Break Open Another Box!

2009-02-20T22:36:00.000-08:00

Last Home Run Hero Standing

Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi (and of course, Barry Bonds)...all tied to performance-enhancing drugs. Vladimir Guerrero has been hampered with injuries and may not reach the 500 HR milestone. Looks like Ken Griffey Jr. may be the last of the old school big bats not tarnished by HOF-preventing elements, and not questionable regarding his ability to accomplish the milestone marks.

In this decade, Griffey has been overshadowed by the big names listed above, and has suffered significant slow-down in achievement due to heath issues. Now, as he makes his storied way back to Seattle, where he began his career, and he continues to add to his current 611 HR count, I would think that collectors would develop a renewed interest in his top rookie issues. You can still find his 89 UD RC for $20 or less TAC on ebay; a steal for an unmarred star like Griffey.

Griffey is #5 on the All-Time HR list, and will likely end his career at #4, behind only Ruth, Aaron and Bonds (*). Now, if we were to find out that he too juiced up during the pre-ban era, I guess we would have no choice but to put our hopes in some of these younger guys like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, and wait to see where they land in 10-15 years.

2009-01-02T15:47:00.000-08:00

Yankees Bulk Up Their Rotation

With the Yankees failing to make the World Series since '03, and not even making the post season in '08, they've decided to start bulking up their rotation this off season by acquiring C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett. Sabathia is coming off of a near-perfect 3-month run with the Brewers in '08, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 8.8 K's/9IP. Burnett posted career-highs in IP (221.1), W's (18), K's (231 - 9.4/9IP), and starts (34) with the Jays in '08.

Sabathia's 99 Topps Traded Auto remains his best rookie-year issue, and is currently selling on ebay for between $122-199 in fixed-price auctions. It sold for between $48 to $64 TAC during the '08 season, so if you want to pick one of these gems up, I would wait until someone posts one in a bidding auction to get it for a better price.

Burnett's best rookie-year card is also the 99 Topps Traded Auto. These aren't as easy to find (probably because of the lower demand), and should be available (when found) at lower price levels than Sabathia's. I'm guessing in the $25 to $35 TAC range.

These pitchers join a young Yankees rotation consisting of Phil Hughes, Chien-Ming Wang and others, and could potentially be a what NY needs to get back into the post season. Personally, I think that they will need more young bats to get them past the Red Sox & Rays in the AL East.

2008-10-19T23:53:00.000-07:00

Rays Going to Their First World Series

Thanks to those readers who wrote in while I was M.I.A. What an exciting weekend this was, watching the cinderella Rays finally take down the defending champ Red Sox. Tampa Bay has had several young players with impressive performances, but two that are still very hobby-affordable are Matt Garza & Willy Aybar.

Garza's rookie auto's have been fairly inexpensive all season, with his 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC selling in the $17-25 TAC range, and his 05 Topps Chrome Auto RC in the $12-20 range. After tonights dominant performance (7IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB & 9 K's), I would hope that his cards finally start to pick up some hobby steam.

I've been an Aybar fan since he was with the Dodgers organization. After playing for a couple of different teams, he seems to have finally found his groove in Tampa Bay. After a slow ALDS against the White Sox, he really stepped up his game in the ALCS, batting .421 with 2 HR & 6 RBI. He only has two MLB rookie cards: 01 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 and 01 Bowman's Best Auto, both of which I believe were a part of exclusive rookie subsets for that product. Both of these cards have been selling for less than $10 each for a long time, and still remain at that level on the open market. I pulled one of his BB Auto cards back in '01, and have been holding onto it ever since.

Both of these players are 25 years old this year (Garza will be 25 in November), and can potentially have long & prosperous careers ahead of them. With other young players like Scott Kazmir, B.J. Upton & Evan Longoria playing by their side, you can expect this Rays team to be in the post-season for years to come. Was anyone else impressed with the maturity and confidence that Longoria & David Price displayed through this high-stress series? These two 23-year-olds are definitely ones to watch for the future.

I'm very sad that my Dodgers got knocked out by Philly, but I have to admit that they did get further than I had thought they would. Hiroki Kuroda was a nice surprise, Manny Ramirez was great as expected, and Chad Billingsley was disappointing - my take of their performance in a nutshell.

Thanks for reading...

2008-10-03T19:30:00.000-07:00

Sorry everybody, I've been out of the country for the past few weeks, and haven't been able to keep up with what's been going on, and as a result, haven't written any new posts. I hope to have something up soon. Thanks for visiting my blog.

2008-08-30T16:44:00.000-07:00

Players Who's Values Were Hot in '07, and Not in '08

Last season, several players had cards that were hot hobby commodities. One of them was Dan Haren. In his final year with Oakland, he achieved career-bests in wins (15), ERA (3.07) & strike-outs (192). As a result, his 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC was selling in the $35-40 TAC range by mid season. He cooled after the break, but his BB RC still maintained a $20-30 market value. This season, Haren is on track to improve in wins & strike-outs, and repeat his low 3.00's ERA. Pretty darn good, especially considering that it's his first year with the D-Backs. And what is his BB RC doing? Plummeting with every month that passes by. In April it averaged $22.75, then fell to $22.25 in May, $20.61 in June, $17.17 in July, and now $15.77 in August. So Haren went to a play-off contender, improved his overall stats, and his values are dropping. Is something wrong with this picture?

Alfonso Soriano, despite missing 50 games so far this season, is batting .293 with 23 HR, 63 RBI & 17 SB (only 2 CS) in the lead-off spot for the NL-leading Cubs. He'll probably reach the 300 HR-300 SB milestone within the next couple of seasons (he's currently 264-246). All this, and his 99 Topps Traded Auto (his only rookie-year auto) is selling for around 38% less than it was at it's peak in '07. It's averaging $76.38 TAC this month, close to the lowest it's been in over a year. I consider Soriano to be the best established lead-off hitter in the game, who's cards should experience a rise in value, possibly during this year's post-season play.

The Tigers' Justin Verlander is giving up more runs & walks, and striking out fewer batters this season vs last, and his team is 11 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. What's the good news? Collectors have an opportunity to buy his key rookies cards at good prices! His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC is averaging in the $40-45 TAC range, down from it's $65-80 range in '07. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC is selling for $20-30, down from $35-45 in '07. Despite his high 4.43 ERA, he's still had 14 outings this season in which he's allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. It's those 9 other outings with 5+ earned that have really hurt him. Verlander was quite consistent in '07, and I believe that he will regain his old form going forward.

2008-08-22T23:13:00.000-07:00

One to Buy: Edinson Volquez

The Reds' Edinson Volquez has been one of the biggest pitcher success stories of the season. His 15-5 record is amazing, considering his team is 57-72, and his ERA of 2.73 ranks him 3rd in the NL. Despite all this, and his 8.9 K's/9IP, Volquez's cards have been falling in value over the past month. In June, his 05 Bowman Chrome Draft RC averaged around $9.20 TAC. In July it dropped to below $8.50, and in August it can be found for around $4.50. You can find his 05 BCD Ref #'d 500 & Xfractor #'d 250 in the mid to high $20's range.

During the April to June time period, Volquez was red hot, going 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA, putting him on the hobby map. For the month of July, he posted a 4.54 ERA (despite going 3-1), which explains his drop in value. So far in August, he seems to be getting back on track, posting a 2.89 ERA over 3 starts.

Volquez is one of a handful of 25-and-under pitchers that should regularly find a spot atop the statistical charts for years to come. Now appears to be a good time to buy, as the upside potential of his cards outweighs the downside.

2008-08-17T17:24:00.001-07:00

No Posts - Watching the Olympics

I don't normally get too into watching the Olympics, but I've been strangely finding myself watching it every night since the opening ceremonies. From beach volleyball, to gymnastics, to swimming, it's become like a daily routine. Misty May-Treanor & Kerri Walsh are so great to watch. Their 100+ game winning streak is amazing! They both have Auto cards in the 2007 Topps Allen & Ginters set, and you can bet that their values are on the rise. Did anyone have the foresight to secure the rights to a Michael Phelps Auto and/or memorabilia card? Actually, Donruss had a Fans of the Game Auto insert back in 04, inserted in their Leaf Rookies & Stars baseball packs. It's now selling in the $600-700 TAC range.

Anyway, I realize that I haven't posted anything since the beginning of the month, so I'm now working on getting something up soon. Possibly highlighting the MLB players that have dropped off the radar since last season, or players who are currently selling below their values. We'll see.

2008-08-02T21:36:00.000-07:00

Manny Finally Leaves Boston, Heads to L.A.

After all of his complaining, Manny Ramirez finally packed it up and moved to L.A. this past week. After his first two games with the Dodgers, he's hitting .500 with 1 HR & 2 RBI.

Ramirez has probably been the best individual hitter in the majors over the past 10 years, with his .316 BA and 13.44 AB/HR & 4.16 AB/RBI (Alex Rodriguez has averaged .304 with 13.14 AB/HR & 4.68 AB/RBI over that same period of time). Despite his awesome hitting and the fact that he's played for one of the top 3 high profile teams in the league, his card values have never really reached their full potential. Over the past year, his 92 Bowman RC has averaged between $8 to $16 TAC. In July, it averaged $11.79.

Manny is a future HOFer who probably has a few more good years left before we see any significant declines in performance. It's unfortunate that his values have remained almost unaffected by his two World Series Championships & MVP-type hitting. It's hard to say if he'll be a good investment going forward, but I would say that his Bowman rookie is a must-have for any true collector of modern day stars, especially at these very affordable price levels.

2008-07-25T20:56:00.000-07:00

Harden Moves to Top Team in NL, Can't Get a W

Rich Harden has been one of the best strikeout starting pitchers in the game in recent years...well, he has been during those rare times not spent on the DL. After playing in only 16 games through the entire '06 & '07 seasons, Harden had 13 solid starts for Oakland in '08, going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA, and averaging 10.93 K's/9IP. The A's then decided to leverage this streak of good health and trade Harden to the Cubs, getting away from the potential gamble that they've already endured (and lost) for the past few seasons.

Since moving Chicago, Harden has been better than ever for the NL-leading Cubs. In two starts, he has a 0.73 ERA, and he's averaging 14.60 K's/9Ip. Oh, and he's 0-1! In his first start against the Giants, he left the game in the 6th leading 7-0. His relievers then allowed 7 runs, pushing the game into extra innings, robbing him of the W. In his 2nd start against the D-Backs, he allowed just 1 run in 7 IP, but was outdueled by Randy Johnson, resulting in a 2-0 loss. This guy just can't catch a break!

Harden's 02 Bowman Chrome RC has been averaging $14.90 TAC this month. His BC Ref RC #'d 500 has been selling in the $29-34 range.

I think that Harden has the talent to be a perennial Cy Young contender, but unfortunately his time spent on the DL has really marred his hobby popularity. If he can stay healthy for consecutive seasons, collectors will probably start to snatch up his cards with a fury, but until then, I don't expect to see his values reaching much higher levels and sustaining.

2008-07-19T22:57:00.000-07:00

High-Priced Packs

I just received my new multi-sport Beckett today (I didn't request to be changed back to the old format because I figure that I don't look at the pricing anyway, so at least this way I can read the articles about all of the various sports) and was reading the "Previews" section about the new 2008 Upper Deck Ballpark Collection, which is ANOTHER $50+/pack product to hit the market. I can see having one, maybe two, brands that are priced that high, but why cannibalize your other brands? (this sounds very familiar - maybe I wrote about something similar a while back). Also, with all of the economic challenges that we're currently experiencing (gas prices, sub prime, food prices, stock market, etc...), does it really make sense to increase your number of high-end brands to spark product sales? Like most other industries, recession-like conditions typically result in consumers downgrading their spending habits to one (or two) levels lower. For example, those people who would usually be eating dinner at Mi Piace will now be satisfying their craving for Italian food at the fast-casual Olive Garden.

If I worked for Upper Deck, I would be trying to shift gears to accommodate the the economic climate (actually, this could've been done over a year ago when home values started to fall). Why do you think Hyundai recently scrapped their plans to enter the truck business? Because the writing was on the wall as the other OEM's truck sales started to struggle last year due to high gas prices (it helps to be a market follower in these instances). I must say that I've been impressed with a lot of the decisions that Upper Deck has made in the past, but this isn't one of them. I'm also not sure that their move to have one of their vendors control their production plant & material sourcing was the best option (unless they didn't have enough business to fill their capacity, resulting in too much downtime?). Anyway, I hope that a shift in brand strategies is coming soon, otherwise, the big two (UD & Topps) could see a drop in sales volume, and collectors could be left feeling empty with too few buying options to match up to their tighter budgets.

I'm sure that the card companies have done their due dilligence to determine where the sweet spot is between unit price, sales volume, etc., but I kind of miss the days (which were not that long ago) when the mid-level packs were selling for around $5-7, and the premium ones could be bought for around $20. Unfortunately, like many other consumer goods, prices usually don't go down as time goes on; they just go up.

2008-07-13T22:07:00.000-07:00

Ankiel Heating Up; Brief on Kinsler

The Cardinals' Rick Ankiel, the pitcher-turned-outfielder, has been having a hot July, batting .349 with 5 HR (20 overall) & 12 RBI (50 overall). For the year, he's averaging 1 homer for every 15.35 AB, which is more frequent than teammate Albert Pujols (1 every 15.89) & AL HR leader Grady Sizemore (1 every 15.74).

Ankiel's 99 Ultimate Victory RC started the season on fire averaging $37.04 in April. As his performance cooled, so did his values. His UV RC then dropped to an average of $18.53 in May, and $15.54 in June. I haven't seen any sell this month yet, but I expect them to be on the rise. His most popular autograph card, his 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500, is selling in the $40-50 TAC range so far in July. You can probably find his 99 SP Top Prospects Auto for around $20.

Has anyone been tracking Ian Kinsler? I've been watching him since July '07, and all I can say is WOW! He's batting .337 with 14 HR, 58 RBI & 23 SB, he's in the middle of a 25 game hit streak, and he's been selected to his first All-Star Game. Only downside? His Rangers are 7.5 games behind a pretty tough AL West-leading Angels team.

Expect to pay in the $15-25 TAC range for his 05 Bowman Chrome Ref RC.

2008-07-09T20:41:00.001-07:00

Collectors Finally Taking Notice of Nolasco

Florida starter Ricky Nolasco is finally starting to receive some hobby attention. He made his MLB debut back in '06, and showed some signs of his potential, but finished the season with a not-so-impressive 11-11 record & 4.82 ERA. After missing nearly the entire '07 season, Nolasco started '08 slowly, going 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in April. He then proceeded to improve every month since, going 4-1 with a 3.97 ERA in May, 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA in June, and 2-0 with 1.80 ERA through his first 2 starts in July. He's 10-4 with a 3.74 ERA overall.

Nolasco's 04 Bowman's Best Auto RC (his only base autographed rookie card) has been selling in the $2-5 TAC range for the past year or so, but has jumped this month to around $10 & rising.

'08 is looking to be Nolasco's breakout season, and the value of his key BB RC card should benefit in a big way. If he can maintain his current pace, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached the $20+ range before the end of the year.

2008-07-06T20:08:00.000-07:00

Billingsley - Only Bright Spot for Dodgers' Rotation

With the Dodgers' veteran starters in a slump, Chad Billingsley has been the only bright spot in their rotation. Brad Penny, who's been on the DL since 6/17, is 5-9 with a pathetic 5.88 ERA; a far cry from his 16-4 & 3.03 ERA in '07.

Billingsley is 8-7 with a 3.12 ERA, and is averaging 9.26 K's/9IP, with 4 outings in which he allowed 0 earned runs. The negative (besides his team's overall performance) is his 3.98 BB/9IP, which should improve with age & experience. His mediocre record can be attributed to the lack of offensive support provided by his team.

Billingsley's 03 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC is currently selling in the $30-35 TAC range, up from it's June average of $26.95. Expect to pay in the mid $40's range for his BCD Ref Auto, and the mid $60's range for his BCD Xfractor Auto. A nice, less expensive option is his 03 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC, which has been selling in the $20-25 range over the past few months.

At 23-years-of-age (he'll be 24 later this month), I think that he has the chance to become a very dominant pitcher in the next year or so. All of his cards are still trading below their 12-month highs, with deals to be found for those who are willing to look for them. I'm now kicking myself for selling my BCD Auto about a year-and-a-half ago for $25!

2008-06-25T22:25:00.000-07:00

Joba Gets First Win as Starter

After 4 no decisions in his first 4 MLB starts, Joba Chamberlain finally earned his first win as a starter on Wednesday against the Pirates, 10-0. In an impressive 6-2/3 IP, he allowed 6 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB & had 7 K's. Through these 5 starts, he's posted a 1.80 ERA in 25 IP, and averaged 4.68 BB/9IP and 9.36 K's/9IP.

Joba's 07 Bowman's Best Auto RC & Bowman Sterling Auto RC have been averaging in the $60's TAC range during the May-June period. His 07 Bowman Chrome Auto RC has averaged $126.50. We'll see if there are any significant jumps in value now that he's achieved this milestone first W (I'm guessing YES!). I'll do a follow-up post after I collect some data over the next couple of weeks.

With the Yankees' dilapidated rotation (with Phil Hughes, Carl Pavano, Chien-Ming Wang & Humberto Sanchez on the DL, Ian Kennedy struggling and Kei Igawa sent down to the minors), the team's been relying on 39-year-old Mike Mussina and 36-year-old Andy Pettitte to keep them afloat. Joba has the opportunity to really shine in this environment, and, in turn, elevate his hobby stature.

2008-06-25T21:43:00.000-07:00

Major Fall From Grace: Justin Upton

20-year-old phenom, Justin Upton, looked ready to have a breakout season at the beginning of the year, batting .327 with 5 HR & 15 RBI in April, for the MLB-leading D-Backs. Then came May. Through 5/5, his batting average was up to .348, but by the end of May, his average had dropped to .275. As of 6/25, his average stands at .240. June has been his worst month yet, going 6-for-53 at the plate (.113).

His 06 Bowman Chrome Auto RC averaged an amazing $196.74 TAC in April. That average dropped to $136.35 in May, and can now be found in the $120's range. His 06 Bowman Chrome Ref Auto #'d 500 dropped from $256.10 in April, down to $176.50 in May, and more recently has been selling for around $150-160 TAC. If you don't want to spend $100+ for his Auto rookie, a good alternative is his 06 Bowman Sterling Auto RC, which has been selling in the $55-65 TAC range this month.

Coincidentally, his team's record went south around the same time that his bat started to give out. They were 20-8 in April, and 20-31 in May-June (thru 6/25). Fortunately for Arizona, the rest of the NL West has played even worse than they have, allowing them to maintain their top spot.

I think that it's pretty clear that Upton is going to be a hot commodity for years to come. It'll just be a matter of when he can gain enough consistency at the plate to help this young D-backs team win. If he continues at this current pace, there should be some great buying opportunities to be found on auction.

2008-06-18T20:38:00.000-07:00

Best Lead-Off Hitters: 25 & Under

As a general rule, I typically like to buy into "new" players who are 25 years of age or younger (which would potentially give them a good number of years to reach various key career milestones). When I started looking into possible investments for lead-off hitters, 9 players fell into this age group. I then tried to narrow the field to players who have .300 BA + 30 HR-30 SB capabilities, and my list then dropped to just 4: Ian Kinsler (TEX), Jose Reyes (NYM), Hanley Ramirez (FLA) and Grady Sizemore (CLE).

Regarding Kinsler, see my 6/3 post on Sportslizard.
Reyes' 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC was hot a couple of years ago, but has since fallen in value, and could probably be found for a good price. Realistically, he probably wouldn't reach the 30 HR mark, but could hit 20, paired with 70-80 SB per season.
Ramirez is, in my opinion, the lead-off hitter that has the biggest potential. In '07, he had 29 HR-51 SB and batted .332. This year, despite a recent slowdown after a red-hot start, he's still on pace to reach 34-39, according to espn.com projections. Both his 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC & Bowman Chrome Auto RC are selling at very high prices, averaging $107.25 & $176.89 TAC respectively in May. This month, there are a lot fewer of his key rookies cards for sale on auction. I'm guessing that sellers are waiting for him to heat up again before listing them for sale.
Sizemore, who's had 20-20 performances in all 3 of his full MLB-seasons thus far, gained a lot of hobby popularity in '07, as he hit 4-5 HR & 11-17 RBI per month from April through August. During that time, his 00 Bowman Draft Picks Auto was selling in the $250-350 TAC range. He then proceeded to have a mediocre September & post-season, driving his BDP Auto value down to $180-240 range through the entire off-season. If Sizemore can get his BA back up (currently .267) to go along with his 30-30 projection, I wouldn't be surprised to see his BDP Auto go back up to the $300+ range.

