00). So why did it jump to $130 in the April Beckett? The only 2 sales that I've seen in '07 that went for that much were on 1/15 for $139.89 (the same day he scored 51 pts & hit a buzzer beater 3 to win the game) and on 2/25 for $133.73. His average sales price from Jan thru today have been $114.06.

Paul Millsap's Fleer Autographics Auto debuted in the April Beckett at $15. How do you explain that when actual sales have averaged $38.91 so far this month?

This Beckett also reports that Dwight Howard's RC's have been red hot, when in actuality his SPx Auto/Jsy RC, which is one of his best, has dropped in average sales price from $143.17 in Feb to $124.44 in Mar thus far (13.1% drop).

If Beckett is going to spend the money to put out issues each month, I wish they would take the time to thoroughly research market data and reflect what buyers & sellers can expect cards to really go for. Collectors & investors are better off tracking actual sales on their own to gauge market timing for buying/selling.

More Baseball RC Year Confusion: Willy Aybar

One of the hottest young players early last season was Willy Aybar. He started off hot playing for the Dodgers, batting in the mid .300's, then dropped down to the mid .200's before being traded to the Braves. His two 2001 RC's were selling for way over BV, with his Auto RC selling for close to $100. He ONLY has TWO RC cards: 2001 Bowman's Best #'d 2999 & 2001 Bowman's Best Auto (pictured). Aybar was one of a handful of RC exclusives that Bowman's Best featured that year.

When I did a search today on ebay, cards from 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007 came up, all listed as his "RC" cards. I don't mean to keep harping about this subject, but it's just really irritating! I hope that collectors aren't buying these cards thinking that they're his RC's.

Anyway, Aybar is still a hot up-and-comer and now is a good time to pick up his RC cards (if you can find them). You can probably buy the non-Auto RC for around $10 (incl s&h) and the Auto RC for $10-15. There are two of his Auto RC's currently on ebay with set prices of $28.70 & $32.00 (incl s&h). I'm holding on to my pair to see what he does this season.

Barbosa: The Next Star From the 03-04 Draft

The 03-04 draft class will go down as one of the best (if not THE best) in history, with Lebron, Melo, Wade, Bosh and Howard leading the way. The next emerging star from that class is clearly Leandro Barbosa. This 24 y.o. is listed as a PG, but scores like a SG. He's averaging 17.5 ppg so far this season (23.4 ppg so far in Mar), and has led the Suns to victory numerous times. Did you see him last night against the playoff-bound Rockets? He posted 32 points (12-18 FG, 5-6 3PT, 3-3 FT), 8 rebounds & 3 assists!

He has 7 base Auto RC's, of which only 2 have his full signature (not sure about Hoops Hot Prospects); Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy #'d 1250 and SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999. (*Please see my posting on 2/5/07 titled "Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa" to see all 3 of his sig variations).

His SPx RC has been steadily rising in sales price, going for an average of (all prices incl s&h) $17.65 in Jan, $23.80 in Feb & $27.63 in Mar (thru 3/14). It's BV went from common status to $25 since the beginning of the season. You can still find them for below BV once in a while, so get them now before they really start to jump in price. One just sold on 3/14 for $38!

Unlike his other Auto RC's, his BS's BV hasn't moved lately. At $20 it's a very good buy for a combo Auto/Jsy with relatively low numbering. It's average selling price on auction for the past month has been $14.43 (incl s&h), making it my choice for best value. From the ones that I've seen, his silver parallel #'d 249 doesn't have his full signature; it has his "LB#10" sig. The gold version #'d 99 also has an abbreviate signature.

This guy can shoot the 3, drive to the basket and is quicker than most defenders. Having him will help the Suns continue their division dominance in years to come.

Baseball's Back; I'm so Confused!