From a hobby standpoint , I think that lead-off hitters are getting the most attention that they've ever received before. In the past, it seemed like the #3 & #4 hitters garnered the bulk of the $'s spent on offensive players' cards. It's about time that this this key line-up position received some of the spotlight.

2008-06-15T23:03:00.000-07:00

MLB Market Movements

Ryan Howard was in a slump and was overshadowed by teammate Chase Utley through April. His .168 BA, 5 HR, 12 RBI and 37 SO's for the month drove down his key rookie card values. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC went from a monthly average of $277.58 TAC in March to $221.76 in April. It then rebounded in May to $255.70, as he hit .238, 10 HR & 30 RBI that month, despite striking out 40 times. So far in June, he's been pretty stagnant, and his BB Auto RC has been dropping in value again, with an average of $196.12. Once Howard learns to reduce his strikeouts, we should see his BA increase and he should be able to regain his hobby-star status. When that day comes, expect his BB Auto RC to rise back up to the $300-400 range.

With Albert Pujols on the DL, opportunity should come-a-knocking for Rick Ankiel to step up and help the Cards maintain their NL Wild Card lead (or even compete with the Cubs for the NL Central). Ankiel's 99 Ultimate Victory RC was hot in April, averaging $37.04 TAC, as he hit .290 with 5 HR & 16 RBI for the month. In the next month-and-half, he saw fewer at-bats and only added 5 more HR & 14 more RBI, as his BA dropped to it's current .254. His UV RC has been selling in the $13-18 TAC range over the past week; a steal if he starts to heat up again. His most popular Auto, his 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500, has been selling in the $60's range over the past couple of months. I expect this card to also sell at reduced levels this month.

Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th career HR this month, but you wouldn't know it based on his rookie card values. His 89 Upper Deck RC averaged $31.11 in April and $26.89 in May. Since his historic swat on 6/9, this card has averaged $28.14. Griffey may have already reached his full hobby potential. Collectors probably shouldn't buy his rookies for investments (unless maybe his graded versions might hold more future value). I personally plan to hold on to my mint 9 specimen for my private collection.

2008-06-06T19:51:00.000-07:00

Player Focus: Adrian Gonzalez

Padres' first baseman Adrian Gonzalez was on the cusp of becoming a hobby star last season, as he hit a career-high 30 HR & 100 RBI. What held him back? The two main things, in my opinion, were his strikeouts (1 SO for every 4.6 AB) and his so-so batting average (.282 - which isn't that bad, so it probably didn't have too much of an impact). His rookie-year 00 Bowman Auto peaked at a monthly average of $54 last June, and then held steady in the $40-45 TAC range throughout the rest of the '07 season. This April, it started the '08 season in the high $30's, and then jumped to the mid-high $40's in May. So far in June, it's averaging right around $50.

Gonzalez is again averaging around 1 SO per 4.6 AB in '08 (other batting leaders have much higher AB/SO - Chase Utley is at 6.6), and is batting a slightly-better .294. The big improvement has been in his HR & RBI (he's projected to reach 44 HR & 141 RBI if he plays all 162 games). At 26-years-of-age, Gonzalez is still fairly young and could have a very decent 300-350 HR career. If he can raise up his BA to over .300 and actually start hitting 40+ HR/season (and strikeout less), I would expect his cards to elevate above their previous highs.

2008-06-01T19:51:00.001-07:00

Player Focus: Chase Utley

Chase Utley has been the hottest hitter in the majors thus far in ’08, batting .312 with an MLB-leading 20 HR & 50 RBI. For his career, he’s averaging 30 HR & 112 RBI per 162-game season. He's currently on pace to hit 56 HR & 140 RBI! With 5 HR in his last 7 games, I don't see this guy slowing down anytime soon.

Unfortunately, Ultey only has 2 base rookie cards, and neither of them is serial #'d, autographed or from a premium set. In May, his 01 Bowman Draft Picks RC averaged $21.46 TAC (one sold on 6/1 for $32.35), and his 01 Bowman Heritage RC averaged $10.81. Collectors are also flocking to his 01 Bowman Draft Picks Jersey card, which is selling in the $40-50 TAC range, and his 02 Bowman Autograph, which can be had for upward of $120.

Utley is a part of a big-hitting Phillies line-up, which includes Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard & Pat Burrell. They've teamed up to help Philidelphia claim the top spot in the NL East. This may be their year to win the NL (and his year for the MVP), and if they do, you can expect Utley's four cards listed above to experience big jumps in value.

2008-05-25T21:46:00.000-07:00

Around the MLB

The hobby had high expectations in '08 for last year's NL ROY, Ryan Braun, driving up the TAC of his benchmark 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC every month leading up the start of the season; $128.93 in Jan, $144.18 in Feb, $155.62 in Mar and $168 in Apr. Braun had a slow April, batting just .276 with 3 HR & 17 RBI in 105 AB, but has turned things around in May, hitting .298 with 10 HR & 19 RBI through 5/24. His BCD RC dropped off this month due to his mediocre April stats, averaging $143.04, and has yet to recover it's value. If you want to buy Braun's cards, don't wait too long because they'll probably start to jump again in the very near future. In '07 he hit 34 HR in a short 110-game season. According to espn.com, he's projected to hit 43 HR at his current pace.

Brandon Webb was a distant second to Jake Peavy in last year's NL Cy Young award race, but he started this season off as a clear favorite ahead of the rest of the pack. He put his perfect 9-0 record on the line on 5/21 against the Marlins, and despite pitching a decent game (7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB & 7 K's), picked up his first loss of the season. Webb's 03 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 250, arguably his best rookie card, is averaging an amazing $148.76 TAC in May (a Gold version #'d 25 sold for $419.99 on 5/13!). His Ultimate Coll rookie cards are pretty scare, and before this month, the last one that I saw sell was back in Oct-07, and it went for $57.19 (and that was when he just completed a 16-10, 3.01 ERA season!). If you didn't already pick up Webb's key cards, it may be too late. I'm guessing that most (if not all) of his potential value is already built into his current TAC's.

Interesting Note: Jon Lester's 06 Bowman Chrome Auto RC had been averaging in the $20-25 TAC range this month. On 5/19, the day that he tossed his no-no against the Royals, one sold for $87.52! The next one that I saw sell, on 5/25, went for $23.36 (the same price level as before his no-no). What an example of hype affecting the market!

2008-05-18T21:37:00.000-07:00

Andrew Bynum Not Returning, Will Have Surgery

Throughout most of the time that the Lakers' up-and-coming star center Andrew Bynum was out injured, his key rookie cards continued to rise in value. The hobby kept the belief alive that he would make his return to help the Lakers win the West, and eventually win the their first title since '02. It was recently announced that he wouldn't be rejoining the team this season, and today we found out that he will undergo arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday. The disappointment has been apparent in the market, with his cards finally taking their hits (with interest!).

His 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 peaked out at a monthly average TAC of $99.88 last month, and fell to $76.30 so far in May (with most recent sales at around $70). His 05-06 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 averaged $90.45 last month, and is at $68.13 MTD in May (with most recent sales around $55-60).

The article on espn.com said that an estimated timetable for his return would be made after his surgery. Prices should continue to fall, creating another round of buying opportunities. As long as Bynum comes back at full strength next season, he remains one of the best "big man" prospects in the league.

2008-05-04T20:55:00.000-07:00

Kobe Wins MVP

I keep hearing about how everyone doesn't like Kobe, and that he probably won't win the MVP award AGAIN, but guess what? He IS going to finally win it, and he definitely does deserve it. I was a little worried there for a while, thinking that Chris Paul might steal the award away from him, but Paul will have his time in the spotlight before we know it. Kobe is arguably the best & most refined all-around player in the league, and his Lakers are the (again arguably) best team out there, so this SHOULD be the year that he wins it. I agree with the idea that a player who has an outstanding individual season, but who's team doesn't do well, shouldn't win the MVP (kind of like when Alex Rodriguez won the AL MVP back in '03 with the Rangers who went 71-91). So, I say again, this is Kobe's year.

Collectors seem to be targeting Kobe's higher end cards, driving up the value for his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC from an average monthly TAC of $176.54 in April to $211.78 so far in May. His 96-97 Topps Draft Picks insert is selling in the $120-130 range this month, up from around $90 in April. His mid-valued rookies have fallen in price, with his 96-97 Finest RC selling for around $20-22 over the past week, slightly down from $23.90 in April, and his 96-97 E-X RC selling for around $20, down from around $30.

Personally, I'm hoping for a Lakers-Hornets Western Final, and Lakers-Celtics Championship. These match-ups would be great for the hobby, and awesome to watch! I think that all hobbyists (and fans of the game for that matter) are tired to seeing the Spurs and/or Pistons playing for the title. Those two teams' stars have minimal hobby impact, and quite frankly aren't very interesting to watch.

2008-05-03T20:46:00.000-07:00

MLB Stars Having a Horrible '08

Some of the stars who have really shined in the past are off to horrible starts in '08. This list would include guys like C.C. Sabathia (1-5 & 7.51 ERA in '08 - 3x All-Star & '07 Cy Young award winner), Justin Verlander (1-5 & 6.28 ERA in '08 - '06 AL ROY & 35-15 with 3.65 ERA over last 2 seasons), Vladimir Guerrero (.257, 3 HR & 11 RBI in '08 - career .323, 36 HR & 118 RBI per 162 game season) and Troy Tulowitzki (.152, 1 HR & 11 RBI in '08 before going on DL for 6 weeks - '07 NL ROY runner-up with .291, 24 HR & 99 RBI).

Sabathia had a great regular season in '07, with his 99 Topps Traded Auto peaking at around $54 in September. After winning the AL Cy Young, collectors expected him to continue his hot pitching in '08, driving his TT Auto up to the $63-65 level in the months leading up to opening day. I haven't seen any listed since (except for fixed-price auctions). After allowing 27 ER in his first 18 IP (4 starts), he had two good back-to-back outings in which he only allowed 1 ER in 14 IP with 19 K's. I thought that it was a sign that the ace was back, but then on Saturday he picked up his 5th loss, giving up 4 earned off of 10 hits to KC. I expect to see his TT Auto drop to the $35-45 TAC range soon, creating a potential buying opportunity.

Verlander seemed like the most consistent young pitcher in the majors over the past two seasons. The Tigers as a whole were off to a rough '08 start, losing their first 7 games of the season. They've since started to recover (now 14-17), and I expect that Verlander will do the same. You can't keep a talented pitcher like him down for long. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC peaked last season at an average of $81.30 TAC in July. Last month, it was selling in the $45-55 range. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC peaked in the high $40's range last June, and has since dropped to the $30's range in recent. I'd keep my eye out for some major buying opportunites, until Verlander starts to turn things around (which he definitely will).

Guerrero has been a major offensive force over the past decade, hitting 30+ HR 8 times & 100+ RBI 9 times, with a career 368 HR & 1191 RBI. His 95 Bowman's Best RC has had monthly averages of around $30-45 over the past year, most recently averaging $33.86 TAC in April. They can be found in the mid-high $20's range if you look hard enough. His 95 Bowman RC averaged $26.22 last month, but can be found for around $12-15 if you're lucky. Guerrero has already experienced the peak of his career, but don't think that he's ready for retirement just yet. At 32 years of age, I'm thinking that he could have another 6 to 9 productive years left, which would make him a lock to reach the 500 HR career milestone (he only needs 132 more). Did I mention that he also has 2,001 hits? 3,000 is definitely not out of the question.

Tulowitzki was an all-around standout last season, a strong contributor with the bat and a great fielder with the glove (.987 FPCT). Before he got injured in late April, he was still fielding well (.986 FPCT), but just wasn't getting it done at the plate. His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC (his only base Auto rookie) was a steal through last September for around $30-40 TAC (probably because all of the hobby attention was on Ryan Braun, the guy that beat him out for the NL ROY). It then jumped to around $70 in October when the Rockies made their Cinderella-run to the World Series, and peaked out in the $80's range in November. Through this March & April, it's been a solid seller for around $70, but don't expect it to stay at that level. While he's out for the next several weeks, we'll probably see two things happen: 1) these cards will become very scarce on the auctions, and 2) those that are listed will be available on fixed-price auctions, or will sell well below it's most recent $70-level. It's hard to say whether or not Tulowitzki will be a good investment. I'm thinking that it will all depend on the price-point at which you buy at. (Note: The card pictured is his parallel #'d 399, not his base rookie card).

2008-04-30T21:57:00.000-07:00

Triple Play,

Thanks for your comments. Regarding Joba Chamberlain, I think that his cards have still retained a good amount of their potential value throughout his time spent in the bullpen. In the past week or so, his 07 Bowman Chrome Auto RC has been selling in the $120-150 range, his Bowman Sterling Auto RC in the $70-80 range, and his in the Bowman's Best Auto RC $60-70 range. I don't know what these cards were selling for before (when he was starting), but these are all very high prices for a non-starting pitcher, meaning that collectors never believed that he wouldn't return to the rotation. When he does return, I think that his values could still increase if he does well, but if he doesn't meet expectations, his cards could potentially experience a bigger drop than we've seen thus far.

With the Yankees struggling so far in '08, Chamberlain could very well move back into the rotation very soon, and have the opportunity to shine (maybe he could take Phil Hughes' spot?). Honestly, Chamberlain isn't one of the players that I watch too closely, so all of this is just my semi-informed best guess.

Yes, I am a fan of Micah Owings (that obvious huh?) Did you see that he had a pinch hit 2-run homer tonight? He may put it all together this season. So far he's off to a well-balanced start, with a 4-0 record, 3.48 ERA & 8.13 K's/9IP pitching, and is batting .421 with 1 HR & 3 RBI in 19 AB. Not too bad!

2008-04-29T19:43:00.000-07:00

NBA Playoffs: First Round

Some of the stars that have stood out during this first round of the playoffs (and have hobby presence) are Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

Kobe led his Lakers into the 2nd round last night, finishing off their sweep of the Nuggets. Leading the league in playoff scoring thus far with 33.5 ppg (including 49 pts & 10 assts in game 2), Kobe has been virtually unstoppable in the 4th quarter. Many people are speculating that this may finally be his year to win the MVP (which would be well-deserved), but part of me thinks that someone else may slip in and take it from him. His 96-97 Topps Chrome RC averaged $176.54 TAC in April (one sold for $196.77 the day after his 49-point performance), up from $159.28 in March, and it's season-low average of $109.46 in December. His mid-level rookies haven't faired as well as his Chrome. His 96-97 E-X RC averaged $27.55 TAC in April, down from $33.98 in March, and his 96-97 Finest RC averaged $23.90, down from $26.60. It seems like collectors are favoring his high-end cards rather than investing in his more common issues. With the Mavs on the outs and Tim Duncan passing his prime, the Lakers are on their way to forming the next Western Conference dynasty. A lot of sports fans seem to actively dislike Kobe, which could keep him from reaching his full hobby potential.

Chris Paul & the Hornets have been the hottest surprise of the season. Paul posted a triple-double tonight as he & his crew handed the Mavs their second straight first round playoff exit. He averaged 24.6 ppg, 12 apg, 5.6 rpg & only 1.2 turnovers/game through the Dallas series. Everyone seemed to automatically think that the Spurs were going to move on to the conference finals against the Lakers, but now there's probably a lot of reconsideration going on. Personally, I think that it would be great to see this young & exciting team challenge L.A. for the Championship rights. Paul's mid-level rookies have been just as hot as his on-court play, with his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 averaging $138.12 in April, up from $114.57 in March (it started the season averaging $57.25 in November). His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #d 750 averaged $188.70, up from $133.36 (it averaged $90.84 in November). I saw one of his rare 05-06 SP Authentic Auto/Patch RC #'d 1-100/1299 sell for $283.95 in April. These cards were selling in the $215-230 range during Nov-Dec. Paul may be the one player that could steal the MVP from Kobe this year.

The Magic eliminated the Raptors on Monday 4-1, led by Dwight Howard's 22.6 ppg, 18.2 rpg & 3.8 bpg for the series. He's quickly becoming the most dominant center in the league, and at only 22 years old, you can bet he's gonna get even better. The Magic may not win their conference this year, but expect them to be in contention very soon. His 04-05 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 750 averaged $127.31 TAC in April, down from $142 in March, and it's season-high of $160.25 in December. His 04-05 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 999 averaged $121.30, down from $157.51 last month, and it's season-high of $160.51 in December. Both of these cards started to increase in sales price toward the end of this month, signifying a revitalization of hobby interest. I haven't seen any of this higher-end rookies for sale in April.

2008-04-24T19:56:00.001-07:00

MLB Briefs: Early Rises & Falls

Manny Ramirez had a slow start in '08, batting .256 with 1 HR & 8 RBI through 4/11. During those first two weeks of the season, his 92 Bowman RC was averaging $12.20 TAC. Since then, he's been lighting it up at the plate, now with a .356 BA and 6 HR & 20 RBI. That same Bowman rookie is now averaging around $17.99.

Through 4/6, Rick Ankiel was batting .348 with 3 HR & 6 RBI, and his 99 Ultimate Victory RC was selling in the $40-56 TAC range. It was all downhill from there, with his BA plummeting to it's current .244, with just 4 HR & 11 RBI total so far for the season. His UV rookie has also been falling, first down to the $30's last week, and now into the $20's this week.

The Yankees' Phil Hughes was commanding top $ this past off-season, but has not been able to find his groove through his first 4 starts. His first outing was decent, posting a 3.00 ERA and a no decision. He then proceeded to lose his next 3 starts, and his ERA has risen to 8.82! All of his key Auto rookie cards have experienced drops in value as a result. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC fell from around $112 TAC at the beginning of the month down to the mid $80's range. His BC Ref Auto RC dropped from the high $140's down to the low $130's, and his BC X-Fractor Auto RC dropped from around $280 down to around $250.

Johan Santana was a super hot commodity when he got traded to the Mets. Last month, his 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 averaged $76.57 TAC, and his 00 Finest RC #'d 3000 avearged $136.76. Through his first 4 starts, he's posted a disappointing 2-2 record & 3.12 ERA (hobby expectation was much higher, with a lot of anticipated value already built into his pricing). Both of key rookies have dropped off quite a bit in April, with his BB RC averaging $65.75 (last sale $46.88 on 4/20) & Finest RC averaging $114.10 (last sale $99.65 on 4/20).

Felix Hernandez started the season with a 0.00 ERA in this first two starts, but received no decisions in both due to disappointing reliever performances. He finally got his first win in his 3rd start, and is now 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA after 5 starts. His 04 Bowman Chrome Auto RC was selling for around $105 TAC in early April, and has since risen to around $115. His BC X-fractor Auto RC was at around $220, and is up to around $230 now.

2008-04-19T23:45:00.000-07:00

Player Focus: Ervin Santana

Angels' pitcher Ervin Santana is off to a solid start, going 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA, and averaging 7.33 K's/9IP & only 2 BB/9IP. On Saturday, he tossed a 3-hit, 8-inning gem to help the Angels beat the Mariners 4-1 (only run allowed was a solo-homer to Adrian Beltre).

The 25-year-old Santana entered the majors in '05, and had his best season thus far in '06, posting a 16-8 record, 4.28 ERA, and averaging 6.22 K's/9IP. Collectors then had him on their radar, and anticipated bigger & better things in the following year. Unfortunately, '07 turned out to be a huge disappointment. Santana's inconsistencies sank him, as he posted a horrible 7-14 record & 5.76 ERA. You can imagine how that impacted his card values (I had him on my watchlist for over a year, and ended up dropping him to make space for other players). For those collectors who still believed in him (or felt like doing a little gambling) in the past year, your investments may start paying off this season. I had bid on a few of his rookie auctions, but didn't end up winning any of them.