As we get into the second half of the basketball season, Spring Training is upon us again. Collectors are monitoring the play of prospects & young stars, buying up their early picks for who will have a break out season, continued success or break some records. The very unfortunate thing though is how RC's are defined in baseball now. It can be so confusing when you search for someone's RC cards. If their 1st RC cards came out in 2002, those of course will come up. Then their "(RC)" cards from 2006 will come up, when they made their MLB debut. And on top of that you have all of those sellers out to fool buyers by listing other year cards that they claim are RC's. For example, I did a search for "Francisco Liriano RC" recently, and cards from 2002, 2005 & 2006 came up. I think that it's such BS that this new rule came into play, and think it's even more BS that some sellers are trying to pass off non-RC or non-(RC) cards as players' real RC card. Basketball fortunately is a lot more clear cut. They don't have cards issued for college or development league players.

This new rule for baseball RC's has really turned me off to the 2006 & newer products. It'll probably take a little while before I actually start thinking about buying some of the newer products. What they should've done was only apply it to players who haven't had any RC cards in previous years, and get rid of the "(RC)" RC's. The card companies tried to make them more appealing by putting Autos on them & numbering them, but to me they just aren't those players' RC cards. Who knows, maybe I'm alone on this one, and other collectors just love those "(RC)" cards. Anyway, that's just my opinion.

Why aren't Michael Redd's RC BV's on the move?

Michael Redd, as I've written in earlier postings, has become one of the best scorers in the NBA. Since his RC year in 00-01, he has increased his scoring average every season. His only 2 RC year Autos have been hot sellers over the past few months. The E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto #'d 1-500/1500 had an average selling price (incl s&h) of:

• $32.77 (Jan), $29.23 (Feb) and $32.02 (so far in Mar)

It has sold for over the $25 BV consistently, but still the BV remains the same. His Fleer Autographics Auto had an average selling price (incl s&h) of:

• $11.03 (Jan), $11.21 (Feb) and $12.85 (so far in Mar)

This auto has been increasing every month and is now selling for over the $12 BV.

Hopefully Redd gets his hobby due and Beckett raises his values accordingly in the April issue. They raised some other players' values even though their cards weren't selling for over the BV at that time (i.e. all of Carlos Boozer's Auto RC's).

New Big Man in Boston

Al Jefferson has been outstanding for the sinking Celtics, posting double-doubles on a regular basis. He's been the one consistent bright spot for this team, especially during their extended losing streak while Paul Pierce was out. If you notice though, you don't see very many of his key RCs for sale on auction. My guess is that collectors/investors are sitting on them, waiting for them to move to even greater heights, which they probably will as long as Jefferson continues his strong play. He's averaging 14.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg & 1.5 bpg in 33 mpg for the season, and has posted double-doubles in 32 of the 52 games that he's played in thus far (he's only started 43 of those 52 games). In his last 10 games, he's averaged 19.9 ppg, 13.4 rpg & 1.6 bpg in 36.2 mpg as a starter.

If you can find them, I would try to pick up his Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy, Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Jsy & SPx Auto/Jsy base RCs, and his Topps Photo Shoot Auto & SP Game Used Rookie Exclusives Auto inserts. His SPx RC has been selling in the $40-45 (incl s&h) range recently. If you can find it for lower than that it would be a good buy.

Player Focus: David West & Desmond Mason

The NO/Okla Hornets have had a roller coaster ride of a season thus far. They've beaten teams like the Jazz, Lakers (twice), Wizards, Cavs, Pistons, Heat & Nuggets, but have also lost to teams that they should have beaten. They've had their share of injuries (Paul, West & Stojakovic have all been out for extended periods of time) too. At the end of the day, they may or may not make the playoffs this year, but I still think that they have the potential to be a 7th or 8th seed in the next couple of years.

Two key players in their starting lineup that seem to be often overlooked in the hobby are PF David West and GF Desmond Mason.

West, a two-year starter, has played all four of his NBA seasons with the Hornets. In 05-06, he averaged 17.1 ppg & 7.4 rpg. So far this season, he's averaging 17.0 ppg & 8.5 rpg. Most of his RCs are listed as commons right now, but look for that to change as he is back from injury, continues his strong play, and helps the Hornets make a run for the playoffs. Four RC cards from 03-04 that I like are his Ultimate Coll Auto #'d 250, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999, SP Authentic Auto #'d 1250 and Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 1245.