One of his BB rookies sold on Saturday for $10.26 TAC.

2008-04-18T22:16:00.000-07:00

Rays' Ace Kazmir Prepping for Return

Scott Kazmir, last season's AL strikeout leader (1 K short of Jake Peavy's MLB-leading 240 K's), began '08 on the DL due to an elbow injury. On Friday, he had his first rehab start in Class A, and reported that he was able to work on all of his pitches, and "felt good for the most part". In 3 IP, he gave up 1 ER & 1 H, with 0 BB & 3 K's.

For those who read my top pitchers list last season, you know that I consider Kazmir the best in his age group. His rookie cards remained relatively inexpensive in '07, despite his strong performance (probably a lot of it has to do with him playing for Tampa Bay). I like his 02 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC & 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC, which can be found for around $40 & $20 TAC, respectively.

The Rays started the season 3-1, but then hit some rough patches and fell to their current 7-10 record, putting them into last place in the AL East. Kazmir is now expected to return to the team on 5/3; not a day too soon.

2008-04-18T21:03:00.000-07:00

Bynum Update

The latest official news on Andrew Bynum, who's been out since 1/13, is that "his knee still feels "unstable", and that he feels pain during movement", according to the L.A. Times on 4/12. Now, 6 days laters and 2 days till game 1 of the LA-DEN series, people are speculating that he may not return until the Western Conference Finals, to give him extra rest since he shouldn't be needed until the Lakers face the Spurs or possibly the Suns, who both have big centers that Pau Gasol wouldn't be able to handle.

As I wrote before, Bynum's key auto rookies have hit record TAC values since he's been out. Collectors were hyped when he was playing so well at the beginning of the season, and it seems that they've just continued to carry that feeling for the past few months, with the expectation that he would return to help lead the Lakers to a championship. I myself have shared this sentiment, to some degree, also. It's probably true that they couldn't contain Tim Duncan without Bynum (although in the case of the Suns, Shaq is a far cry from what he used to be several years ago, and the Lakers could probably deal with him on the floor for 25 mpg). In my opinion, the Lakers can make it to the Western Finals without Bynum, but to move on to the finals with Boston, they'll need him on the floor playing close to the level he left off at when he got hurt.

Bynum's 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 is averaging $98.05 TAC in April (another monthly record high), up from $87.73 in March (and up from $24.34 last November!). His 05-06 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 is averaging $88.90 in April, down from $97.10 in March. I'm attributing his SPx price drop to the lazy sig that's on this card - "AB#17" (check out my post on 11/27/06 titled "Player Focus: Andrew Bynum Auto Variations" for more details). Although, I wouldn't be surprised if this card does start to jump up to the $100+ range, since collectors tend to like the triple-threat rookie card: serial #'d, auto & game-used all on the same card.

2008-04-17T22:23:00.000-07:00

Around the MLB

The Royals' Zack Greinke is 3-0 in his first 3 games of '08, posting a 0.75 ERA and allowing just 2 ER in his last 24 innings pitched. A perfect start to a comeback season, after missing time in the majors over the past two years due to psychological issues and inconsistent pitching. Greinke's 02 UD Prospect Premiers Auto RC has been selling $25-30 TAC range this month. If he can keep consistent, and mentally stable, this card should see it's value rise very soon.

Florida's Scott Olsen had a good outing on Tuesday, allowing 5 hits, 0 runs & 0 walks with 3 K's in 7 innings pitched. He's now 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA after 3 starts. In his first full season in '06, he set the Marlins rookie strike-out record with 166, and picked 12 W's. After having a subpar '07 season, I think that Olsen is due for a rebound. His 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC has averaged in the $6-9 TAC range over the past year, and could be set for a rise in '08.

David Wright is off to a good start, batting .313 with 4 HR & 15 RBI. On Tuesday, he helped his Mets beat the Nationals, going 3-for-4 at the plate, with a 2-run HR, 2 doubles & 5 RBI. Wright is coming off of a strong '07 season, where he hit .325 with 30 HR, 107 RBI & 196 hits. The Met's are gonna need him to lead their offense if they want to compete with the Marlins & Phillies for the NL East title. His 02 Bowman Chrome Auto RC has been selling in the $260-300 TAC range this month.

Justin Verlander was one of the most consistently good pitchers in the league the last two seasons, but his first 4 starts in '08 have been horrible (just like his team). He picked up his 3rd straight loss on Wednesday, as the Indians pounded the Tigers 11-1, and now has a 0-3 record with a 7.03 ERA. Verlander's 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC averaged $69.32 TAC in March, up from $52.99 in February. I haven't seen any sell so far in April, but I would expect to see prices fall. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC averaged $39.05 TAC in March. Ditto for this one too. Verlander is a definite talent and should have a productive MLB career ahead of him. If and when his prices do fall, there should be some good buying opportunities out there.

2008-04-12T20:30:00.000-07:00

Young D-Backs Off to Great Start

The Arizona D-Backs are off to a great start this season, posting an 8-2 record (MLB best) in their first 10 games. They have 5 decent-potential players in their line-up that are 25 years old or younger, and any one of them (or more) could be on the verge of a breakout season. I'm focusing on the three that should make big improvements in performance this season, versus in '07. (Note: All stats are as of 4/11/08).

Mark Reynolds, their 2nd year third baseman, is batting .308 with 5 HR & 14 RBI; both MLB bests. Last season, in 111 games, he hit .279 with 17 HR & 62 RBI, and averaged 1.16 Strikeouts/game. There's been an increased amount of market activity on his 07 Bowman Chrome RC & it's parallels. He also has base auto rookies in 07 Upper Deck Future Stars, Exquisite Collection Rookie Signatures (#'d 199), UD Black (#'99), Bowman's Best & Finest (I could be missing a few). If he can keep consistent & reduce his SO/game (vs last season), he should be on his way to helping the D-Backs to another post-season appearance.

Justin Upton, their 2nd year rightfielder, is batting .368 with 4 HR & 7 RBI. Last season, in 52 games, he hit .221 with 2 HR & 11 RBI, and averaged 0.86 SO/game. Upton is considered to have the most potential out of all 5 of these players, with commentators on ESPN predicting that he'll soon be a perennial All-Star. He's been on fire so far this season, hitting 4 homers in his first 10 games (twice as many as he did last season in 52 games!). Upton's 06 Bowman Chrome Auto RC & it's parallels have been hot sellers since their release. Expect to pay close to $200 for his base card. At this point, a lot of his future value has already been built into current prices. Reynolds is probably a better buy right now, from a "bang-for-your-buck" standpoint (of course I could be wrong - look at Albert Pujols' 01 Bowman Chrome Auto RC!).

Stephen Drew, their 3rd year shortstop, is batting .294 with 2 HR & 2 RBI. Last season, in 150 games, he hit .238 with 12 HR & 60 RBI, and averaged 0.67 SO/game. Drew's rookie cards have held decent value over the past year, and should have a good amount to grow if he can gain more consistency at the plate. His 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC has averaged in the $42-52 TAC range over the past year, with April sales in the high $40's. His 05 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 99 has been selling in the $90-116 range.

Just as I'm writing this post, I hear on ESPN that Justin Upton hit a 3-run homer against the Rockies earlier today, giving him 5 HR for the season. He's now batting .415 with 5 HR & 11 RBI. Reynolds picked up his 15th RBI.

These guys could potentially experience the same type of hobby explosion that the Brewers' young stars had in '07. Prince Fielder was one of the hottest players before the break, and Ryan Braun took over the spotlight thereafter.

For those who left me comments recently:

Gellman - Great Santana sale! I unfortunately didn't pick up any of this cards while they were down. Those are the stories that keep us all in the market, searching for that next player who'll jump in value.

Thomas - Thanks for your complement. My content & writing quality isn't as good as I'd like, but I'm glad to hear that someone out there is reading it! Much appreciated.

2008-04-11T16:00:00.000-07:00

Player Focus: Micah Owings

The D-Backs' RHP (and sometimes slugger), Micah Owings, has done quite well on the mound in his first two starts this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, 3 BB and 13 K's in 13-2/3 IP. His bat, though, hasn't quite warmed up just yet (1-for-6 with 3 strike-outs).

In '07, Owings made his MLB debut on 4/6/07 tossing 5 shut-out innings to help his team beat the Nationals 7-1. On 8/18/07, he had 7 K's in 7 IP and allowed 3 ER, in addition to batting 4-for-5 with 2 HR & 6 RBI in a 12-6 win over the Braves. He had his first career shutout on 9/18/07 against the Giants. In his final start of the regular season, he pitched 6-1/3 shutout innings and went 4-for-4 with 3 RBI at the plate enroute to an 8-0 win over the Pirates. Owings had his ups and downs during his '07 rookie campaign, and unfortunately his one post-season appearance was one of his downs. He allowed 6 runs (2 earned), including a 3-run HR to Matt Holliday, in the D-Backs' 6-4 loss to the Rockies in the 4th & deciding game of the NLCS.

Owings only has one base auto rookie - 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto. This card has had a monthly average TAC of between $9.00-15.50 since last August. The two parallel versions of his TCU RC, the Refractor Auto #'d 500 & Black Refractor Auto #'d 200, have averaged in the $11-20 range and $20-39 range respectively, over the same time period.

In my opinion, Owings has a good amount of hobby potential, with his ability to help his team both defensively & offensively. During his bad pitching months last season, I had mentioned that maybe he could follow in Rick Ankiel's footsteps. But, given his first two starts this year, it looks like he may have the skills to remain in the D-Backs' rotation, and provide the added bonus of an occasional HR here & there instead.

2008-04-08T23:27:00.000-07:00

MLB Briefs: Poor '08 Starts

Phil Hughes, the Yankees' 21-year-old pitcher, picked up his 2nd N/D in 2 tries on 4/8. He now has a 2-game record of 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA, allowing 10 hits, 5 BB with 6 K's in 9 IP. Collectors' belief in Hughes' potential have kept his top rookie card values high. His 04 Bowman Chrome Auto RC has averaged in the $95-120 TAC range in the past couple of months (compared to someone like Justin Verlander, who's 05 BC RC has sold in the $50-70 range, despite having accomplished so much more on the mound than Hughes has). His 04 SP Prospects Auto RC #'d 400 has been selling in the $165-175 range, and his 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto RC #'d 1485 has been in the $35-60 range. Because of his age, he'll get quite a bit of hobby-leeway (at least for a little while). He may become a huge star for New York in the future, but as of today, I'd say that he's a higher-risk bet, at current market values. Of course, that risk level would come down some if his cards become more affordable.

At one point, Hunter Pence was one of the hottest commodities in the hobby in '07 (until he got injured). He posted an impressive .322 BA with 17 HR & 69 RBI in 108 games played. So far in '08, he hasn't been able to keep his 3-6 Astros out of the NL Central's bottom spot. He's batting a pitiful .179 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB and 10 strike-outs in his first 9 games. His 04 SP Prospects Auto RC #'d 600 is selling for around $160 TAC this month, down from close to $200 in March, and a high of $309 last July. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto RC #'d 672 has been selling for around $100, down from a high of $134 last July, and his 04 Hot Prospects Auto RC #'d 299 has been selling for around $125, down from a high of $139 last July. Pence has the chance to be a part of one of the best line-ups in the NL, with guys like Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman (potentially that is - so far none of them have been too consistent).

Last year's NL ROY runner-up, Troy Tulowitzki, hasn't been able to carryover his strong offense from '07 into the '08 season (so far). In his first 8 games, he's batting .212 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3 BB & 6 strike-outs. The bright side is that he started the '07 season batting a similar .200 with 0 HR & 1 RBI through his first 8 games, and still ended the year at .291, 24 HR & 99 RBI. So there's still hope for him to turn things around in '08! His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC (his one-and-only base rookie auto) has seen huge growth over the last year, averaging $33 TAC last July, then peaking out at $82 last November. This month it's been selling in the $70's range, signaling that the hobby still maintains the belief that Tulowitzki is the future of the franchise, and could possibly help the team reach the post-season again. The only complaint that I have about the TRC set is that there are too many parallels; #'d to 399, 299, 199 & 50, in addition to the unnumbered base).

2008-04-06T21:53:00.000-07:00

MLB Briefs

Edwin Jackson, the 24 year-old veteran D-Rays pitcher, had a great 1st outing this past week. In 6 IP, he allowed just 5 hits, 1 run, 2 BB with 4 K's against the high-powered Yankees, en route to his first W of the season. I've been writing about Jackson, with the hope that he would one day gain the consistency that his coaches obviously believe he can achieve. Currently, all of Jackson's rookie cards are dirt cheap, but if he has a few more starts like this past one, expect hobby interest to grow, along with his values. I personally like his 03 Leaf Limited Auto #'d 99.

Clay Buchholz lost his season debut, as the Red Sox got blasted by the reinvigorated Blue Jays 10-2. He pitched 5 innings and allowed 6 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), 2 BB with 7 K's. It wasn't too bad of a performance, but he didn't get any run support. Buchholz's 05 Bowman Chrome RC has been selling for around $10 TAC this month, down from $12.69 last month, and $13.09 in February. Expect to pay in the $30's range for his BC Ref, the $70's range for his BC X-fractor #'d 250, the $200's range for his BC Blue Ref #'d 150, and the $300's range for his BC Gold Ref #'d 50.

Roy Oswalt, a week after getting out dueled by the Padres' ace Jake Peavy, got beat down again for his second straight loss. In 6-2/3 IP, he allowed 10 hits, 6 runs (5 earned), 1 BB with 0 K's against the Cubs. He's now 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA. The last sale that I saw for his 00 SPx RC #'d 1600 was for $107.50 TAC back on 4/5. I expect this card to fall to the sub-$100 level very soon. The Astros, who are now 2-5, really need their top ace to get into the swing of things if they want to make any kind of a run for the NL Central title.

Jake Peavy was even more dominating in his second start than he was in his first. On 4/5, he tossed a 1-run complete game, allowing just 2 hits & 1 BB with 8 K's to beat Brad Penny & the Dodgers 4-1. He's now 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. While watching the Dodgers beat the Padres on 4/6, they had a poll asking who the public thought would be the top pitcher in the NL West between Penny, Peavy & Brandon Webb, and Penny actually won with 45% of the votes. I personally don't see it. The last sale that I saw for Peavy's 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC was for $42.88 on 4/2, down from an average TAC of $50.36 last month. I wouldn't be surprised if this card hit the $100 mark this year, as Peavy is probably the most dominant pitcher in the majors. Also, I doubt that the "dark substance" observed on Peavy's hand was anything to worry about. Unfortunately, when a player is on top of his game, there will always be those people out there trying to find something negative to bring them down.

Florida's lead-off hitter, Hanley Ramirez, has been hot in the hobby for the past few years, and is off to a great start here in '08. He hit his first homer of the season on 4/5, and is batting .400 as of today (4/6). Last season, he hit .332 with 212 hits, 29 HR & 51 SB. Ramirez is a rare commodity, and his cards will definitely continue to rise, despite their current lofty price levels. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC is averaging $63.33 this month, down from the $80 level it's been selling at for the past two months. His 03 Bowman Chrome Auto RC has been selling in the $175-185 range in recent.

2008-04-03T22:18:00.000-07:00

Arenas Makes Comeback

Gilbert Arenas finally made his return, joining his fellow Wizards against the Bucks on Wednesday. Coming off the bench (actually not coming out of the locker room until 5:30 of the first quarter), he scored 17 points in 20 minutes of play, and shot 5-for-9 from the field, including 2-for-3 from 3PT, and 5-for-7 free throws. Arenas' top rookie cards have been pretty scarce since his injury back in mid-November, for obvious reasons. His 01-02 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1525 was a hobby standout last season, reaching into the $100's range. This season, it peaked out at $77 TAC back in November (probably below the $100-mark because of his embarassing comments made at the beginning of the season), and dropped down to around $60 in March. I would expect a little increase in value now that he's back, but not the big jumps that he could've had if he had returned earlier in the year, and helped the Wiz earn their current #5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

2008-04-01T19:41:00.000-07:00

MLB Highlights 3/31/08

Erik Bedard had a strong debut with the Mariners, helping them to beat the Rangers 5-2. Despite not getting a decision, he only allowed 1 earned off of 3 hits in 5 innings pitched, with 5 K's. Over the last 6 months, Bedard's top rookie card, his 01 Donruss Class of 2001 #'d 625, has been selling in the $25-32 TAC range. I didn't see any of these cards sell in March, but I expect to see more hitting the market as sellers try to cash in on his early success in his new home.

Joe Torre's first game as the Dodgers' skipper went well, with a 5-0 shutout against the Giants. Ace Brad Penny tossed 6-2/3 scoreless innings. Unfortunately his lone rookie card, his 97 Bowman RC, is pretty much value-less (meaning no market value; didn't want to use "worthless"). L.A.-newbie Andruw Jones went 1-for-4 (1B) in his first game with the team. His 95 Bowman's Best & Bowman RC's averaged around $18 & $13 TAC, respectively. Both of these cards have a good amount of potential for upward movement if he and the Dodgers can improve on their sub-par performances from last season.

Johan Santana didn't disappoint in his Mets debut, helping his team to a 7-2 win, going 7 innings and allowing 3 hits, 2 ER and 2 BB with 8 K's. He allowed a 2-run homer to Josh Willingham in the 4th. Santana's 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 averaged $76.57 in March, down from $97.06 in February. His 00 Finest RC #'d 3000 averaged $136.76, up from $125.06 in February. I saw two of his Finest Ref RC #'d 1000 sell in March, for $203.50 on 3/8 and $258.65 on 3/23.

David Wright went 2-for-4 (two 2B) with 3 RBI for the Mets. His 02 Bowman Chrome X-fractor Auto RC has been selling in the $400-440 range recently.

In the best pitching match-up of the night (and maybe the week), Cy Young winner Jake Peavy outdueled his hunting buddy Roy Oswalt to help his Padres to a 4-0 victory. Peavy allowed just 3 hits & 3 BB in 7 IP, with 4 K's. Oswalt got squeezed for 11 hits & 3 runs in 5-1/3 IP with 6 K's. Peavy's career opening day record in 3 starts is now 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA.

Peavy's 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC averaged $50.36 in March. From last November through February, this card had been stuck at around $46 TAC. Oswalt's 00 SPx RC #'d 1600 averaged $99.01 in March, it's lowest level in the past 10 months.

2008-03-31T19:30:00.000-07:00

MLB in the News

The Twins' Francisco Liriano had two solid outings this past week. He went 1-0 in a combined 9IP, allowing 3 hits, 1 run & 4 BB with 12 K's. Despite these impressive showings, he'll be starting the season in the minors. After missing the entire '07 season, undergoing Tommy John surgery during his rookie season in '06, the Twins have decided to bring Liriano along slowly - which is probably a good idea. Minnesota needs to think about what's best long-term for their 24-year-old star pitcher, especially with the loss of their former ace, Johan Santana.

Liriano's top two rookie cards are his 02 Bowman Chrome & Bowman's Best Auto. His BC has been selling for around $30 TAC over the past week. His BC Ref #'d 500 can be found in the $55-70 range. His BB Auto RC (his only rookie Auto), has been selling in the $80-90 range. When searching for his 02 BC RC, be careful which card you buy. There's a Bowman Chrome #174 and a Bowman Chrome Draft #BDP147. The one that's considered his "True" rookie card is the BC #174. (some collectors don't care which one they get, since both are technically his "rookie" year issues). On ESPN, it was reported that Liriano will get at least two starts in the minors to "improve his conditioning and his fastball" before they consider calling him back up to the majors.

Milwaukee's young starter, Yovani Gallardo, had undergone arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on 2/19. Then, on Friday, it was reported that he was being placed on the 15-day DL, due to a "torn lateral meniscus in his left knee". Hopefully that knee of his isn't becoming one of those chronic ailments that prevents him from reaching his full potential. Gallardo had a break-out rookie season in '07, going 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA & 8.2 K's/9IP, in 17 starts.