Mason, in his 2nd year with the Hornets, has been quite the consistent player over his 7-year career, as both a reserve & starter. His career averages are 12.8 ppg & 4.6 rpg. This season he's averaging 14.3 ppg & 5.0 rpg. He's the only Hornet that has played & started in all 60 of their games this season, providing support through the other players' injuries. His key RC from 00-01 is SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 2500. These can be found at a steal! A lot of them that I've seen go unsold on auction, with starting bids in the $0.99 to $5.00 range. I would try to pick this one up for $3-5 (incl s&h) as an investment. Even if he never does catch hobby fire, it's small enough of a risk at that price level.



Both of these players can be counted on to contribute double digit scoring day in & day out (West has scored in double digits 84% of the games this season; Mason 80%), something a lot of teams' starting lineups are lacking.

Breaking News: The Topps Company

It was just announced today that The Topps Company has agreed to be acquired by Michael Eisner's The Tornante Company (who invests in media & entertainment companies) and Madison Dearborn Partners (a Chicago-based Private Equity company) for $385.4 million. The transaction is still subject to approval from Topps' stockholders, regulatory approval and other conditions, but is expected to be completed in the 3rd quarter of this year.

I don't know about Topps' other business segments, but considering their baseball & basketball releases over the past several years, this isn't very surprising. Other than their Bowman brand, I feel like their products have really stumbled. Hopefully under their new ownership they'll be able to infuse a little more innovation into their product lines, and eliminate those that are underperforming or cannibalizing their other brands. Another area that they should work on is signing better exclusives with players. For basketball, Upper Deck definitely has the better stable of top players (i.e. Jordan, Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard,...).

Good luck Topps! You've definitely got your work cut out for you.

Player to Watch: Tyson Chandler

Tyson Chandler was a hot commodity coming out of high school, and was taken 2nd in the 2001 draft. After 5 development years in Chicago, Chandler seems to have found a good fit in NO/Okla. Chandler had said that he wanted to become the top rebounder in the league, and that his scoring would hopefully develop later. I think that later may be coming sooner than everyone thought.

While his season-to-date averages are 8.6 ppg & 12.4 rpg, his Feb avgs were 13.2 ppg & 16.1 rpg, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down. In his first 2 games in Mar, he's avg 15 ppg & 16 rpg. He's finally becoming the double-double big man that everyone thought he would be. At only 24 years old, and with 6 years of experience under his belt, Chandler should have a bright future.

There aren't many Chandler auto RC's listed for sale on auction. He only has 4 base auto RC's from 01-02: SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525 ($40), SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 (250 x 3 versions) ($50), Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250 ($?) and UD Inspirations Auto w/ M Fizer #'d 1149 ($30). All of them can probably be found for much less than the listed BV's.

Player to Watch: Paul Millsap

One young player to watch is Paul Millsap, the RC forward on the Utah Jazz. When Carlos Boozer got injured back on 1/27 against NO/Okla, Millsap came in and posted 15 pts & 17 rebounds in 35 min off the bench. For those 10 games that Boozer was out of the starting lineup (incl the game that Boozer returned but only played 12 min), Millsap averaged 12.8 ppg & 8.9 rpg in 28.2 mpg (for the season his averages are 7.1 ppg & 5.0 rpg in 17.7 mpg). He was one of the reasons the Jazz were able to go 7-3 during those 10 games without their leading scorer/rebounder. This guy just turned 22 last month, and has a lot of upside potential. Since he's a RC and not all of this year's sets have been released yet, It's hard to tell which of his cards are going to be the hottest. I haven't seen any Auto base RCs so far (his SPx isn't auto'd), and only one Auto insert - Fleer Autographics (sold on 3/4 for $35.60, incl s&h).

Market Watch

Below are actual average selling prices for designated time periods (including S&H charges).

Andrew Bynum - 05-06 RC

• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 - $37.22 (Dec-06), $38.35 (Jan-07), $38.48 (Feb-07)
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 - $39.47 (Dec-06), $42.34 (Jan-07), $42.25 (Feb-07)
• SPx Spectrum Auto/Jsy #'d 25 - $293.00 (162.8% of $180 BV!) sold on 2/8/07
  

Deron Williams - 05-06 RC

• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 - $25.14 (Dec-06), $26.79 (Jan-07), $35.45 (Feb-07)
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $47.18 (Dec-06), $40.45 (Jan-07), $50.58 (Feb-07)
• SP Authentic Auto/Patch #'d 1-100/1299 - $132.71 (between 11/28/06 to 2/2/07)
  

Dwight Howard - 04-05 RC

• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $128.44 (Dec-06), $143.17 (Feb-07)
  

Carmelo Anthony - 03-04 RC

• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - $168.04 (Jan-07), $151.54 (Feb-07)
  

Gilbert Arenas - 01-02 RC

• Ultimate Coll #'d 750 - $37.82 (Dec-06), $39.00 (Jan-07), $27.70 (Feb-07)
  
• SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525 - $115.45 (Jan-07), $112.88 (Feb-07)
• UD Inspirations Auto #'d 1149 - $33.02 (Jan-07), $33.24 (Feb-07)
• SPx #'d 1999 - $27.73 (Jan-07), $24.72 (Feb-07)

Steve Nash - 96-97 RC

• Topps Chrome - $27.92 (Jan-07), $28.94 (Feb-07)
• Topps Chrome Ref - $270.87 (Feb-07)
  

Kobe Bryant - 96-97 RC

• Topps Chrome - $154.15 (Feb-07)
• E-X2000 - $30.77 (Feb-07)

While most of Gilbert Arenas' key RCs dropped in avg selling price in Feb and Andrew Bynum's stayed flat, Deron Williams' really caught fire. His SPA Auto RC jumped $8.66 (32%) and his SPx Auto/Jsy RC $10.13 (25%). Collector's finally got to see Williams in all his glory when Carlos Boozer went down with injury. If you watch the market closely, you can still pick up an occasional deal on Williams RCs. There were 3 separate sales of his SPA Auto RC for mid $20's range during the month of Feb ($10 below the avg).

Some other interesting RC year sales:

02-03 Finest Amare Stoudemire Gold Ref Auto #'d 25 - $571.16 (Feb-07)
96-97 Skybox Prem Autographics Steve Nash Blue Ink - $461.50 (Jan-07)
02-03 SPx Caron Butler Spectrum Auto/Jsy #'d 25 - $109 (Feb-07)

RC Year Autos: Who Has the Fewest?

Now a days, card companies are putting out so many Auto cards in each player's RC year. Just a decade or so ago, in 96-97, the only set that had RC year autos was Skybox Premium, with their Autographics & Emerald Auto insert sets. Now almost any set worth buying has base, parallel and insert autos for most RCs. Below I've listed the players & their RC year autos who had some of the fewest issued, from 97-98 to 02-03 (also considering the value of the player - meaning that they would have to at least be of semi-star "potential" status to be listed). Also noted, autos #'d 1 of 1 are not included.

• 97-98 Tracy McGrady (1 insert, 0 base) - Skybox Prem Autographics C.M. - $1400
• 97-98 Brevin Knight (2 insert, 0 base) - Skybox Prem Autographics Reg/C.M. - $20/40
• 98-99 Paul Pierce (1 insert, 0 base) - Topps Autographs - $50
• 99-00 Devean George (0 insert, 1 base) - SPx Auto #'d 2500 - $12
• 00-01 Michael Redd (4 insert, 0 base) - Fleer Autographics Reg/Silver/Gold - $12/15/36 & E-X Rookie Memorabilia Auto #'d 500 - $25
• 01-02 Zach Randolph (3 insert, 1 base) - Topps Pristine Autos - $40, Topps Chrome Autos - $20, Topps Xpectations Auto - $20 and Topps High Topps #'d 850 - $25
• 01-02 Gilbert Arenas (too many inserts, 3 base) - SP Authentic #'d 1525 - $120, Topps High Topps #'d 850 - $75 and UD Inspirations w/Mo Pete #'d 1149 - $50
• 02-03 Ronald "Flip" Murray (1 insert, 1 base, 1 parallel) - Topps Rookie Autos - $80, Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy #'d 999 - $40, Bowman Sig Auto/Jsy Parallel #'d 99 - $80
• 02-03 Smush Parker (0 insert, 1 base) - Finest #'d 999 $50

Of these players listed, based on BV & player performance, I would say that Michael Redd & Paul Pierce's RC year autos are the best buys.