Gallardo's only two base Auto rookies have been solid sellers since last season. His 04 Donruss Elite EE Auto #'d 803 peaked at around $60 TAC last June, then fell to a low of $36 in December, and has since risen back up to the $50 range in recent. His 04 SP Prospects Auto #'d 400 has been a really tough find over the last 6 months. I saw one sell in December for $119.65 TAC, and another for $109.88 in September. Before that, this card was selling in the $165-185 range, during the '07 regular season.

Liriano & Gallardo have potential to be stars, both on the field and in the hobby. Now might be a good time to invest, while both of them deal with their temporary set-backs on the way to their 2nd seasons in the majors.

2008-03-26T22:35:00.001-07:00

Beckett's "Sports Card Monthly"

When I received my inaugural issue of Beckett's Sports Card Monthly a few weeks back, I was pretty excited to see what it had to offer. After spending a few minutes each day browsing its pages after work, I've come to the conclusion that I'd like to have my old, single-sport subscription back. Like most hobbyists, I don't collect all of the sports, and would rather have the page-space dedicated to the sports that I do have interest in. I wonder if Beckett did some sort of consumer survey and found that people actually wanted all this variety. Or maybe they polled the card shops asking if customers typically buy multiple sports. Whatever the case may be, their marketing $'s could've been better spent on something else (like continuously finding ways to improve their content).

I liked that they carried over the "Hot List" from the old one-sport format, and "The Card Universe" pie chart showing the card breakdown by sport was interesting. The "Landmark Set Spotlight" was a decent read, and the "Preview" section (also a carryover) is always good to know.

I really didn't like that they eliminated the older-year card/price lists. It seems like the idea behind replacing peoples' subscriptions with this new publication is to try to get collectors to branch out from their one or two favorite sports and start buying a wider variety. But, as a former Football & Hockey card collector, my first thought while reading this would be to check on the prices for those cards that I bought several years ago (and still have tucked away in storage) to see if there's been any market movement. Being able to look those cards up would probably inspire me more to consider re-entering those sports again, rather than just being able to look at what cards are available for the current season (just my personal feeling).

The "Player Price Guides" were a total waste of space. By listing every card issued for just a few select players, it targets such a small niche of hobbyists. Most collectors only want to buy a particular player's rookie and high-end Auto/Game-Used cards. I would guess that very few people actually collect every single card issued for a player (despite Beckett spotlighting "Super Collectors" who do collect that way).

The insert that came with this first issue said that we can request them to change us back to our one-sport subscription. I'll probably be making that call really soon.

2008-03-25T22:33:00.000-07:00

NBA: Hot Properties

Andrew Bynum's mid-range auto rookies are still on the rise, despite him being injured since mid-January. It was first reported that Bynum would return in time for the playoffs, but now he's expected to be back on the floor in a couple of weeks. Bynum's 05-06 SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 has risen for the 4th straight month, averaging $87.73 in March, up from $82.44 last month. His SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499 has experienced a similar, consistent upward movement, averaging $97.10 in March, up from $88.77 last month. His high-end auto rookies seem to be flattening out in value, with his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225 selling for around $670 ($673 last month).

I'm personally shocked that Bynum's been able to maintain this increasing level of value without even playing! When he returns, if he can pick up where he left off, I expect his SPA & SPx rookies to start averaging in the $100+ range very quickly.

Deron Williams' auto rookies are up across the board in March, with his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 averaging $52.38 ($42.52 last month), his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 at $72.46 ($61.04), his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 99 at $873.30 ($693), and his Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250 at $104.99 ($78.01). Williams has led his Jazz on a great run, improving their record from 17-16 at the end of December to their current 47-25, placing them in the #4 seed for the playoffs (not to say that that couldn't easily change with how tight the race is in the West this season).

Williams will be a top 3 NBA PG for the next decade plus, and his card values have room to grow, based on current price levels.

Jordan Farmar has been one of the hottest players in the hobby this month. He's really stepped up his game to help his short-handed Lakers stay on track for the playoffs. Watching him play, you can really see how much he's grown & matured. His scoring has increased to 9.3 ppg (4.4 ppg last season) in just 5 more minutes playing time per game. His contributions go beyond just purely stats, and collectors have obviously picked up on that. Some of his average TAC values for March are: 06-07 SP Authentic Auto #'d 999 - $28.96 ($11.07 last month), SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1199 - $36.02 ($23.74), Bowman Chrome Auto - $29.77 ($25.25), E-X Auto #'d 899 - $18 ($9.77), and Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225 - $171.28 ($134.83).

I've always felt that Farmar had great potential, but I didn't expect him to become a hobby-hit for a couple more years. I guess circumstances can really put a player to the test. It's really impressive to watch guys like Farmar & Sasha Vujacic taking advantage of their increased playing time.

2008-03-16T12:38:00.000-07:00

Spring Pitching Highlights of the Week

On 3/7, the D-Rays' Jeff Niemann got his 1st Spring win, out-dueling young Phillies ace Cole Hamels. Niemann went 3 innings, allowing 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB & had 2 K's. He got his 2nd win on 3/15, leading his team over the Yankees 7-2, allowing just 1 run off of 6 hits, with 0 BB & 1 K in 4 IP. Niemann's 05 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC has been selling in the $6-11 TAC range for the past 6 months, through February. One sold on 3/9 for $12.01, possibly signaling an increasing level of hobby interest in this future ace. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC is averaging around $10 TAC this month.
On 3/10, the Red Sox & Mets tied 1-1, with Johan Santana & Jon Lester both tossing gems for their respective teams. Santana went 4 innings, allowing 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB with 4 K's. Lester also went 4 innings and allowed 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB with 5 K's. Santana was really hot in the hobby last month, with his 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 averaging $97.06 TAC, and his Finest RC #'d 3000 at $125.06. So far in March, his cards have cooled down some, with his BB RC at $77.68, and Finest RC at $61.24. Lester's 06 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC has been selling in the mid $20's range, and his Ref version #'d 199 in mid $50's. I saw one of his 06 Bowman Chrome Ref Auto RC #'d 500 sell for $40.70 TAC earlier this week.
On 3/11, Seattle's Felix Hernandez tossed 5 shut-out innings against the Rockies, but his relievers blew their 1-0 lead in the 7th, and they ended up losing 4-1. Hernandez's 04 Bowman Chrome Auto RC jumped to $106.40 last month, up from $76.09 in January. It's the first time that card has had a monthly average TAC over $100 since August '07. His 04 Bowman's Best Auto RC has been hovering in the $40-55 range since last June. The first March sale that I saw, on 3/15, went for $78 TAC. Fluke or new price point?
On 3/15, Roy Oswalt pitched six perfect innings, leading the Astros to a 15-6 win over the Braves. In those 6 innings, he didn't allow a single hit, run or walk, and fanned 7 batters. Oswalt's 00 SPx RC #'d 1600 averaged $105.74 in February, down from a monthly average high of $122.83 back in July '07. After his performance this week, you can bet that collectors will be jumping all over his best rookie card, driving it's value back up to previous levels (or higher).

2008-03-16T00:21:00.000-07:00

T-Mac, Rockets on a Historical Run

The Rockets have now won 22 straight games, with the last 10 coming without their leading scorer (before getting injured)/rebounder/shot-blocker/freethrow shooter, Yao Ming. Tracy McGrady has really stepped up his game in Yao's absence, but collectors have been very slow to drive up his rookie values, despite his success on the court. During the November through February period (he did miss 11 straight games in Dec/Jan), his 97-98 SP Authentic RC averaged between $10-12 TAC. In March, while he's been carrying the Rockets (along with Rafer Alston), that card has just started to show some signs of life over the past week, with it's average TAC rising to $13.75. I don't think that we've seen the real jump in value that's in store for McGrady's top base rookie card, as long as the Rockets can continue their success into the playoffs. It could have the potential to reach around $20 TAC.

I haven't seen any of his ultra-rare 97-98 Skybox Autographics Auto's sell this season. I did see two of his 97-98 Skybox Rubies #'d 50 sell recently though. One went for $284 in February, and the other for $206.50 on 3/13.

With the Celtics coming to town tomorrow, and the Rockets visiting New Orleans, Golden State & Phoenix thereafter, this miraculous streak may be coming to an end soon. It was surly a great run, and hopefully they didn't peak out too early.

2008-03-15T09:05:00.000-07:00

D-Rays Players: Long-Term Value

One reader wrote the comment: "I just cannot buy cards of D-Rays players. The investment angle is iffy at best. Have they ever had a player who retained high value over the past 10 years?"

In response, I would say no, there hasn't been any hobby-worthy players in their organization since their inception 10 years ago, which isn't that surprising for an expansion team. As a matter of fact, how many teams overall have had a player that has sustained hobby success consistently over the last decade? It's probably a pretty short list. Scott Kazmir is probably the D-Rays' best bet for making their mark in this arena. Through his first three full seasons, he has a combined ERA of 3.52 and is averaging 9.65 K's/9IP (10.30/9IP over his last two seasons). He was, and remains, my top pick for pitchers in his age range. His 02 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC has been selling in the $60's TAC range, and his 04 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC can be found for around $20.

Carlos Pena was hot last season, but as we saw in the market, his cards couldn't hold their lofty values for more than a few months, before falling to about half of their peak value. The rest of Tampa Bay's young, up-and-coming players are a pretty risky bet; but that's part of the fun of prospecting!

In reality, I don't see the D-Rays making a run for the Series anytime soon, but you never know. Look at the D-Backs, who won the Series just 3 years after their debut season. With the right draft picks & trades, anything is possible.

2008-03-14T22:46:00.000-07:00

Strong Performers, Disappointing Teams

One player that has been a strong performer, but has never been a part of a successful team (except for GS last season, but because of his injury, he took a backseat to Baron Davis & others on the team) is Jason Richardson. Richardson was taken by the Warriors in the '01 draft with the 5th overall pick. He had been increasing his scoring average slowly every season, peaking in 05-06 at 23.2 ppg. Then in 06-07, he had knee surgery which limited him to just 51 games, and his scoring average dropped to 16.0 ppg. During his 6 years with Golden State, the team went 206-286. Richardson was then traded to Charlotte this season for the rights to forward Brandan Wright. He seems to be making a comeback in his new home, bringing his scoring average up to 20.9 ppg, and is looking healthy (he's started all 63 of the team's games thus far). Richardson's top rookie cards from 01-02 include his SP Authentic Auto #'d 700, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 250 (x3 versions) and of course his Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250. Do a search on ebay and you won't find any of these three cards listed for sale (there is one Ultimate RC, but its graded, and I don't track graded cards). I think that collectors have been holding on to his cards, waiting for the market to turnaround. Because the Bobcats have the 4th worst record in the East, I would say that a little more time is needed before we see any significant rise in Richardson's card values. But, since he's surrounded by young, potential stars like Emeka Okafor, Gerald Wallace & Raymond Felton, Charlotte may become a contender within the next few years (unlike say, Miami), which should give him a boost (if he's still there, and stays healthy).

Another player, whose performance has been improving every season, is Danny Granger. Unfortunately, as Granger's output increased, the Pacer's W's have decreased. He averaged 7.5 ppg in 05-06 (team record: 41-41), 13.9 ppg in 06-07 (team record: 35-47) and is at 18.5 ppg through 3/11 (team record: 25-39). Granger has several base Auto rookies available; all of which can be found for well-below book value. They are his 05-06 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225, Greats of the Game Auto #'d 99, Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250, SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 and SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1499. Granger might make a good investment, especially if he's still around to lead the Pacers when they cyclically move back to the upper part of the Eastern rankings.

2008-03-09T22:37:00.000-07:00

Player Focus: Jeff Niemann

The D-Rays' Jeff Niemann had his first Spring win on Friday, out-dueling Philadelphia's ace Cole Hamels. He pitched 3 hitless innings, with 2 BB & 2 K's. Tampa Bay went on to win 9-1. After going 12-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 25 starts at Triple-A Durham last season, Niemann looks ready to make the jump to the majors in '08.

Toward the end of the '07 season, his 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC was trading in the $18-19 range, before gradually falling to an average TAC of $11.75 in February. So far in March, it's averaging $10.25. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC has seen a wide range of prices recently, with one selling last month for $5.99, and another selling this month for $12.01. In past months, prices have fallen somewhere in between. As of now, Niemann is on the D-Rays' 40-man roster, so if all goes well, he should be lighting up batters in the Bigs next month. His cards have tons of upside potential, and are priced to buy. My only concern would be his propensity for injury. He has missed playing time both in college and in the minors, so hopefully he's in good health and ready for the challenge.

2008-03-07T19:00:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Steve Nash

Steve Nash, probably the best PG in the game right now, has been slowly regaining his hobby stature with each passing month this season. His 96-97 Topps Chrome RC had an average TAC of $25.85 in November, $27.93 in December, $30.80 in January and $32.68 in February. In each of those months, Nash averaged double digit points & assists, helping his Suns to achieve one of the best records in the West. In his last 10 games, he's averaged a decent 18.4 ppg and 9.8 apg, but his team went 4-6. The hobby was quick to respond to Suns' short slump by punishing Nash's top rookie card's market value. So far this month, it's averaging just $25, down 23.5% from February, and lower than it was at the beginning of the season.

It's too bad that the Suns traded away the versatile Shawn Marion for the well-past-his-prime Shaquille O'Neal. I think that they could have acquired & started a so-so center (like the Celtics did with Kendrick Perkins) without giving up any of there top 6 players, and had a better chance at the championship this season. Nash isn't getting any younger, and the Suns really need to find a roster mix that will optimize their chances at success. I'm afraid that the 07-08 season will end with a first round playoff exit, and they'll be back to the drawing board again.

With Nash's Chrome rookie trading as season-low levels, now might be a good time to find some deals. One sold on 3/4 for $23.49. A low $20's price tag creates a lot of room for value growth.

2008-03-05T19:22:00.000-08:00

MLB Potential Buying Opportunities

Some of the players that I think have a chance to rise in value this season are Justin Verlander, Clay Buchholz, Edwin Jackson and Elijah Dukes.

Verlander has been pretty consistently good through his first two full seasons in the majors, with a combined 3.65 ERA, 35-15 record, 7.13 K's/9IP and 2.95 BB/9IP. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC peaked out at a monthly average TAC of around $80 last season, and then fell to $50-60 during the off-season ($52.99 in February). After the Tigers had their meltdown in '07, they've bulked up their roster for '08 with the additions of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis & Edgar Renteria, and they should make a run for the post-season. Look for Verlander to continue to post 15+ win seasons for years to come, and take his place among the next-gen future HOF pitchers. His 05 Bowman Sterling Auto/Jsy RC probably has an even bigger potential for growth than his BC RC. It peaked out in the high $40's, then fell to the high $20's during the off-season.

Buchholz gained his fame last season when he threw his no-no, driving his 05 Bowman Chrome Draft RC up to an average TAC of around $21. The hobby-hype soon died down when he got hurt and missed the rest of the season, and his BCD RC got stuck in the $11-12 range for the next four months. In February, it started to show some signs of life again, moving up to an average of $13.09. His BCD Ref has been selling in the mid $40's, and his BCD X-fractor #'d 250 in the mid $80's. The last BCD Gold Ref #'d 50 that I saw sold for $437 back in November.

Jackson, who has only shown brief signs of fulfilling his potential over his five-year MLB career, could be on the verge of becoming a strong contributor in the D-Rays' rotation in '08. He'll be joined by Scott Kazmir (a future strike-out king), the newly-acquired Matt Garza and call-up hopeful Jeff Niemann (who had a great year in the minors in '07). There have been very few Jackson rookie cards listed for sale on auction over the past couple of years, but I would expect to see an increase if he can perform as well as he has thus far in Spring Training. Hopefully he just needed a few years to mature, since he came into the league at such a young age.

I had high hopes for Dukes last season, until his personal problems distracted his play, and eventually ended his season prematurely. His 07 Bowman Auto RC reached an average TAC of $17-18 at its peak, but then started its descent after his departure, bottoming out in the $8-9 range. In February, his Bowman RC averaged $9.34, and his 07 Bowman Blue Auto #'d 500 was at $14.51. Dukes is still a risky bet, but his potential brings out the gambler in many collectors. I'll probably try to pick up one of his Bowman base Auto rookies if I can find one for $7-8 TAC.

2008-03-04T22:52:00.000-08:00

MLB Rookie Card Update - February '08

Over the last month or so, there seems to have been an increase in rookie card prospecting on the open market. Ken Griffey Jr.'s 89 Upper Deck RC jumped to an average TAC of $30.53; it's highest level since July '07. Collectors know that as long he's able to suit up this season, he should have no problem reaching the 600 HR mark (he's at 593); especially without the steroids/HGH taint that plagued other recent 600 HR hitters like Sammy Sosa.

Alex Rodriguez's 94 SP RC also experienced a jump in value, averaging $141.45 TAC, up from $122.09 a month earlier. His die-cut version was at $154.35, up from $134.42. These price levels are considerably higher than those seen during the season, when he was leading the majors in both HR (54) and RBI (156). I don't know if this increase is the result of people finally realizing that he's really going to be the career HR king, or if new, less experienced buyers are now entering the market and are willing to dish out more $ than others. Who knows? Anyway, now probably isn't the best time to buy.

Matt Holliday's 99 Bowman Chrome RC's value has been slowly creeping up over the last couple of months. It averaged $11.21 in December, $13.39 in January, and $14.88 in February, getting closer to it's peak of $17.83 back in October '07, when his Rockies made that miraculous World Series run. Since Colorado has been locking up most of their players from last season, I would expect that they will compete quite well again in '08.

As soon as trade rumors started circulating during this off-season, Johan Santana's key rookie cards have been on the rise. His 00 Finest RC #'d 3000 averaged $93.15 TAC in December (it peaked at around $70 during the '07 season), then $104.68 in January and $125.06 in February. His 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 was selling in the high $90's range in February. Santana is arguably the most dominant pitcher in his age group, and he should be able to help the Mets win the NL East, and advance in the post-season in '08.

Last season's NL ROY, Ryan Braun, was one of the hottest players in the hobby after the break in '07. His 05 Bowman Chrome Auto RC peaked out at around $172 TAC in August, then bottomed out at $124.08 in December. It's now back on the rise, averaging $144.18 in February. Also last month, his 05 BC Ref Auto #'d 500 was at $218.83, his 05 BC X-fractor Auto #'d 250 was at $226.50, his 05 Bowman Sterling Auto was at $85.14, and his 05 Bowman Heritage Signs of Greatness Auto was at $51.35.

More to come!

2008-03-04T17:51:00.000-08:00

Note: For those newer readers, "TAC" stands for Total Acquisition Cost, meaning the total that a buyer pays for any particular item (base price + shipping & handling cost).

2008-03-03T19:35:00.000-08:00

Celtics Pick Up Cassell

Sam Cassell will be moving to Boston on Tuesday, to back up second-year point guard Rajon Rondo. What will be the impact on Rondo? Rondo seems to think that Cassell's arrival will help him, despite Cassell potentially taking away some of his playing time. I think Rondo's right.

The Celtics have three of the best players in the league in their line-up. What they've been lacking is an experienced point guard to run their offense, to tie all that talent together. They've relied thus far on Rondo, a 22-year-old who only started 25 of his 78 games last season. Now, not only will they have an experienced PG on the floor for 20+ minutes per game, they will also have a great mentor, who has championship experience, for Rondo to learn from.

Rondo's key Auto rookie cards have been either steady or increasing this season, as a result of his expanded role on a winning team. His 06-07 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1199 has been selling for around $28-30 TAC, while his SPA Auto #'d 999 can be found in the $18-22 range. His best buy for under $20 is his Sweet Shot Auto #'d 799, which averaged $15.53 in February. Expect to dish out between $250-300 for his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225.

If you're interested in getting a less-lazy Auto than his "RR" shown above, pick up his Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Patch RC #'d 250 or his Sweet Shot Auto RC #'d 799. The Auto's on these two base rookie cards show a little more effort.

Rondo has potential to be a big hobby hit in years to come, and could be the sleeper point guard prospect for the Eastern Conference.

2008-02-20T21:35:00.000-08:00

Kobe, Lakers Ruin Shaq's Phoenix Debut

With great delight, I had the pleasure of watching the 2nd half of the Lakers-Suns game tonight. With so much hype about Shaq's debut with the Suns (and of course because they were playing the Lakers), the game definitely lived up to expectations. I especially enjoyed when Kobe rejected Shaq, except for the mistaken goal-tending call that resulted. The Lakers are the real deal. When Andrew Bynum returns, they'll have the two 7-footers at the 4 & 5 positions, 6-10 Lamar Odom at the 3, and Kobe & Derek Fisher playing the 1 & 2 positions, respectively. I don't think there's another starting line-up in the league that can match up with them. And with their bench greatly improving, I think that hands down they'll be the team to beat when the playoffs come around.

Kobe has shown us time & time again that he is still the best player in the NBA. When he shoots, it's almost a shock when it doesn't go in (seems like his teammates are surprised too since half of them are already heading down court when the balls released!). I'm glad that Kobe didn't come into the league when most players had way too many rookie-year autos, but if he had one or two it would be nice. You can expect to pay around $145-155 TAC for his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC, and around $20-25 for his 96-97 Finest RC (his top two base rookie cards). As for his 96-97 Topps Draft Redemption insert, people have been dishing out around $65 in the past week.

Odom is finally starting to live up to previous expectations. His card values, much like his play, have remained underwhelming for years. He has 7 double-doubles in his last 10 games, helping the Lakers to a 9-1 record during that time. His 99-00 Skybox Autographics Auto has been selling in the $13-19 TAC range this month, up from around $11 a couple of months ago. He doesn't have any base auto rookies, so inserts will have to do. The most limited is his 99-00 E-X E-Xplosive Auto #'d 99, which is pretty hard to find, but was selling the $30's range back in December.

I was reading an article in the March 2008 Beckett (pgs 6-9) about Kobe signing Upper Deck products and noticed that he's signing his full name again. Wonder what impact that's gonna have on his previous autos? It went from "Kobe Bryant" to "Kobe 8" to "Kobe", and now back to "Kobe Bryant". Maybe the "Kobe 8" will emerge as the most valuable one, especially since the bulk of his early autos have this sig, and he no longer wears number 8. Hard to tell how the market will react.

2008-02-19T15:40:00.000-08:00

MLB '08 Is Right Around the Corner

The MLB off-season feels so short. It seems like I was just reading about the '07 post-season! One potentially big transaction was Seattle picking up pitcher Erik Bedard. Bedard was on his way to a career-best season in '07 before his early exit in late August due to injury. He ended up with a 13-5 record (not bad considering his team finished 69-93), a 3.16 ERA and 221 K's in 182 IP (10.93 K's/9IP). He also tossed a 2-hit shutout against the Rangers on 7/7, with 0 BB's & 15 K's! The big question mark that's been looming over his head is his health, but if he can remain injury-free, you can expect his cards to jump a couple of notches in hobby stature. His 01 Donruss Class of 2001 RC #'d 625 is his only serial #'d rookie card (although many sellers put his 02 cards up on auction, and list them as his "RC" cards). In August, before he got hurt, this card was selling in the $60's range. Thereafter, it's been fluctuating in the $25-32 range, through January. I haven't seen any sell so far this month, but I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to rise again with the prospect of him pitching in a better rotation, and for a better team overall.

Another player on the move that I'm very excited to see is Andruw Jones. Jones signed a 2-year deal with the Dodgers, after spending his first 12 major league seasons with the Braves. It was reported that Jones has put back the 15 lbs that he lost with the hope to regain his strength at the plate (Agent Boras had previously advised him to lose the weight, to make him more attractive as a free agent). Jones is hoping for a longer-term contract extension in L.A. before putting down permanent roots in his new city. In the meantime, he'll be renting a house in Calabasas (a suburb about 45 minutes northwest of Dodger Stadium). Over the past couple of months, Jones' 95 Bowman's Best RC has been selling in the $20-22 range, and his 95 Bowman RC in the $11-13 range. I haven't seen any Bowman's Best sold this month, but his Bowman RC has been averaging $14.62, possibly signaling an increasing level of hobby interest. Despite hitting only 22 HR in '07, we need to remember that he hit 41 & 51 HR in '06 & '05, respectively, and he could do it again for the Dodgers. I believe that Jones has the potential, from a hobby standpoint, to match the values of Vladimir Guerrero's rookie cards, which have been selling for about 50% more on the Bowman's Best, and 100% more on the Bowman.

2008-02-10T21:28:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Tyson Chandler

In his 7th year in the NBA, Tyson Chandler seems to finally be on the verge of fulfilling his potential (and people's expectations). For the first time, he's averaging double digit points, in addition to double digit rebounds (12.2 ppg & 12.3 rpg). His fouls per game have also improved, to 2.89 (previous 3 seasons it's been 3.3, 3.8 & 3.4 fpg), which helps to keep him in the game & defending. Obviously the change in environment has done him good. Playing under fellow previous L.A.-high-school star Byron Scott, and alongside players like Chris Paul have transformed him into a multi-dimensional contributor.

Collectors have definitely taken notice. Chandler's two most popular Auto rookies, his 01-02 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 250 (x 3 versions) & SP Authentic Auto #'d 1525, have been increasing in value every month this season. His SPx RC averaged $13.26 in November, $16.89 in December and $30.83 (a little too inflated) in January. His SPA RC averaged $8.33 in November, $10.38 in December and $12 in January. His premium 01-02 Ultimate Collecton Auto RC #'d 250 has been a hot seller recently, averaging $50.58 in January.

The Hornets have a bright future, and Chandler's key rookies have room to grow.

2008-02-09T22:23:00.001-08:00

MLB Market Movements

99 Ultimate Victory Josh Beckett RC - During the fourth quarter '07, Beckett's top base rookie was selling in the $25-30 TAC range. Then in January it jumped to an average of $47.65. During the first of week of February, I saw one sell for $39.95. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 also got a boost last month to $76.50, from $63.25 in December.
00 Bowman Grady Sizemore Auto - This card has been slowly sliding in value since the end of the season. It averaged $228.72 in December, and $210.81 in January. Pretty soon, you might be able to find them for $200, or less.
02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels RC - It averaged in the low $20's range through August, then experienced a drop, and stayed in the $16-19 range for the next 4 months. Finally, it's edged back up over $20, averaging $22.06 in January, it's highest since June '07.
03 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard Auto RC - After peaking out at an average of $400 in August, this card dropped into a full free-fall. It averaged $261.09 in November, then $247.26 in December and $225.50 in January. Sales seem to be finally leveling off in February, with prices at around $230.
03 Bowman's Best Dan Haren Auto RC - After a great start in '07, Haren's performance started faltering mid-season, and his card values followed. His BB Auto RC peaked in June at around $40, then fell to $35 in July, $27 in August, $23 in September, then bottomed out at $17 in October. It then jumped to $34.99 in November (probably due to trade speculation), and again in December to $36.02, when Haren joined the D-Backs' rotation. The hype then died down pretty quickly, with an average price of $24.35 in January. One sold for $30.01 on 2/7.
05 Bowman Chrome Draft Clay Buchholz RC - This card went from obscurity to hobby standout after Buchholz tossed a no-hitter against the Orioles on 9/1. It averaged $21.25 in that month. Then, at the end of September, he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. His BCD RC dropped by about 50%, to the $11-12 range the next month, and held steady at that price level through January. There hasn't been much change so far in February, with the average sales price at $12.24 through 2/9. Over the past few months, his BCD Refractor has been selling in the $45-55 range, and his BCD X-fractor #'d 250 in the $75-95 range. With Curt Schilling projected to be out most of the season, you can expect Buchholz to get more opportunities on the mound in '08.

2008-02-03T12:33:00.000-08:00

Impact of Gasol Trade

With Pau Gasol moving to the Lakers, we can expect some movement in at least a couple of players' hobby stature. In Memphis, Rudy Gay had already begun to emerge as the star there this season, averaging a team-high 19.7 ppg; about 9 ppg more than when he was a rookie last year. He's improved in all of his shooting%'s, and also leads the team in steals (1.48 spg). Gay's 06-07 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1199 averaged $33.25 TAC in Jan, up from $28.30 in Dec. His SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 299 experienced an even bigger jump, going from $30.07 in Dec to $41.25 in Jan. If you don't mind spending triple digits, his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 99 has been selling for around $300 for the past couple of months. I like his unique Chronology Letter Patch Auto RC #'d 99, which has been selling in the $45-65 range over the past month.

The trade also opens up the opportunity for Darko Milicic to finally get a REAL full-time starting role, with the minutes to go with it. After being drafted in the #2 spot after Lebron James in '03, Milicic has received increasing, but limited time on the floor. In his last two games, where he played 40 & 36 minutes per, he posted 14 pts, 16 reb & 5 blk and 12 pts, 12 reb & 2 blk, respectively. His 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 750 has been hovering around $15-17 TAC over the past two months. His SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 500 could be found for around $20. Expect to dish out $300+ for his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 99. Hobby attention should start to increase for Milicic's key rookie issues, as he becomes more of a contributor to this young, up-and-coming Grizzlies line-up.

As for Gasol himself, he isn't one of the players that I watch, so I don't know what the market was like for his rookies before the trade. I do know that there aren't too many of his cards on auction, and that, if I'm not mistaken, he doesn't have any rookie-year Auto's. According to Beckett, his book values are very high, but as we all know, that doesn't necessarily reflect the actual market. I'm sure that playing for the Lakers will inherently raise collectors' awareness level of Gasol, which should in turn raise his values. It's just a question of by how much those values will be affected, which should be driven by his performance.

I'm still shocked about Andrew Bynum's values. He goes down with injury and isn't expected to return for 8 weeks, and sales prices of his key rookies skyrocket! So far in February, there doesn't seem to be any slowdown. I saw one of his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC's #'d 1299 sell for $103.95 TAC on 2/2 (the highest sale that I saw in Jan was for $79 on 1/17). Just goes to show the high level of confidence collectors have in Bynum's future.

2008-02-02T22:58:00.000-08:00

No Break for Kobe

With the continuously improving Andrew Bynum in the line-up, Kobe Bryant seemed to be on the verge of finally having a chance to take a little breather from carrying the Lakers on his shoulders. Kobe averaged 26.5 ppg & 6.0 rpg in Nov, 26.6 ppg & 6.3 rpg in Dec, and 24.4 ppg & 4.6 rpg in Jan (through 1/13). Since Bynum went down on 1/13, Kobe has kicked his production into overdrive, averaging 34.3 ppg & 7.6 rpg. Unfortunately, the one-man-show doesn't work for the Lakers (they're 4-5 since 1/13), and none of the other players seem to be stepping up.

Kobe's 96-97 Topps Chrome RC averaged $128.05 in Jan, up from $109.46 in Dec. His Finest Bronze RC averaged $17.03 in Jan, slightly up from $16.59 in Dec. His Topps Draft Picks insert experienced a pretty decent lift to $67.14 in Jan, up from $54.42 in Dec.

I guess the Lakers ownership also recognized the lack of support after Bynum went down, so they decided drop some of their excess (I was sad to see Crittenton go) and pick up Memphis' star-center Pau Gasol this past week. I think it was a good move to acquire Gasol, who can slide over to PF when Bynum returns, giving the Lakers a very formidable duo to contend with.

Kobe's values have been pretty depressed for a while, despite his awesome play. There are quite a few deals to be found on auction for his key base rookie cards. One of his most collectible, and hardest to find, rookie-year cards is his 96 SB Auto, which may be the only card out there with his full sig. This card, along with his Topps Chrome Ref & Finest Ref, seem to maintain the highest level of hobby stature out of all of his rookie-year issues.

2008-01-26T21:45:00.000-08:00

NBA Hobby Update: Al Jefferson & Andrew Bynum

Al Jefferson finished last season as a breakout star for the ailing Celtics, averaging 16 ppg & 10.9 rpg. This season with Minnesota, he hasn't lost a step, averaging 20.9 ppg & 11.2 rpg in Nov, 19.9 ppg & 12.8 rpg in Dec and 21.4 ppg & 11.5 rpg so far in Jan (thru 1/25). Unfortunately, the T-Wolves have a league-worst 7-35 record. They're definitely at the very beginning of a rebuilding phase. Luckily, though, they do have a few young of players with potential (in addition to Jefferson) that they can build around (Sebastian Telfair, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Randy Foye, Gerald Green). Maybe they need to dump a few of their centers (5 of the 15 players on their roster are centers).

Jefferson's 04-05 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1499 is averaging $21.52 this month, down from $26.35 in December. His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 is averaging $31.41, just about the same as it's $31.22 average last month. I really believe that his team's performance is holding him back from elevating to that next level of hobby stardom. He has 31 double-doubles in his first 42 games this year, and 9 in his last 12 games. 23-year-old Jefferson is definitely a player to buy!

Andrew Bynum got injured back on 1/13, right when his rookie cards were making some major jumps in value as a result of his increasingly impressive performances. What impact has his absence on the court had on his values? None at all it would seem. His 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 was averaging around $40-45 TAC this month. After his injury, $66.25! Same story for his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499; $66.49 before, and $81.33 after! Despite being out an estimated 8 weeks, it was reported that doctors didn't have any concern about Bynum making a full recovery. I guess collectors share that sentiment! Bynum's SPA Auto RC has now caught up with Chris Paul's in value this month, putting it in a tie for the top $ spot of the set (can't compare SPx because some rookies are #'d to 1499 & others to 750).

Deals on Bynum's key Auto rookies are hard to come by these days. If you're looking for his higher-end cards, you can expect to pay $110-120 for his Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 250, and around $400 for his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225.

2008-01-21T23:45:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Gerald Wallace

Charlotte's highly athletic forward, Gerald Wallace, is a very exciting player to watch. He became a regular starter when he was selected by the Bobcats in the expansion draft 4 years ago, and has increased his scoring every season since. Through 1/19, he's averaging 21.5 ppg (25.3 ppg in January). Unfortunately, Charlotte won't be winning their division (or even going to the playoffs) any time soon. They are getting better with the addition of players like Jason Richardson, Raymond Felton & Emeka Okafor, but they have a long road ahead of them.

Wallace, unlike a lot of other rookies in 01-02, only has one true base Auto rookie; his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 800 (actually a total of 2400 since there's 3 versions #'d to 800). It only books for $15 in Beckett, but on the actual market it's selling anywhere between $20 to $40 TAC right now. It's all about timing, so keep an eye on those listed on auction & you might be able to find a decent deal.

Wallace is only 25 years old and is just starting to settle down & focus on playing ball (we hope). I think that with his skill & athleticism, and limited number of Auto rookies, he could be a sleeper hit in the hobby sooner than later.

2008-01-20T15:05:00.000-08:00

NL ROY - How the Two Finalists Performed in the Market

The '07 NL ROY race was the closest ever under the current system. Ryan Braun beat out Troy Tulowitzki 128 to 126. Both players had outstanding seasons, and both of their rookie cards experienced tremendous growth throughout the year.

Braun's benchmark 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC peaked out in August at an average TAC of $172. From August, his batting average dropped from the .340's down to the .320's, and his BCD Auto RC fell in value to $130 in October, then got a little boost to $137 in November when he won the ROY, then fell again to $124 in December. So far in January, it's averaging $128, with it's most recent sales in the low $130's range.

Tulowitzki's 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC (which has quite a few parallels) rose from it's average TAC value of $33 in July, to it's peak of $82 in November, as he helped his team get to the World Series. After he lost the ROY, his rookie cards became quite scarce. I didn't see any for sale in December, and only one so far in January, which sold for $67.04 TAC today (1/20). This card has parallels numbered to 399, 299, 199, 99 & 50.

Offensively, Braun was the better performer. In 113 games, he hit .324 with 34 HR & 97 RBI. In 155 games, Tulowitzki hit .291 with 24 HR & 99 RBI. From a fielding standpoint, Braun committed 26 errors compared to Tulowitzki's 11. It seems that offense typically gets more attention than defense, which is probably why Braun won out.

If you didn't buy into these players last year, it may be too late to find many good deals. One alternative to Braun's BCD Auto RC is his 05 Bowman Sterling Auto RC, which has been averaging $76 TAC this month, up from $68 in December, but still down from it's peak of $105 back in October. As for Tulowitzki, he only has the one Auto rookie, so you'll just have to keep your eye out for misspelled listings, auctions ending at odd times or some other type of opportunity!

2008-01-14T18:03:00.000-08:00

Bynum Injured; Out 8 Weeks

Just when Andrew Bynum started to emerge as a star, he gets hurt, possibly blowing the Lakers' chances to take over the Pacific Division from the Suns. With Chris Mihm out for another couple of weeks, they'll have to rely on Kwame Brown to take over the center position. Very disappointing news! Hopefully the other players will be able to take up the slack and continue their successful run of 6 straight wins. Bynum was averaging 17.3 ppg & 12.2 rpg so far in January.

Bynum's rookie cards were just starting to pick up steam, with his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 selling in the $40's range, and his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 averaging in the mid $60's. Since it's already been said that he's expected to make a full recovery, I wonder how much of an impact this injury will have on his values. I guess we'll probably see what typically happens in these situations; the optimists will hold off selling their cards/look for deals to buy, and the pessimists will start unloading their cards. Personally, I think we will see some pull-back in the market, but probably nothing too major.

2008-01-12T16:48:00.000-08:00

High-End Rookie Sales Report

Here are some high-end rookie & rookie-year parallel sales (TAC) over the past few months. After the year, card & player name is the month of the sale(s) and single or monthly average sales price.

94-95 Finest Grant Hill Ref: 11/07 - $62.03, 12/07 - $97.80
02-03 SPx A/J Spectrum Carlos Boozer #'d 25: 12/07 - $135.50
03-04 SPA Auto Ltd Carmelo Anthony #'d 50: 12/07 - $192.50
03-04 Exquisite A/P Carmelo Anthony #'d 99: 1/08 - $1,803.95
03-04 SPx A/J Spectrum Leandro Barbosa #'d 25: 12/07 - $133.50, 1/08 - $117.28
04-05 SPx A/J Spectrum Dwight Howard #'d 25: 11/07 - $486.99
04-05 Exquisite A/P Dwight Howard #'d 99: 1/08 - $1,753.95
05-06 Exquisite A/P Andrew Bynum #'d 225: 11/07 - $213.47, 12/07 - $259
05-06 Exquisite A/P Deron Williams #'d 99: 11/07 - $950.98, 12/07 - $811.17
05-06 Exquisite A/P Chris Paul #'d 99: 11/07 - $1,583.33, 12/07 - $1,013.95
06-07 Exquisite A/P Brandon Roy #'d 99: 1/08 - $637.98

Aside from Grant Hill, all of these players will probably end up as the superstars for their respective positions for the next decade or so.

2008-01-04T23:05:00.000-08:00

NBA Rookies on the Move

Below are some rookies that are selling at higher price levels so far in January versus December. The first price is the Dec average, and the second reflects the latest sales prices through the first 4 days of Jan.

96-97 Topps Chrome Kobe - $109.46 -> $131.83
98-99 SPA Paul Pierce #'d 3500 - $29 -> $36
98-99 SPx Finite Paul Pierce #'d 2500 - $7.62 -> $15
01-02 SPA Joe Johnson Auto #'d 1525 - $11.31 -> $14.93
04-05 SPA Dwight Howard Auto #'d 999 - $160.51 -> $170.50
05-06 SPx Andrew Bynum A/J #'d 1499 - $42.02 -> $60.65
05-06 SPA Chris Paul Auto #'d 1299 - $57.73 -> $64.75

Keep an eye on Kendrick Perkins' rookies. He's now the starting center on the hottest team in the NBA. Although he's playing a supporting role to the big 3 stars on the team, it's allowing him to gain the attention of the hobby as a result. His 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 was selling for less than $5 TAC a year ago. It's averaging $11.11 this past week. Tony Allen is also set to rise in value.