Redd's EX auto is quite scarce. I've only seen two on auction over the past couple of months, selling for an avg price of (incl s&h) $31 (124% of BV). Redd's Fleer autos are easier to find (at least the reg version), and more affordable, selling for an avg of $10.56 (70.4% of BV) over the past month or so.

I haven't seen any of Pierce's Topps Auto for sale. All of his non-auto RC year cards have been selling in the 15-20% of BV range. I think that this card though, being his ONLY RC year auto, will sell at a much higher %. Being a fan of Pierce, I'm keeping an eye out for this one.

I also have to say that Zach Randolph's Topps High Topps Auto RC is also special. Randolph is one of the most underrated players in the hobby, and this is his ONLY base auto RC. I haven't seen any of these for sale, ever! This is another card worth picking up.

Player Focus: Kobe Bryant

From the beginning of his career, Kobe Bryant has had the confidence & drive (and talent of course) to become the player he is today - the best in the NBA. His offense & defense have been top notch for a few years now, and he has finally become the complete package by adding the ability to elevate the game of his teammates. The Lakers' current roster provides the perfect situation for Kobe to develop this skill, with a solid #2 (Lamar Odom) and a group of young, up-and-coming talent to guide (Bynum, Turiaf, Cook, Walton, Farmar, Vujacic), by providing a great on-court example and "coaching". It was near impossible to do with the old Lakers line-up, with players like Shaq, Malone & Payton, who have been around for a lot longer and had their own way of doing things. Barring any major changes, I predict the Lakers to be in the Western Conf finals by 2009.

Kobe's top 5 base RCs from 96-97 are 1) Topps Chrome ($225), 2) E-X2000 ($60), 3) Finest ($40), 4) Bowman's Best ($25) and 5) SP ($20). I've been tracking recent actual sales of these cards and found that the Topps Chrome sold for an avg of $146.16 (65% of BV), E-X2000 $30.28 (50.5% of BV), Finest $16.48 (41.2% of BV), Bowman's Best $11.69 (46.7 % of BV) and SP $6.18 (30.9% of BV). This shows the typical trend of higher priced RCs selling for higher % of BVs than lower ones.

Kobe's top 5 parallel RCs are 1) Topps Chrome Ref ($1800), 2) Flair Legacy Coll #'d 150 ($800), 3) E-X2000 Credentials #'d 499 ($700), 4) Skybox Prem Rubies ($400) and 5) Finest Ref ($350). Some recent sales that I've seen are Flair Legacy Coll $432.38 (54.6% of BV), Finest Ref $164.90 - avg of two sales (47.1% of BV) and E-X2000 Credentials $609 (87% of BV). I've seen a couple of Topps Chrome Refs graded BGS 9.5 listed, but they didn't meet reserve.













My personal favorites are his E-X2000 base & parallel. I think that they are the most unique & attractive of the bunch, in addition to being quite rare & condition sensitive.

The Modern Day RC Card

Today, almost all of the RCs in the mid to high range products are either #'d, autographed, have a piece memorabilia (jersey, patch, hat, etc...) or have a combination of these elements. Just 10 years ago, in 96-97, we saw the advent of the 1st #'d & autographed RC year cards. Fleer came out with their E-X2000 Credentials #'d 499 & Flair Legacy Collection #'d 150, which were both parallel sets. Fleer also led the way for the RC year autographs, with their Skybox Autographics insert, which included first NBA autos for RCs like Ray Allen, Marcus Camby, Stephon Marbury & Steve Nash.

It wasn't until the 98-99 year that the first #'d base RCs came out, from Upper Deck's two premium brands: SPAuthentic #'d 3500 & SPx Finite #'d 2500. UD then continued their innovative leadership by introducing the hobby's first autographed base RC, with their SPx Auto RCs #'d 500 & 2500 in 99-00.

Topps, the market veteran, has been dragging its feet regarding these types of innovations. Their first #'d base RC was 99-00 Finest #'d 2000 (SERIES 2 ONLY). Their first base Auto RC was 01-02 Topps High Topps Auto #'d 850. This product could've been hot if Topps had hyped it a bit more, instead of how it turned out; a flash in the pants one-year product. It has Zach Randolph's only base auto RC, in addition to auto RCs of Joe Johnson & Gilbert Arenas (one of only 3 base sets that had an Arenas auto RC).

Fleer/Skybox, after their pioneering sets in 96-97, then followed up with a redundancy of crappy new sets like Fleer Metal, Focus, Authentix, Force, Marquee, Maximum, Platinum, Shoebox, etc... that were all in the low to low-mid end product group, providing collectors with very little content at low prices, and which also cannibalized each other. I would say that this was what led to the company's demise. UD then picked them up in 2005 (another instance where Topps missed the boat), which allowed them to continue Fleer's stronger products, that now include 86-87 Fleer Jordan buyback RCs (reg & auto'd versions) and Jordan Autographics.

Being a strong believer in the idea of competition, I really hope that Topps brings something exciting to the hobby very soon. Some of their recent successes in my mind were adding Autos to the Finest RCs in 02-03, introducing Bowman Signature in 02-03 and introducing Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Autos in 03-04. Some of their recent blunders are making too many parallel versions for Finest RCs from 04-05 to present, and not having Auto RCs in the regular Bowman set in 06-07. I wish Topps lots of luck in improving their Basketball offerings, and hope that they're not just sitting there thinking at least we're strong in Baseball!

Player Focus: Tracy McGrady

One player who's RCs should be on the move very soon is Tracy McGrady. T-Mac's RCs have been stagnant for years, with each season's new young crop of up-and-coming stars taking the spotlight. He had a slow start this season, and was out of play from 12/12 to 12/26, back just in time to take over when the Rockets' top scorer, rebounder, shot blocker & FT% shooter, Yao Ming, went out with injury. Houston's come back season looked in jeopardy when Yao got hurt, but T-Mac has really picked up the slack. Since his return to action, the team has gone 15-6, and he's averaged 29 ppg (versus 19 ppg before his injury).

His best base RCs from the 97-98 year are SP Authentic FW (BV $50-pictured above), Topps Chrome (BV $30) and SPx (BV $20).

His best parallel & insert RCs are Skybox Premium Rubies #'d 50 (BV $500), Skybox Premium Autographics CM Auto #'d 100 (BV $1400 - his only Auto RC), Ultra Platinum Medallion #'d 100 (BV $120), Flair Showcase Legacy Collection #'d 100 (BV $120) and Topps Chrome Ref (BV $250).

As long as he stays healthy and maintains this high level of play, I think that the Rockets will be in the playoffs and his RCs will finally see some movement.

Player Focus: Marcus Camby

In my opinion, Marcus Camby is the best defensive player in the league. His stats (and his RC values) just don't do him justice. He of course grabs boards & blocks shots, but he also causes turnovers and creates opportunities for his teammates (and scores a little too - averaging 12 ppg). One huge problem that he's had is staying away from injury. In his last 5 seasons, he's only averaged 50 games per season, meaning that his team(s) have only been able to benefit from his superb skills 61% of the time!

I remember being impressed with Camby's play back when he was at UMass, and I've been hoping for him to succeed in the NBA ever since. If he can stay healthy, he will provide the defense & support to go along with an already powerful offense, allowing the Nuggets to make a run at the Western Conf title game with the Suns.

Camby's best 96-97 RCs are: E-X2000 Credentials #'d 499 ($30) & Flair Showcase Legacy Collection #'d 150 ($40) - his only two serial #'d RC cards; Skybox Premium Autographics Black Ink Auto ($20), Blue Ink Auto ($40) and Emerald Auto ($40) - his only autographed RC year cards; and of course Topps Chrome Refractor ($80) - his most expensive RC card. One other RC cards that combines scarcity & low BV is his Ultra Platinum Medallion RC, which has less than 250 copies (not sure if cards are #'d or not).

Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa

Leandro Barbosa is possibly the best sixth man in the West (not yet the NBA because of the Bulls' Ben Gordon - and why is Gordon still coming off the bench?). He plays for the best (and one of the most exciting) team in the league, he backs up the best PG in the league, and he can play! Sounds like the makings of a future hobby success. Barbosa has shown his skills since before this season, but his RC cards have stayed in the "commons" price level up until recently.

Like Andrew Bynum, who has 3 sig variations ("AB #17", "Andrew Bynum" & "Andrew Bynum #17"), Barbosa also has more than one sig: "LB", "LB #10" and "Leandro Suns" (or so I think, since it's near impossible to read). Based on the theory that players' sigs get shorter or more abbreviated over time, his full sigs ("Leandro Suns") will only become rarer. Of the personally acquired auto'd items I've seen for sale, they've all been either the "LB" or "LB #10", which could be a sign that he's already abandoned the full name auto. Since there's no premium placed on his full sigs (for now), as a collector I would choose to buy them over his shorter variations. Those 03-04 sets that have his full name are SP Game Used Rookie Exclusives Auto #'d 100, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999 & Bowman Signature. I've found that some products have more than one variation. Some examples are SP Sig ("LB" & "LB #10") and Bowman Sig ("Leandro Suns" & "LB #10"). So make sure you look at the pic before bidding so you know what you're getting.






His higher end Auto RC's have been selling in the 85%+ of BV level. You can find his SPx RC for around $17-18 (incl s&h). Anything lower than that would be a good buy. This kid has a bright future ahead of him, and I'm definitely going to pick up some of his Auto RCs (full sig of course!).

Market Report

Here is an update of real market activity for some of the players that I've been watching, showing the avg price sold during the total watch period, the avg price by month, and the $ & % change from the previous month:

• Andrew Bynum 05-06 RC year
• SPA Auto #'d 1299 - Avg Price $37.82 (94.6% of Avg BV), from 11/24 to 2/3
• Dec-06 - Avg Price $37.22
• Jan-07 - Avg Price $38.35 (+$1.13, or 3%)
  
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 - Avg Price $40.61 (80.2% of Avg BV), from 12/2 to 2/2
• Dec-06 - Avg Price $39.47
• Jan-07 - Avg Price $42.34 (+$2.87, or 7.3%)
  

• Deron Williams 05-06 RC year
• SPA Auto #'d 1299 - Avg Price $28.43 (65.1% of Avg BV), from 11/29 to 2/3
• Dec-06 - Avg Price $25.14
• Jan-07 - Avg Price $26.79 (+$1.65, or 6.6%)
  
• SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 - Avg Price $43.71 (64.4% of Avg BV), from 11/28 to 2/2
• Dec-06 - Avg Price $47.18
• Jan-07 - Avg Price $40.45 (-$6.73, or 14.3%)

• Gilbert Arenas 01-02 RC year
• Ultimate Coll #'d 750 - Avg Price $38.76 (77.5% of Avg BV), from 12/11 to 1/29
• Dec-06 - Avg Price $37.82
• Jan-07 - Avg Price $39.00 (+$1.18, or 3.1%)

• SPA Auto #'d 1525 - Avg Price $115.33 (144.2% of Avg BV), month of Jan-07
  

Four of the hottest cards on auction have been Steve Nash's top RC cards from 96-97: Topps Chrome (Base & Ref) and Skybox Autographics Auto (Black & Blue Ink). Here is some recent data from actual sales:

• Topps Chrome - Avg Price $28.99 (96.6% of $30 BV)
• Topps Chrome Ref - Avg Price $277.31 (231.1% of $120 BV)
• Skybox Autographics Auto Blk Ink - Avg Price $360.57 (144.2% of $250 BV)
• Skybox Autographics Auto Blue Ink - Price $461.50 (92.3% of $500 BV) - only 1 sale

Nash's lower & middle end RCs have not enjoyed the same high % of BV sales. Many of them (i.e. Finest, SP, Bowman's Best, etc) have been selling for heavily discounted prices.