A couple of the rookies that are selling at lower price levels are:

02-03 SPx Amare Stoudemire A/J #'d 1999 - $48.85 -> $40.28
03-04 SPx Carmelo Anthony A/J #'d 750 - $127.45 -> $113

Now is probably be a good time to pick up Gilbert Arenas rookies. Arenas hasn't played since 11/16, and his hobby standing has fallen significantly. It also didn't help that he ran off his mouth at the beginning of the season, and couldn't back it up. Sellers are holding off listing his key Auto rookies on auction, but you can probably find some good deals on his non-Auto Ultimate Collection RC #'d 750 & SPx RC #'d 1999, which were selling in the $50-70 & $30-50 ranges respectively last season.

2008-01-02T23:22:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: David West

Power Forward David West is one of those players that has consistently improved each year, has been a consistent producer for his team, and has eluded the hobby spotlight. From the beginning of the season through 12/17, he averaged 18 ppg & 9.3 rpg. In his last 8 games, those numbers have increased to 24 ppg & 10.4 rpg, which have helped the Hornets to their current 7-1 run.

West's Auto rookies were easy finds for under $10 for most of his career; until recently. It seems like the hobby is finally starting to notice his contributions to this up-and-coming New Orleans team. I just saw one of his SPx Auto/Jsy RC's #'d 1999 sell for $18.50 TAC earlier today (probably a record high for this card!). In the near term, I'm guessing that you'll be able to pick up his SPx RC for around $10-15 TAC. If the Hornets can continue their success, and become one of the next-gen power teams, expect his values to rise. Collectors will probably start digging through their rookie common boxes, looking for those West cards that they had nearly forgotten about, from 5 long years ago.

2007-12-31T22:02:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: LaMarcus Aldridge

The Blazers were one of the hottest teams in Dec, going 13-2 (including winning 13 straight). Why then is their young star LaMarcus Aldridge's rookies falling in value? Maybe it's because the Blazers had their recent surprising success in spite of Aldridge. His stats in Nov, when the team went 5-10, were 18.5 ppg & 8.3 rpg. They then fell in Dec, when the team hit it's hot streak, to 16.9 ppg & 5.9 rpg. He also missed 5 games right in the middle of their 13-game W streak, due to a foot injury, showing collectors that he currently isn't as instrumental as people may have previously thought to the team's success.

Here is a list of some of his key 06-07 rookies that dropped in value from Nov to Dec: SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 299 fell from $54.76 to $49.46; SP Authentic Auto #'d 299 fell from $59.60 to $47.67; Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 99 fell from $480.95 to $416.77; E-X Auto #'d 199 fell from $41.55 to $32.16; Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Patch #'d 150 fell from $54.25 to $34.01.

I don't mean to take anything away from the potential that Aldridge has. I do think that he, along with Brandon Roy, are the future of this franchise. I just think that people wanted to rush the idea of his "stardom" a little too prematurely. He is definitely improving, and should continue to evolve into a star. Portland has a very young line-up who will help them to become a Northwest division title contender before we know it. Aldridge is a very decent investment for the future, and at current market values, is becoming a pretty good buy also.

Happy New Year!

2007-12-29T22:14:00.001-08:00

NBA Briefs

Dwight Howard has back-to-back 20+ rebounds games. He grabbed 21 against Charlotte on Saturday, and 21 against Miami on Friday, giving him six 20+ rebound games this season. If anyone had any doubts, I'm sure they're convinced now that Howard is the next dominant "big man" in the NBA. At only 22 years old, he's averaging 23.3 ppg & 15.1 rpg for the Southeast-leading Magic. His 04-05 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 750 is averaging $160.25 in December, up from $124.26 in November. Most recent sales have been in the $170-175 TAC range. His Ultimate Collection Auto RC #'d 250 has been averaging $274.46 this month. I don't think that his rookies have reached their max value yet. There's still room for growth.
Bucks' star Michael Redd is been averaging 23.8 ppg, down from his 26.7 ppg in 06-07 and 25.4 ppg in 05-06. I expect to see Redd increase his scoring average as the season moves forward, as he's done every single year he's been in the league (as long as he stays healthy). His 00-01 Fleer Autographics Auto has been a pretty consistent seller in the $8-10 TAC range this season. His 00-01 E-X Auto #'d 1-500/1500 is averaging $18.22 this month, down from $25.72 in November. In my opinion, Redd is one of the more underrated players in the hobby, kind of like Paul Pierce (until recently). Maybe he, like Pierce, will have to wait until the Bucks become a better team, or until he gets traded to a contender, in order for his hobby status to rise.
After losing some of the spotlight to rival point guard Deron Williams last season, Chris Paul seems to be making a comeback this year. He's averaging 21.5 ppg, 10 apg & 2.9 spg (compared to Williams' 19.4 ppg, 8.7 apg & 1.2 spg). His Hornets are also having a great start. With a 20-10 record, they're currently #2 in the tough Southwest division, only 1 game behind the Western Conference-leading Spurs. So why are his cards dropping in value? His 05-06 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 is averaging $74.75 this month; down from $90.84 in November. His SP Authentic Auto #'d 1299 is at $49.50 this month; down from $57.25 last month. Even his Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 99 is down by over $500. I've only seen his Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250 rise this month, from $81.27 to $102.79. Paul and Williams are the point guards of the near future. It wouldn't hurt to have a few of their key cards in your collection.

2007-12-28T13:58:00.000-08:00

Paul Pierce's Elusive Rookie-Year Auto

I hadn't seen ANY of Paul Pierce's sole rookie-year autos listed on auction for the past couple of years, and this month I saw two! Of course I'm talking about his 98-99 Topps Auto. The first one sold on 12/4 for $67 TAC, and the second was on 12/11 for $36. I had both on my watchlist, but forgot to bid!

Pierce leads the top-ranked Celtics with 21.1 ppg, and also has 5.3 rpg & 5.0 apg. His 98-99 SP Authentic RC #'d 3500 has been on the rise. Last month it averaged $25.83 TAC, and this month it's up to $29. Pierce has been one of those star players that has cruised under the radar, due to poor team performance. Expect him to jump a few notches on the hobby charts this season as Boston competes for Eastern Conference dominance.

2007-12-25T09:19:00.000-08:00

Padres Roll the Dice, Add Prior to Their Rotation

Less than a month after the Cubs cut their injury-plagued ace Mark Prior, the Padres signed on to bring him to his hometown of San Diego. I still remember pulling his 01 UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC from a pack at the local card store back when the product was first released, thinking who is this guy? Since his debut in '02, Prior has been a dominant strike-out pitcher. Even with his ups & downs the past few years, he's still averaging a career 10.37 K's/9IP. Unfortunately, he only had one full, healthy season back in '03, when he won 18 games & had 245 K's in 30 starts. Being that he missed the entire '07 season while still pulling in $3.5 + million in salary, it's not too surprising that the Cubs decided to let him go. I'm glad to see that there's still interest in Prior, despite his health problems, and to join such a great rotation (with Jake Peavy, Chris Young & Greg Maddux) is just an additional plus.

Prior's best base rookie cards from '01 are his Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250, SPx Auto #'d 1500, Donruss Elite XRC #'d 556 (only avail through redemption) and of course his UD Prospect Premiers Auto XRC #'d 1000. There have been very few on auction during Prior's absence this past season, probably meaning that sellers haven't lost hope that he & his cards will make comeback (otherwise we would have witnessed a large-scale dumping on the market by now).

On espn.com they're saying that he's been throwing on flat ground without any pain, and he should be able to return to play by mid May at the earliest. If he can stay healthy, I think that playing alongside other top-notch pitchers will help him to regain his form back. It would be very interesting to see if he, Peavy & Young were all able to compete for the Cy Young in '08, since they all have the talent to do so. I've been a Prior fan since I pulled that XRC several years ago, and I'm excited to see his comeback.

2007-12-24T17:21:00.000-08:00

Nats Take Risk, Acquire Dukes From Tampa Bay

On 12/6, it was announced that the Nationals had acquired the 23-year-old slugger Elijah Dukes from the D-Rays, for top pitching prospect Glenn Gibson. Many collectors had high hopes for Dukes this past season (his rookie year), but his problems off the field took him away from the game, both physically & mentally. His problems ranged from possession of marijuana to assault on his wife. He only hit .190 for the season with 10 HR & 21 RBI (of which 7 HR & 15 RBI were hit in the month of May), but 43% of his hits were for extra bases, which isn't too bad. What was bad was his striking out every 4.2 AB's.

After Dukes' decent May, his rookie cards started to fall as his problems started to mount. His 07 Bowman Auto RC averaged $17.72 TAC is June, then fell to $9.85 in July, and $8.36 in August. In October, he seemed to receive a little boost as that same rookie moved up to $10.01. I haven't seen any sell yet this month, but there are two ending within the the next week. We'll see if this recent news will help to spark some renewed interest in his cards.

There's no question that Dukes has potential to be an offensive force at the plate. The basic concern is whether or not he can keep his personal problems at a minimum. Hopefully this move to Washington, away from his home state of Florida, will provide him with the fresh start he needs. He's still young enough to turn things around and have a long & successful major league career.

The Nats seem to be planning for success in '08, with off-season signings of players like OF Lastings Milledge, C Paul LoDuca, IF Aaron Boone, OF Wily Mo Pena and others. This could be an opportune situation for a player like Dukes to reemerge as a focused & developing ball player.

2007-12-22T19:45:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Kevin Garnett

After enduring back-to-back losing seasons with the T-Wolves (despite averaging 22.1 ppg, 12.8 rpb & 4.1 apg), Kevin Garnett is finally on a top-tier team. His stats have come down compared to his previous seasons (which is to be expected now that he's sharing offensive responsibilities with Paul Pierce & Ray Allen), but it seemed like as long as he kept his scoring average over 20 and rebounds over 10 (and the Celtics kept winning), collectors were more than happy to bid up his 05-06 Finest RC value.

In Nov, Garnett averaged 20.1 ppg & 11.8 rpg, and his Finest RC averaged $54.25 TAC. From Dec 1st through 11th, he posted 17.5 ppg & 7.5 rpg, and his Finest RC dropped to $49.54. Then, from Dec 12th through 20th, he averaged 17.0 ppg & 6.5 rpg. Even though the Celtics are still winning, his Finest RC continues to fall along with his stats, now down to $37.46.

I guess the only way to maintain a superior value level is for a player AND their team to continuously perform. I'm just happy to see KG finally winning. He deserves to take a breather once in a while! The last two Finest RC's that I saw on auction this past week sold for $36 TAC. I don't expect prices to fall below the $30 mark. Hopefully they'll go back up and stay in the $45-55 range where they belong, especially since this is his best base rookie, and it's the only year that Finest didn't have refractor parallels for the rookies.

2007-12-20T19:00:00.000-08:00

Who's Craig Smith?

A week or so ago I was doing my usual rounds on espn.com and clicked on the T-Wolves game against the Wizards to see how up-and-coming star Al Jefferson was doing, and noticed that this guy named Craig Smith scored 36 with 8 boards. A few days later he scored 30 with 10 rebounds against the Bucks. Who the heck is Craig Smith?

Smith, a 24-year-old 2nd-year player out of BC, was only averaging 8.5 ppg & 4.3 rpg in 16.8 mpg during the month of November. This month, he's increased his playing time to 27.9 mpg, and has upped his stats to 15.1 ppg & 5.4 rpg so far in December. In the 3 games that he's played 30 or more minutes, those stats go up to 27.3 ppg & 8.7 rpg. He and 22-year-old teammate Jefferson could potentially make-up a strong two-man scoring-rebounding duo for years to come.

I guess Smith has had his following of fans, but I had never heard of him. He was the 36th overall pick in the '06 draft, which would partially explain the lack of hobby interest in his cards. From looking on ebay (his cards aren't listed in Beckett since they're considered commons), it looks like he has quite a few rookie-year Auto's. Two that I've been watching are his 06-07 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1199 & Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch #'d 225, which have been selling in the $10 and $25-40 range respectively. I wouldn't say that Smith is going to be a guaranteed hobby star, but there is a possibility. At only 6'-7" and playing the PF position, he may have a tough time matching up against some of the bigger guys out there in the long run.

2007-12-15T20:22:00.000-08:00

Haren Traded to D-Backs, Rookie on the Rise

On Friday it was announced that Dan Haren was heading to the D-Backs in an eight-player trade. Toward the end of the '07 season, Haren's 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC was on the slide, dropping down below $20 in October, from a high of around $40 in June, as his bid for an AL Cy Young diminished due to his fall in performance. In November, there seemed to be renewed interest in Haren, and his BB Auto RC jumped to the mid $30's range. At first, I just dismissed this sudden rise as a fluke, but in early December, another one sold for $34.40 TAC. A day after the announcement of his trade, one sold for $45.75 (even higher than when he was at his peak last season!). I guess the prospect of him playing for a real contender, alongside NL Cy Young runner-up Brandon Webb and possibly future HOF'er Randy J0hnson, is sparking some real hobby buzz.

2007-12-14T20:27:00.001-08:00

Why Aren't Bynum's Rookies Hotter?

The Lakers' 20-year-old Center, Andrew Bynum, has been improving by leaps & bounds. He's now a lot more aggressive under the basket, which not only leads to more boards, but more second chance points. Depending on what the situation demands, he can have a soft touch to lay the ball in, or dunk it with force (unlike injured Kwame Brown, who seems to have an aversion to dunking!). He's also wowing the crowd with alley-oop dunks.

I was watching the Lakers-Warriors game tonight, and had the pleasure of witnessing Bynum score 6 pts & grab 10 boards in his first 11 minutes of the game (he out-rebounded the entire GS team in the 1st Qtr), helping the Lakers to a 28-17 lead after the 1st. He dominated GS starting Center Andris Biedrens and back-up DJ Mbendga. Including tonight, he has 11 double-doubles this season, while only averaging 26 mpg.

Action on his 05-06 Auto rookies is just starting to pick up. Last month, his SP Authentic Auto RC #'d 1299 averaged $24.34 TAC, and his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1499 was at $25.79. His Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #'d 225 was going for around $214. This month, his Exquisite RC is up some, selling in the $250-260 range. You can still find both his SPA & SPx in the mid $20's. If you really want a special card, look for his SPA Auto/Patch #'d 1-100/1299. I saw one sell in November for $124.48 TAC; none so far this month.

If you haven't already read my post from last season on 11/27/06, "Player Focus: Andrew Bynum Auto Variations", check it out to see which of his rookie-year cards have his different autograph variations ("AB#17", "A Bynum" & "A Bynum #17").

2007-12-11T21:22:00.000-08:00

No Arenas, No Problem

The Wizards' star guard, Gilbert Arenas, has been out with injury since 11/17. The team went 3-5 with him, and has gone 6-5 in his absence. Two big reasons for the team's relative success without their top scorer are Caron Butler & Antawn Jamison. Both of these players have eluded the hobby's interest for years, but I think that it's about time for them to get their share of the limelight.

Butler averaged 22.5 ppg this season with Arenas on the court. Without Arenas, 24.7 ppg (excluding the game on 11/20 where he only played 26 min). I became a Butler fan when he played for the Lakers in the 04-05 season, watching him slash to the basket, despite multiple defenders hammering him, and just observing his hard work on the floor. Butler has 5 base Auto rookies from 02-03: Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy #'d 999, Finest Auto #'d 999, SP Authentic Auto #'d 1500, SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 999 & Ultimate Collection Auto #'d 250. All are selling for under BV, and all have at least one parallel (coolest one is the Ultimate Collection Auto/Patch #'d 25).

Jamison averaged 16.5 ppg this season with Arenas. Without him, 23.75 ppg & 10 double-double's in 12 games (4 out of 8 with Arenas there). From day one in the NBA, Jamison seems to have been overshadowed by classmate & fellow Tar Heel Vince Carter. He only has 2 #'d base rookies from 98-99: SP Authentic #'d 3500 & SPx Finite #'d 2500. There weren't any base Auto rookies that year, but he does have 7 insert Autos (including 3 Co-Signers, matched up with Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby & Vince Carter). Just like with Butler, all of Jamison's cards can be found for less than BV.

I can't say for sure that these guys will be hobby stars anytime soon (or ever for that matter), but they should be. I'm thinking that their only chance is if they can continue at this current level of production after Arenas returns, and the Wiz need to make a run at the Eastern Conference title. Then the trio could maybe have the hobby-star package deal going on, kind of like the Suns, with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire & Leandro Barbosa (well, Phoenix almost has it).

2007-12-09T23:07:00.000-08:00

Johan Santana Receives Renewed Hobby Spark

With all of the trade discussions going on recently, Johan Santana is receiving some renewed hobby interest. His 00 Finest RC #'d 3000 was a steady seller in the $55-70 range throughout the season. Now, with the possibility of Santana going to a true contender (Boston or NYY), that same rookie has been averaging $106.75 so far in December. His 00 Bowman's Best RC #'d 2999 averaged in the $50-60 range this past season. I haven't seen any for sale this month, but you can bet they'll be selling at elevated levels as well.

Back in July, Santana was my top pick for "Top Pitcher Investments: Age 28 to 30", and nothings changed since then. I still think that he is, and will be the best in his age group (and age groups above & below him) till the day he retires. Since becoming a full-time starter in '04, he has 983 K's in 912-1/3 IP (9.7 K's/9 IP), a 2.89 ERA, a 70-32 record, and has only allowed 1.95 BB/9 IP.

2007-12-08T13:38:00.001-08:00

MLB Season Wrap-Up: Part 2

Here's part 2, showing the real average market pricing, or TAC, for some of the players that I've been watching. The first price is for September, second is October, and third is November.

02 UD Prospect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto: $147.49 -> $113.03 -> $105.50
03 Bowman's Best Dan Haren Auto: $22.96 -> $17.39 -> $34.99
04 SP Prospects Hunter Pence Auto #'d 600: $203.62 -> $199.54 -> $166.76
04 Donruss Elite EE Yovani Gallardo Auto #'d 803: $44.04 -> $41.32 -> $37.44
05 Topps Rookie Cup Troy Tulowitzki Auto #'d 399: $41.24 -> $74.50 -> $49.00
05 Bowman Chrome Draft Ryan Braun Auto: $164.45 -> $130.85 -> $137.44
05 Bowman Chrome Draft Clay Buchholz: $21.25 -> $11.68 -> $11.59

Prince Fielder broke out this season in a huge way, slamming 50 HR & 119 RBI for the almost-cinderella Brewers. He was one of the hottest players in the hobby before the break, and his UD PP Auto XRC was selling for around $200. After the break, teammate Ryan Braun took over the spotlight, and that same card dropped every month till the end of the season, and beyond. Fielder is gonna be great for years to come, so why sell for so cheap? This card will definitely be back well above it's current $100 range in no time.

Braun's BCD Auto RC also experienced a similar cycle, peaking around August in the $180-200 range, before slowly falling to it's current level. He hit .324 with 34 HR & 97 RBI, in only 113 games this season, helping him to win the NL ROY. Braun was 7th in the majors for fewest at-bats per HR (13.26 AB/HR). I think that his cards are still quite high, so you'd have to watch the market pretty closely to find a deal out there.

Dan Haren finished the season with a very decent 15-9 record & 3.07 ERA. But, what most collectors saw was that at the end of June, he was 9-2 with a 1.91 ERA, so basically things went downhill in the second half of the year, driving his BB Auto RC's value down from it's high of around $40 in June, to it's low of around $17 in September. It looks as if collectors are either regaining faith in Haren, or are just buying without real-market knowledge (since there haven't been many for sale recently), because I saw one sell for $34.99 TAC in November.

Hunter Pence was a red-hot commodity through mid-July (hitting .330, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 8 SB), with his SP Prospects Auto RC peaking in the $300+ range. Then he got injured and was out for almost a month. His values dropped during his absence, and never really recovered after his return, as his performance lost a step or two through the end of the season. If you're a Pence fan, this off-season might be a good time to stock up on his cards. I'm guessing that he'll be back strong in '08.

The Brewers' 21-year-old pitcher Yovani Gallardo showed that he has talent. He had a few blow-up games here & there, but overall did quite well. At the end of July, he had a 3-1 record & 2.72 ERA after 9 outings. His DE EE Auto RC hit its peak around that time in the $55-60 range. August was disastrous for Gallardo, with especially 3 terrible starts, pushing his ERA up to 4.66. Despite having a good September (3-1, 1.36 ERA for the month), his card values continued to slowly erode, falling into the current $30's range. I would rate Gallardo to be a strong buy for the future. He's playing for a young team that should be leading the NL in a couple of years.

Troy Tulowitzki, the NL ROY runner-up, caught the hobby's interest in the latter part of the year, as he & the Rockies started to heat up and make a miraculous run for the postseason. His cards peaked in October, and dropped off after his team lost the World Series. 05 Topps Rookie Cup produced his only rookie-year base auto, but unfortunately they made too many parallel variations of it (NNO, #'d 399, 299, 199, 99 & 50).

When Boston pitcher Clay Buchholz tossed a no-no vs. the Orioles on 9/1, his 05 BCD RC became the hottest thing on the market for a couple of days, selling in the $25-50 range, before coming back down to earth less than a week later. If he had pitched in the postseason (he was injured), he might have had a chance to extend his hobby popularity (or do the opposite). Collectors seem to be keeping a close eye on Buchholz, possibly with the belief that he has a bright future in the majors. The last BCD that I saw sell this month went for $18.51 TAC.

2007-12-07T18:30:00.000-08:00

Is Dwight Howard the Top Big Man in the League?

With a shortage of "true" big men in the NBA, we've seen guys, who might have been power forwards back in the day, stepping into the center position (Tim Duncan used to be the Spurs' PF, when David Robinson was there). Dwight Howard is emerging as one of the best, averaging 23.2 ppg, 15.1 rpg & 3.0 bpg so far this year. Through is first 20 games, he has 17 double-doubles; 12 games with 15+ rebounds, and 3 with 20+. He's been a great rebounder since day one, but now he's showing that he can score too (he has 6 games with 30+ points).

Howard has 4 Auto base rookies from 04-05. The two most common ones are his SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 750 and SP Authentic Auto #'d 999. In November, his SPx RC averaged $124.26 TAC, and his SPA RC $130.64. Through the first 4 days of December, those averages have already risen to $158.57 and $160.87, respectively. I expect those values to maintain their strength, as long as Howard & the Magic continue to play well. Unfortunately, the team has failed to beat 3 out of the 4 division leaders that they've faced (they lost to Detroit, S.A. & Phoenix twice), making Boston the only top-tier team that they've been victorious against. I think that in time, they will be able to compete against those other teams that have been playing together for a while, and could challenge for the Championships in seasons to come.

2007-12-05T19:22:00.000-08:00

MLB Season Wrap-Up: Part 1

Now that we're over a month out of the postseason, let's take a look at how some players' rookie values have changed during the September through November period (all prices listed below are average TAC for each month; Sep, Oct, Nov).

94 SP Alex Rodriguez: $100.85 -> $99.80 -> $120.50
95 Bowman's Best Vladimir Guerrero: $34.85 -> $34.13 -> $34.13

95 Bowman's Best Andruw Jones: $18.81 -> $20.82 -> $28.99

99 Topps Traded CC Sabathia Auto: $54.09 -> $46.83 -> $31.02

99 Ultimate Victory Josh Beckett: $19.19 -> $30.28 -> $25.62

99 Topps Traded Carlos Pena Auto: $37.70 -> $28.36 -> $18.00

01 Bowman Chrome Ref Jake Peavy: $46.83 -> $38.26 -> $46.28

ARod's SP RC was up at the end of the season (as it should've been), but started to fall when he and the Yankees failed to move past the 1st round of the postseason. It started picking up steam in November with all of the contract renewal & breaking the HR record discussions ensued. I expect it to come down again before the '08 season starts.

What can I say about Vladimir Guerrero? His BB RC has been a steady seller (kind of like how he's such a steady performer).

After a subpar season for Andruw Jones, interest in his BB RC started climbing when speculation of what team he might land him hit the news. Jones' cards will fluctuate as they always do, so buy 'em when he's slumping! Being a Jones fan, I'm holding on to my collection regardless of how his values fare.

C.C. Sabathia's values dropped in each of past three months (kind of like his performances). Winning the Cy Young didn't seem to help his slide either. Beckett's values continued to rise through the World Series, but came down some after he disappointedly didn't win the Cy Young.

Carlos Pena had a spectacular power year, hitting 46 HR & 121 RBI, and was the most improved player in the league (and probably the entire majors). After holding strong value throughout a lot of the season, collectors lost hope on his future prospects and dropped his TT Auto value down to about 1/3 of it's peak price.

Jake Peavy's BC Ref RC card value trend was pretty clear. He had an awesome season, so his values were up in September. He then flopped in the final game of the season vs. the Rockies, blowing his team's chance to go to the postseason: his values dropped. Then he unanimously won the NL Cy Young. You guessed it: values back up again.

Part 2 coming soon!

2007-12-01T17:29:00.000-08:00

Who You Gonna Blame, the Player or the Team?

As a most-of-the-time starter last year on a struggling Boston team, Al Jefferson had a break-out season averaging 16 ppg & 10.9 rbg in 33.6 mpg. Despite his Celtics going 24-58, we saw Jefferson's hobby status elevate into star territory. Now, with the just-as-bad T-Wolves, he's continuing to improve and is posting up 20.7 ppg & 11.2 rpg in 36.5 mpg. This time though, his rookie values seem to be heading south, along with his team's record (2-12).

Maybe in order to reach that first hobby star level it's enough for the individual player to to do well, regardless of his team's performance. But to reach that next level and/or to even sustain their current star status, they also need to show that they can lead their team to success. One example favoring this theory is Kevin Garnett (ironically the player that Jefferson was traded for). KG averaged 22.1 ppg, 13.0 rpg & 4.6 apg over his last 3 years in Minnesota, but the team still had a 109-137 record. KG's 95-96 Finest RC, in turn, could be easily found for under $20 before this season. Now that he's leading the Celtics to success (and only averaging 20.1 ppg, 11.8 rpg & 4.0 apg), that same rookie card averaged $54.25 TAC for the month of November. Before the team had their first loss on 11/18, it was averaging $64.59, with a high of $87.55 (on 11/17).

Jefferson's 04-05 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999 averaged $38.30 TAC during the first half of Nov, then dropped to $31.83 in the second half, with it's most recent sales below $30. All this dropping in value and Jefferson is playing better than ever.

Jefferson is still very young (only 22 y.o.), and he will no doubt find the right situation to succeed in. Hopefully it won't take him as long as it did for KG to do so.

2007-11-25T22:00:00.000-08:00

What About the Pistons?

I received a comment in response to saying that the Celtics are the best team in the East, saying that I forgot about the Pistons. First of all, thank you for reading, and for giving your feedback. I didn't forgot about Detroit, but I do think that their time in the spotlight is coming to a close. They've been a dominant force in the East for several years now, but I don't see them beating a team like Boston in a playoff series (they did lose to the Cavs in last season's Conference Finals 4-2). Unlike the Spurs (who have successfully endured over the years, and continue to do so), who have received some youth-infusion with Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili, the Pistons pretty much have the same aging line-up (not to say that Billups, Hamilton, Prince & Wallace aren't all excellent players, especially when playing together).

I do think that Detroit will be in the playoffs this year, and with the few number of decent teams in the East, they should move past the first round (unless they falter into the #7 or #8 spot). But I don't see them going to the Championships. I could very well be wrong (wouldn't be the first time!), but I'm predicting the Celtics to win the East.

2007-11-25T13:53:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Leandro Barbosa

Leandro Barbosa became of hot hobby commodity last season, as he went on to average 18.1 ppg in 32.7 mpg, coming off the bench for the Suns. So far this season, he hasn't lost a beat. Through his first 12 games, he's averaging 19.1 ppg in 33.7 mpg, again most of the time coming off the bench. Collectors have definitely taken notice . I saw one of his 03-04 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #'d 225 sell for $275 TAC last week, up from $200 just 2 weeks earlier. I also saw an 03-04 Topps Rookie Photo Shoot Auto sell for $111 last week, up from $94 just 1 week before.

My favorite Barbosa rookie is still his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy #'d 1999. It's one of his few base rookies that show his extended signature (opposed to just "LB" or "LB#10"), and you can find them for pretty affordable prices ($15-20 TAC). His SPx RC peaked out last season in the $30's range, with a couple selling for $40+. I think that this card has the potential to reach $50+ this season, if he keeps up the hard work.

2007-11-23T01:36:00.000-08:00

The Mighty Celtics Trio

By adding two veteran stars, Kevin Garnett & Ray Allen, to a healthy Paul Pierce, the Celtics have seemingly transformed themselves into the team to beat in the East. While enroute to an 8-0 start this season, we witnessed KG's 95-96 Finest RC (his best base rookie) average $64.60 TAC through 11/17, with a high of $87.55 (on 11/17). Then came the team's first loss on 11/18. His Finest RC has dropped to an averge of around $51 since then. We need to keep in mind though, that for the past how many seasons, this card could be easily found for less than $20 TAC.

Ray Allen's best base rookie, his 96-97 Topps Chrome RC, has not experienced the same growth in value that KG's has. It's been a steady seller this season for around $10-15 TAC (before & after the Celtics' 11/18 loss). Since Allen has rookie-year autos (which KG doesn't), collectors seem to be going after those cards instead. Allen's two rookie-year autos are his 96-97 Skybox Autographics and Skybox Emerald Auto; both with BV of $60. Right before the season started, I saw one of his Emerald auto's sell for $24.04 TAC. I then saw one of his Autographics auto's sell for $116.49 on 11/13. That's quite an amazing jump (384%) for just a two-week period of time.Paul Pierce hasn't seen any significant changes in his rookie values (maybe because he wasn't a new addition to the team?). His 98-99 SP Authentic RC #'d 3500 has consistently sold in the mid $20's since the preseason. One card that should really garner some big bucks is his 98-99 Topps Auto (his only rookie-year auto), if you can find one. I've been keeping my eye out for one for the past couple of years, and haven't found any.

Barring any injuries, I believe that the Celtics will be able to overcome the reinvigorated red-hot Magic to finish the season #1 in the East. They may even have a chance to beat the Spurs or Suns, or whoever ends up winning the West. My hobby prediction is that KG will continue to benefit the most from this newly created super-team, with Allen & Pierce finally getting at least a little of the hobby attention that they've always deserved.

2007-11-22T13:42:00.000-08:00

Player Focus: Grant Hill

Grant Hill had a solid pre-season with the Suns, and has been averaging 14.9 ppg & 4.8 rpg in 34.9 mpg through his first 12 games of the regular season. Not too bad considering all that he's been through in the last several years. I'm just glad to see him back, healthy & playing well. Looking at the market, it would seem that collectors either still feel that Hill isn't playing up to expectation, or that his time has past and he is no longer hobby-viable. His 94-95 Finest RC, once a hobby must-have card, is only averaging around $7.50 TAC. Normally I would say this card is a steal at that price, but there is quite a bit of risk if you're planning on buying it as an investment. If you're just a Hill fan, go ahead and buy away!

2007-11-15T19:46:00.000-08:00

2007 Cy Young Winners

Earlier this month C.C. Sabathia stunned many with his AL Cy Young win over World Series Champ Josh Beckett. Today, Jake Peavy became the first unanimous NL winner since Randy Johnson did it in '02 (12th ever in NL history).

Sabathia's sole rookie-year Auto, his 99 Topps Traded Auto, was a pretty consistent seller throughout the season, ranging from $42-54 TAC. Before the season, you could find them for around $30-40. I've only seen one for sale so far this month, currently listed for $39.99 (+$2.50 S&H), ending on 11/21. Beckett's 99 Ultimate Victory RC experienced significant growth at the end of the season, jumping from around $20 to the $30's range in October, before settling into the $20-25 range this month. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 got a lot of hobby attention, jumping from $50 in September to the low $70's in October. Now they're selling for around $60 TAC.

Peavy's 01 Bowman Chrome Ref RC stayed in the $40-50 range for most of the season (no surprise since he was probably the most consistent pitcher in the majors this year), before dipping to around $38 in October, after he blew the tie-breaking Wild Card game against the Rockies. His 01 Topps Fusion Auto (his only rookie-year Auto) fell from around $160 in September, down to $107 in October.

For all three of these pitchers, their key rookies have become pretty scarce since the season ended. I'm guessing that prices will soften in the next few months (unless demand spikes with the holidays - well, maybe not with gas prices hitting record highs!), and there will be deals to be had for those who are patient. All three of these pitchers were listed on my "Top Pitcher Investments" posts back in July, on my blog & Sportslizard, so of course I think that all 3 of them will be baffling batters for years to come.

2007-11-12T20:02:00.000-08:00

Rookie Photo Shoot Autograph Cards

Up until this year, Topps had the lock on the "very unique" autographed cards from the Rookie Photo Shoot. Now Upper Deck has decided to get in into the game with their Rookie Debut Autographs, also signed at the Rookie Photo Shoot. They have print runs ranging from 77 to 130, and were inserted in packs of 07-08 Upper Deck, released last month.

Topps' inaugural set was introduced to the hobby in the 03-04 year, which turned out to be a prime choice of seasons with its stock of up-and-coming stars. The only downside was that it lacked the biggest rookie of that year, Lebron James (an Upper Deck auto exclusive). This set continued in 04-05 (again missing the top star of the class - Dwight Howard, another UD excl). In 05-06, they added some spark to the set with dual & triple Auto's (but it again missed the top star - Chris Paul, for the same reason). Last year, in 06-07, I would say that Topps had their biggest miss in the set's four-year history. It was missing Brandon Roy, Tyrus Thomas & LaMarcus Aldridge (I think all UD excl again).

I guess UD decided that it wasn't enough to just sign up the top stars from each class in exclusive Auto deals. They wanted to compete head-to-head and go after a piece of what little market share Topps still has in Basketball. I'm sure the Marketing team at UD did their homework and found that the Topps Rookie Photo Shoot set was still ranking pretty high in hobby stature, so naturally this would be their next course of action).

I'm not a collector of the Rookie Photo Shoot Autos, but I'm sure that those who are will jump all over this new offering from UD. There's a nice photo of the set in the November Beckett (pages 6-7). The big name missing is Greg Oden, who Topps signed an exclusive deal with, but since he's out for the season, I don't think it'll be that much of a turn-off for collectors (good try, but yet another miss for Topps!).

Topps had the right idea to insert these gems in their cheapest product line (which is probably heavily reliant on sales volume due to it's low pack price) in order to boost the brands' numbers. Kind of like how UD did with it's industry-pioneering game jerseys back in 97-98.

2007-11-06T19:40:00.001-08:00

New & Improved Dodgers?

I heard on the news yesterday that there was a possibility that Andruw Jones and/or Johan Santana had a chance of going to the Dodgers. I'm a huge Jones fan, and I'd be thrilled to see him flourish under the leadership of Joe Torre & Don Mattingly. Maybe he'd be able to get back to hitting 40+ HR/season, like he did not too long ago. And anyone who's read my past postings about pitchers knows that I think Santana is one of the best 30 & under aces in the game. How many other 28-year-olds have 1381 K's in their career thus far? Not many (if any).

Both of these stars have spent their entire careers with the same team, and both have experienced frustrations recently, stemming from disappointing team results. A change in scenery might do them good. Los Angeles needs a spark or two (or three...), and these players could provide what they're lacking.

Jim, you asked not too long ago about Jones' 95 Bowman's Best RC card. I think that the Dodgers would provide a good platform for Jones' hobby status to relaunch from. LA is definitely going to get more attention next season, so it'll be a perfect chance for him to rejuvenate his game. His BB RC has averaged in the $19-22 range for the past several months. I think that it's potential value is probably in the $30-40 range, short term (over the next year).

Santana's top rookies from 00, Finest & Bowman's Best, have held pretty steady in recent, selling in the $65-70 & $55-60 TAC range respectively. Under the right circumstances, I think that these cards could potentially approach the $100 mark.

2007-11-05T19:45:00.000-08:00

Jenkins Not Returning to Brewers; M's Stupid to Let Guillen Go?

I was sad to hear that the Brewers aren't bringing Geoff Jenkins back next season. After being drafted by Milwaukee in '95, and getting called up to the bigs in '98, he went on to hit 212 HR over his career there (2nd most in team history behind Robin Yount, who had 251). For a lot of years, it seemed like Jenkins was the only big hitter the Brewers had. Now that they have a very talented young line-up & are contenders for the NL Central division, they're dumping him. Early in the '07 season, I was thinking how great it must be for Jenkins to finally be surrounded by good hitters, after enduring a 636-820 team record in his 9 years leading up to this season (similar to the feeling I had for Todd Helton this year). I've always been somewhat of a fan of Jenkins, and followed his career hoping that he would gain some hobby recognition. Maybe he'll get his chance on a team that will appreciate his skills & experience.

This weekend I was reading that the Mariners decided to decline their '08 contract option for Jose Guillen. My first thought was WHY? Guillen hit .290 (4th on team) with 23 HR (2nd on team) & 99 RBI (2nd on team), helping the M's to an 88-74 record (best since '03). I remember him hitting well in clutch situations, sometimes winning games for them. It sounds like the team wants to give their up-and-coming star Adam Jones a shot in outfield next season, and with Ichiro & Raul Ibanez locked up, it could be kind of crowded with Guillen there too. Since Guillen can still exercise his option to stay, and it seems like he's really found a comfort zone in Seattle, maybe he'll still have a chance to remain. I think that another big reason for the team not exercising his option was his $9 million salary for '08.

Both of these guys' rookie cards from '96 are probably trading in the "commons" price range, and would be a risky buy, given their uncertain futures and mid-career ages. I personally would like to see both of them do well, and gain some sort of hobby interest. But, as we all know, every season brings in a new crop of young future stars, so the number of veteran players that can hold collectors' attention inevitably decreases to make room for them. So, unfortunately, I would say that their time in the hobby has probably passed, but I wish them luck all the same.

2007-11-03T10:20:00.000-07:00

NBA Expectations

With the first week of the season almost complete, we've already seen the Lakers blow out the Suns by 21 in Phoenix, Gilbert Arenas blog about beating the Celtics on 11/2 (and then failing to do so), and of course the Kobe drama has been a constant underlying media irritation for who knows how long. Some of the things that I'm waiting to see this year ar

Will Tyson Chandler finally up his scoring numbers to go along with his double-digit rebounding, so he can become the hobby star he was expected to be?
Will Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson & cast be able to hold off the Jazz to stay atop the Northwest Division?

Will Grant Hill turn out to be the missing piece of the puzzle that has kept the Suns from winning a Championship?

Carlos Boozer has started the season off strong, averaging 31 points & 15.5 rebounds in his first two games. Kind of reminicent of last season. Hopefully (unlike last season), he'll be able to maintain it & stay healthy throughout the year. Last season Boozer's cards experienced the roller coaster effect, jumping early on when he was playing well, then falling when he got hurt, and never fully rebounding after he came back.

Marcus Camby, one of the best defensive players in the league, is averaging 18 rebounds & 5.5 blocks in his first two games of the season. I think that most of the hobby attention will be centered around Melo & AI if Denver is successful this season. That should keep Camby's cards in the realm of affordability. I'm going to be keeping my eye out for deals on his 96-97 Skybox Autographics Auto & Emerald Auto, his only rookie-year autos.

Leandro Barbosa was one of my favorite up-and-comers last season. He'll probably still come off the bench this year (especially with the addition of Grant Hill), but I think it'll be good for him in the long run, when that day finally comes for him to start. Barbosa can drive to the hoop or shoot the three, and he's one of the fastest guys out there while dribbling the ball. He had 23 points last night against the Lakers (although a lot of them came when the game was pretty much over), shooting 10-for-14 FG & 3-for-5 from 3-PT. I like his 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #'d 1999. It's one of only a few base Auto rookies that showcase his extended signature (opposed to his "LB" or "LB#10" sig).

2007-10-30T19:35:00.000-07:00

Post-Season King of the Mound: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett was nearly flawless through his four '07 post-season starts, pitching 30 innings and allowing only 4 ER & 2 BB with 35 K's and a 1.20 ERA. In this World Series, he actually pitched better (in ERA, K's/9IP & BB/9IP) than he did in '03, when he won the WS MVP with the Marlins. Despite his modest regular-season ERA of 3.27 (6th in AL) and 194 K's (7th in AL), he should still be a close-to-consensus AL Cy Young award winner.

His 99 Ultimate Victory RC, which could regularly be found for less than $10 early in the season, started rising in value as the year progressed, averaging around $19 TAC in July, $24 in August, and then back down to $19 in September (despite going 4-1 for the month). Then came October. It averaged $30 for the month, with one sale going for $43.50 TAC after Boston won the World Series. His 00 SPx Auto #'d 1500 has also been a hot item. This card, which by the way is not his RC card, could be bought for around $40 at the end of the regular season. It averaged $68 in October, and I saw one sell for $162.50 on 10/28! I'm thinking that one was probably a glitch (either multiple bidders got carried away, or an inexperienced buyer didn't know the market), but still!

Now is not the time to buy Beckett's cards. They're probably either at or close to their peak, so if you didn't already buy, you missed the boat. You might want to look into picking up another Red Sox pitcher, who missed the post-season due to injury; Clay Buchholz. His 05 Bowman Chrome RC has dropped a lot since hitting a high of around $25-30 after his no-no. You could pick one up this month for $10-15 TAC.

*Interesting Boston Fact: When Babe Ruth was pitching for the Red Sox, he had a World Series record of 2-0, with a 0.87 ERA.

2007-10-27T17:40:00.000-07:00

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 3

02 UD Propsect Premiers Prince Fielder Auto XRC - Fielder had a nearly-MVP-type season, hitting 50 HR (1st in NL) & 119 RBI (T3rd in NL); only his .288 batting avg kept it from being a complete MVP season. His "original" hot-card, the 02 UD PP Auto XRC, was topping the $200 TAC mark at the beginning of summer, but fell to $185 in July, $148 in August, and $147 in September (despite his end-of-the-season rally, hitting .333 with 11 HR & 22 RBI that month). Even though Fielder kept up his homerun hitting, he lost a lot of hobby attention to his teammate Ryan Braun. I've only seen one of these cards sell in October, and it went for an all-season low of $108.54, on 10/21. The 23-year-old slugger should have many great seasons ahead of him, and this card will remain a classic collectors item for fans & investors alike.

03 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard Auto RC - Howard hit 47 HR & 136 RBI this season. Unfortunately, he also broke the single-season record for strike-outs, with 199. His top base rookie, 03 BB Auto RC, reached as high as the $500's range at one point, but fell to $380-400 through the summer, and settled at $370 in September. After the Phillies were knocked out the NLDS, the market for this card got even worse. In October, it's averaging $274 TAC. This might be the lowest point that I've seen it at. Can you imagine a guy hitting 47 HR (105 HR over the last two seasons!), and his best RC card actually drops in price? Talk about finicky buyers! Given the past price swings that we've seen, I would say that now might be a good time buy, since the value could easily almost double again in the future.

04 Bowman Chrome Felix Hernandez Auto RC - King Felix almost had his "break-out" season this year, but it was disrupted by injury early on. He finished with a decent 14-7 record and 3.92 ERA, which unfortunately translated into disappointment, since expectation was a lot higher after he began the season 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and 18 K's in 17 IP. His 04 BC Auto RC was selling close to the $200's range in April, but quickly fell while he was on the DL, and continued it's downward spiral after he returned and struggled to regain his pre-injury form. By June, it was averaging around $114 TAC, in July $112, in August $102, and by September $86. After the M's failed to reach the post-season, hobby interest in Felix's top rookie dropped off even more, averaging $76 in October. At 21 years old, why would anyone lose faith in this guy? I'm thinking that these are just minor setbacks in his path to stardom. Most pitchers aren't even in the majors at this age (he already has 2-1/2 seasons under his belt!).

2007-10-26T09:55:00.000-07:00

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 2

00 Bowman Grady Sizemore Auto - Sizemore is another player that had his ups & downs this season, and his 00 Bowman Auto followed suit. This card peaked early in the season, in the $500's range (remember when he started the season with 3 HR in his first 3 games?), then proceeded to fall every month thereafter. In June it averaged around $300, in July $270, in August $216, and then finally in September (his lowest HR & RBI month of the season) it hit rock bottom at $186. When the Indians entered the post-season, there was a renewed interest in Sizemore, and, despite his so-so hitting (.279 with 2 HR & 3 RBI), his Bowman Auto started to rise, averaging $276 in October before Cleveland was eliminated from the ALCS, and then dropped back down to $215 immediately after their exit.
01 Bowman Chrome Jake Peavy Ref RC - Peavy, the best pitcher in the NL (in my opinion), had a terrific season, leading the NL in W's, K's & ERA (the triple crown of pitching). Throughout the sesaon, his 01 BC Ref RC was a pretty consistent seller at the $40-50 TAC range, only entering the $50-60 range a couple of times. His blown start at the end of the season (unfortunately to decide who would go on to the post-season) dropped his hobby status quite a bit. In October, this card averaged $38; down from $46.80 in September. I would rate it a strong buy if you can pick one up in the $30-35 range (which is possible).
02 Bowman Chrome Draft Cole Hamels RC - Hamels had a very good season, going 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA & 177 K's in 183-1/3 IP, to help the Phillies slip into the post-season. Hamels' 02 BCD RC peaked in June at around $27 TAC, then fell to $22 in July, $21 in August (he missed the 2nd half of Aug/1st half of Sep due to injury) and then down to $16 in September. He finished the regular season by tossing 8 shut-out innings against the Nationals (with 1 BB & 13 K's), and looked ready for the NLDS. Unfortunately, they faced the red-hot Rockies and became just 3 more notches in Colorado's amazing 21-1 run to the World Series. It looks like buyers have recognized the potential in Hamels, and are picking up his BCD RC while prices are low. In October, it's averaging $19.70 TAC.

2007-10-21T00:56:00.000-07:00

MLB Season '07 - Market Movers Part 1

Here's a look at some of the rookie cards that experienced big increases or decreases toward the end of the '07 regular season:

99 Topps Traded Alfonso Soriano Auto - Soriano had his ups & downs this season, but ended hot in September. For the month, he hit .320 with 14 HR (42% of his season total) & 27 RBI (39% of his season total). His 99 TT Auto was averaging around $103 TAC during that time, and I thought it would shoot up even higher when he continued to tear it up in the post-season. Boy was I wrong. As the Cubs got swept out of the NLDS by the D-Backs, Soriano hit a terrible .143 BA with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 extra base hits & 4 K's. As a result, that same rookie year auto fell to an average price of $71.50 TAC in October (the last sale I saw went for $66.99 on 10/14). This off-season is probably a good time to buy Soriano's key cards, as they will surely go back up when he gets back on track in '08.
99 Topps Traded Carlos Pena Auto - Carlos Pena was one of the only bright spots in the D-Rays' offense this season. He deservedly won the Comeback Player of the Year award, after hitting an amazing 46 HR & 121 RBI. His 99 TT Auto was on fire late in the season, selling in the $55-60 TAC range through mid September. Then, it suddenly dropped down to the $18-30 range, for no apparent reason. He finished the season strong, hitting .318 with 13 HR & 29 RBI for the month, so I'm not sure why his hobby interest fell through the floor like that. My guess is that either collectors are viewing him as a one-season wonder, or, at 29-year-of-age, they'd rather focus their buying on some of the younger up-and-comers. I'm thinking that if he can show the same level of play in '08, at least some of the buyers out there will help to re-elevate his hobby stature.
00 Bowman John Lackey Auto - Lackey had a great season, going 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA (both career bests). Then came the post-season. Before the ALDS series with the Red Sox started, I remember hearing the TV commentator say that Lackey has never had much luck against Boston. I was thinking, "Nah, he'll do just fine. He's coming off of a career-season, so he should be able to hold his own against Josh Beckett." I guess I had too much faith in the Angels. After getting beat in game 1, 4-0, Lackey's 00 Bowman Auto immediately dropped from averaging $36 TAC in September, down to the low $20's. I think that because there was that known roadblock for Lackey (the Red Sox), he really needed to show that he could beat them in order to justify his star status in the hobby. When he failed to do so, that was pretty much it for him (at least until next season). If you want to pick up some his cards, now might be a good time to buy. Personally, I'm not a Lackey collector.

More to come!

2007-10-17T21:40:00.000-07:00

Rockies NL Champs; What about Todd Helton?

That's a good question Jim. I was wondering the same thing. I'm thinking that Todd Helton won't experience the growth in hobby interest that Matt Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki have. Helton's level of play has really dropped off over the past 3 seasons (in every offensive category), and his contributions this post-season haven't been significant enough to reignite his hobby spark.

I remember those those days when his 93 Topps Traded RC was a hot commodity. Now, you can pick one up for less than $10 TAC. Since this is his only rookie card, and he is still one of the best hitters over the last decade (.332 career BA), I would say that this card remains a good investment, and a very nice piece in any collection.

Helton still has a chance to join the younger stars in the spotlight, if he can have a strong performance in the World Series. Let's hope that he can do better than his .154, 0 HR & 1 RBI through the NLDS & NLCS thus far. His interview after game 4 was quite moving, and it would be nice to see the Rockies pull off an upset for their veteran star.

2007-10-17T19:16:00.000-07:00

NLCS Aftermath

The day after the Rockies eliminated the D-Backs from the NLCS, a Micah Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC sold for $7.55 TAC (as expected), down from it's average of $11-17 before game 4. On the other side, a 99 Bowman Chrome Matt Holliday RC sold for $22.67 TAC, up from it's average of $12-18 before game 4. No surprise there either.

Looking forward, I think that both Holliday & Troy Tulowitzki will experience even more hobby growth, and if Colorado miraculously wins the World Series, you can expect to be paying around $30+ for the Holliday's BC RC, and $90+ for Tulowitzki's 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399.

2007-10-15T23:09:00.000-07:00

Owings, D-Backs Fail to Avoid Sweep

On Monday night, Micah Owings had a good start, pitching 3 scoreless innings, and scoring off of Conor Jackson's RBI single to give the D-Backs a 1-0 lead. Then, in the bottom of the 4th, Owings gave up back-to-back walks, followed by a 2-run, 2-out double (it was almost like Rockies' manager Clint Hurdle had seen the future in order to have known to make that change at that time). Earlier that inning, Owings had the wind knocked out of him while diving for a ground ball, which could at least partially explain his downfall thereafter. After a fumbled grounder by Jackson, a Kaz Matsui RBI single and a 3-run Matt Holliday home run, Owings exited the game, down 6-1.

I guess Owings' 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC won't be jumping to new heights anytime soon. It'll be a good time to buy his cards during the off-season, as they'll probably fall to very affordable levels. Matt Holliday's rookies should definitely experience a boost, especially after winning the NLCS MVP award. His 99 Bowman Chrome RC has been selling in the $12-18 range over the past week, with the refractor version averaging around $50 TAC.

The Rockies' shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, has already been heating up in the hobby. His 05 Topps Rookie Cup Auto RC #'d 399 is averaging $63.75 for the month, with the most recent sales in the $70-75 range. It was selling in the low $40's just a month ago.

2007-10-14T21:57:00.000-07:00

Micah Owings Gets His Chance in Crucial NLCS Game

On Sunday, the Rockies beat the D-Backs 4-1, to take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS. Micah Owings, the 25-year-old Arizona rookie pitcher, will get his chance in game 4 to show if he can live up the hype from the regular season, and establish his place in the hobby. Owings has been known for his hitting as much as his pitching (*see related Owings posts on 9/28, 9/20, 9/6 & 8/24), and the D-Backs are probably hoping that he can help them win from both the mound & the plate, since they've been outscored 12-4 in the first 3 games of the series.

His 05 Topps Chrome Update Auto RC (only Auto RC) averaged around $15 TAC in August, then fell to $10 in September (after the hype died down), and is currently trading in the $11-17 range. I think that once people saw his name on the roster, anticipation started to rise for his upcoming post-season debut, which is what has fueled prices to rise over the past couple of weeks. If he can help the D-Backs move on to game 5, his cards should experience an immediate jump again. His 05 Topps Chrome Update Ref Auto #'d 500 has been a consistent seller from August through now, for around $20 TAC. This card will also experience a nice jump in value, should his performance meet it's high expectations.

We'll see how everything shakes out on Monday night when Owings squares off against the Rockies' rookie pitcher, Franklin Morales. I'm not a fan of either team, but I'd prefer to see Arizona win this one, to avoid yet another sweep this post-season.

Oh, and if he can't get it done, then I guess you'll be able to pick up his TCU Auto RC for less than $10, and hope that it'll rise in '08 when he starts pitching again!

2007-10-13T07:47:00.000-07:00

Player Focus: Stephen Drew

Stephen Drew, the younger brother of J.D. Drew, had a pretty unimpressive first full regular season in '07, hitting just .238 with 12 HR, 60 RBI & a .313 OBP. Then came the post-season. In the D-Backs' NLDS sweep of the Cubs, Drew hit .500 (4 extra base hits) with 2 HR, 4 RBI & a .500 OBP. So far in the NLCS though, he hasn't been as fortunate. In his team's first two loses, he's only hitting .250, with 0 HR & 0 RBI.

Drew's 05 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto RC is still selling at a pretty affordable price level. I saw a refractor version #'d 500 sell this past week for $67.76 TAC; not bad when you consider that Ryan Braun's equivalent card from the same year selling for $180-200.

Drew is only 24 years old, and he's part of a young, up-and-coming D-Backs squad who should be competing for a World Series championship in the years to come. My hat comes off to Arizona for making it this far. All along I had expected the Padres to take the NL West.

2007-10-11T23:12:00.000-07:00

LDS Bright Spots

Grady Sizemore, the Indians' lead-off hitter, had his ups & downs during the regular season, ending up with a modest .277 BA, 24 HR, 78 RBI & 33 SB. In the ALDS against the Yankees, he was definitely more on the up-side. In those 4 games, he hit .375 with an OBP of .524, 1 HR & 1 RBI. Sizemore will be key to Cleveland's success in the ALCS vs. the Red Sox. His coveted 00 Bowman Auto was a hot commodity at the beginning of the season, but started to consistently fall thereafter. In June it averaged around $300 TAC, then fell to $270 in July, $216 in August and $186 in September. The hobby has already recognized his post-season improvement, with his most recent sale (that I've seen) going for $360 on 10/7. There's another auction ending on 10/16, which should give us a better indication of the direction this card is truly going in.
Manny Ramirez had a great showing in the ALDS series victory over the Angels. He hit .375 with a .615 OBP, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 5 BB, proving to the baseball world that he's back at 100% and ready to help lead his team to another pennant. I've already said in the past that Ramirez is one of the most underrated players in the hobby. Well, he still is! His 92 Bowman RC is still selling at rock-bottom price levels. Over the summer, it averaged in the $12-15 TAC range, and then fell to an all-time low of $8.20 in September. Who would've thought that you could buy the best rookie card (which happens to be a part of a pretty expensive set) of a future 500 HR Club & HOF'er for such a cheap price? So far in October, prices seem to be going up slightly, with an average TAC of around $10. Ramirez's key rookie cards are still a steal at current price levels, and are sure to increase as he continues to punish opposing pitchers.

2007-10-11T22:26:00.000-07:00

Response to Question: Hobby Potential of Andruw Jones

Thanks for the question Jim. I'm a huge Andruw Jones fan (been one since his call-up over a decade ago), and it's been disappointing to see his two rookie cards, 95 Bowman's Best & Bowman, plummet in value over the past year or so. Jones had a very sub-par '07 season, batting .222 (career avg .263), with 26 HR (career avg 34/162 game season) and 94 RBI (career avg 103/162 game season), and the Braves are probably thinking that his best years are now behind him. But, keep in mind that he will most likely be a 500 HR club member by the time he retires (he currently has 368), and he's only 30 years old. I think that whatever team he ends up with will be able to benefit from Jones' batting skills for at least 5 more good years. He's been much healthier than a lot of other players, missing a total of only 52 games in the last 11 seasons (played in 97.1% of the regular season games).

Jones' Bowman's Best RC was averaging around $21.50 TAC throughout the summer, and then fell again to around $18.80 in September. So far in October, it's averaging about $19. His Bowman RC was averaging around $13-18 TAC throughout the summer, and fell to a dismal $11 average in September. So far in October, you can find them in the $11-13 range.

I do think that Jones' rookies have a chance to rebound, initially depending on what team he goes to (i.e. depending on the team's strength, his role within the team, etc.), and then once more during the '08 season (as long as his performance rebounds also).

The $ value of Jones' cards don't really matter to me, since I'll probably never sell the ones that I have, but I would like to see his hobby status raised back up to where he deserves to be.

Thanks again for the question!

2007-10-08T19:30:00.000-07:00

LDS Meltdowns

Alfonso Soriano ended the season on such a great note, hitting .320 with 14 HR & 27 RBI in September. I thought momentum would carry his hot streak into the post-season, but unfortunately he fell flat, hitting a dismal 2-for-14 (.143) with 0 extra base hits, 1 BB & 4 K's. Soriano's 99 Topps Traded Auto was selling in the $100-105 range last month, but I think that it'll probably drop down below $100 TAC as he & rest of the Cubs head off to an earlier-than-expected off-season.
Angels superstar Vladimir Guerrero had a decent regular season, hitting .324 with 27 HR & 125 RBI, helping his team to the AL West title. Then came the ALDS. The Angels had such a poor offensive showing against the Red Sox, and Vlady was no exception. He hit 2-for-10 (.200) with 0 extra base hits, 1 BB and 0 K's (only bright spot). His 05 Bowman's Best RC is averaging around $31 TAC in so far in october, down from $35 in September. I expect it to continue to drop through the off-season, down to around the $18-25 range.

Which players are more valuable in the hobby: those that excel in the regular season, but flop in the post-season, or those who are ok in the regular season, and then explode in the post-season? Of course the true challenge is to find the players who can do both. A topic for a future post...

2007-10-07T14:01:00.000-07:00

Unsung Hero: Brandon Webb

All season I've been writing about how Jake Peavy is the best pitcher in the NL (if not the entire league), while another ace (who's team beat out Peavy's Padres for he NL West title) was also putting together a strong season. Brandon Webb, Arizona's 28-year-old RHP, ended the regular season with 18 W's (2nd in NL; career best), a 3.01 ERA (2nd in NL) and 194 K's (4th in NL; career best). He also had a great outing in game 1 of the NLDS, pitching 7 strong innings and allowing just 4 hits & 1 run, with 9 K's to shut down the Cubs (the only extra base hit that he gave up that game was a double to fellow pitcher Carlos Zambrano).

I haven't been watching any of Webb's cards on a regular basis, but I do know that he hasn't received that much hobby attention for a while (I sold all of my Webb rookies a couple of years ago). Webb has been pretty consistent throughout his 5-year career, maintaining his ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (career 3.22). I think that he could have potential as a hobby star, but not as much as guys like Peavy or C.C. Sabathia.

Thanks for the comment Jim, reminding me about Webb. He definitely does deserve mentioning!

2007-10-06T15:00:00.000-07:00

A New Strike-Out King: Ryan Howard

Phillies slugger Ryan Howard has been a beast at the plate, hitting 47 HR & 136 RBI this year (giving him 105 HR & 285 RBI in his first two full seasons in the majors!). He also accomplished another amazing feat this season, one for which he is now enshrined in the record books; the single-season strike-out record (199). Adam Dunn must be feeling a little sigh of relief, since he previously held the top two spots for single-season strike-outs, with 195 (in '04) and 194 (in '06).

Last season, on average, Howard struck out every 2.66 at-bats. This season, that average jumped to every 3.21 at-bats. I'm sure that the Phillies' batting staff will be working with him to reduce those numbers for next season, but hopefully his long-ball production won't suffer as a result.

Despite Howard's spectacular HR & RBI display, it seems like his strike-outs & mediocre batting average have weighed on his card values. His 01 UD Prospect Premiers XRC ended the season averaging around $20 TAC, down from $22 in August & $26 in July. His 03 Bowman's Best Auto RC averaged $371 in September, down from $400 in August & $388 in July. With the Phillies on the brink of elimination in the NLDS, I don't expect Howard's cards to rebound this year (unless they can pull-off a miraculous comeback, led by Howard's big bat).